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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

The International Space Station National Lab (ISSNL) was established through Congressional authority in 2005 and has been managed by a nonprofit called the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) since 2011 to support research, development, education, and commercial activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO). NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity and orbital activities in LEO in preparation for the retirement of the International Space Station (ISS) and transition to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) in the 2030 timeframe. Specifically, our study team within the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy addressed the question: What are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms? To inform the trade space of potential models, we conducted over 40 discussions with stakeholders internal and external to NASA and reviewed over 35 documents related to LEO legislation, commercialization, models, and activities. Following the extensive literature review and discussions with diverse stakeholders, we defined and evaluated six models, in addition to the current ISSNL model. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios (dynamic, steady, and limited growth of the commercial LEO market and activities) and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria (ability to meet NASA’s needs, adaptability, opportunity for collaboration, market sustainability, and equity and accessibility). The six models in the future trade space were: • Government Research Broker: Customizable research efforts on transport vehicles and CLDs • Innovation Campus: Modern terrestrial campus with workforce focus • Anchor Tenant: Long-term, substantial agreement for leasing space on a single CLD • Fee for Service: Free market approach with NASA-sponsored grants and service/data buys • Matchmaker: Neutral third-party connecting users to platforms • Institute Network: Network of separate but related efforts to enable commercial scaling The Government Research Broker model performed best across the scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibited positive aspects, the two models performed most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. The six models presented in this study are representative of the potential trade space and are illustrative examples. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align to their priorities more closely by using combinations of the unique model features provided in our analysis. The optimal model is likely a combination of features from multiple models. Building upon this work to best position NASA and the diverse stakeholders of LEO activities for success post-ISS, further work will explore the near-term impact of preparing for the transition of the ISS to CLDs by identifying opportunities for modifying the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the many reviewers and discussants, internal and external to NASA, that contributed to the work.

Erica Rodgers↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells

A breakthrough in low earth orbit (LEO) cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel hydrogen battery cells was reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40,000 LEO cycles compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. The effect of KOH concentration on cycle life was studied. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min charge (2 x normal rate). The depth of discharge (DOD) was 80 percent. The cell temperature was maintained at 23 C. The next step is to validate these results using flight hardware and a real time LEO test. NASA Lewis has a contract with the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC), Crane, Indiana, to validate the boiler plate test results. Six 48 A-hr Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells) and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The cells were cycled for over 8000 cycles in the continuing test. There were no failures for the cells containing 26 percent KOH. There was two failures, however, for the cells containing 31 percent KOH.

Smithrick, John J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells

A breakthrough in the low-earth-orbit (LEO) cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel hydrogen battery cells is reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40,000 LEO cycles compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. The effect of KOH concentration on cycle life was studied. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min charge (2 x normal rate). The depth of discharge (DOD) was 80 percent. The cell temperature was maintained at 23 C. The next step is to validate these results using flight hardware and real time LEO test. NASA Lewis has a contract with the Naval Weapons Support Center (NWSC), Crane, Indiana to validate the boiler plate test results. Six 48 A-hr Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells) and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The cells were cycled for over 8000 cycles in the continuing test. There were no failures for the cells containing 26 percent KOH. There were two failures, however, for the cells containing 31 percent KOH.

Smithrick, John J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Effect of KOH concentration on LEO cycle life of IPV nickel-hydrogen flight cell - Update II

An update of validation test results confirming the breakthrough in LEO cycle life of nickel-hydrogen cells containing 26 percent KOH electrolyte is presented. A breakthrough in the LEO cycle life of individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel-hydrogen cells has been previously reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte was about 40,000 LEO cycles, compared to 3500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. The cycle regime was a stressful accelerated LEO, which consisted of a 27.5 min charge followed by a 17.5 min discharge (2X normal rate). The depth-of-discharge was 80 percent. Six 48-Ah Hughes recirculation design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight battery cells are being evaluated. Three of the cells contain 26 percent KOH (test cells), and three contain 31 percent KOH (control cells). They are undergoing real time LEO cycle life testing. The cycle regime is a 90-min LEO orbit consisting of a 54-min charge followed by a 36-min discharge. The depth-of-discharge is 80 percent. The cell temperature is maintained at 10 C. The three 31 percent KOH cells failed (cycles 3729, 4165, and 11355). One of the 26 percent KOH cells failed at cycle 15314. The other two 26 percent KOH cells were cycled for over 16,000 cycles during the continuing test.

