Sensitivity Analysis of CTF models Impacting Dryout and Post-CHF Modeling Accuracy
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Kumar, Vineet [ORNL] (ORCID:000000029240025X)↗
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Simulated meteorological impacts of offshore wind turbines and sensitivity to the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy
Offshore wind energy projects are currently in development off the east coast of the United States and may influence the local meteorology of the region. Wind power production and other commercial uses in this area are related to atmospheric conditions, and so it is important to understand how future wind plants may change the local meteorology. In the absence of measurements of potential wind plant impacts on meteorology, simulations offer the next-best possible insight into wake effects on boundary layer height, temperature, fluxes, and wind speeds. However, simulation tools that capture these effects offer multiple options for representing the amount of turbine-added turbulence that may impact assessments of micrometeorological effects. To explore this sensitivity, we compare 1 year of simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with and without wind plants incorporated, focusing on the lease area south of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The simulations with wind plants are repeated to include both the maximum and minimum amounts of added turbulence to provide bounds on the potential impacts. We assess changes in wind speeds, 2 m temperature, surface heat flux, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and boundary layer height during different stability classifications and ambient wind speeds over the entire year and compare results for the degree of added turbulence in the wind plant simulations. Because the wake behavior may be a function of boundary layer stability, in this paper, we also present a machine learning algorithm to quantify the area and distance of the wake generated by the wind plant. This analysis enables us to identify the relationship between wake extent and boundary layer height. We find that hub-height wind speed is reduced within and downwind of the wind plant, with the strongest impacts occurring during stable conditions and faster wind speeds in region 3 of the turbine power curve, although impacts lessen as wind speeds increase past 15 m s−1. In contrast, wind speeds near the surface decrease when no turbine-added turbulence is included but can increase for stably stratified conditions when 100 % of possible TKE is included in the simulations. TKE increases at hub height in the simulations with added TKE for all stability classes, suggesting that atmospheric stability does not immediately modify the TKE generated by turbines. Negligible changes in hub-height TKE manifest in the simulations without the added TKE. At the surface, TKE increases in the simulations with maximum added turbulence only for unstable conditions. In the no-added-turbulence simulations, surface TKE decreases slightly in neutral and unstable simulations. Differences in 2 m temperatures and surface heat fluxes are small but vary considerably with atmospheric stability and the amount of added TKE. Boundary layer heights increase within the wind plant when turbine-added turbulence is included and decrease slightly downwind during stable conditions. In contrast, with no added turbulence, the boundary layer height is in general reduced in stable conditions with wind speeds less than 15 m s −1 and slightly increased in neutral conditions. Finally, shallower upwind boundary layer heights tend to correlate with larger wake areas and distances, though other factors likely also play a role in determining the extent of the wind plant wake. These simulation-based results provide a bound for micrometeorological impacts of wind plant wakes: simulations that couple the atmosphere to the ocean may reduce these impacts, and we await observational verification.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Impact of Increased Monte Carlo Parameters on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE [Slides]
For both models and tests, NPG and NSK parameters have only small effects on calculated sensitivity coefficients. Outside of NPG=100, only differences in CFP affected sensitivity coefficient values. Fission reactions ( 235 U) require more NPG values than scattering ( 238 U) reactions – more particles are needed to locate fission sources in the model more accurately. This work confirms the previous results with the IFP method where the CFP parameter has the greatest impact on calculated sensitivity coefficients. While immediate work focuses on fast systems, other model specifications may require a different set of MC parameters.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The Impact of Reconstruction in Pandora on Sensitivity to the Low-Energy Excess Signal at MicroBooNE
