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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Regional differences in tobacco smoking and lung cancer in Portugal in 2018: a population-based analysis using nationwide incidence and mortality data

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal in 2018, complemented by trends in incidence and mortality, by sex and region. Design: Cancer cases for 1998–2011 and cancer deaths for 1991–2018 were obtained from population-based registries and Statistics Portugal, respectively. We projected cases for 2018 and used reported deaths for the same year to estimate, using Peto’s method, the number and proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths caused by tobacco smoking in 2018. We calculated the age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in each year of diagnosis and death. We fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in the rates. Setting: Portugal. Results: In 2018, an estimated 3859 cases and 3192 deaths from lung cancer were attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal, with men presenting a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 82.6% (n=3064) for incidence and 84.1% (n=2749) for mortality, while in women those values were 51.0% (n=795) and 42.7% (n=443), respectively. In both sexes and metrics, the Azores were the region with the highest PAF and the Centre with the lowest. During 1998–2011, the APC for incidence ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% in men and 3.6% to 7.9% in women, depending on region, with mortality presenting a similar pattern between sexes. Conclusion: Exposure to tobacco smoking has accounted for most of the lung cancer cases and deaths estimated in Portugal in 2018. Differential patterns of tobacco consumption across the country, varying implementation of primary prevention programmes and differences in personal cancer awareness may have contributed to the disparities observed. Primary prevention of lung cancer remains a public health priority, particularly among women.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Command and Control of Utilities Systems

The utilities systems that encompass the Y-12 National Security Complex are an integral part of the entire campus, and are essential to maintaining critical mission focus for the site. Although the utilities systems each differ in function, the central production and distribution model creates a common thread on which each system is run. Several incidents in FY 2018 and FY 2019 documented a lack of overall systems control and highlighted the need to create a better command system that could maintain system availability and decrease possible impacts to the surrounding environment. An initial system was started in September of 2019 to better control mechanical utility distribution systems. The measurement of the system can be modeled against a standard command and control related incident. The corresponding work hours from a typical control-related incident were used as key component to this system model. System effectiveness is modeled against utility’s incidents that demonstrate a loss of command and control. The increased simulations of the model also document control can only be effectively contained within the stated time (3-5 years) by yielding more engineers to complete alignments, or drastically reducing the amount of time for alignments. The total control points of the model document a clear correlation between alignments, control points, and the amount of man-hours per incident. Current data shows that actual incident man-hours (1.88 manhours/ incident since initial system implementation) are near expected incident man-hours (1.81 manhours/ incident) with command and control for October 2021, which documents a 33.3% reduction in man-hours/incident since initial system implementation. A conclusion can be drawn that focus on increasing the amount of controlled points in the system can reduce incidents and the decrease the amount of non-value added work to employee’s day-to-day lives, while also achieving a culture that enhances and sustains utilities reliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Multi-hazard Machine Learning Modeling for Advanced Risk-Informed Infrastructure Resilience Assessment

The socioeconomic impacts of pipeline incidents have escalated over the past three decades, revealing the limitation of traditional risk modeling methods when applied to extensive pipeline networks. This research aims to develop machine learning (ML) models that effectively identify, rank, and predict the diverse hazards and socioeconomic consequences associated with pipeline incidents. Utilizing historical data on pipeline incidents alongside weather and oceanographic data from the 1980s onward, the Houston metropolitan area serves as a testbed for the proposed methodologies. The research segments the combined datasets into three consecutive periods, demonstrating the efficacy of the updated model in predicting future events, particularly concerning precipitation rate data. Despite the challenges posed by a relatively limited dataset, local-level ML modeling offers valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of multiple hazards that contribute to pipeline incidents. These findings hold significant implications for future research, particularly in understanding and mitigating risks in various locations across the Gulf Coast and other coastal regions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of electron backscattering in the MCNP6.3 code

A new electron backscattering validation suite has been developed for the MCNP® code. The calculations in this suite cover both condensed history and single-event transport methods, seven different elemental materials ranging from beryllium to uranium, and incident electron energies from 200 eV to 14.1 MeV. In general, the accuracy of the MCNP code for electron backscattering calculations is energy-dependent. For incident electron energies below 2 keV, the condensed history method is not applied while the single-event method shows poor agreement with experimental measurements due to poor accuracy of the underlying atomic data. For incident energies between 2 keV and 256 keV, the single-event method typically shows better agreement with experiments, while for incident energies above 256 keV the condensed history method gives better accuracy. Additionally, agreement with experimental data is generally worse for low- Z materials such as beryllium and carbon, which may reflect deficiencies in the data or physics underlying electron transport through light elements in the MCNP code. The new electron backscattering validation suite, along with the previously introduced electron stopping power and Lockwood energy deposition validation suites, provide MCNP users with a quantified understanding of the uncertainties in electron transport calculations. Future improvements to electron transport in the MCNP code are necessary for low energies (≤ 2 keV) and for low- Z materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Doppelpaymer Ransomware Attack on Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) 2019

