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Statistical Analysis of daily mean temperatures

Data of daily mean temperatures recorded at the Kennedy Center during the period of 1957-1977 were analyzed to forecast daily mean temperatures and their thirty-day moving averages for a period of ten to fifteen days in a given month. Since it is found that the standard deviation is linear in the mean, a logarithmic transformation of the data is used for finding an integrated moving average process IMA by the Box-Jenkins aproach. The first differences of the transformed data seem to fit a moving average model with parameter value 2, MA(2). The consideration of seasonality factor makes the fit worse.

Ross, D. C.

Making it without losing it: Type A, achievement motivation, and scientific attainment revisited

In a study by Matthews et al. (1980), responses by academic psychologists to the Jenkins Activity Survey for Health Prediction, a measure of the Type A construct, were found to be significantly, positively correlated with two measures of attainment, citations by others to published work and number of publications. In the present study, JAS responses from the Matthews et al. sample were subjected to a factor analysis with oblique rotation and two new subscales were developed on the basis of this analysis. The first, Achievement Strivings (AS) was found to be significantly correlated with both the publication and citation measures. The second scale, Impatience and Irritability (I/I), was uncorrelated with the achievement criteria. Data from other samples indicate that I/I is related to a number of health symptoms. The results suggest that the current formulation of the Type A construct may contain two components, one associated with positive achievement and the other with poor health.

Helmreich, Robert L.

Impatience versus achievement strivings in the Type A pattern: Differential effects on students' health and academic achievement

Psychometric analyses of college students' responses to the Jenkins Activity Survey, a self-report measure of the Type A behavior pattern, revealed the presence of two relatively independent factors. Based on these analyses, two scales, labeled Achievement Strivings (AS) and Impatience and Irritability (II), were developed. In two samples of male and female college students, scores on AS but not on II were found to be significantly correlated with grade point average. Responses to a health survey, on the other hand, indicated that frequency of physical complaints was significantly correlated with II but not with AS. These results suggest that there are two relatively independent factors in the Type A pattern that have differential effects on performance and health. Future research on the personality factors related to coronary heart disease and other disorders might more profitably focus on the syndrome reflected in the II scale than on the Type A pattern.

Spence, Janet T.

The application of time series models to cloud field morphology analysis

A modeling method for the quantitative description of remotely sensed cloud field images is presented. A two-dimensional texture modeling scheme based on one-dimensional time series procedures is adopted for this purpose. The time series procedure used is the seasonal autoregressive, moving average (ARMA) process in Box and Jenkins. Cloud field properties such as directionality, clustering and cloud coverage can be retrieved by this method. It has been demonstrated that a cloud field image can be quantitatively defined by a small set of parameters and synthesized surrogates can be reconstructed from these model parameters. This method enables cloud climatology to be studied quantitatively.

Chin, Roland T.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

This Standard presents descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. Use of this Standard is not mandatory; however, it should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend Analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology, but rather connotes, generally, quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this Standard. The document presents the basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends, together with relevant examples. A list of references provides additional sources of information.

Source record

Are relative depletions altered inside diffuse clouds?

The data of Jenkins, Savage, and Spitzer (1986) were used to analyze interstellar abundances and depletions of Fe, P, Mg, and Mn toward 37 stars, spanning nearly 1.0 (dex) in mean line-of-sight depletion. It was found that the depletions of these elements are linearly correlated and do not show evidence of differences in the rates of depletion or sputtering from one element to another. For a given level of overall depletion, the sightline-to-sightline rms variance in the depletion for each of these elements was less than 0.16 (dex), which is significantly smaller than is the element-to-element variance. The results suggest that, for most diffuse lines of sight, the relative abundances of these elements are set early in the lifetime of the grains and are not altered significantly thereafter.

Joseph, Charles L.

