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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

Increases in NASA mission costs are well-noted but not well-understood, and there is little evidence that they are decreasing in frequency or amount over time. The need to control spending has led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns, and many program control efforts are being implemented to attempt to prevent or mitigate the problem (NPR 7120). However, cost overruns have not abated, and while some direct causes of increased spending may be obvious (requirements creep, launch delays, directed changes, etc.), the underlying impetus to spend past the original budget may be more subtle. Gaining better insight into the causes of cost overruns will help NASA and its contracting organizations to avoid .them. This paper hypothesizes that one cause of NASA mission cost overruns is that the availability of reserves gives project team members an incentive to make decisions and behave in ways that increase costs. We theorize that the presence of reserves is a contributing factor to cost overruns because it causes organizations to use their funds less efficiently or to control spending less effectively. We draw a comparison to the insurance industry concept of moral hazard, the phenomenon that the presence of insurance causes insureds to have more frequent and higher insurance losses, and we attempt to apply actuarial techniques to quantifY the increase in the expected cost of a mission due to the availability of reserves. We create a theoretical model of reserve spending motivation by defining a variable ReserveSpending as a function of total reserves. This function has a positive slope; for every dollar of reserves available, there is a positive probability of spending it. Finally, the function should be concave down; the probability of spending each incremental dollar of reserves decreases progressively. We test the model against available NASA CADRe data by examining missions with reserve dollars initially available and testing whether they are more likely to spend those dollars, and whether larger levels of reserves lead to higher cost overruns. Finally, we address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects budgeted without any reserves. Is there a "sweet spot"? How can we derive the maximum benefit associated with risk reduction from reserves while minimizing the effects of reserve spending motivation?

Whitley, Sally↗
NASA NTRS1994

A rapid-pressure correlation representation consistent with the Taylor-Proudman theorem materially-frame-indifferent in the 2D limit

A nonlinear representation for the rapid-pressure correlation appearing in the Reynolds stress equations, consistent with the Taylor-Proudman theorem, is presented. The representation insures that the modeled second-order equations are frame-invariant with respect to rotation when the flow is two-dimensional in planes perpendicular to the axis of rotation. The representation satisfies realizability in a new way: a special ansatz is used to obtain analytically, the values of coefficients valid away from the realizability limit: the model coefficients are functions of the state of the turbulence that are valid for all states of the mechanical turbulence attaining their constant limiting values only when the limit state is achieved. Utilization of all the mathematical constraints are not enough to specify all the coefficients in the model. The unspecified coefficients appear as free parameters which are used to insure that the representation is asymptotically consistent with the known equilibrium states of a homogeneous sheared turbulence. This is done by insuring that the modeled evolution equations have the same fixed points as those obtained from computer and laboratory experiments for the homogeneous shear. Results of computations of the homogeneous shear, with and without rotation, and with stabilizing and destabilizing curvature, are shown. Results are consistently better, in a wide class of flows which the model not been calibrated, than those obtained with other nonlinear models.

Ristorcelli, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Performance Improvements to the Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE)

Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) is the first fully-engineered, modular, tunable, autonomous Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system for the remote measurement of water vapor, aerosols and clouds across the troposphere. It was designed, built and environmentally tested at LARC. LASE was designed to fly aboard a NASA/Ames ER-2 aircraft (NASA's high altitude aircraft) and operate at altitudes from 58,000 to 70,000 feet. Since its first flight on May 11, 1994, it has flown 28 total missions on board the ER-2. LASE has been validated with results showing an accuracy better than the initial requirement for vertical profiles of water vapor in the troposphere. LASE can also deploy on several other aircraft including the NASA P-3 and will fly aboard the NASA DC-8 during the Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX) in July-September 1998. The tunable laser system of LASE was designed to operate in a double-pulse mode at 5Hz, with energy outputs of up to 15OmJ per pulse in the 813 to 819nm wavelength region and with 99% of the output energy within a spectral interval of 1.06 pm. Sixteen wavelengths were selected to cover the various water vapor absorption cross sections needed for the DIAL measurement. The Ti:Sapphire laser was constructed using a frequency-doubled Nd:YAG laser as the pump source and a single mode diode laser as a injection seeder for the Ti:Al2O3 laser. We have improved the LASE instrument in several important ways. Improvements to the seed source have demonstrated that DFB laser diodes can be used as reliable seed sources on airborne DIAL instruments. The DFB diode has enabled LASE to gather more data and significantly reduced the maintenance required to insure that the system performance requirements are met. The multiwavelength sequential seeding technique is the current method of data collection for LASE. It has the advantages of providing an entire atmospheric coverage of H2O(v) from the ground to the aircraft altitude along a single ground track. The development of a flight deployable system to measure spectral purity will insure that the LASE instrument or any future flight based DIAL system can meet the performance specifications to insure data accuracy.