With the MicroBooNE collaboration’s first low-energy excess (LEE) searches complete and twice the amount of data to analyse in future iterations, it is imperative that we begin considering the potential analysis upgrades that can be achieved, such as those in the event reconstruction level. This note identifies the areas in Pandora reconstruction framework that could be improved upon, and evaluates their impact through cheated selections using MicroBooNE’s exclusive pionless LEE search as a benchmark. Vertexing and proton reconstruction improvements are demonstrated to have significant potential benefits in terms of sensitivity to the LEE signal and thus should be prioritised. Sensitivity projections for the full 10.1e20 POT are 3.2σ and 2.3σ for vertex and proton cheated selections respectively, and 3.3σ for the combined effect of both, compared to 2.1σ in the absence of the cheated selections.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Impact of Increased Monte Carlo Parameters on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Mitigating humidity interference in chemiresistive hydrogen sensors through hydrophobic surface functionalization
Chemiresistive gas sensors based on semiconductor metal oxides, such as tin dioxide (SnO₂), are indispensable for detecting and monitoring toxic gases and pollutants, making them critical components in industrial and environmental applications. To enhance their performance, the metal oxides are loaded with noble metals such as palladium (Pd). However, ambient humidity poses a significant challenge to their performance. The presence of adsorbed water molecules on the oxide surface can considerably impair sensor sensitivity and overall performance. To address this issue, in this paper, we report on the application of an ultrathin, hydrophobic layer of hexamethyldisilazane to the surface of a Pd/SnO 2 sensor. This study investigates the influence of hydrophobic surface modifications on the metal oxide interface, focusing on their impact on sensor sensitivity and selectivity. The resulting sensor exhibits superior hydrogen sensing capabilities, operating effectively at low temperatures even in high humidity environments. Furthermore, the hydrophobic modification reduces the sensor’s susceptibility to interfering gases, thus enhancing its selectivity. The combined enhancements in moisture resistance and selectivity achieved through HMDS surface modification, along with the superior sensitivity of Pd/SnO₂ sensors, facilitate the development of gas sensors with enhanced humidity tolerance and broader applications.
Chemiresistive gas sensors↗
FIRE: A Failure-Adaptive RL Framework for Edge Computing Migrations
In edge computing, users' service profiles are migrated between edge servers due to user mobility. Reinforcement Learning (RL) frameworks have been proposed to do so, often trained on simulated data. However, existing RL frameworks overlook occasional server failures, which although rare, impact latency-sensitive applications like AR/VR and real- time obstacle detection. These rare failures, being not adequately represented in historical training data, pose a challenge for data-driven RL algorithms. We introduce FIRE, a framework that adapts to rare events by training a RL policy in an edge computing digital twin environment. We propose FIRE-ImRE, an importance sampling-based Q-learning algorithm, which samples rare events proportionally to their impact on the value function. FIRE considers delay, migration, failure, and backup placement costs across individual and shared service profiles. We prove FIRE-ImRE's boundedness and convergence to optimality. Next, we introduce novel deep Q-learning (FIRE-ImDQL) and actor critic (FIRE-ImACRE) versions of our algorithm to enhance scalability. Here, we extend our framework to accommodate users with varying risk tolerances of rare failure events. Through trace-driven experiments, we show that FIRE reduces edge computing costs compared to vanilla RL and the greedy baseline in the event of failures.
Edge computing↗
Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes
Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.
Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗
Influence of plasma screening on high-density inverse bremsstrahlung absorption
A spherical-implosion platform diagnosed with the “beamlets” scattered-light detector provides high sensitivity to the impact of plasma screening on inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. Contrary to the more restrictive screening length suggested previously [D. Turnbull et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 145103 (2023); D. Turnbull et al., Phys. Plasmas 31, 063304 (2024)], the beamlets data indicate that the electron-only Debye length is the relevant screening length for high-density inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. Furthermore, using the updated absorption model, we simulate the OMEGA direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosion database and show that bang times are well reproduced without any ad hoc multipliers.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Mapping and Characterizing the Visual Impacts of the Existing US Wind Turbine Fleet
Visual impacts of wind turbines have been a persistent concern for wind energy development in the United States (US) for decades and remain a major source of project delays and cancellations. Assessments of visual impacts are frequently performed at a local scale for individual projects, but a comprehensive understanding of broader geographic patterns in visual impacts across the US is lacking. This paper presents a visual impact assessment of the existing land-based wind turbine fleet of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment combines geographic information systems and 3D simulation methods to account for key factors driving the visual magnitude of impacts from the installed turbines. The results indicate that, despite the deployment of approximately 70,000 turbines and over 144 gigawatts of land-based wind in the CONUS, the visual impacts are very small when measured as a proportion of land area, population, and sensitive visual resources. Nonetheless, visual impacts are not evenly distributed: people experience a concentrated share in a small number of natural settings, primarily including plains, prairies, and deserts. Finally, we find that although increased density of wind development consistently leads to visual impacts across a greater proportion of land, it does not always lead to impacts to a greater share of the population. These findings suggest that visual impacts from wind energy are generally well-mitigated across the CONUS to date but also highlight the need for a deeper understanding of landscape sensitivity and individual perceptions of wind turbines in the most heavily impacted natural settings.
3D simulation↗
Particle Swarm Optimization of Dynamic Load Model Parameters in Large Systems
This paper considers two dynamic load models that are widely used in industry to account for induction motor behavior: CMLD and CLOD. These models must be parametrized for the specific utility system in a general way so that they can be used in planning studies and provide a conservative but realistic representation of load behavior. This study considers a measurement-based approach to tuning both models. The load modeling study compares the response of the tuned models to generic candidate models using historical events. This study considers one area-based subsystem to simplify the modeling approach and reduce the number of models required for simulations. Additionally, because dynamic load models often produce similar results for different sets of parameters, a sensitivity study was conducted to assess the parameter impacts on the voltage response. The sensitivity study covers the parameters that are tuned using event measurements. The process to estimate the parameters uses the particle-swarm optimization algorithm. Overall, the performance of the tuned model more accurately captures recovery voltage, delayed recovery, and settling voltage than its predecessor models while not being overly tuned so that it remains general for peak summer conditions.
dynamic load modeling↗
Beam Non-Uniformity Characterization at the SpinQuest and DarkQuest Experiments
The SpinQuest experiment, including upgrades to SpinQuest designed to increase sensitivity to dark sector searches (commonly known as DarkQuest), utilizes the high-intensity 120 GeV proton beam delivered by the Fermilab Accelerator Complex to probe the inner structure of nucleons and search for new physics beyond the Standard Model. The SpinQuest beam is extracted from the Main Injector synchrotron at Fermilab in what is known as a slow spill . The slow spill involves a complex non-linear half-integer extraction method, which results in non-uniform beam behavior. SpinQuest observes spikes of very high intensity beam which can saturate detectors and reduce trigger efficiency, significantly impacting the experiment's sensitivity. In this project we address this challenge by developing an analysis framework to characterize the beam delivered to SpinQuest. By discovering trends within each spill and by comparing thousands of spills, we can better inform the Accelerator Division and improve the slow spill extraction. We have also begun a collaboration with the Accelerator Division in order to simulate the slow spill and improve the magnet ramp process controls which will improve the uniformity of the beam. These improvements will directly enhance the physics reach of SpinQuest/DarkQuest, increasing their sensitivity to key measurements such as the Sivers function and searches for new physics.
