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Arctic Tropospheric Ozone: Assessment of Current Knowledge and Model Performance
As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O3 depletion in the springtime; however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been previously reported, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models or improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O3 by 5 % to 15 % depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O3 within a range of ±50 % depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within ±8 % for most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O3 near the tropopause (∼300 hPa or ∼8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20 % at Eureka. Observed and simulated O3 precursors (CO, NOx, and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NOx but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O3 matches the observed O3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade, model results are as highly variable as ever and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric O3.
An AI-based approach to structural damage identification by modal analysis
Flexible-structure damage is presently addressed by a combined model- and parameter-identification approach which employs the AI methodologies of classification, heuristic search, and object-oriented model knowledge representation. The conditions for model-space search convergence to the best model are discussed in terms of search-tree organization and initial model parameter error. In the illustrative example of a truss structure presented, the use of both model and parameter identification is shown to lead to smaller parameter corrections than would be required by parameter identification alone.
Construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models using knowledge-based techniques
Over the past three decades, computer-based simulation models have proven themselves to be cost-effective alternatives to the more structured deterministic methods of systems analysis. During this time, many techniques, tools and languages for constructing computer-based simulation models have been developed. More recently, advances in knowledge-based system technology have led many researchers to note the similarities between knowledge-based programming and simulation technologies and to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based programming techniques to simulation modeling. The integration of conventional simulation techniques with knowledge-based programming techniques is discussed to provide a development environment for constructing knowledge-based simulation models. A comparison of the techniques used in the construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models and those used in the construction of knowledge-based systems provides the requirements for the environment. This leads to the design and implementation of a knowledge-based simulation development environment. These techniques were used in the construction of several knowledge-based simulation models including the Advanced Launch System Model (ALSYM).
Automatic Incorporation of Flaws into Cad and FEA Models Based On Measured NDE Data
Automatic incorporation of non-destructive evaluation (NDE) data into CAD and finite element (FE) models for structural analysis is essential for accurate residual-life and strength analyses of composite structures. Currently, two significant but independent challenges exist for incorporating NDE data in such analyses: interpretation of the NDE signals to locate and characterize the structural defects and the incorporation of that information into structural analysis tools. The first challenge will be addressed through linear inversion of calculated synthetic responses generated by a simulation engine to evaluate flaw size, location, and other characteristics. The second challenge will be addressed by building on prior and parallel defect modeling efforts to integrate suitable flaw models into the CAD/finite-element representation of a specimen. Ultrasonic NDE information is usually represented using C-Scans of time-of-flight or intensity information. Other modalities such as thermography and computed tomography (CT) could also be used to characterize the structure. This information will first be projected into material coordinates and then aligned with the specimen’s finite element mesh. The NDE data can then be incorporated by inserting flaw geometry into the CAD and FE analysis model and automatic modification of local material properties and boundary conditions. This process will enable the use of structural analysis tools even for practical modalities such as ultrasound and thermography which may not directly give accurate-enough geometric information to fully define the flaw. The full flaw characteristics will be inferred using prior expert and modeling knowledge to categorize flaw signatures. Outputs for this project will include demonstrated methods for creating structural analysis geometric models that incorporate flaw characterization information; these models can then be used directly in popular commercial FEA software. In addition, the primary deliverable for the project will include a software that will be able to automatically incorporate different kinds of flaws into an existing FE models. The models will be generated in standard file formats to enable direct import into the analysis software.
Black Carbon Concentration from Worldwide Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)
Worldwide black carbon concentration measurements are needed to assess the efficacy of the carbon emissions inventory and transport model output. This requires long-term measurements in many regions, as model success in one region or season does not apply to all regions and seasons. AERONET is an automated network of more than 180 surface radiometers located throughout the world. The sky radiance measurements obtained by AERONET are inverted to provide column-averaged aerosol refractive indices and size distributions for the AERONET database, which we use to derive column-averaged black carbon concentrations and specific absorptions that are constrained by the measured radiation field. This provides a link between AERONET sky radiance measurements and the elemental carbon concentration of transport models without the need for an optics module in the transport model. Knowledge of both the black carbon concentration and aerosol absorption optical depth (i.e., input and output of the optics module) will enable improvements to the transport model optics module.
Experiments in structural dynamics and control using a grid
Future spacecraft are being conceived that are highly flexible and of extreme size. The two features of flexibility and size pose new problems in control system design. Since large scale structures are not testable in ground based facilities, the decision on component placement must be made prior to full-scale tests on the spacecraft. Control law research is directed at solving problems of inadequate modelling knowledge prior to operation required to achieve peak performance. Another crucial problem addressed is accommodating failures in systems with smart components that are physically distributed on highly flexible structures. Parameter adaptive control is a method of promise that provides on-orbit tuning of the control system to improve performance by upgrading the mathematical model of the spacecraft during operation. Two specific questions are answered in this work. They are: What limits does on-line parameter identification with realistic sensors and actuators place on the ultimate achievable performance of a system in the highly flexible environment? Also, how well must the mathematical model used in on-board analytic redundancy be known and what are the reasonable expectations for advanced redundancy management schemes in the highly flexible and distributed component environment?
