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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Accelerated Monte Carlo Fission Source Convergence with Fission Matrix and Kernel Density Estimators

Accurate solution of the k-eigenvalue form of the Boltzmann radiation transport equation is required in many application areas, including nuclear reactor analysis and criticality safety. Monte Carlo calculations are free of the discretization errors inherent to deterministic methods and therefore offer the most accurate solutions. However, converging the fission source can be difficult for many problems, resulting in either a substantial computational overhead or potential inaccuracies that negate many of the benefits of using Monte Carlo methods. Difficulty in converging the fission source occurs for two distinct reasons. The first is the existence of a high dominance ratio in the problem (i.e. the largest and second largest eigenvalues have approximately the same magnitude). The second difficulty arises due to undersampling of the fission source because an insufficient number of particle histories are simulated. The first difficulty is shared by deterministic solvers when using power iteration, while the second difficulty is unique to Monte Carlo solvers. In practice, both difficulties may be present in the same problem, compounding the difficulty in achieving a converged distribution. In this paper, we consider a new approach to accelerate the convergence of the fission source based on combining the use of fission matrix methods with kernel density estimators (KDEs). It has been observed that deterministic fission matrix methods show the potential to accelerate the convergence of the fission source in Monte Carlo criticality calculations but may introduce significant additional noise for difficult problems. In this paper, we have demonstrated the use of a KDE approach in combination with the fission matrix acceleration. Although the addition of the KDE initially slows the convergence of the fission matrix acceleration, it decreases the magnitude of the noise while still offering significantly improved convergence relative to analog Monte Carlo. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Non-Parametric Density Estimation Approach to Measuring Beam Cooling in MICE

The goal of the international Muon Ionization Cooling Experiment (MICE) is to demonstrate muon beam ionization cooling for the first time. It constitutes a key part of the R&D towards a future neutrino factory or muon collider. The intended MICE precision requires the development of analysis tools that can account for any effects (e.g., optical aberrations) which may lead to inaccurate cooling measurements. Non-parametric density estimation techniques, in particular, kernel density estimation (KDE), allow very precise calculations of the muon beam phase-space density and its increase as a result of cooling. In this study, kernel density estimation technique and its application to measuring the reduction in MICE muon beam phase-space volume is investigated.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Foundations of Feature Selection and Classification for Non-Gaussian Distributed Targets

This report describes the author’s research toward creating algorithms for selecting useful statistical features in pattern/target classification problems in which the features are non-Gaussian distributed. In engineering practice, it is common to either (1) Not perform any feature selection procedure, or (2) Use a feature selection algorithm that assumes the features are Gaussian distributed. This process can be far from optimal if the data are actually non-Gaussian, as they frequently are in practice. This research has the goal of mitigating that problem by creating a useful algorithm that can be used in practice. The approach is to focus on the performance indices used in common feature selection algorithms, such as Branch and Bound algorithms and the Sequential Forward Selection Algorithm. Ordinarily, the performance index used to measure the class separation in feature space involves assuming the data are Gaussian and deriving tractable performance indices that use closed form equations that represent the probability density functions of the class data. The advantage of this approach is that it produces feature selection algorithms that have low computational complexity and do not require knowledge of the actual data densities. The disadvantage is that these algorithms may not perform reasonably when the data are non-Gaussian, as they commonly are in practice. This research examines the use of information-theoretic class separability measures that can deal with the non-Gaussian case. In particular, this work shows that the Hellinger Distance (a divergence measure), has very desirable mathematical properties and can be useful for feature selection. The work in this paper employs a multivariate kernel density estimator along with the Hellinger Distance and an optimal subset selection algorithm to do feature selection. This report (1) Defines the classification and feature selection problems, (2) Describes the continuous variable Hellinger distance in one dimension and discusses its mathematical properties in comparison with other distance measures, (3) Develops the discrete variable Hellinger distance expression for one and two dimensions, and shows that the discrete Hellinger distance for multiple dimensions is a straightforward extension, and (4) Presents experimental density estimation results using a new MATLAB implementation of a multivariate kernel density estimator. The draft of this report served as a starting point for Ensign Matthew Wilder’s MSEE thesis work at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in 2010 and 2011. Ensign Wilder completed his thesis and graduated from NPS in June 2011 (M. J. Wilder, “Automatic Target Recognition: Statistical Feature Selection of Non-Gaussian Distributed Target Classes,” MSEE Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Thesis Advisor: Grace A. Clark, Second Reader: Monique P. Fargues, June 2011). In the thesis, Ensign Wilder created implementations of the Branch and Bound and Sequential Feature Selection algorithms, extended the multivariate kernel density estimator code, and evaluated the performance of Hellinger Distance-based feature selection algorithms using both simulated data and data from a real-world benchmark data set. The new algorithm was shown to be very effective for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian data sets. The advantages gained for non-Gaussian data come at the cost of increased computational complexity. Using a laptop computer for practical problems, we generally use initial feature vectors containing no more than about ten or twelve features. Proposed future research lies in creating faster kernel density estimator algorithms that would allow for the use of higher dimensional data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling error PDF optimization based wavelet neural network modeling of dynamic system and its application in blast furnace ironmaking

