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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing dark matter isocurvature with primordial non-Gaussianity

Multiple fields can become dynamical during the inflationary epoch. We consider an example where a light field acquires isocurvature fluctuations during inflation and contributes to the dark matter abundance at late times. Interactions between the light field and the adiabatic sector contribute to mixed adiabatic-isocurvature non-Gaussianity (NG). We show the resulting form of NG has a different kinematic dependence than the `local shape' commonly considered, and highlight the parameter space where a dedicated search is expected to significantly improve the current Planck sensitivity. Here, we interpret our results in the context of the QCD axion and illustrate how the proposed NG searches can improve upon the existing searches for isocurvature power spectrum and bispectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peeking into the next decade in large-scale structure cosmology with its Effective Field Theory

After the successful full-shape analyses of BOSS data using the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure, we investigate what upcoming galaxy surveys might achieve. We introduce a “perturbativity prior” that ensures that loop terms are as large as theoretically expected, which is effective in the case of a large number of EFT parameters. After validating our technique by comparison with already-performed analyses of BOSS data, we provide Fisher forecasts using the one-loop prediction for power spectrum and bispectrum for two benchmark surveys: DESI and MegaMapper. We find overall great improvements on the cosmological parameters. In particular, we find that MegaMapper (DESI) should obtain at least a 12σ (2σ) evidence for non-vanishing neutrino masses, bound the curvature Ω k to 0.0012 (0.012), and primordial inflationary non-Gaussianities as follows: f NL loc. to ± 0.26 (3.3), f NL eq. to ±16 (92), f NL orth. to ± 4.2 (27). Such measurements would provide much insight on the theory of Inflation. We investigate the limiting factor of shot noise and ignorance of the EFT parameters.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from the large scale structure two-point and three-point correlation functions

Surveys of cosmological large-scale structure (LSS) are sensitive to the presence of local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), and may be used to constrain models of inflation. Local PNG, characterized by f NL ⁠, the amplitude of the quadratic correction to the potential of a Gaussian random field, is traditionally measured from LSS two-point and three-point clustering via the power spectrum and bi-spectrum. We propose a framework to measure f NL using the configuration space two-point correlation function (2pcf) monopole and three-point correlation function (3pcf) monopole of survey tracers. Our model estimates the effect of the scale-dependent bias induced by the presence of PNG on the 2pcf and 3pcf from the clustering of simulated dark matter haloes. We describe how this effect may be scaled to an arbitrary tracer of the cosmological matter density. The 2pcf and 3pcf of this tracer are measured to constrain the value of f NL ⁠. In LSS surveys, the effect of imaging systematics on two-point statistics is often degenerate with the PNG signal. Our proposed model employs three-point statistics primarily to break this degeneracy. Using simulations of luminous red galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), we demonstrate the accuracy and constraining power of our method. Our forecast indicates the ability to constrain f NL to a precision of σf NL ≈ 22 with one year of DESI survey data, as well as the ability to constrain the imaging systematic weights in situ.

early Universe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Plausible constraints and inflationary production for dark photons

Generic constraints on dark photons are generally presented assuming they have Stueckelberg masses. These constraints are strengthened if instead the mass is due to the Higgs mechanism and the dark Higgs is light. First, we show that under reasonable assumptions on the origin of kinetic mixing 𝜀 and perturbativity, the strengthened constraints on 𝜀 cannot be arbitrarily relaxed by making the Higgs heavy. Second, we demonstrate a simple mechanism for generating dark photon dark matter after inflation, where fluctuations of a dark Higgs by stochastic misalignment can produce stable dark photons through ℎ →𝐴′⁢𝐴′ decay. Third, we point out new lower bounds on 𝜀 in the case where the dark photon mediates thermal freeze-out of light dark matter by 𝑠-channel exchange, taking account of generic expectations for the size of 𝜀, and astrophysical upper bounds on the self-interaction cross section.

inflation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon‐negative hydrogen from ethanol via catalytic oxidative reforming