Automated extraction of knowledge for model-based diagnostics
The concept of accessing computer aided design (CAD) design databases and extracting a process model automatically is investigated as a possible source for the generation of knowledge bases for model-based reasoning systems. The resulting system, referred to as automated knowledge generation (AKG), uses an object-oriented programming structure and constraint techniques as well as internal database of component descriptions to generate a frame-based structure that describes the model. The procedure has been designed to be general enough to be easily coupled to CAD systems that feature a database capable of providing label and connectivity data from the drawn system. The AKG system is capable of defining knowledge bases in formats required by various model-based reasoning tools.
New Modeling Approaches to Investigate Cell Signaling in Radiation Response
Ionizing radiation damages individual cells and tissues leading to harmful biological effects. Among many radiation-induced lesions, DNA double-strand breaks (DSB) are considered the key precursors of most early and late effects [1] leading to direct mutation or aberrant signal transduction processes. In response to damage, a flow of information is communicated to cells not directly hit by the radiation through signal transduction pathways [2]. Non-targeted effects (NTE), which includes bystander effects and genomic instability in the progeny of irradiated cells and tissues, may be particularly important for space radiation risk assessment [1], because astronauts are exposed to a low fluence of heavy ions and only a small fraction of cells are traversed by an ion. NTE may also have important consequences clinical radiotherapy [3]. In the recent years, new simulation tools and modeling approaches have become available to study the tissue response to radiation. The simulation of signal transduction pathways require many elements such as detailed track structure calculations, a tissue or cell culture model, knowledge of biochemical pathways and Brownian Dynamics (BD) propagators of the signaling molecules in their micro-environment. Recently, the Monte-Carlo simulation code of radiation track structure RITRACKS was used for micro and nano-dosimetry calculations [4]. RITRACKS will be used to calculate the fraction of cells traversed by an ion and delta-rays and the energy deposited in cells in a tissue model. RITRACKS also simulates the formation of chemical species by the radiolysis of water [5], notably the .OH radical. This molecule is implicated in DNA damage and in the activation of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF), a signaling molecule involved in NTE. BD algorithms for a particle near a membrane comprising receptors were also developed and will be used to simulate trajectories of signaling molecules in the micro-environment and characterize autocrine and paracrine cell communication and signal transduction.
Case-Based Capture and Reuse of Aerospace Design Rationale
The goal of this project was to apply artificial intelligence techniques to facilitate capture and reuse of aerospace design rationale. The project combined case-based reasoning (CBR) and concept maps (CMaps) to develop methods for capturing, organizing, and interactively accessing records of experiences encapsulating the methods and rationale underlying expert aerospace design, in order to bring the captured knowledge to bear to support future reasoning. The project's results contribute both principles and methods for effective design-aiding systems that aid capture and access of useful design knowledge. The project has been guided by the tenets that design-aiding systems must: (1) Leverage a designer's knowledge, rather than attempting to replace it; (2) Be able to reflect different designers' differing conceptualizations of the design task, and to clarify those conceptualizations to others; (3) Include capabilities to capture information both by interactive knowledge modeling and during normal use; and (4) Integrate into normal designer tasks as naturally and unobtrusive as possible.
Agent Based Modeling of Collaboration and Work Practices Onboard the International Space Station
The International Space Station is one the most complex projects ever, with numerous interdependent constraints affecting productivity and crew safety. This requires planning years before crew expeditions, and the use of sophisticated scheduling tools. Human work practices, however, are difficult to study and represent within traditional planning tools. We present an agent-based model and simulation of the activities and work practices of astronauts onboard the ISS based on an agent-oriented approach. The model represents 'a day in the life' of the ISS crew and is developed in Brahms, an agent-oriented, activity-based language used to model knowledge in situated action and learning in human activities.
Test Platform for Advanced Digital Control of Brushless DC Motors (MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund)
A FY 2001 Center Director's Discretionary Fund task to develop a test platform for the development, implementation. and evaluation of adaptive and other advanced control techniques for brushless DC (BLDC) motor-driven mechanisms is described. Important applications for BLDC motor-driven mechanisms are the translation of specimens in microgravity experiments and electromechanical actuation of nozzle and fuel valves in propulsion systems. Motor-driven aerocontrol surfaces are also being utilized in developmental X vehicles. The experimental test platform employs a linear translation stage that is mounted vertically and driven by a BLDC motor. Control approaches are implemented on a digital signal processor-based controller for real-time, closed-loop control of the stage carriage position. The goal of the effort is to explore the application of advanced control approaches that can enhance the performance of a motor-driven actuator over the performance obtained using linear control approaches with fixed gains. Adaptive controllers utilizing an exact model knowledge controller and a self-tuning controller are implemented and the control system performance is illustrated through the presentation of experimental results.
