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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmark estimate of the effect of anthropogenic emissions on the ocean surface

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic emissions in the occurrence of extreme weather often use a method that compares simulations of atmospheric climate models run under a factual scenario of historical boundary conditions observed during the period of the event against simulations run under a counterfactual scenario of what those boundary conditions might naturally have been over that same period in the absence of anthropogenic emissions. A particular requirement for this experiment design is an accurate estimation of ocean surface boundary conditions for use by the counterfactual natural simulations. Here we use output from the CMIP5 multi‐climate‐model archive to develop a robust estimate of sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions for use in counterfactual natural simulations, intended as a benchmark estimate to facilitate comparison across climate models and across studies. This development includes tests to ensure that the final estimate is stable from year‐to‐year and stable against other perturbations to the methodology, as well as consideration of the strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other available attributable warming estimates. While this estimate is tailored specifically for the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project, it can be used by related projects as well.

Stone, Dáithí A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Modeling of Atmospheric Rime Ice Accretion on an Airfoil Using an Eulerian Approach

This paper presents an approach to numerically simulate the inherently unsteady rime ice accretion problem on a two-dimensional airfoil and elucidate the associated variations under different icing conditions. The airflow field and the water impingement on the airfoil are obtained based on an Eulerian two-phase model. A dynamic mesh strategy is employed to unsteadily account for the changes in the ice profile and its impact on the air and droplet flow by continuously reconstructing the computational grid at each time-step through smoothing and layering mechanisms. All main icing modules including the airflow field, droplet trajectory, icing thickness profile, and mesh management are fully coupled within the same computational framework without resorting to any external tools. Classical icing theory is employed to model the rime ice roughness, and it is assumed that the ice accretes in a direction normal to the airfoil surface. The governing Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) conservation equations along with the energy and continuity equations are solved to produce the velocity and temperature fields. A convective film heat transfer coefficient is computed based on the surface heat flux and a recovery temperature which takes into account the dissipative heat release in the boundary layer in the vicinity of the airfoil surface. With the implemented strategy and calculating the convective heat transfer coefficient, the water film thickness is also calculated along with the ice shape. Furthermore, the model is validated by comparing the local collection efficiency distribution and ice shape with experimental data, and the results show that the implemented approach provides acceptable predictions of ice accretion profiles and rates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tethered balloon-borne profile measurements of atmospheric properties in the cloudy atmospheric boundary layer over the Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC: Overview and first results

The tethered balloon-borne measurement system BELUGA (Balloon-bornE moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere) was deployed over the Arctic sea ice for 4 weeks in summer 2020 as part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition. Using BELUGA, vertical profiles of dynamic, thermodynamic, aerosol particle, cloud, radiation, and turbulence properties were measured from the ground up to a height of 1,500 m. BELUGA was operated during an anomalously warm period with frequent liquid water clouds and variable sea ice conditions. Three case studies of liquid water phase, single-layer clouds observed on 3 days (July 13, 23, and 24, 2020) are discussed to show the potential of the collected data set to comprehensively investigate cloud properties determining cloud evolution in the inner Arctic over sea ice. Simulated back-trajectories show that the observed clouds have evolved within 3 different air masses (“aged Arctic,” “advected over sea ice,” and “advected over open ocean”), which left distinct fingerprints in the cloud properties. Strong cloud top radiative cooling rates agree with simulated results of previous studies. The weak warming at cloud base is mostly driven by the vertical temperature profile between the surface and cloud base. In-cloud turbulence induced by the cloud top cooling was similar in strength compared to former studies. From the extent of the mixing layer, it is speculated that the overall cloud cooling is stronger and thus faster in the warm oceanic air mass. Larger aerosol particle number concentrations and larger sizes were observed in the air mass advected over the sea ice and in the air mass advected over the open ocean.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Correlation between Cold Weather Meteorological Variables and Electricity Outages

The significance of the impact of weather on the electric grid has grown as climate change continues to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In recent years (2021-2022) in particular, extreme winter weather has affected the grid in locations in the US rarely exposed to extreme low temperatures, snow and icing conditions. Here we analyze the correlation between cold weather meteorological variables and electricity outages during two large winter storm events, Uri (February 2021) and Landon (February 2022) using Random Forest machine learning and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Our geographical focus across the two storms is the state of Texas. Extrapolation of the method to winter weather impacts over other years and additional locations is proposed.