Trends and individual differences in response to short-haul flight operations

A survey of airline pilots was undertaken to determine normative patterns and individual differences in mood and sleep during short-haul flight operations. The results revealed that over the course of a typical 2-d trip, pilots experience a decline in positive mood, or activity, and an increase in negative mood, or tension. On layovers, pilots report experiencing sleep of shorter duration and poorer quality than at home. These patterns are very similar to those reported by Gander and Graeber (1987) and by Gander et al. (1988), using high-fidelity sleep and activity monitoring equipment. Examination of the impact of two personality dimensions extracted from the Jenkins Activity Survey measure of the Type A personality, Achievement Striving and Impatience/Irritability, suggested that Impatience/Irritability may serve as a marker of individuals most likely to experience health-related problems on trips. Achievement Striving may serve as a predictor of performance in crew settings.

Chidester, Thomas R.

Neutral atomic absorption lines and far-UV extinction: Possible implications for depletions and grain parameters

Researchers examine nine lines of sight within the Galaxy and one in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) for which data on both neutral atomic absorption lines (Snow 1984; White 1986; Welty, Hobbs, and York 1989) and far UV extinction (Bless and Savage 1972; Jenkins, Savage, and Spitzer 1986) are available, in order to test the assumption that variations in gamma/alpha will cancel in taking ratios of the ionization balance equation, and to try to determine to what extent that assumption has affected the aforementioned studies of depletions and grain properties.

Welty, Daniel E.

Empirical relationships between gas abundances and UV selective extinction

Several studies of gas-phase abundances in lines of sight through the outer edges of dense clouds are summarized. These lines of sight have 0.4 less than E(B-V) less than 1.1 and have inferred spatial densities of a few hundred cm(-3). The primary thrust of these studies has been to compare gaseous abundances in interstellar clouds that have various types of peculiar selective extinction. To date, the most notable result has been an empirical relationship between the CN/Fe I abundance ratio and the depth of the 2200 A extinction bump. It is not clear at the present time, however, whether these two parameters are linearly correlated or the data are organized into two discrete ensembles. Based on 19 samples and assuming the clouds form discrete ensembles, lines of sight that have a CN/Fe I abundance ratio greater than 0.3 (dex) appear to have a shallow 2.57 plus or minus 0.55 bump compared to 3.60 plus or minus 0.36 for other dense clouds and compared to the 3.6 Seaton (1979) average. The difference in the strength of the extinction bump between these two ensembles is 1.03 plus or minus 0.23. Although a high-resolution IUE survey of dense clouds is far from complete, the few lines of sight with shallow extinction bumps all show preferential depletion of certain elements, while those lines of sight with normal 2200 A bumps do not. Ca II, Cr II, and Mn II appear to exhibit the strongest preferential depletion compared to S II, P II, and Mg II. Fe II and Si II depletions also appear to be enhanced somewhat in the shallow-bump lines of sight. It should be noted that Copernicus data suggest all elements, including the so-called nondepletors, deplete in diffuse clouds (Snow and Jenkins 1980, Joseph 1988). Those lines of sight through dense clouds that have normal 2200 A extinction bumps appear to be extensions of the depletions found in the diffuse interstellar medium. That is, the overall level of depletion is enhanced, but the element-to-element abundances are similar to those in diffuse clouds. In a separate study, the abundances of neutral atoms were studied in a dense cloud having a shallow 2200 A bump and in one with a normal strength bump.

Joseph, Charles L.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

Descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications are presented in this standard. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. This document should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology: it generally connotes quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this document. The basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends along with relevant examples are presented.

Source record

An Optical Altitude Indicator for Night Landing

One of the most ingenious of the devices intended for use in night landing, especially emergency landing, is a very simple optical instrument known as the Jenkins night altitude indicator. The design and operation of this instrument, which allows a pilot to determine the altitude of the aircraft, is discussed. The author discusses various modifications and improvements that might be made to the instrument.