Smithrick, John J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other government-funded users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. This paper describes for consideration six models for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-ISS LEO ecosystem. These six models are illustrative and represent a wide trade space of potential options, each relying on unique mechanisms for facilitating activities on one or more commercial LEO platforms or vehicles. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios varying in number and diversity of LEO activities and commercial offerings, and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria. We present the highlights of the analysis, including ways to modify and strengthen each model. The Government Research Broker model performs best across all future scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibit positive aspects, these models perform most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. While each model has strengths and weaknesses, no single model in its current form performs well across all criteria in all three future scenarios. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align closer to their priorities using combinations of unique model mechanisms. A model that meets leadership priorities is likely a combination of features from multiple models.

Erica Rodgers↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other government-funded users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. This paper describes for consideration six models for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-ISS LEO ecosystem. These six models are illustrative and represent a wide trade space of potential options, each relying on unique mechanisms for facilitating activities on one or more commercial LEO platforms or vehicles. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios varying in number and diversity of LEO activities and commercial offerings, and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria. We present the highlights of the analysis, including ways to modify and strengthen each model. The Government Research Broker model performs best across all future scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibit positive aspects, these models perform most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. While each model has strengths and weaknesses, no single model in its current form performs well across all criteria in all three future scenarios. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align closer to their priorities using combinations of unique model mechanisms. A model that meets leadership priorities is likely a combination of features from multiple models.

Erica Rodgers↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other government-funded users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. This paper describes for consideration six models for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-ISS LEO ecosystem. These six models are illustrative and represent a wide trade space of potential options, each relying on unique mechanisms for facilitating activities on one or more commercial LEO platforms or vehicles. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios varying in number and diversity of LEO activities and commercial offerings, and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria. We present the highlights of the analysis, including ways to modify and strengthen each model. The Government Research Broker model performs best across all future scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibit positive aspects, these models perform most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. While each model has strengths and weaknesses, no single model in its current form performs well across all criteria in all three future scenarios. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align closer to their priorities using combinations of unique model mechanisms. A model that meets leadership priorities is likely a combination of features from multiple models.

Erica Rodgers↗
NASA NTRS2023

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

This study helps elucidate NASA’s future options for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-International Space Station (ISS) low-Earth orbit (LEO) ecosystem. NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. In light of this transition, NASA senior leadership tasked the Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) with answering two questions: 1) what are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms, and 2) in light of these options, what modifications would be helpful to make in the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership and the NASA management processes as NASA plans for the transition of the ISS by 2030? To answer the first question, we conducted a stakeholder-driven analysis to identify a trade space of six differentiated model options. We then evaluated their performance in three potential future scenarios, according to evaluation criteria deemed important to stakeholders. The six models are illustrative and representational of a potential trade space. Additionally, each model requires change to current legislation. To further aid in leadership decision-making, we provided considerations for how to strengthen each model by mixing and matching different model aspects. To answer the second question, we looked to strengths of the top-performing models to evolve the current ISSNL-CASIS relationship and improve NASA’s posture for success post-ISS. We identified four possible modifications to the ISSNL-CASIS partnership and NASA’s management of these activities. By implementing these modifications early, NASA can increase the return from ISSNL-CASIS and help prepare for future models as one or more CLD replaces the ISS by 2030.

ISS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Ground-based simulation of LEO environment: Investigations of a select LDEF material: FEP Teflon (trademark)

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has produced a wealth of data on materials degradation in the low earth orbit (LEO) space environment and has conclusively shown that surface chemistry (as opposed to surface physics-sputtering) is the key to understanding and predicting the degradation of materials in the LEO environment. It is also clear that materials degradation and spacecraft contamination are closely linked and that the fundamental mechanisms responsible for this linking are in general not well understood especially in the area of synergistic effects. The study of the fundamental mechanisms underlying materials degradation in LEO is hampered by the fact that the degradation process itself is not observed during the actual exposure to the environment. Rather the aftermath of the degradation process is studied, i.e., the material that remains after exposure is observed and mechanisms are proposed to explain the observed results. The EOIM-3 flight experiment is an attempt to bring sophisticated diagnostic equipment into the space environment and monitor the degradation process in real time through the use of mass spectrometry. More experiments of this nature which would include surface sensitive diagnostics (Auger and photoelectron spectroscopes) are needed to truly unravel the basic chemical mechanisms involved in the materials degradation process. Since these in-space capabilities will most likely not be available in the near future, ground-based LEO simulation facilities employing sophisticated diagnostics are needed to further advance the basic understanding of the materials degradation mechanisms. The LEO simulation facility developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory has been used to investigate the atomic oxygen/vacuum ultraviolet (AO/VUV) enhanced degradation of FEP Teflon. The results show that photo-ejection of polymer fragments occur at elevated temperature (200 C), that VUV synergistic rare gas sputtering of polymer fragments occur even at 25 C, and that combined OA/VUV interaction produces a wide variety of gas phase reaction products.