Dolen, James William [Purdue U., Calumet] (ORCID:0↗
Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis
Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Seasonality and Albedo Dependence of Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Mountains create and enhance their own clouds, which both scatter and absorb shortwave radiation from the sun and absorb and re-emit land surface and atmospheric longwave radiation. However, the impacts of clouds on the surface radiation balance in high elevation snowy mountain terrain are poorly explored. In this study, we use data collected by the SAIL field campaign and partner organizations in the upper elevations (2,880 m.a.s.l) of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) over a 21-month period from September 2021 to June 2023 to estimate Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF) in the shortwave, longwave, and the net effect. Longwave warming effects dominate during the winter when snow albedos are high (0.8–0.9) and the background atmospheric precipitable water vapor is low (<0.5 cm), yielding a maximum monthly average net CRF of +34.7 W·m -2 , meaning that clouds increase the net radiation relative to clear skies during this time period. The sign of net CRF switches in the warm season as snow recedes, sun-angles increase, and the North American monsoon arrives, yielding a minimum monthly average net CRF of -47.6 W·m -2 with hourly minima of -600 W·m -2 . The sign of net CRF is typically positive, even at solar noon, when the surface is snow covered, except for a brief period over melting, low-albedo snow (0.5–0.6) impacted by dust impurities. Sensitivity tests elucidate the role of the surface albedo on the net CRF. The results suggest that net CRF will increase in magnitude and lead to a more persistent cooling effect on the surface net radiation budget as the snow cover declines.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Parity-odd four-point correlation function from the DESI data release 1 luminous red galaxy sample
The parity-odd four-point function provides a unique probe of fundamental symmetries and potential new physics in the large-scale structure of the Universe. We present measurements of the parity-odd four-point function using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) DR1 luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample and assess its detection significance. Our analysis considers both auto- and cross-correlations, using two complementary approaches to the covariance: (i) the full analytic covariance matrix applied to the uncompressed data vector, and (ii) a compressed data vector combined with a hybrid covariance matrix constructed from simulations and analytic estimates. When using the full analytic covariance matrix without corrections, we observe apparent auto-correlation signals with significance up to 4𝜎. However, this excess is also consistent with a mismatch between the statistical fluctuations estimated from the simulations and those present in the real data. Our findings therefore suggest that the parity-odd signal in the current DESI DR1 LRG sample is consistent with zero. We note, however, that the low completeness of this sample may have a non-negligible impact on the detection sensitivity. Future data releases with improved completeness will be crucial for further investigation.
Hou, Jiamin [Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität; Unive↗
TeV-scale lepton number violation: Connecting leptogenesis, neutrinoless double beta decay, and colliders
In the context of TeV-scale lepton number violating (LNV) interactions, we illustrate the interplay between leptogenesis, neutrinoless double beta ( 0 ν β β ) decay, and LNV searches at proton-proton colliders. Using a concrete model for illustration, we overcome the limitations of previous effective field theory analyses and are able to identify the parameter space where standard thermal leptogenesis is rendered unviable due to washout processes. Moreover, we show how 0 ν β β decay and p p collisions provide complementary probes. We find that the new particle spectrum can have a decisive impact on the relative sensitivity of these two probes. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Exponential Backoff and Its Security Implications for Safety-Critical OT Protocols over TCP/IP Networks
The convergence of Operational Technology (OT) and Information Technology (IT) networks has become increasingly prevalent with the growth of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) applications. This shift, while enabling enhanced automation, remote monitoring, and data sharing, also introduces new challenges related to communication latency and cybersecurity. Oftentimes, legacy OT protocols were adapted to the TCP/IP stack without an extensive review of the ramifications to their robustness, performance, or safety objectives. To further accommodate the IT/OT convergence, protocol gateways were introduced to facilitate the migration from serial protocols to TCP/IP protocol stacks within modern IT/OT infrastructure. However, they often introduce additional vulnerabilities by exposing traditionally isolated protocols to external threats. This study investigates the security and reliability implications of migrating serial protocols to TCP/IP stacks and the impact of protocol gateways, utilizing two widely used OT protocols: Modbus TCP and DNP3. Our protocol analysis finds a significant safety-critical vulnerability resulting from this migration, and our subsequent tests clearly demonstrate its presence and impact. A multi-tiered testbed, consisting of both physical and emulated components, is used to evaluate protocol performance and the effects of device-specific implementation flaws. Through this analysis of specifications and behaviors during communication interruptions, we identify critical differences in fault handling and the impact on time-sensitive data delivery. The findings highlight how reliance on lower-level IT protocols can undermine OT system resilience, and they inform the development of mitigation strategies to enhance the robustness of industrial communication networks.
DNP3↗