Abstract This study evaluated a commercial technology for producing low‐ or negative‐carbon hydrogen through ethanol catalytic oxidative reforming, focusing on the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, or carbon intensity (CI). Various scenarios were analyzed: (a) comparing corn ethanol (first‐generation or Gen1 ethanol) and cellulosic ethanol (second‐generation or Gen2 ethanol) as feedstocks; (b) assessing carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for CO 2 from upstream fermentation; and (c) evaluating oxygen sourcing via air separation units vs. on‐site or off‐site water electrolysis using a proton exchange membrane. Findings indicate that the CI for hydrogen production using Gen2 ethanol from corn stover is lower than that of Gen1 corn ethanol. Additionally, using proton exchange membrane‐generated oxygen results in a lower CI than air separation unit‐generated oxygen, regardless of the sourcing method. Implementing CCS for the hydrogen production plant's evolved CO 2 is essential for achieving a net‐negative CI for hydrogen from Gen1 ethanol. All examined scenarios, including both ethanol generations, oxygen sources, and CCS applications, demonstrated a net‐negative carbon intensity, surpassing the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions threshold of 0.45 kg CO 2 e/kg to enable policy credits as outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act §45V. In comparison, the CI for hydrogen from steam methane reforming stands at 3.4 kg CO 2 e/kg with CCS and 9.4 kg CO 2 e/kg without CCS.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal variation in methane ebullition in a temperate hydropower reservoir impacts annualized estimates

Estimates of ebullitive methane (CH4) emissions from reservoirs are highly uncertain, often based on spatial and temporal upscaling from a limited number of sampling sites and periods. While some of these estimates may adjust for seasonal variation in temperature, they rarely account for drawdown and the resulting changes in site depth and the areal extent of the reservoir. In Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA), we conducted monthly sampling of 20 sites over 1 year to capture temporal and spatial variation in CH4 ebullition. We then compared various approaches for obtaining annualized, whole-reservoir ebullition estimates. CH4 ebullition fluxes were zero-inflated and highly skewed, with fluxes rising appreciably above zero in July and peaking in autumn. Estimates that did not account for drawdown overestimated annualized rates by 20%, though with high uncertainty. Seasonal variability and hotspots strongly influence annualized ebullition estimates and are important to account for in inventories and global upscaling.

Cardall, Anna [Brigham Young University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding ERE and iVOC Metrics for Graded CdSeTe Absorbers

PL-based external radiative efficiency (ERE) and implied open-circuit voltage (iVOC) metrics were introduced for thin-film solar absorbers to better understand the voltage deficit and diagnose losses in solar cells. Traditionally, elevated ERE and iVOC measurements are associated with diminished recombination within the solar device, a rationale heavily reliant on the assumption of a uniform bandgap and high carrier mobilities in the absorber. Recently, very low mobilities in CdSeTe absorbers (< 1 cm2/(V.s)) were measured using the light-induced transient grading technique. In this study, we use a detailed numerical model of iVOC to investigate the possible reasons of elevated iVOC in realistic CdSeTe absorbers with a graded Se profile. In particular, we examine how the bandgap nonuniformity and the reduced hole mobility in graded CdSeTe absorbers affect iVOC measurements. We show that high iVOC may result from inflated quasi-Fermi level splitting in the high-Se region in the front part of a CdSeTe absorber with slow hole transport. We reproduce the experimentally reported 360 mV increase in iVOC-VOC gap with reduced doping using a model with sub-1 cm2/(V.s) hole mobility in the high-Se region. Based on our results, we conclude that the iVOC metric (or ERE metric) should not be used as a sole metric of CdSeTe absorber quality. We discuss possible ways to extract useful information from the iVOC-VOC gap by supplementing the front-side illumination measurements with back-side illumination measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

UnigeneFinder: An Automated Pipeline for Gene Calling From Transcriptome Assemblies Without a Reference Genome

ABSTRACT For most species, transcriptome data are much more readily available than genome data. Without a reference genome, gene calling is cumbersome and inaccurate because of the high degree of redundancy in de novo transcriptome assemblies. To simplify and increase the accuracy of de novo transcriptome assembly in the absence of a reference genome, we developed UnigeneFinder. Combining several clustering methods, UnigeneFinder substantially reduces the redundancy typical of raw transcriptome assemblies. This pipeline offers an effective solution to the problem of inflated transcript numbers, achieving a closer representation of the actual underlying genome. UnigeneFinder performs comparably or better, compared with existing tools, on plant species with varying genome complexities. UnigeneFinder is the only available transcriptome redundancy solution that fully automates the generation of primary transcript, coding region, and protein sequences, analogous to those available for high‐quality reference genomes. These features, coupled with the pipeline’s cross‐platform implementation, focus on automation, and an accessible, user‐friendly interface, make UnigeneFinder a useful tool for many downstream sequence‐based analyses in nonmodel organisms lacking a reference genome, including differential gene expression analysis, accurate ortholog identification, functional enrichments, and evolutionary analyses. UnigeneFinder also runs efficiently both on high‐performance computing (HPC) systems and personal computers, further reducing barriers to use.