Cross, Jon B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design application and development of spacecraft in LEO utilizing LDEF results

In general, the results from the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) have provided much useful information on material sensitivity in the low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment. This is particularly true for selected materials such as thermal control coatings, composites, polymers, fasteners and solar cells. However, LDEF material sensitivity data for other materials like glasses, glass coatings, lubricants, adhesives and seal materials were limited. Some of this important LDEF material sensitivity data has not yet been addressed in detail at the LDEF meetings. The type of material information needed in the design and development of a new spacecraft in LEO depends to a large extent on program phase. In early program phases it is only necessary to have material sensitivity data to determine what materials may or may not work. Later program phases require details on the material strength, optical properties, and/or other long term survivability requirements for materials in LEO. Unfortunately, documentation of exposure results for many materials sensitivity experiments that flew on LDEF has not yet been summarized in a convenient form for use by multiple users. Documentation of this data in a form convenient for scientists, engineers as well as technicians remains a significant area of concern for the aerospace industry. Many of the material experiments that flew on LDEF were only designed to measure material sensitivity for one year in an LEO environment. However, some materials expected to survive one year simply did not survive the 5.8 years that LDEF eventually remained in orbit. Therefore the survivability of several materials in an LEO environment was determined by default. Most of the LDEF materials experiments were not designed to establish long term material survivability data. This long term material survivability data is particularly useful in later program phases of spacecraft development. The lack of more controlled materials experiments to determine long term material survivability was one of the major limitations of many LDEF experiments. The identified need for this critical information on the long term survivability offers a challenge to possible future LDEF type experiments.

Rauch, George B., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2002

System using leo satellites for centimeter-level navigation

Disclosed herein is a system for rapidly resolving position with centimeter-level accuracy for a mobile or stationary receiver [4]. This is achieved by estimating a set of parameters that are related to the integer cycle ambiguities which arise in tracking the carrier phase of satellite downlinks [5,6]. In the preferred embodiment, the technique involves a navigation receiver [4] simultaneously tracking transmissions [6] from Low Earth Orbit Satellites (LEOS) [2] together with transmissions [5] from GPS navigation satellites [1]. The rapid change in the line-of-sight vectors from the receiver [4] to the LEO signal sources [2], due to the orbital motion of the LEOS, enables the resolution with integrity of the integer cycle ambiguities of the GPS signals [5] as well as parameters related to the integer cycle ambiguity on the LEOS signals [6]. These parameters, once identified, enable real-time centimeter-level positioning of the receiver [4]. In order to achieve high-precision position estimates without the use of specialized electronics such as atomic clocks, the technique accounts for instabilities in the crystal oscillators driving the satellite transmitters, as well as those in the reference [3] and user [4] receivers. In addition, the algorithm accommodates as well as to LEOS that receive signals from ground-based transmitters, then re-transmit frequency-converted signals to the ground.

Rabinowitz, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2012

Design and Fabrication of DebriSat - A Representative LEO Satellite for Improvements to Standard Satellite Breakup Models

This paper discusses the design and fabrication of DebriSat, a 50 kg satellite developed to be representative of a modern low Earth orbit satellite in terms of its components, materials used, and fabrication procedures. DebriSat will be the target of a future hypervelocity impact experiment to determine the physical characteristics of debris generated after an on-orbit collision of a modern LEO satellite. The major ground-based satellite impact experiment used by DoD and NASA in their development of satellite breakup models was SOCIT, conducted in 1992. The target used for that experiment was a Navy transit satellite (~40 cm, 35 kg) fabricated in the 1960's. Modern satellites are very different in materials and construction techniques than those built 40 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to conduct a similar experiment using a modern target satellite to improve the fidelity of the satellite breakup models. To ensure that DebriSat is truly representative of typical LEO missions, a comprehensive study of historical LEO satellite designs and missions within the past 15 years for satellites ranging from 1 kg to 5000 kg was conducted. This study identified modern trends in hardware, material, and construction practices utilized in recent LEO missions. Although DebriSat is an engineering model, specific attention is placed on the quality, type, and quantity of the materials used in its fabrication to ensure the integrity of the outcome. With the exception of software, all other aspects of the satellite s design, fabrication, and assembly integration and testing will be as rigorous as that of an actual flight vehicle. For example, to simulate survivability of launch loads, DebriSat will be subjected to a vibration test. As well, the satellite will undergo thermal vacuum tests to verify that the components and overall systems meet typical environmental standards. Proper assembly and integration techniques will involve comprehensive joint analysis, including the precise torqueing of fasteners and thread locking. Finally, the implementation of process documentation and verification procedures is discussed to provide a comprehensive overview of the design and fabrication of this representative LEO satellite.