In general, the modeling errors of dynamic system model are a set of random variables. The traditional performance index of modeling such as means square error (MSE) and root means square error (RMSE) can not fully express the connotation of modeling errors with stochastic characteristics both in the dimension of time domain and space domain. Therefore, the probability density function (PDF) is introduced to completely describe the modeling errors in both time scales and space scales. Based on it, a novel wavelet neural network (WNN) modeling method is proposed by minimizing the two-dimensional (2D) PDF shaping of modeling errors. First, the modeling error PDF by the tradional WNN is estimated using data-driven kernel density estimation (KDE) technique. Then, the quadratic sum of 2D deviation between the modeling error PDF and the target PDF is utilized as performance index to optimize the WNN model parameters by gradient descent method. Since the WNN has strong nonlinear approximation and adaptive capability, and all the parameters are well optimized by the proposed method, the developed WNN model can make the modeling error PDF track the target PDF, eventually. Simulation example and application in a blast furnace ironmaking process show that the proposed method has a higher modeling precision and better generalization ability compared with the conventional WNN modeling based on MSE criteria. Furthermore, the proposed method has more desirable estimation for modeling error PDF that approximates to a Gaussian distribution whose shape is high and narrow.

Modelling↗
NASA NTRS2003

Density Estimation with Mercer Kernels

We present a new method for density estimation based on Mercer kernels. The density estimate can be understood as the density induced on a data manifold by a mixture of Gaussians fit in a feature space. As is usual, the feature space and data manifold are defined with any suitable positive-definite kernel function. We modify the standard EM algorithm for mixtures of Gaussians to infer the parameters of the density. One benefit of the approach is it's conceptual simplicity, and uniform applicability over many different types of data. Preliminary results are presented for a number of simple problems.

Macready, William G.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat Use and Population Demographics at the Simpson Ridge Wind Resource Area, Carbon County, Wyoming

This study was conducted to obtain baseline data on use of the proposed Simpson Ridge Wind Resource Area (SRWRA) in Carbon County, Wyoming by greater sage-grouse. The first two study years were designed to determine pre-construction seasonally selected habitats and population-level vital rates (productivity and survival). The presence of an existing wind energy facility in the project area, the PacifiCorp Seven Mile Hill (SMH) project, allowed us to obtain some information on initial sage-grouse response to wind turbines the first two years following construction. To our knowledge these are the first quantitative data on sage-grouse response to an existing wind energy development. This report presents results of the first two study years (April 1, 2009 through March 30, 2011). This study was selected for continued funding by the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative Sage-Grouse Collaborative (NWCC-SGC) and has been ongoing since March 30, 2011. Future reports summarizing results of this research will be distributed through the NWCC-SGC. To investigate population trends through time, we determined the distribution and numbers of males using leks throughout the study area, which included a 4-mile radius buffer around the SRWRA. Over the 2-year study, 116 female greater sage-grouse were captured by spotlighting and use of hoop nets on roosts surrounding leks during the breeding period. Radio marked birds were located anywhere from twice a week to once a month, depending on season. All radio-locations were classified to season. We developed predictor variables used to predict success of fitness parameters and relative probability of habitat selection within the SRWRA and SMH study areas. Anthropogenic features included paved highways, overhead transmission lines, wind turbines and turbine access roads. Environmental variables included vegetation and topography features. Home ranges were estimated using a kernel density estimator. We developed resource selection functions (RSF) to estimate probability of selection within the SRWRA and SMH. Fourteen active greater sage-grouse leks were documented during lek surveys Mean lek size decreased from 37 in 2008 to 22 in 2010. Four leks located 0.61, 1.3, 1.4 and 2.5 km from the nearest wind turbine remained active throughout the study, but the total number of males counted on these four leks decreased from 162 the first year prior to construction (2008), to 97 in 2010. Similar lek declines were noted in regional leks not associated with wind energy development throughout Carbon County. We obtained 2,659 sage-grouse locations from radio-equipped females, which were used to map use of each project area by season. The sage-grouse populations within both study areas are relatively non-migratory, as radio-marked sage-grouse used similar areas during all annual life cycles. Potential impacts to sage-grouse from wind energy infrastructure are not well understood. The data rom this study provide insight into the early interactions of wind energy infrastructure and sage-grouse. Nest success and brood-rearing success were not statistically different between areas with and without wind energy development in the short-term. Nest success also was not influenced by anthropogenic features such as turbines in the short-term. Additionally, female survival was similar among both study areas, suggesting wind energy infrastructure was not impacting female survival in the short-term; however, further analysis is needed to identify habitats with different levels of risk to better understand the impact of wind energy development on survival. Nest and brood-rearing habitat selection were not influenced by turbines in the short-term; however, summer habitat selection occurred within habitats closer to wind turbines. Major roads were avoided in both study areas and during most of the seasons. The impact of transmission lines varied among study areas, suggesting other landscape features may be influencing selection. The data provided in this report are preliminary and are not meant to provide a basis for forming any conclusions regarding potential impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse. Although the data collected during the initial phases of this study indicate that greater sage-grouse may continue to use habitats near wind-energy facilities, research conducted on greater sage-grouse response to oil and gas development has found population declines may not occur until 2-10 years after development. Therefore, long-term data from several geographic areas within the range of the sage-grouse will likely be required to adequately assess impacts of wind-energy development on greater sage-grouse.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient screening of rare large pit anomalies on polished surfaces using a minimalist sampling scheme