Dumas, Melissa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical Simulation Studies of Ultrasonic De-Icing for Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Structures

Ice accumulation on heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVACR) structures presents significant operational challenges. These challenges include reduced efficiency, increased energy consumption, and potential damage to equipment. Traditional de-icing methods, such as chemical treatments, mechanical scraping, or heating-based techniques, are often labor-intensive, costly, and environmentally harmful. Here, this study uniquely investigates ultrasonic de-icing as an energy-efficient alternative for HVACR applications, focusing on the specific structural geometries found in these systems. A comprehensive numerical simulation framework was developed using finite element analysis to explore ultrasonic wave propagation across four distinct HVACR structures. Key parameters such as ultrasonic frequency, power levels, and the number and placement of actuators were examined for their impact on ice detachment efficiency. Results from simulations on a plate structure reveal that ultrasonic excitation can propagate effectively across large areas (at least 150 × 150 mm), enhancing the de-icing coverage. Lower frequency (e.g., 30 to 45 kHz) excitation results in greater displacement, improving de-icing performance, while increased actuator numbers with the same total power input also enhance effectiveness. Two actuators seem sufficient for the de-icing of a 300 × 300 mm plate. For tube-and-fin structures, specific high-power ultrasonic frequencies selectively excite the fin plates, demonstrating efficient ice removal when actuated on the tube. However, optimal performance requires careful design of actuator placement and vibration modes to accommodate the irregular shapes of these structures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Declines in ice cover are accompanied by light limitation responses and community change in freshwater diatoms

The rediscovery of diatom blooms embedded within and beneath the Lake Erie ice cover (2007–2012) ignited interest in psychrophilic adaptations and winter limnology. Subsequent studies determined the vital role ice plays in winter diatom ecophysiology as diatoms partition to the underside of ice, thereby fixing their location within the photic zone. Yet, climate change has led to widespread ice decline across the Great Lakes, with Lake Erie presenting a nearly “ice-free” state in several recent winters. It has been hypothesized that the resultant turbid, isothermal water column induces light limitation amongst winter diatoms and thus serves as a competitive disadvantage. To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted a physiochemical and metatranscriptomic survey that spanned spatial, temporal, and climatic gradients of the winter Lake Erie water column (2019–2020). Our results suggest that ice-free conditions decreased planktonic diatom bloom magnitude and altered diatom community composition. Diatoms increased their expression of various photosynthetic genes and iron transporters, which suggests that the diatoms are attempting to increase their quantity of photosystems and light-harvesting components (a well-defined indicator of light limitation). We identified two gene families which serve to increase diatom fitness in the turbid ice-free water column: proton-pumping rhodopsins (a potential second means of light-driven energy acquisition) and fasciclins (a means to “raft” together to increase buoyancy and co-locate to the surface to optimize light acquisition). With large-scale climatic changes already underway, our observations provide insight into how diatoms respond to the dynamic ice conditions of today and shed light on how they will fare in a climatically altered tomorrow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metatranscriptomic analysis reveals dissimilarity in viral community activity between an ice-free and ice-covered winter in Lake Erie

