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At least 37 records · Page 2

Detector calibration of the Indian cosmic ray experiment (IONS) in Space-Shuttle Spacelab-13

In the Indian cosmic ray experiment (IONS) in Spacelab-3 the intention is to study nuclei up to iron in low energy cosmic rays, using CR-39 (DOP) detectors. CR-39 (DOP) was exposed to He4, C12, O16, Ne20, Si28, Ar40, Cr52 and Fe56 accelerated beams from various accelerator facilities available around the world. Different beam energies and exposure angles were used. From these exposures, the charge resolution and energy resolution for the detector in the region of interest were studied. The effect of pre-annealing and depth on the response of our detector was studied. For isotopic resolution, exposed the detector samples were exposed to Ne2O and Ne22 accelerated beams. Samples of CR-39 (DOP) exposed to different accelerated heavy ions were kept in the detector module to take into account the effect of ambient conditions on detector response during the flight.

Yadav, J. S.↗

Southern Ocean Response to NADW Changes

The possibility of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) changes in both past and future climates has raised the issue of how the Southern Ocean would respond. Recent experiments with the GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model have shown that a "bipolar see-saw" between NADW production and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) production in the Weddell Sea can occur in conjunction with freshening of the North Atlantic. However, this effect operates not through a slow ocean response but via a rapid atmospheric mechanism. As NADW reduces, colder temperatures in the North Atlantic, and Northern Hemisphere in general, are associated with higher surface pressure (increased atmospheric mass). Reduced mass in the Southern Hemisphere occurs in response, with lower pressure over the South Pole (an EOF #1 effect, the "high phase" of the Antarctic Oscillation).The lower pressure is associated with stronger west winds that generate an intensified Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which leads to longitudinal heat divergence in the South Atlantic (and heat convergence in the Southern Indian Ocean). Colder temperatures in the Weddell Sea region lead to sea ice growth, increased salinity and surface water density, and greater Weddell Sea Bottom Water production. Increased poleward transport of heat occurs in the South Atlantic in conjunction with increased bottom water production, but its convergence at high latitudes is not sufficient to offset the longitudinal heat divergence due to the intensified ACC. The colder temperatures at high latitudes in the South Atlantic increase the latitudinal temperature gradient, baroclinic instability, eddy energy and eddy poleward transport of momentum, helping to maintain the lower pressure over the pole in an interactive manner. The heat flux convergence in the Indian Ocean provides a warming tendency in that region, and overall global production of AABW remains unchanged. These results have implications for the interpretation of the ice core records of the last deglaciation, but may also be relevant for changes during the Holocene and perhaps even in response to increased CO2 forcing,

Rind, David↗

Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon Using Comprehensive Atmosphere-land Interactions, in the Absence of Two-way Air-sea Interactions

Community Land Model version 2 (CLM2) as a comprehensive land surface model and a simple land surface model (SLM) were coupled to an atmospheric climate model to investigate the role of land surface processes in the development and the persistence of the South Asian summer monsoon. Two-way air-sea interactions were not considered in order to identify the reproducibility of the monsoon evolution by the comprehensive land model, which includes more realistic vertical soil moisture structures, vegetation and 2-way atmosphere-land interactions at hourly intervals. In the monsoon development phase (May and June). comprehensive land-surface treatment improves the representation of atmospheric circulations and the resulting convergence/divergence through the improvements in differential heating patterns and surface energy fluxes. Coupling with CLM2 also improves the timing and spatial distribution of rainfall maxima, reducing the seasonal rainfall overestimation by approx.60 % (1.8 mm/d for SLM, 0.7 mm/dI for CLM2). As for the interannual variation of the simulated rainfall, correlation coefficients of the Indian seasonal rainfall with observation increased from 0.21 (SLM) to 0.45 (CLM2). However, in the mature monsoon phase (July to September), coupling with the CLM2 does not exhibit a clear improvement. In contrast to the development phase, latent heat flux is underestimated and sensible heat flux and surface temperature over India are markedly overestimated. In addition, the moisture fluxes do not correlate well with lower-level atmospheric convergence, yielding correlation coefficients and root mean square errors worse than those produced by coupling with the SLM. A more realistic representation of the surface temperature and energy fluxes is needed to achieve an improved simulation for the mature monsoon period.