Warner, John A C

Hot gas in the interstellar medium: A reanalysis of O VI absorption data

The Copernicus O(+5) column densities toward 72 stars provide a rare and valuable tracer of 10(exp 5.5) K gas in the interstellar medium. The original analysis of the data by Jenkins provided important clues about the distribution of interstellar O(+5) ions, but our understanding of the local interstellar medium has since grown substantially. We revisit that work, including the possibility that local hot gas may contribute a significant O(+5) column density to most lines of sight. Our reanalysis also includes slight improvements in the statistics and was found to be reliable when tested on simulated data sets. In the end, we come to conclusions about the distribution of interstellar O(+5) ions that differ considerably from those of the original analysis. With our reanalysis, some theoretical models now show promise. For example, our Local Bubble column density compares favorably with the estimated quantity of O(+5) within the remnant of an ancient local explosion. Similarly, our mean O(+5) column density per feature in more distant regions is like that found in models of hot interstellar bubbles from either stellar winds or ancient supernova explosions in a warm diffuse interstellar environment, suggesting that the hot gas in interstellar space may exist primarily within discrete regions of modest volume occupation rather than in a continuous and pervasive phase.

Shelton, R. L.

Coronal gas in the Galactic halo: ORFEUS observations of NGC 346 #1

We present high resolution (lambda/delta lambda = 3000) observations of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) star NGC 346 #1 near the O VI resonance doublet (1031.9, 1037.6 A). The data were collected with the Berkeley extreme/far ultraviolet (EUV/FUV) spectrometer in the ORFEUS telescope aboard the space platform Astro-SPAS during the missiom of space shuttle Discovery flown in September 1993. The O VI features shows broad absorption centered near nu(sub LSR) is approximately equal to +140 km/sec. This is almost certainly associated with the OB cluster NGC 346 itself, which also shows deep absorption at Si IV and C IV at comparable velocities. An absorption feature corresponding to O VI near nu(sub LSR) = -230 km/sec is present in our data, but this feature is caused by contamination from a second star, probably an early B-type main sequence star at lower standard of rest (LSR) velocity, which is also present in the 20 min circular aperture. Between these velocity extrema lies one broad feature (b is approximately equal 70 km/sec) or multiple narrower features, with a combined column density of about 1.4 x 10(exp 14)/sq cm. Assuming an exponential distribution of O VI with the in-plane density of Jenkins, we infer a scale height, H(sub 0), of no more than approximately equal 1.2 kpc toward NGC 346 #1. Our O VI column density is about a factor of 4 below the predictions of cooling fountain models, but our low scale height is consistent with more recent predictions.

Hurwitz, M.

Stochastic Modeling of Airlines' Scheduled Services Revenue

Airlines' revenue generated from scheduled services account for the major share in the total revenue. As such, predicting airlines' total scheduled services revenue is of great importance both to the governments (in case of national airlines) and private airlines. This importance stems from the need to formulate future airline strategic management policies, determine government subsidy levels, and formulate governmental air transportation policies. The prediction of the airlines' total scheduled services revenue is dealt with in this paper. Four key components of airline's scheduled services are considered. These include revenues generated from passenger, cargo, mail, and excess baggage. By addressing the revenue generated from each schedule service separately, air transportation planners and designers are able to enhance their ability to formulate specific strategies for each component. Estimation results clearly indicate that the four stochastic processes (scheduled services components) are represented by different Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The results demonstrate the appropriateness of the developed models and their ability to provide air transportation planners with future information vital to the planning and design processes.

Hamed, M. M.

Stochastic Modeling of Airlines' Scheduled Services Revenue

Airlines' revenue generated from scheduled services account for the major share in the total revenue. As such, predicting airlines' total scheduled services revenue is of great importance both to the governments (in case of national airlines) and private airlines. This importance stems from the need to formulate future airline strategic management policies, determine government subsidy levels, and formulate governmental air transportation policies. The prediction of the airlines' total scheduled services revenue is dealt with in this paper. Four key components of airline's scheduled services are considered. These include revenues generated from passenger, cargo, mail, and excess baggage. By addressing the revenue generated from each schedule service separately, air transportation planners and designers arc able to enhance their ability to formulate specific strategies for each component. Estimation results clearly indicate that the four stochastic processes (scheduled services components) are represented by different Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The results demonstrate the appropriateness of the developed models and their ability to provide air transportation planners with future information vital to the planning and design processes.