The DoppelPaymer Ransomware Attack on Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) 2019 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the PEMEX cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The 2019 DoppelPaymer ransomware attack on PEMEX, Mexico’s nationalized petroleum corporation, highlights a unique threat that ransomware and cybercriminal extortion poses to Operational Technology (OT) environments in critical infrastructure. The incident began with an employee downloading commodity malware that allowed adversaries to gain initial access to PEMEX’s enterprise environment. After conducting privilege escalation, tool ingress, and data exfiltration, the adversaries deployed DoppelPaymer ransomware throughout the PEMEX enterprise environment, resulting in the company having to take dozens of systems offline for at least several days. Although PEMEX stated that their operations were not affected, the data exfiltrated from PEMEX was made available for download on DoppelPaymer’s leak site, as well as on other illicit criminal forums. This stolen data included not only company information, but also sensitive OT-specific configuration data. This incident showcases how cybercriminal exfiltration and posting of sensitive OT architecture documentation can pose security concerns for the targeted organization for years due to the long lifespan of OT assets and architectures. Researchers and analysts identified 18 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 190 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Fifteen of the identified techniques used during the DoppelPaymer ransomware attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 163 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 34 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 60 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Incident beam simulations for the CNCS instrument

This data set contains incident beam simulations for the 100 most frequently used configurations of the cold neutron chopper spectrometer (CNCS) instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source. A mcpl output was placed 0.2 m upstream of the sample position. Each file provides enough events to sufficiently sample the beam profile and intensity incident on the sample for that configuration. They can then be used for sample simulations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power flow in magnetically insulated transmission lines with ion backscatter effects

Ion backscattering off of surfaces in magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs) is often ignored in kinetic simulations of MITL power flow. Backscattering reduces ion current losses and the surface impact heating, which dictates the rate at which surface-adsorbed contaminants are liberated into the anode–cathode gap. Backscatter probabilities are difficult to implement in a kinetic code because there are limited data for incident ion energies less than a few keV. This paper presents an analytic model based on the Rutherford scattering formula that reproduces the measured backscatter probabilities at high incident energies and transitions to the highly reflective behavior expected at low incident energies. The backscatter model is implemented in power flow simulations, which are validated with current loss experiments conducted on the 0.4 TW Mykonos accelerator at Sandia National Laboratories. This simulation setup is then used in a high-current Z-machine shot. In conclusion, backscatter effects are found to be unimportant in the low-current Mykonos regime but significantly reduce current losses at the Z-machine scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

REFSafE: A RAG-Enabled Framework for Predictive Risk Analysis and Automated Safety Report Generation in Mission-Critical Environments

Operational safety in mission-critical environments requires AI systems that are accurate, interpretable, and resistant to hallucination. We present an agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework, REFSafe, for grounded hazard analysis and automated safety report generation. The system integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with structured operational data, historical incident repositories, policy documents, and external authoritative sources. Through iterative agentic reasoning, the framework retrieves, verifies, and synthesizes evidence prior to generation, enforcing citation-backed outputs with explicit source attribution (documents, links, and prior events) to ensure traceability and trust. To mitigate hallucinations and unsupported claims, all risk assessments and forecasts are constrained to retrieved evidence, with confidence signals derived from retrieval relevance and source consistency. A transparent pipeline enables subject matter experts (SMEs) to validate predictions, and provide structured feedback, forming a continuous performance calibration loop. Preliminary deployment demonstrates improved reliability in hazard detection and safety/vulnerability report generation. This work advances trustworthy, evidence-grounded AI for predictive safety intelligence in mission-critical operations.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of CR-39 nuclear track detectors to protons with non-normal incidence

