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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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29 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking CO₂ storage simulations: Results from the 11 th Society of Petroleum Engineers Comparative Solution Project

The 11 th Society of Petroleum Engineers Comparative Solution Project (shortened SPE11 herein) benchmarked simulation tools for geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage. A total of 45 groups from leading research institutions and industry across the globe signed up to participate, with 18 ultimately contributing valid results that were included in the comparative study reported here. This paper summarizes the SPE11 results. A comprehensive introduction and qualitative discussion of the submitted data are provided, together with an overview of online resources for accessing the full depth of data. A global metric for analyzing the relative distance between submissions is proposed and used to conduct a quantitative analysis of the submissions. This analysis attempts to statistically resolve the key aspects influencing the variability between submissions. The study shows that the major qualitative variation between the submitted results is related to thermal effects, dissolution-driven convective mixing, and resolution of facies discontinuities. Moreover, a strong dependence on grid resolution is observed across all three versions of the SPE11. However, our quantitative analysis suggests that the observed variations are predominantly influenced by factors not documented in the technical responses provided by the participants. We therefore identify that unreported variations due to human choices within the process of setting up, conducting, and reporting on the simulations underlying each SPE11 submission are at least as impactful as the computational choices reported.

Nordbotten, Jan M. [Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Norw↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prevalence and scalable control of localized networks

The ability to control network dynamics is essential for ensuring desirable functionality of many technological, biological, and social systems. Such systems often consist of a large number of network elements, and controlling large-scale networks remains challenging because the computation and communication requirements increase prohibitively fast with network size. Here, we introduce a notion of network locality that can be exploited to make the control of networks scalable, even when the dynamics are nonlinear. We show that network locality is captured by an information metric and is almost universally observed across real and model networks. In localized networks, the optimal control actions and system responses are both shown to be necessarily concentrated in small neighborhoods induced by the information metric. This allows us to develop localized algorithms for determining network controllability and optimizing the placement of driver nodes. This also allows us to develop a localized algorithm for designing local feedback controllers that approach the performance of the corresponding best global controllers, while incurring a computational cost orders-of-magnitude lower. Here, we validate the locality, performance, and efficiency of the algorithms in Kuramoto oscillator networks, as well as three large empirical networks: synchronization dynamics in the Eastern US power grid, epidemic spreading mediated by the global air-transportation network, and Alzheimer’s disease dynamics in a human brain network. Taken together, our results establish that large networks can be controlled with computation and communication costs comparable to those for small networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Resilient Power and Energy Systems: Progress, Prospects, and Future Avenues

In recent years, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has garnered substantial attention in the context of enhancing resilience in power and energy systems. Resilience, characterized by the ability to withstand, absorb, and quickly recover from natural disasters and human-induced disruptions, has become paramount in ensuring the stability and dependability of critical infrastructure. This comprehensive review delves into the latest advancements and applications of DRL in enhancing the resilience of power and energy systems, highlighting significant contributions and key insights. The exploration commences with a concise elucidation of the fundamental principles of DRL, highlighting the intricate interplay among reinforcement learning (RL), deep learning, and the emergence of DRL. Furthermore, it categorizes and describes various DRL algorithms, laying a robust foundation for comprehending the applicability of DRL. The linkage between DRL and power system resilience is forged through a systematic classification of DRL applications into five pivotal dimensions: dynamic response, recovery and restoration, energy management and control, communications and cybersecurity, and resilience planning and metrics development. This structured categorization facilitates a methodical exploration of how DRL methodologies can effectively tackle critical challenges within the domain of power and energy system resilience. The review meticulously examines the inherent challenges and limitations entailed in integrating DRL into power and energy system resilience, shedding light on practical challenges and potential pitfalls. Additionally, it offers insights into promising avenues for future research, with the aim of inspiring innovative solutions and further progress in this vital domain.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Life Cycle Analysis of Scalable Single-Junction and Tandem Perovskite Solar Cell (PSC) Systems