Monsoon Precipitation↗

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to reduced precipitation. However, in the presence of increasing moist and warm air, the reduced coalescence/collision may lead to supercooled drops at higher altitudes where ice precipitation falls and melts. The latent heat release from freezing aloft and melting below implies greater upward heat transport in polluted clouds and invigorate deep convection. In this way, aerosols may lead to increased local convection. Hence, depending on the ambient large-scale conditions and dynamical feedback processes, aerosols' effect on precipitation can be positive, negative or mixed. In the Asian monsoon and adjacent regions, the aerosol forcing and responses of the water cycle are even more complex, Both direct and indirect effects may take place locally and simultaneously, interacting with each other. in addition to local effects, monsoon rainfall may be affected by aerosols transported from other regions and intensified through large-scale circulation and moisture feedback. Thus, dust transported by the large-scale circulation from the adjacent deserts to northern India may affect rainfall over the Bay of Bengal; sulphate and black carbon front industrial pollution in central, southern China and northern India may affect the rainfall regime over the Korean peninsula and Japan; organic and black carbon front biomass burning from Indo-China may modulate the pre-monsoon rainfall regime over southern China and coastal regions, contributing to variability in differential heating and cooling of the atmosphere and to the land-sea thermal contrast. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon breaks, it has been suggested that radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols have nearly the same order of magnitude as the forcing due to latent heating from convection and surface fluxes. The magnitude of the total aerosol radiative cooling due to sulphates and soot is of the order of 20-40 W/m2 over the Asian monsoon land region in the pre-monsoon season, compared to about 1-2 W/m2 for global warng. However, the combined forcing at the surface and in the atmosphere, including all species. if aerosols, and details of aerosol mixing, and impacts on the energy and water cycles in the monsoon land regions, are not well known.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Heat balances of the surface mixed layer in the equatorial Atlantic and Indian Ocean during FGGE

Surface meteorological and surface and subsurface oceanographic data collected during FGGE in the equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans are used to estimate the terms in a heat balance relation for the mixed layer. The first balance tested is between changes in mixed layer temperature (MLT) and surface energy fluxes. Away from regions of low variance in MLT time series and equatorial and coastal upwelling, surface fluxes can account for 75 percent of the variance in the observed time series. Differences between observed and estimated MLTs indicate that on the average, maximum errors in surface flux are of the order of 20 to 30 W/sq m. In the Atlantic, the addition of zonal advection does not significantly improve the estimates. However in regions of equatorial upwelling, the eastern Atlantic vertical mixing and meridional advection can play an important role in the evolution of MLTs.

Molinari, R. L.↗

Renewable Energy Contingencies in Power Systems: Concept and Case Study

This paper introduces the concept of renewable energy contingencies that represent long-term/extended variability of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, namely, significant periods (e.g., days/weeks) of low wind/solar availability. These contingencies have not received much attention to date but are likely to emerge as a major issue in some countries such as India as the share of VRE increases. Using 38 years of climate model reanalysis data for wind over India, we demonstrate that low periods of wind contingency below long-term (Indian) national average of 5 m/s can extend for more than 100 days in several zones some of which are deploying large wind farms. Even in some of the best wind resource areas in India with long term average wind speed close to 7 m/s, low wind days (e.g., 5 m/s which is substantially below average) can extend up to 60 days. We propose a four-step methodology around a co-optimization based energy-ancillary services dispatch model to assess the impact of renewable contingency and implemented it for the state of Tamil Nadu, the most wind-rich state of India. We have estimated that annual renewable contingency cost impact of 5 GW additional wind in Tamil Nadu to be in the range of US$27-76 million pa. Planning analysis should embrace the concept of renewable contingency to recognize these costs and put in place necessary spinning reserve and back-up generation resources.

Mohar Chattopadhyay↗

Development and qualification testing of a laser-ignited, all-secondary (DDT) detonator

The Indian Head Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center (IHDIV, NSWC) is conducting a qualification program for a laser-ignited, all-secondary (DDT) explosive detonator. This detonator was developed jointly by IHDIV, NSWC and the Department of Energy's EG&G Mound Applied Technologies facility in Miamisburg, Ohio to accept a laser initiation signal and produce a fully developed shock wave output. The detonator performance requirements were established by the on-going IHDIV, NSWC Laser Initiated Transfer Energy Subsystem (LITES) advanced development program. Qualification of the detonator as a component utilizing existing military specifications is the selected approach for this program. The detonator is a deflagration-to-detonator transfer (DDT) device using a secondary explosive, HMX, to generate the required shock wave output. The prototype development and initial system integration tests for the LITES and for the detonator were reported at the 1992 International Pyrotechnics Society Symposium and at the 1992 Survival and Flight Equipment National Symposium. Recent results are presented for the all-fire sensitivity and qualification tests conducted at two different laser initiation pulses.