Edwards, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Metallography of Battery Resistance Spot Welds

Li-ion cells provide an energy dense solution for systems that require rechargeable electrical power. However, these cells can undergo thermal runaway, the point at which the cell becomes thermally unstable and results in hot gas, flame, electrolyte leakage, and in some cases explosion. The heat and fire associated with this type of event is generally violent and can subsequently cause damage to the surrounding system or present a dangerous risk to the personnel nearby. The space flight environment is especially sensitive to risks particularly when it involves potential for fire within the habitable volume of the International Space Station (ISS). In larger battery packs such as Robonaut 2 (R2), numerous Li-ion cells are placed in parallel-series configurations to obtain the required stack voltage and desired run-time or to meet specific power requirements. This raises a second and less obvious concern for batteries that undergo certification for space flight use: the joining quality at the resistance spot weld of battery cells to component wires/leads and battery tabs, bus bars or other electronic components and assemblies. Resistance spot welds undergo materials evaluation, visual inspection, conductivity (resistivity) testing, destructive peel testing, and metallurgical examination in accordance with applicable NASA Process Specifications. Welded components are cross-sectioned to ensure they are free of cracks or voids open to any exterior surface. Pore and voids contained within the weld zone but not open to an exterior surface, and are not determined to have sharp notch like characteristics, shall be acceptable. Depending on requirements, some battery cells are constructed of aluminum canisters while others are constructed of steel. Process specific weld schedules must be developed and certified for each possible joining combination. The aluminum canisters' positive terminals were particularly difficult to weld due to a bi-metal strip that comes ultrasonically pre-welded by the manufacturer. This was further complicated as the maximum electrode force was limited to low-electrode force to prevent deflection of the aluminum can during welding. Other Li-ion cells are comprised of smaller diameter cylindrical steel canisters which are inherently capable of handling greater force from the electrodes. Allowing higher-electrode forces aids greatly in insuring a consistent resistance network for the weld. Overall lessons learned: developing good jigs is critical to insure the parts and electrodes are planer to one another and the location of the weld sites remains accurate and repeatable; maintaining strict control over materials is critical--materials must be of a specific hardness and chemical composition to insure that a weld schedule is repeatable; accuracy of the die used to stamp the projections is critical and worth the investment; and proper seasoning of the electrodes is critical to producing consistent welds--once the electrodes have been properly seasoned, cleaning/dressing should be avoided until it is absolutely necessary.

Martinez, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The Viking parachute qualification test technique.

The parachute system for NASA's Viking '75 Mars lander was flight qualified in four high-altitude flight tests at the White Sands Missile range (WSMR). A balloon system lifted a full-scale simulated Viking spacecraft to an altitude where a varying number of rocket motors were used to propel the high drag, lifting test vehicle to test conditions which would simulate the range of entry conditions expected at Mars. A ground-commanded cold gas pointing system located on the balloon system provided powered vehicle azimuth control to insure that the flight trajectory remained within the WSMR boundaries. A unique ground-based computer-radar system was employed to monitor inflight performance of the powered vehicle and insure that command ignition of the parachute mortar occurred at the required test conditions of Mach number and dynamic pressure. Performance data were obtained from cameras, telemetry, and radar.

Raper, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A flying hot wire study of the turbulent near wake of a circular cylinder at Reynolds number of 140,000

The phenomenology was studied of the processes of vortex formation and transport in the near wake, at a Reynolds number sufficiently high to insure a fully turbulent wake, but low enough to insure a laminar separation. The apparatus developed for measuring this flow consisted of X-array hot wire probes mounted on the ends of a pair of whirling arms. A computer controlled data acquisition system was slaved to the position of the rotating arm and managed, monitored, edited, and recorded the vast profusion of data which is continuously poured out by the device. Results are presented which show the instantaneous velocity, intermittency, vorticity, and stress fields as a function of phase for the first six diameters of the near wake. The stresses in the near wake emerge as a concatenation of peaks and valleys, some the result of strong induced motions in the outer flow which cause free stream fluid to move rapidly inward toward the center of the wake, others the result of the random motions of the background turbulence.

Cantwell, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Urban construction and safety project

Technology utilization projects in the area of urban construction and safety included the following: development of undercarpet and baseboard flat conductor cables, flood insurance studies, tornado safety engineering, the Project TECH house at the Langley Research Center, assistance to the City of Atlanta in their environmental habitability and resource allocation program, and market assessment of a solid state diesel engine controller. The flat conductor cable and the flood insurance studies are given particular attention.

Hogarth, P. T.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Baseband recording and playback

Analog recordings of spacecraft telemetry signals are made by Deep Space Network Deep Space Stations to provide backup for both spacecraft and ground station anomalies. The requirements that must be met to insure successful baseband recording and playback are given. Recording and playback procedures are developed to insure that these requirements are met and performance results from tests conducted at the Compatibility Test Area (JPL) are tabulated.