Efficient, low-cost solar cells based upon perovskites have the potential to transform the US and global energy portfolio and improve energy security if they can be manufactured in an environmentally sustainable manner. However, previous life cycle analyses (LCA) of perovskite solar cells (PSC) used lab recipes to project the environmental impact of industrial PSC production – using materials and processes that may not be representative of industrial productions due to high material waste and complex synthesis – and such studies were limited to a few single-junction technologies. Thus, the goal of this project was threefold: a) to review the most promising for industrial production single-junction and tandem PSC technologies, b) to build life-cycle materials inventories that reflect scalable production of these technologies, and c) to conduct comprehensive life-cycle analysis of these technologies and compare their environmental impact with those of established commercial technologies. In response, this project identified challenges for fabrication transitioning from laboratory to sustainable industrial production, developed life-cycle inventory (LCI) data for scaling to industrial production four promising single-junction and three tandem PSC systems and produced life-cycle-investigations using, as metrics, a complete spectrum of energy, environmental and ecological impact indicators. Special focus was given to the use of lead, silver and indium in PSC. The project used the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology as standardized by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), ISO standards 14040 and 14044, and the International Energy Agency PVPS Task 12 LCA guidelines. LCA allows the calculation of a number of energy and environmental and impact categories, including energy cumulative energy demand (CED), global warming potential (GWP), human toxicity potential (HTP), eco-toxicity potential (ETP), abiotic resource depletion potential (ADP), acidification potential (AP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), photochemical oxidation potential (POP), eutrophication potential (EP). In addition to those, we calculated the Energy Pay-Back Time (EPBT) and the Energy Return On Investment (EROI). We provide LCA impacts for complete perovskite PV systems – including balance of system components – installed at three irradiation levels and considering reference and future potential module efficiencies. Finally, a sensitivity analysis on perovskite lifetime has been performed, considering 10, 20 and 30 years. Contribution analysis of the impacts of each material and layer of PSC shows, that the use of Pb in metalorganic PSC does not result in significant environmental impacts as the major contributions to environmental indicators arise from the use of Ag and encapsulation materials. Solution-based PSC manufacturing was found to be less impactful to the environment than vapor-based fabrication, and roll-to-roll (RtR) printing uses less energy and generates the lowest emissions. PSC produced with RtR manufacturing could reach the same Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) as that of crystalline-Si PV within 12 years of life, whereas the most energy demanding spray coating on rigid substrates, would require a 20-yr life to match the EROI of 30-yr lasting silicon PV. This work lays the foundation for sustainability investigations in a comparative context of large-scale production and deployment of PSC. The results of this project have the potential to have a significant impact on the future of PV manufacturing, by providing industry, policy-makers, and academia with insights necessary to choose which, if any, lead-based solar cell life cycles are environmentally sustainable.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automating the Analysis of Large Language Models Responses through Zero-Shot Question Answering

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant potential in various applications, yet their evaluation, particularly in zero-shot question answering scenarios, remains a challenging task. In this study, our objective was to explore precision metrics for Large Language Models (LLM) and design and implement a software pipeline to automatically evaluate LLMs' outputs under zero-shot question answering. Zero-shot question answering involves a model providing answers to questions about topics it hasn't seen during training. It leverages the principles of zero-shot learning by relying on semantic understanding and generalization from related knowledge. The data used was metadata from medical databases on congenital heart disease. We explored eleven LLM metrics and selected three for our evaluation: BLEU, BERTScore, and MoverScore. BLEU calculates a score based on the overlap of n-grams (contiguous sequences of n items, typically words) between the machine-generated translation and the reference translations. Higher BLEU scores indicate better correspondence between the machine-generated and human-generated translations. BERTScore is a metric used to evaluate the quality of machine-generated text by measuring the similarity of token embeddings produced by BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) between the generated text and reference text. MoverScore is a metric that quantifies the dissimilarity between the distributions of word embeddings from machine-generated text and reference text, emphasizing semantic similarity over exact token overlap. We also introduced HBKI, a composite metric summarizing these approaches. We tested five models —GPT-3, Llama-2, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Solar 10.7B, and Mixtral-8x7b. Our software pipeline, designed and implemented using Object-Oriented Programming principles, allows users to customize the selection and extraction of features for topics of interest in their own research. Our results show that MoverScore delivered the most precise evaluation of the LLM's outputs, while Mixtral-8x7b achieved the best overall performance in extracting metadata from the databases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Method to Investigate Cognitive Aging Effects in Nuclear Operations Using the Rancor Microworld Simulator

Many nuclear power plant (NPP) operators are close to, or at retirement age. Since NPP operators are responsible for tasks that engage different and complex cognitive abilities, human factors researchers recently called for the need to examine cognitive aging effects and potential interactions with modernized control rooms. One way control rooms are being modernized is by replacing paper-based procedures with computer-based procedures (CBPs). This paper outlines a method for testing preference and usability of three types of CBPs as a function of age, in simulated NPP operations. The Rancor Microworld Simulator will be used, which mimics an NPP control room, allowing novices to learn to perform operator tasks quickly. The experiment will have two independent variables: age (young and old) and CBP-type (Type 1, Type 2, and Type 3). The three types of CBPs vary in levels of embedded instrumentation and controls. Adults aged 18–25 years (young group) and =60 years (older group) will be recruited from the general population. The dependent variables will be preference and usability metrics via survey and simulator logs. All participants will perform two scenario types (startup and loss of feedwater operations) and will be randomly assigned to one type of CBP to guide them through the scenario. Analyses of variance (ANOVAs) will be used to determine whether there is a main effect of age and any age x CBP-type interactions on the preference and usability dependent variables.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Method for Measuring Coupled Individual and Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards