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has made significant strides in generating clean energy through its inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. These experiments rely on high-density carbon (HDC) coated shells to encapsulate the fusion fuel. The success of these experiments is heavily dependent on the surface quality of these shells, as even minor imperfections, such as deep pits, can negatively impact fusion yield. Ensuring the required smoothness involves an extensive surface-finishing process that spans approximately 20 stages, making it both time-intensive and resource-demanding. A critical challenge in this process is the need for high-resolution scans to detect rare deep pits, which can be costly and impractical if performed on every shell. This highlights the necessity of developing more efficient scanning methods to optimize time and cost without compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach that employs the multivariate Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality to provide a probabilistic upper bound on the error in estimating pit distribution characteristics via a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). This error bound enables efficient and reliable estimation of pit distribution characteristics at a specified statistical confidence level using a minimal number of surface scans. The integrated DKW-KDE approach was validated through surface-finishing experiments across two batches of HDC-coated shells, demonstrating consistent and robust performance across multiple stages of the surface-finishing experiments. The validation studies suggest that the integrated DKW-KDE approach achieves comparable accuracy in estimating the risk of deleterious large pits with six scans, thus conserving time and resources. Further evaluations show that performance remains consistent across batches and over multiple polishing stages. In conclusion, based on these findings, one can leverage the minimal-scan insights to strategically improve the bottleneck inspection process, thus enhancing the productivity and quality of shell polishing and similar challenging manufacturing processes.

Inertial confinement fusion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Next-Cycle Optimal Fuel Control for Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Reduction in EGR-Diluted Combustion

In this simulation study, cycle-to-cycle fuel control was used to reduce CCV by injecting additional fuel in operating conditions with sporadic misfires and partial burns. An optimal control policy was proposed that utilizes 1) a physics-based model that tracks in-cylinder gas composition and 2) a one-step-ahead prediction of the combustion efficiency based on a kernel density estimator. The optimal solution, however, presents a tradeoff between the reduction in combustion CCV and the increase in fuel injection quantity required to stabilize the charge. Such a tradeoff can be ad- just by a single parameter embedded in the cost function.

Maldonado, BryanP. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2013

Improved statistical models for limited datasets in uncertainty quantification using stochastic collocation

This paper presents a data-driven framework for performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) by choosing a stochastic model that accurately describes the sources of uncertainty in a system. This model is propagated through an appropriate response surface function that approximates the behavior of this system using stochastic collocation. Given a sample of data describing the uncertainty in the inputs, our goal is to estimate a probability density function (PDF) using the kernel moment matching (KMM) method so that this PDF can be used to accurately reproduce statistics like mean and variance of the response surface function. Instead of constraining the PDF to be optimal for a particular response function, we show that we can use the properties of stochastic collocation to make the estimated PDF optimal for a wide variety of response functions. We contrast this method with other traditional procedures that rely on the Maximum Likelihood approach, like kernel density estimation (KDE) and its adaptive modification (AKDE). We argue that this modified KMM method tries to preserve what is known from the given data and is the better approach when the available data is limited in quantity. We test the performance of these methods for both univariate and multivariate density estimation by sampling random datasets from known PDFs and then measuring the accuracy of the estimated PDFs, using the known PDF as a reference. Comparing the output mean and variance estimated with the empirical moments using the raw data sample as well as the actual moments using the known PDF, we show that the KMM method performs better than KDE and AKDE in predicting these moments with greater accuracy. This improvement in accuracy is also demonstrated for the case of UQ in electrostatic and electrothermomechanical microactuators. We show how our framework results in the accurate computation of statistics in micromechanical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