Xue, Bo [Plant Resilience Institute Michigan State↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grand unification at the cosmological collider with chemical potential

We introduce a tree-level chemical potential mechanism for spin-1 particles within cosmological collider physics, allowing them to be detected in primordial non-Gaussianities for masses above the inflationary Hubble scale. We apply this mechanism to orbifold grand unification and the massive unification partners of the standard model gauge bosons. Our mechanism requires at least a pair of massive vector fields which are singlets of the standard model, a condition which is satisfied in the classic “trinification” scenario. Assuming that the gauge hierarchy problem is solved by supersymmetry, gauge coupling running points to unification partners at ~ 10$^{15}$ GeV. We show that, within high-scale inflation, chemical potential enhancement can lead to observably strong signals for trinification partners in future cosmological surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

TCC in the interior of moduli space and its implications for the string landscape and cosmology

We consider the classical Friedmann-Robertson-Walker solutions that describe a universe undergoing a transition from an accelerating expansion phase in the past to an eternal decelerating expansion phase in the future, driven by a scalar field evolving in a potential energy landscape. We show that any solution for which the accelerating phase violates the Trans-Planckian Censorship Conjecture (TCC), even in the interior of moduli space, never approaches the asymptotic vacuum with zero particles. Based on the assumption that the effective field theory must be valid for the vacuum on the asymptotic boundary, as motivated by holography and string theory, we argue that (multi-field) scalar potentials with such solutions are disallowed, thus strengthening the case for TCC. In particular, assuming the regularity of the future vacuum state in the string landscape, we derive results that imply a new set of highly-nonlinear constraints across the string landscape which in the absence of certain meta-stable vacua make realizing inflation impossible.

Cosmological models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microreactor-liquid metal battery system in energy markets: An evaluation of potential costs, technology, and policy impacts

Microreactors represent an emerging innovation in the nuclear industry; yet have been overshadowed by their high capital costs. With the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), new opportunities have emerged to improve the economics of microreactor systems. This work examines liquid metal batteries (LMB) as a value-adding technology as part of microreactor-LMB systems within three U.S. electricity markets: ERCOT, PJM, and MISO. Our investigation considers key uncertainties: the cost of microreactors, the performance of LMBs, and the eligible tax credit levels. To this end, we use a dispatch optimization to trace not only the changes in system economics but also to provide a granular picture of energy delivery within the systems. We find that even with favorable costs for microreactors, significant regional variations in the project sizing and returns exist across the markets. Our heuristic method identifies their non-electric application potentials beyond electricity and technical requirements to maximize returns. The results suggest that 12–39 % of reactor heat could be cost-effectively diverted to produce more valuable by-products in U.S. markets. Including the impacts of tax credits, we establish the outcomes of each provision with varying rates. Coupling an LMB to a microreactor consistently improves the net present value of a microreactor compared to its standalone operation. In conclusion, for reasonable assumed conditions, we quantify a heterogeneous impact of round-trip efficiency (RTE) and extended LMB service life across the three markets—a one-year extension in LMB service life is roughly equivalent to a 2.11 % improvement in RTE for ERCOT, 1.16 % for PJM, and 1.04 % for MISO.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Porosity in nuclear graphite and its impact on nuclear reactor science and criticality safety applications