Kent, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar-pumped gas laser development

A survey of gas properties through detailed kinetic models led to the identification of critical gas parameters for use in choosing appropriate gas combinations for solar pumped lasers. Broadband photoabsorption in the visible or near UV range is required to excite large volumes of gas and to insure good solar absorption efficiency. The photoexcitation density is independent of the absorption bandwidth. The state excited must be a metastable state which is not quenched by the parent gas. The emission bandwidth must be less than 10 A to insure lasing threshold over reasonable gain lengths. The system should show a high degree of chemical reversibility and an insensitivity to increasing temperature. Other properties such as good quantum efficiency and kinetic efficiency are also implied. Although photoexcitation of electronic vibrational transitions is considered as a possible system if the emission bands sufficiently narrow, it appears that photodissociation into atomic metastables is more likely to result in a successful solar pumped laser system.

Wilson, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The Space Shuttle in perspective

Commercial aspects of the Space Shuttle are examined, with attention given to charges to users, schedule of launches and reimbursement, kinds of payload and their selection, NASA authority, space allocation, and risk, liability, and insurance. It is concluded that insurance to reduce the risk, incentives that NASA is willing to make available to U.S. industry, and the demonstrated willingness of industry and the financial community to invest their funds in space ventures indicate that the new Shuttle capabilities will exponentially increase commercial activities in space during the 1980s.

Hosenball, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the convergence of an iterative formulation of the electromagnetic scattering from an infinite grating of thin wires

Contraction theory is applied to an iterative formulation of electromagnetic scattering from periodic structures and a computational method for insuring convergence is developed. A short history of spectral (or k-space) formulation is presented with an emphasis on application to periodic surfaces. The mathematical background for formulating an iterative equation is covered using straightforward single variable examples including an extension to vector spaces. To insure a convergent solution of the iterative equation, a process called the contraction corrector method is developed. Convergence properties of previously presented iterative solutions to one-dimensional problems are examined utilizing contraction theory and the general conditions for achieving a convergent solution are explored. The contraction corrector method is then applied to several scattering problems including an infinite grating of thin wires with the solution data compared to previous works.

Brand, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Technology programs and related policies - Impacts on communications satellite business ventures

The DOMSAT II stochastic communication satellite business venture financial planning simulation model is described. The specification of business scenarios and the results of several analyses are presented. In particular, the impacts of NASA on-orbit propulsion and power technology programs are described. The effects of insurance rates and self-insurance and of the use of the Space Shuttle and Ariane transportation systems on a typical fixed satellite service business venture are discussed.

Greenberg, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The application of contraction theory to an iterative formulation of electromagnetic scattering

Contraction theory is applied to an iterative formulation of electromagnetic scattering from periodic structures and a computational method for insuring convergence is developed. A short history of spectral (or k-space) formulation is presented with an emphasis on application to periodic surfaces. To insure a convergent solution of the iterative equation, a process called the contraction corrector method is developed. Convergence properties of previously presented iterative solutions to one-dimensional problems are examined utilizing contraction theory and the general conditions for achieving a convergent solution are explored. The contraction corrector method is then applied to several scattering problems including an infinite grating of thin wires with the solution data compared to previous works.

Brand, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Communications satellite business ventures - Measuring the impact of technology programmes and related policies

An economic evaluation and planning procedure which assesses the effects of various policies on fixed satellite business ventures is described. The procedure is based on a stochastic financial simulation model, the Domsat II, which evaluates spacecraft reliability, market performance, and cost uncertainties. The application of the Domsat II model to the assessment of NASA's ion thrusters for on-orbit propulsion and GaAs solar cell technology is discussed. The effects of insurance rates and the self-insurance option on the financial performance of communication satellite business ventures are investigated. The selection of a transportation system for placing the satellites into GEO is analyzed.

Greenberg, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Acoustic emission monitoring of Space Shuttle tiles

Late in the development of the Space Shuttle thermal protection system (TPS), a major problem was encountered with the attachment of the tiles to the spacecraft's exterior skin. To insure an adequate margin, each tile had to be proof tested. The risk of damaging a tile during proof test was quite high. For this reason, an acoustic emission system was developed and used in conjunction with the proof test to insure no significant damage occurred.

Castner, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cost effective management of space venture risks

The development of a model for the cost-effective management of space venture risks is discussed. The risk assessment and control program of insurance companies is examined. A simplified system development cycle which consists of a conceptual design phase, a preliminary design phase, a final design phase, a construction phase, and a system operations and maintenance phase is described. The model incorporates insurance safety risk methods and reliability engineering, and testing practices used in the development of large aerospace and defense systems.

Giuntini, Ronald E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Practices in Adequate Structural Design

Structural design and verification of space vehicles and space systems is a very tricky and awe inspiring business, particularly for manned missions. Failures in the missions with loss of life is devastating personally and nationally. The scope of the problem is driven by high performance requirements which push state-of-the-art technologies, creating high sensitivites to small variations and uncertainties. Insurance of safe, reliable flight dictates the use of sound principles, procedures, analysis, and testing. Many of those principles which were refocused by the Space Shuttle Challenger (51-L) accident on January 26, 1986, and the activities conducted to insure safe shuttle reflights are discussed. The emphasis will be focused on engineering, while recognizing that project and project management are also key to success.

Ryan, Robert S.↗