This paper presents data from experiments with protons at non-normal incidence to CR-39 nuclear track detectors, analyzing the properties of detection efficiency, proton track diameter, track contrast, and track eccentricity. Understanding the CR-39 response to protons incident at an angle is important for designing charged particle detectors for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications. This study considers protons with incident energies less than 3 MeV. In this regime, an incident angle of 10° has no effect on CR-39 detection efficiency, and >85% detection efficiency is preserved up through 25° in the range of 1.0 MeV–2.1 MeV. For ICF applications, incident angles above 30° are deemed impractical for detector design due to significant drops in proton detection at all energies. We observe significant reductions in detection efficiency compared to theoretical predictions, particularly at low energies where proton tracks are etched away. The proton track diameter measured by the scan system is observed to decrease with higher incident angles. The track diameters are analyzed with two fitting models, and it is shown that the diameter–energy relation can be fit with the existing models at angles up to 30° . The optical contrast of the tracks tends to increase with the angle, meaning that the tracks are fainter, and a larger increase is observed for higher energies. Eccentricity, a measure of how elongated proton tracks are, increases with the incident angle and drops after the critical angle. The lowest energy tracks remain nearly circular even at higher angles.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of CR-39 nuclear track detectors to protons with non-normal incidence

This paper presents data from experiments with protons at non-normal incidence to CR-39 nuclear track detectors, analyzing the properties of detection efficiency, proton track diameter, track contrast, and track eccentricity. Understanding the CR-39 response to protons incident at an angle is important for designing charged particle detectors for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications. This study considers protons with incident energies less than 3 MeV. In this regime, an incident angle of 10° has no effect on CR-39 detection efficiency, and >85% detection efficiency is preserved up through 25° in the range of 1.0 MeV–2.1 MeV. For ICF applications, incident angles above 30° are deemed impractical for detector design due to significant drops in proton detection at all energies. We observe significant reductions in detection efficiency compared to theoretical predictions, particularly at low energies where proton tracks are etched away. The proton track diameter measured by the scan system is observed to decrease with higher incident angles. The track diameters are analyzed with two fitting models, and it is shown that the diameter–energy relation can be fit with the existing models at angles up to 30°. The optical contrast of the tracks tends to increase with the angle, meaning that the tracks are fainter, and a larger increase is observed for higher energies. Eccentricity, a measure of how elongated proton tracks are, increases with the incident angle and drops after the critical angle. The lowest energy tracks remain nearly circular even at higher angles.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive GOM Federal Waters Platform, Incident, Metocean, and Geohazard Dataset

The dataset contains integrated data from an array of disparate data sources, all spatially and temporally linked to platforms in the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico (platform data from BSEE, 2020). Integrated data includes past reported incidents dating back to 1956 (BSEE, BOEM, MMS), metocean data (see Nelson et al. in review for source information), and geohazard data (see Nelson et al. in review for source information). Proprietary well production information was redacted from this dataset, but was used in resulting analytics.

Full System↗
DOE OSTI2024

UTILITY CONTRIBUTION TO ARC FLASH STUDIES

The utility contribution input to an arc flash study has a significant effect on the output incident energy. Accurate input data can be difficult to obtain from serving utilities or is not consistently available. Defaulting to infinite bus can provide non-conservative results. This focus session poster will discuss the challenges with utility contribution with examples and suggest approaches to calculate conservative incident energy when the utility contribution data is not made available.

Arc flash study, utility contribution data, incide↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Potential Impact of Fugitive Methane Emissions on Offshore Platform Safety

One of the biggest risks to safety on offshore platform safety is the ignition of high-pressure natural gas streams. Currently, the size and number of fugitive emissions on offshore platforms is unknown and methods used to detect fugitives have significant shortcomings. To investigate the frequency, size, and potential impact of fugitives, a data collection exercise was conducted using incidents reported, leak survey data, and independent measurements. The size and number of fugitives on offshore facilities were simulated to investigate likely areas of safety concern. Incident reports indicate in 2021 there were 113 reports of gas leaks on 1119 offshore facilities, suggesting 0.02 fugitives per Type 1 facility (older, shallow-water platforms) and 0.31 fugitives per Type 2 facility (larger deeper-water facilities). Leak survey data report 12 fugitives per Type 1 facility (average emission 0.6 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ) and 15 fugitives per Type 2 facility (average emission 1.5 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ). Reconciliation of direct measurements with a bottom-up model suggests that the number of fugitive emissions generated from the leak report data is an underestimate for Type 1 platforms (44 fugitives facility −1 ; average emission 0.6 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ) and in general agreement for the Type 2 platforms (15 fugitives facility −1 ; average emission 1.5 kg CH 4 h −1 leak −1 ). Analysis of the fugitive emission rates on an offshore platform suggests that gas will not collect to explosive concentration if any air movement is present (>0.36 mph); however, large volumes of air (~600 m 3 ) near representative leaks on the working deck could become explosive in hour-long zero-wind conditions. We suggest that wearable technology could be employed to indicate gas build up, safety regulations amended to consider low-wind conditions and real-world experiments are conducted to test assumptions of air mixing on the working deck.

explosion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