Although models of social vulnerability to environmental hazards are commonly developed to support policy interventions in emergencies and disasters, their utility is hindered by a lack of contextual information on individuals exposed to and affected by hazards. We develop a novel approach to model social vulnerability that couples individuals and their varying forms of protective capacity with the social fabric of the communities in which they reside. The backbone of our model is the Public-Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), a product of the U.S. Census Bureau that preserves a representative sample of completed responses to the American Community Survey (ACS). The PUMS enables us to understand the full range of individual protective capacities against a hazard in an exposed area, which we term individual vulnerability profiles (IVPs). In this case, we examine IVPs in the Coney Island-Brighton Beach section of New York City, which suffered severe impacts during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. To manage the large number of unique IVPs in Coney Island-Brighton Beach, we perform a segmentation analysis to generalize them into thematic cohort vulnerability profiles (CVPs) representing a typology of vulnerable people in Coney Island-Brighton Beach during Sandy. From synthetic populations of CVPs, we then estimate how individuals in varying housing types were coexposed to Sandy at the census tract level by classifying these areas into community social vulnerability profiles (SVPs). Our results provide a topology of social vulnerability that simultaneously links individual, community, and population-wide concerns, enabling a more holistic understanding of resources and interventions beneficial to human security during events like Sandy than is attainable with area-level metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Safety in Artificial Intelligence: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. National Labs and Beyond

This report discusses the importance of the critical and underexplored topic of artificial intelligence (AI) safety, as highlighted during the “Strategy Alignment on AI Safety” workshop convened at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in April 2024. Through a summary of keynote talks, panel discussions, and breakout sessions, world-leading AI safety experts from academic, industry, national labs, and government agencies clearly agree on the need for and importance of large-scale investments for research and capabilities in AI safety. With the field innovating at unprecedented rates, there is increasing urgency to develop novel evaluation methodologies that allow full considerations of risks/threats of AI technologies in different domains. Quantitative metrics and effective methodologies that can evaluate and audit the “safeness” of how a given AI technology is trained, deployed, or regulated are, at best, nascent for certain scenarios or, more commonly, nonexistent. This maturation gap presents the possibility of serious threats to national security, and further inaction may have serious consequences. Additionally, the gap between the public’s and research community’s perceptions of AI risks/rewards is significant. While numerous voices from the AI community have expressed concern that the risks could be so high that future AI systems could inflict extinction-level damage to humanity if deployed incorrectly, the public largely is aware only of risk in low-impact scenarios. This discrepancy highlights the crucial need for researchers to articulate to governmental bodies what, why, and when various AI risks matter as part of motivating funding requests. Thus, the call to action for this community is to pursue AI safety as a “Big Science” project on a scale comparable to the Manhattan Project. High risks and high payoffs are on the table, but safe AI is a fast-moving target, and large-scale investments are needed to guide development of this technology in a responsible way. We highlight the need for a multilayered solution combining the development of new methods and algorithmic approaches to mitigate threats with an active participation of the government(s) in setting high industry standards and regulations based on state-of-the-art technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories have served as leading institutions for scientific innovation in the U.S. for more than 70 years. Drawing on their expertise in the AI community and their history of safeguarding critical and sensitive information, and as we look to the future, national labs are the best choice for evaluating and safeguarding AI technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Perspectives on future research directions in green manufacturing for discrete products

With the increasing concern due to climate change caused by a higher atmospheric concentration of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases, reducing environmental impact is becoming more important for every part of society. Manufacturing is responsible for a significant amount of energy/material consumption and environmental burden and, therefore, has a great opportunity to reduce its impact through green manufacturing. Green manufacturing presents opportunities across the manufacturing enterprise to increase the efficient usage of energy and material resources. These opportunities include designing products to consume fewer materials and energy during manufacturing and use, incorporating more efficient manufacturing processes, streamlining and optimizing manufacturing schedules and plans, and circularizing products. The goal of this paper will be to provide a perspective from the authors on the opportunities that exist within green manufacturing for discrete products through a review of pertinent topics and future directions. The paper will focus on processes, manufacturing equipment, manufacturing systems, recovering value at a product’s end-of-life, and additional thoughts that include metrics and indicators, techno-economic assessment, and a discussion of efficiency and effectiveness. Key findings from this review include a need for social indicators and renewable energy considerations in scheduling and process planning, integrating Industry 4.0 into circular economy along with social and institutional dimensions, consistency in the ability to measure and conceptualize metrics and indicators, a detailed evaluation of the life cycle impacts and cost of Addit Manuf, and more human and environment-oriented considerations for smart manufacturing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