Blachowski, Thomas J.↗

Social and Economic Impact of Solar Electricity at Schuchuli Village

Schuchuli, a small remote village on the Papago Indian Reservation in southwest Arizona, is 27 kilometers (17 miles) from the nearest available utility power. Its lack of conventional power is due to the prohibitive cost of supplying a small electrical load with a long-distance distribution line. Furthermore, alternate energy sources are expensive and place a burden on the resources of the villagers. On December 16, 1978, as part of a federally funded project, a solar cell power system was put into operation at Schuchuli. The system powers the village water pump, lighting for homes and other village buildings, family refrigerators and a communal washing machine and sewing machine.

Bifano, W. J.↗

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the active phase, the SCS was a strong sink (E-P much less than 0) of atmospheric moisture, with the primary source of moisture coming from regions further west over Indo-China and the eastern Indian Ocean. Before onset and during the break, the SCS was a moisture source (E-P greater than ) to the overlying atmosphere. In particular, the SCS provided the bulk of moisture to the torrential rain over the YRV in mid-June 1998.

Lau, William K.-M.↗

Numerical weather prediction in low latitudes

Based on the results of a number of numerical prediction experiments, the differential heating between land and ocean is an important and critical factor for investigation of phenomenon such as the onset of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. The pre-onset period during the month of May shows a rather persistent flow field in the monsoon region. At low levels the circulation exhibits anticyclonic excursions over the Arabian Sea, flowing essentially parallel to the west coast of India from the north. Over the Indian subcontinent the major feature is a shallow heat low over northern India. As the heat sources commence a rapid northwestward movement toward the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, an interesting configuration of the large-scale divergent circulation occurs. A favorable configuration for a rapid exchange of energy from the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy develops. Strong low level monsoonal circulations evolve, attendant with that the onset of monsoon rains occurs. In order to test this observational sequence, a series of short-range numerical prediction experiments were initiated to define the initial heat sources.

Krishnamurti, T. N.↗

Cloud-Radiative Driving of the Madden-Julian Oscillation as Seen by the A-Train

Cloud and water vapor radiative heating anomalies associated with convection may be an effective source of moist static energy driving the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this paper five years of radiative heating profiles derived from CloudSat radar and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation data are analyzed to document radiative heating anomalies during the MJO. Atmospheric shortwave absorption and surface longwave radiation anomalies are of opposite sign and 10-20% as large as top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies, confirming that OLR provides a useful estimate of the total column radiative heating anomaly. Positive anomalies generally peak about one week before the MJO peak and are smallest over the Indian Ocean. Anomalies over the Maritime Continent are strongest, and coincident with the MJO peak. Shortwave heating profile anomalies are about half as large as longwave anomalies in the active region of the MJO but generally of opposite sign; thus shortwave heating damps the longwave destabilization of the lower troposphere. The exception is the onset phase of the MJO, where shortwave and longwave heating anomalies due to thin cirrus are both positive in the upper troposphere and exert a stabilizing influence. Specific humidity anomalies in the middle troposphere reach 0.5 g kg(exp. -1), but the associated clear sky heating anomaly is very small. Radiative enhancement of column moist static energy becomes significant about 10 days before the MJO peak, when precipitation anomalies are still increasing, and then remains high after the MJO peak after precipitation has begun to decline.

symbols↗

NCAR CCM2 simulation of the modern Antarctic climate

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model version 2 (CCM2) simulation of the circumpolar trough, surface air temperature, the polar vortex, cloudiness, winds, and atmospheric moisture and energy budgets are examined to validate the model's representation of the present-day Antarctic climate. The results show that the CCM2 can well simulate many important climate features over Antarctica, such as the location and intensity of the circumpolar trough, the coreless winter over the plateau, the intensity and horizontal distribution of the surface inversion, the speed and streamline pattern of the katabatic winds, the double jet stream feature over the southern Indian and Pacific oceans, and the arid climate over the continent. However, there are also some serious errors in the model. Some are due to old problems but some are caused by the new parameterizations in the model. The model errors over high southern latitudes can be summarized as follows: The circumpolar trough, the polar vertex, and the westerlies in midlatitudes are too strong; the semiannual cycle of the circumpolar trough is distorted compared to the observations; the low centers of the circumpolar trough and the troughs in the middle and upper troposphere are shifted eastward by 15 deg - 40 deg longitude; the surface temperatures are too cold over the plateau in summer and over the coastline in winter; the polar tropopause continues to have a cold bias; and the cloudiness is too high over the continent. These biases are induced by two major factors: (1) the cloud optical properties in tropical and middle latitudes, which cause the eastward shift of troughs and surface low centers and the error in the semiannual cycle, and (2) the cold bias of the surface air temperature, which is attributed to the oversimulation of cloudiness over the continent, especially during summer, and the uniform 2-m-thick sea ice. The constant thickness of sea ice suppresses the energy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and hence reduces the air temperature near the coast during winter. Finally, although the simulated Antarctic climate still suffers these biases, the overall performance of the CCM2 is much better than that of the CCM1-T42. Therefore the CCM2 is good enough to be used for climate change studies, especially over Antarctica.