Winter is a relatively under-studied season in freshwater ecology. The paucity of wintertime surveys has led to a lack of knowledge regarding microbial community activity during the winter in Lake Erie, a North American Great Lake. Viruses shape microbial communities and regulate biogeochemical cycles by acting as top-down controls, yet very few efforts have been made to examine active virus populations during the winter in Lake Erie. Furthermore, climate change-driven declines in seasonal ice cover have been shown to influence microbial community structure, but no studies have compared viral community activity between different ice cover conditions. We surveyed surface water metatranscriptomes for viral hallmark genes as a proxy for active virus populations and compared activity metrics between ice-covered and ice-free conditions from two sampled winters. Transcriptionally active viral communities were detected in both winters, spanning diverse phylogenetic clades of putative bacteriophage (Caudoviricetes), giant viruses (Nucleocytoviricota, or NCLDV), and RNA viruses (Orthornavirae). However, viral community activity metrics revealed pronounced differences between the ice-covered and ice-free winters. Viral community composition was distinct between winters and viral hallmark gene richness was reduced in the ice-covered relative to the ice-free conditions. In addition, the observed differences in viral communities correlated with microbial community activity metrics. Overall, these findings contribute to our understanding of the viral populations that are active during the winter in Lake Erie and suggest that viral community activity may be associated with ice cover extent.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Next-Generation Video Ice Particle Sampler Field Campaign Report

The next-generation video ice particle sampler (ngVIPS) was operated on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s tethered balloon system (TBS) during the IFFExO (Ice Fog Field Experiment at Oliktok Point) project in November, 2020. The purpose of the project was to study ice fog microphysics and the environmental conditions during ice fog to enable better predictions during low-visibility conditions. This project was conducted at the site of the third ARM Mobile Facility (AMF3) at Oliktok Point, Alaska. Among a suite of other instruments, the ngVIPS was operated to observe atmospheric ice particles.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental Determination of the Relationship Between Organic Aerosol Viscosity and Ice Nucleation at Upper Free Tropospheric Conditions

Abstract This work presents measurements of the ice nucleating ability of secondary organic material recorded between −40 and −70°C and relative humidity with respect to ice (RH ice ) between 150% and 220%. For a subset of systems, temperature and humidity dependence of particle viscosity as well as dry glass transition temperature were characterized using the dual tandem differential mobility analyzer method. Eleven unique monoterpene, sesquiterpene and aromatic precursors were used to generate secondary organic material (SOM) using either an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) or an environmental chamber (EC). For the SOM for which viscosity was measured, the particle glass transition temperatures varied between 6 and 23°C ( n = 8). Measurements were performed to verify that increased relative humidity did not plasticize the particles below −10°C at residence times similar to those in the ice nucleation instrument. No heterogeneous ice nucleation was observed at the ∼0.5% onset threshold for any of the materials generated. The ice nucleation occurs by the freezing of SOM solution droplets consistent with homogeneous freezing indicating that they form an aqueous solution, or the SOM particles required water saturation to freeze, indicating that they were hydrophobic. Experiments exploring the influence of functional groups and mass loading did not reveal any obvious influence of particle chemistry or generation conditions on the results. Close structural matches between known organic ice nucleating particles as precursor or formed products did not yield materials that promoted freezing. These experiments suggest that heterogeneous ice formation of glassy secondary organic materials is likely uncommon under upper free tropospheric conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Correction Model of the Winter Clear-Sky Temperature Bias over the Arctic Sea Ice in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used to estimate the past atmospheric near-surface state over sea ice. They provide boundary conditions for sea ice and ocean numerical simulations and relevant information for studying polar variability and anthropogenic climate change. Previous research revealed the existence of large near-surface temperature biases (mostly warm) over the Arctic sea ice in the current generation of atmospheric reanalyses, which is linked to a poor representation of the snow over the sea ice and the stably stratified boundary layer in the forecast models used to produce the reanalyses. These errors can compromise the employment of reanalysis products in support of polar research. Here, we train a fully connected neural network that learns from remote sensing infrared temperature observations to correct the existing generation of uncoupled atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5, JRA-55) based on a set of sea ice and atmospheric predictors, which are themselves reanalysis products. The advantages of the proposed correction scheme over previous calibration attempts are the consideration of the synoptic weather and cloud state, compatibility of the predictors with the mechanism responsible for the bias, and a self-emerging seasonality and multidecadal trend consistent with the declining sea ice state in the Arctic. The correction leads on average to a 27% temperature bias reduction for ERA5 and 7% for JRA-55 if compared to independent in situ observations from the MOSAiC campaign (respectively, 32% and 10% under clear-sky conditions). These improvements can be beneficial for forced sea ice and ocean simulations, which rely on reanalyses surface fields as boundary conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