Monitoring Agents for Assisting NASA Engineers with Shuttle Ground Processing
The Spaceport Processing Systems Branch at NASA Kennedy Space Center has designed, developed, and deployed a rule-based agent to monitor the Space Shuttle's ground processing telemetry stream. The NASA Engineering Shuttle Telemetry Agent increases situational awareness for system and hardware engineers during ground processing of the Shuttle's subsystems. The agent provides autonomous monitoring of the telemetry stream and automatically alerts system engineers when user defined conditions are satisfied. Efficiency and safety are improved through increased automation. Sandia National Labs' Java Expert System Shell is employed as the agent's rule engine. The shell's predicate logic lends itself well to capturing the heuristics and specifying the engineering rules within this domain. The declarative paradigm of the rule-based agent yields a highly modular and scalable design spanning multiple subsystems of the Shuttle. Several hundred monitoring rules have been written thus far with corresponding notifications sent to Shuttle engineers. This chapter discusses the rule-based telemetry agent used for Space Shuttle ground processing. We present the problem domain along with design and development considerations such as information modeling, knowledge capture, and the deployment of the product. We also present ongoing work with other condition monitoring agents.
Intelligent Integrated System Health Management
Intelligent Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) is the management of data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) with the purposeful objective of determining the health of a system (Management: storage, distribution, sharing, maintenance, processing, reasoning, and presentation). Presentation discusses: (1) ISHM Capability Development. (1a) ISHM Knowledge Model. (1b) Standards for ISHM Implementation. (1c) ISHM Domain Models (ISHM-DM's). (1d) Intelligent Sensors and Components. (2) ISHM in Systems Design, Engineering, and Integration. (3) Intelligent Control for ISHM-Enabled Systems
NASA Platform for Autonomous Systems (NPAS)
NASA Platform for Autonomous Systems (NPAS) is a disruptive software platform and processes being developed by SSC Autonomous Systems Laboratory (ASL). Autonomous operations are critical for the success, safety and crew survival of NASA deep space missions beyond low Earth orbit, including Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway, and for the future of cost-effective ground mission operations. NPAS represents the embodiment of an innovative implementation for "thinking" autonomy in contrast to brute-force autonomy. It also uniquely addresses the requirements and integrates five primary functionalities for autonomous operations including: (1) Integrated System Health Management (ISHM), (2) autonomy, guided by health and system concepts of operations; (3) knowledge models of applications; (4) infrastructure to create, schedule, and execute mission plans; and (5) infrastructure to integrate distributed autonomous applications across networks.
NASA Platform for Autonomous Systems (NPAS)
NASA Platform for Autonomous Systems (NPAS) is a disruptive software platform and processes being developed by the NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) Autonomous Systems Laboratory (ASL). Autonomous operations are critical for the success, safety and crew survival of NASA deep space missions beyond low Earth orbit, including the Gateway, and for the future of cost-effective ground mission operations. NPAS represents the embodiment of an innovative paradigm for “thinking” autonomy in contrast to brute-force autonomy. NPAS uniquely addresses the requirements and integrates the primary functionalities for autonomous operations, in one platform that includes: (1) Integrated System Health Management (ISHM); (2) autonomy strategies, guided by system health and concepts of operations; (3) domain objects (system elements) and infrastructure to create complete application domain knowledge models (4) infrastructure to create, schedule, and execute mission plans; (5) infrastructure to develop user interfaces for comprehensive awareness; and (6) infrastructure to integrate distributed autonomous applications across networks. NPAS is a single platform that can be used to make any system operate with any desirable degree of autonomy, as well as provide comprehensive system awareness to operators and users.
Development of a Prototype Model-Form Uncertainty Knowledge Base
Uncertainties are generally classified as either aleatory or epistemic. Aleatory uncertainties are those attributed to random variation, either naturally or through manufacturing processes. Epistemic uncertainties are generally attributed to a lack of knowledge. One type of epistemic uncertainty is called model-form uncertainty. The term model-form means that among the choices to be made during a design process within an analysis, there are different forms of the analysis process, which each give different results for the same configuration at the same flight conditions. Examples of model-form uncertainties include the grid density, grid type, and solver type used within a computational fluid dynamics code, or the choice of the number and type of model elements within a structures analysis. The objectives of this work are to identify and quantify a representative set of model-form uncertainties and to make this information available to designers through an interactive knowledge base (KB). The KB can then be used during probabilistic design sessions, so as to enable the possible reduction of uncertainties in the design process through resource investment. An extensive literature search has been conducted to identify and quantify typical model-form uncertainties present within aerospace design. An initial attempt has been made to assemble the results of this literature search into a searchable KB, usable in real time during probabilistic design sessions. A concept of operations and the basic structure of a model-form uncertainty KB are described. Key operations within the KB are illustrated. Current limitations in the KB, and possible workarounds are explained.
Temporal and contextual knowledge in model-based expert systems
A basic paradigm that allows representation of physical systems with a focus on context and time is presented. Paragon provides the capability to quickly capture an expert's knowledge in a cognitively resonant manner. From that description, Paragon creates a simulation model in LISP, which when executed, verifies that the domain expert did not make any mistakes. The Achille's heel of rule-based systems has been the lack of a systematic methodology for testing, and Paragon's developers are certain that the model-based approach overcomes that problem. The reason this testing is now possible is that software, which is very difficult to test, has in essence been transformed into hardware.