Hamed, M. M.

Progress in Navier-Stokes Simulation of Delta Wing Maneuver Aerodynamics

This paper will summarize recent progress in the numerical simulation of high incidence vortical flow about a generic 65 degree sweep delta wing using the three dimensional, time-dependent, Reynolds averaged, Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. Computations have been carried out at 15 and 30 degrees angle of attack under subsonic turbulent flow conditions, and compared with experimental data provided by Hanff, Jenkins, and their colleagues. This work has already been published elsewhere and widely disseminated. Computations carried out at 15 degrees angle of attack included static roll angles ranging up to 65 degrees, and a large-amplitude (40 degree), high rate (7 Hz), forced roll motion. There was very good agreement between computed and experimental forces and moments, and static surface pressures. There was a significant hysteresis of the dynamic rolling moment due to the high rate of roll motion. At this angle of attack, no vortex breakdown was observed in the computations or experiment. Computations were also carried out at 30 degrees angle of attack, where vortex breakdown was present in both the computations and experiment. There was overall good agreement in the computed and experimental forces and moments. The static rolling moment varied with roll angle in a highly nonlinear manner, and exhibited three stable trim points and two unstable trim points. This behavior was attributed to the presence of vortex breakdown. Two large-amplitude (30 degrees), high-rate (10 Hz) forced roll motions were computed. The dynamics of the vortex breakdown motion was dramatically visualized by tracking the time-dependent motion of particles released near the delta wing apex. This numerical visualization is analogous to experimental smoke flow techniques. In one of the dynamic cases the breakdown was found to move off the wing, convected downwind of the trailing edge, and later reformed near the trailing edge through an instability of the vortex core. A damped free-to-roll motion was also computed by releasing the wing from rest at 40 degrees of roll. The wing went to the same trim point as in the experiment.

Chaderjian, Neal M.

Making it without losing it: Type A, achievement motivation, and scientific attainment revisited

In a study by Matthews, Helmreich, Beane, and Lucker (1980), responses by academic psychologists to the Jenkins Activity Survey for Health Prediction (JAS), a measure of the Type A construct, were found to be significantly, positively correlated with two measures of attainment, citations by others to published work and number of publications. In the present study, JAS responses from the Matthews et al. sample were subjected to a factor analysis with oblique rotation and two new subscales were developed on the basis of this analysis. The first, Achievement Strivings (AS) was found to be significantly correlated with both the publication and citation measures. The second scale, Impatience and Irritability (I/I), was uncorrelated with the achievement criteria. Data from other samples indicate that I/I is related to a number of health symptoms. The results suggest that the current formulation of the Type A construct may contain two components, one associated with positive achievement and the other with poor health.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors

Trends and individual differences in response to short-haul fight operations

A survey of airline pilots was undertaken to determine normative patterns and individual differences in mood and sleep during short-haul flight operations. The results revealed that over the course of a typical 2-d trip, pilots experience a decline in positive mood, or activity, and an increase in negative mood, or tension. On layovers, pilots report experiencing sleep of shorter duration and poorer quality than at home. These patterns are very similar to those reported by Gander and Graeber and by Gander et al. using high-fidelity sleep and activity monitoring equipment. Examination of the impact of two personality dimensions extracted from the Jenkins Activity Survey measure of the Type A personality, Achievement Striving and Impatience/Irritability, suggested that Impatience/Irritability may serve as a marker of individuals most likely to experience health-related problems on trips. Achievement Striving may serve as a predictor of performance in crew settings.

Aircraft