Tzeng, Ren-Yow↗

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Reale, O.↗

A preliminary theory of the origin of the 40-50 day oscillation

A theory of the 40 to 50 day oscillation in the tropical atmosphere which encompasses predominantly eastward propagation along the equator, spatial scales of wavenumber 1 and 2, slow time scales (20 to 70 days), and strong amplitude modulation in associated large-scale convective activity as a function of geographical location, i.e., pronounced convection is confined to the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, is presented. An initial disturbance generated near the equator disperses away from the source region, eastward by Kelvin waves and westward by Rossby waves. When the eastward disturbance passes over warm water it is expected to amplify by CISK due to enhanced supply of moisture from the ocean surface. Over cold water, its amplitude is expected to reduce due to decreased moisture supply. The climatological sea surface temperature contrast between the Indian Ocean/western Pacific and the eastern Pacific sets the spatial scale of the wave and its modulation to low wavenumbers and confines pronounced convection to the warm sector. If the eastward propagating wave can maintain itself over dissipation one circuit around the globe, it has a good chance to continue the process indefinitely, provided it is rejunvenated over the warm water with enough energy to go around for the next cycle.

Lau, K. M.↗

Characteristics of precipitation regimes during the global weather experiment

Rainfall data were used in conjunction with heating rate values obtained from GLA/NASA to describe large scale heating changes and concurrent circulation fluctuations for weekly averages during the Special Observing Period I (January-March 1979) of the Global Weather Experiment. The GLA diabatic heating rates were obtained as residues of the thermodynamic energy equation during the four-dimensional data assimilation cycle (as described by Kalnay and Baker, 1984). In week one, the heating and rainfall rate profiles display a positive anomaly on the West Pacific in both fields. The anomaly appears to propagate eastward into the East Pacific and South America by the fifth week. By the week four, the negative anomaly over the Indian Ocean becomes positive. These heating patterns are reflected on positive divergent anomalies at 200 mb analyzed for the same periods. The stream-function anomalies display anticyclonic circulations over the heating anomalies.

Ahrens, Glen D.↗

Tidal estimation in the Pacific with application to SEASAT altimetry

The techniques for computing the eigenfunctions of the velocity potential (Proudman functions) set out in Sanchez, et al. (1986) in relation to the Atlantic-Indian Oceans are here applied to the Pacific Ocean, using a 6x6 degree grid of 510 points (455 points for the associated stream functions). Normal modes are computed from the first Proudman functions and have natural periods from 43.9h downward. Tidal syntheses are derived from these modes by direct application of the (frictionless) dynamic equations and by least-squares fitting of Proudman functions to the dynamically interpolated tide-gauge data of Schwiderski (1983). The modes contributing the most energy to the principal harmonic tidal constituents are different in the two computations: their natural periods are typically in the range of 9 to 16h for semidiurnal, and 14 to 43h for diurnal tides. The rms of fit for the Proudman functions is, in all cases, better than the corresponding value for the same number of spherical harmonics.

Sanchez, Braulio V.↗

High Latitude Atmospheric Rivers: Teleconnections and Impacts

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale features that act as moisture transport vehicles by moving water vapor poleward. They are typically found in storm tracks and often have profound implications for regional hydroclimate. For high latitude locales such as Antarctica and the Arctic, ARs are fewer in number but often have an outsized impact by either producing significant snow accumulation events, or, depending on their thermal characteristics, initiating melt events on ice sheets, ice shelves, and sea ice. In this study, we apply both reanalysis and climate model data to evaluate high latitude ARs for both the Arctic and Antarctic in the context of teleconnections and modes of variability. Specifically, we fold in both MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis as well as historical and climate change simulations from the CESM2 (Community Earth System Model, Version 2) and E3SMv2 (Energy Exascale Earth System Model, v2) with multiple ensemble members to better understand natural variability versus climate change signals. An overview of AR climatology and impacts will be presented, including a baseline uncertainty quantification analysis using data from ARTMIP (the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project). AR impacts during specific modes of variability will be characterized by diagnosing precipitation and boundary layer temperature associated with Ars influencing the cryosphere. Modes of variability investigated include the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), PSA2 (Pacific South American Mode 2), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), and the AO (Arctic Oscillation).

Atmospheric Rivers↗