Porosity in nuclear-grade graphite significantly influences its low-energy neutron scattering, yet its effect on underlying phonon properties remains debated. Here, this work integrates inelastic and small-angle neutron scattering (INS/SANS) experiments, advanced atomistic simulations with a novel machine-learned potential (DeepMD), total cross-section measurements, and neutronics calculations (SCALE, MCNP, OpenMC) to investigate porosity’s impact on neutron thermalization. INS measurements on diverse graphite grades reveal no discernible porosity effect on phonon spectra, which align with crystalline graphite. Conversely, total cross-section data below ≈10 meV show increased scattering attributable to SANS. Our DeepMD simulations demonstrate that realistic micropores do not distort phonon spectra, challenging the assumptions in current ENDF/B-VIII.1 porosity thermal scattering laws (TSLs). These TSLs, based on random atom removal, produce unphysical phonon spectra and inflate inelastic cross-sections. Augmenting a crystalline TSL with an SANS component accurately captures experimental total cross-sections. Neutronics benchmarks (ICSBEP/IRPhE) show ENDF porosity TSLs unphysically increase neutron multiplication factor, keff. Crucially, incorporating SANS physics (NCrystal/OpenMC) indicates accurately modeled porosity negligibly affects keff, reactor physics, or criticality safety.

Critical benchmarks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing Cretaceous-Paleogene crustal thickness in southern Tibet using quartz-zircon chronobarometry

Knowledge of the crustal thickness history of southern Tibet during the India-Asia collision is key to understanding what deformation mechanisms accommodated northward propagating crustal shortening. Thermoisotopic models suggest that a relatively thin margin of southern Asia persisted from ca. 200 to 45 Ma whereas trace element paleodepth proxies are interpreted to indicate a thinning phase from ca. 100 to 65 Ma when the crust reached ∼30 km-thickness. As neither of these methods directly measures crustal thickness, resolution of this conflict awaits development of a method that can. Here, in this study, we place bounds on the thickening history of southern Tibet using coupled quartz-zircon thermobarometry and U-Pb geochronology of granitoid plutons in the Gangdese batholith. We find that crustal thicknesses were as high (or higher) as 60–75 km at 65 Ma, or 10–15 Ma prior to the onset of hard continental collision. Magmatic inflation in the lower crust likely contributed to crustal thickening and thermal weakening of the lower crust, suggesting that pure shear in the lower crust was likely the primary accommodation mechanism for N-S shortening during collision. These data are in partial agreement with results of thermoisotopic models of crustal thickness but contradict thickness histories derived from empirical trace element proxies.

Chronobarometry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expanding market opportunities: cogeneration strategies for integrated PWR and thermal energy storage systems

We assess the economic viability of nuclear cogeneration by investigating three different modes—fixed dispatch, fully flexible dispatch, and flexible dispatch with minimum heat supply requirements. The analysis focuses on an existing pressurized water reactor (PWR) integrated with thermal energy storage (TES). Heat production costs are estimated under these modes for two U.S. electricity markets: the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland Interconnection (PJM). A sensitivity analysis examines profitability at varying heat market prices. Results indicate that fixed heat dispatch inflates heat production costs, often rendering projects economically feasible only at higher heat price levels. Fully-flexible dispatch lowers heat production costs by an average of 43 % compared to fixed dispatch. However, the current 30 % thermal dispatch limit may be insufficient to serve high baseline industrial demands cost‐effectively; higher maximum dispatch rates could enhance project economics. Markets with higher and more volatile electricity prices (e.g., ERCOT) offer greater total energy sales potential (i.e., heat and electricity), but also increase opportunity costs when heat production scheduling restrictions are imposed. In contrast, lower-price, less volatile markets (e.g., PJM) experience smaller impacts from such constraints and provide greater flexibility in accommodating varying cogeneration modes. In conclusion, these findings provide a framework to guide nuclear plant operators in aligning cogeneration strategies with industrial process requirements and electricity market conditions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated techno-economic framework for nuclear hydrogen production: assessing the role of high temperature steam electrolysis and safety considerations

This manuscript presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of nuclear integrated hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Given the significant role of hydrogen as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock, the research evaluates the feasibility of co-locating HTSE facilities with existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to enhance hydrogen production efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Here, the study highlights the advantages of HTSE over traditional low-temperature electrolysis, particularly in leveraging thermal and electrical energy from NPPs. A novel framework for hydrogen deployment is introduced, integrating hydrogen market analysis, techno-economic evaluation (TEA), and safety assessments. The findings underscore the economic viability of hydrogen production in light of current market conditions, including fluctuating natural gas prices and the impact of production tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. A case study in the Gulf Coast region demonstrates the potential for strategic hydrogen production to meet growing industrial demand while ensuring safety and regulatory compliance. Overall, this research contributes to the advancement of nuclear integrated hydrogen production as a sustainable energy solution.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