Clark, S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Update on the Effectiveness of Postmission Disposal in LEO

The commonly‐adopted orbital debris mitigation measures were developed to reduce the growth of the future debris population. A major component in debris mitigation is post-mission disposal (PMD). The key PMD element for LEO satellites is the 25‐year rule. It is intended to limit the long‐term presence of rocket bodies (R/Bs) and spacecraft (S/C), as well as mission-related debris, in the environment. The effectiveness of PMD has been demonstrated and documented since the development of mitigation measures began in the 1990s. This paper summarizes an updated study, based on the current environment, using the NASA LEGEND model. The study focused on the > or = 10 cm population in LEO. The historical simulation covered 1957 through 2011 and followed the recorded launches and known breakup events. The future projection was carried out for 200 years. An eight‐year launch traffic, 2004 - 2011, was repeated during the projection period. An eight‐year mission lifetime was assumed for future S/C. No stationkeeping and no collision avoidance maneuver were implemented. Only objects 10 cm and larger were included in collision consideration. No explosion was allowed for R/Bs and S/C launched after 2011. The 25‐year PMD rule success rates were set at 0%, 10%, 50%, 75%, and 95%, respectively, for the 5 study scenarios. Results of the simulations were analyzed to quantify the differences among the different compliance rates. As expected, the 0% PMD projection followed a rapid and non‐linear increase in the next 200 years. The LEO population, on average, more than tripled at the end of the simulations. With a 50% compliance of the 25‐year rule, the population growth was reduced approximately by half. However, even with a 95% compliance of the 25‐year rule, the LEO debris population would still increase by an average of more than 50% in 200 years. These simulation results provide an updated assessment of the effectiveness of the 25‐year rule. It is the first and the most cost‐effective defense against future population growth. In addition, the results also confirm the instability of the LEO population and lay the foundation for the need to consider environment remediation in the future.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Review of Options for a National Lab for Microgravity/Orbital Activities in LEO

NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) performs data-driven assessments to inform the Agency’s development of policy and strategy. OTPS works across NASA, the US government, industry, and academia to incorporate relevant stakeholder input to data-driven assessments regarding the future of NASA. OTPS conducted a study with the goal of identifying potential models to ensure that NASA and its government-sponsored user communities can successfully complete activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO) in a post-International Space Station (ISS) (i.e. 2030s) timeframe. Given the expectation that one or more Commercial LEO Destinations will replace the ISS by 2030, NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity research and other activities in LEO. This task is particularly challenging due to the uncertain future of the LEO ecosystem. Future scenarios may range from a robust environment with multiple platform options and new activities to an austere environment with few platform options and deflated momentum among user communities. Both extreme futures, along with any number of scenarios in between, have serious implications for the future of LEO and NASA’s role in it. It is therefore imperative that NASA consider its prioritized activities for the 2030 timeframe and identify potential business and operating models that will provide continuity for government-sponsored activities. The results of this NASA OTPS study will be presented, along with a discussion of how specific engagement models could enable NASA and other entities to achieve their goals in the 2030 timeframe.

Erica Marie Rodgers Heusinkveld↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Joint Assimilation of Surface, GEO, and LEO CO, NO2, and O3 In Situ and Partial Column/Profile Retrievals with WRF-Chem/DART

Low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites like OMI or TROPOMI and geostationary satellites like TEMPO (to be launched January 2023) provide ozone (O3) retrieval profiles that extend into the stratosphere. Regional models like WRF-Chem generally do not include the stratosphere and have vertical grids that end near the tropopause. This causes difficulties when assimilating O3 retrievals (both column and profile retrievals) because the respective observation forward operators require model O3 profiles that extend into the stratosphere. In this presentation, we look at results from assimilating O3 observation from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (profile retrievals), and GEO (proxy profile retrievals) platforms in as regional model where we use a global chemical transport model (GCTM) to provide O3 upper boundary conditions (BCs) to enable application of the O3 observation forward operators. We will also present results from assimilating O3 retrievals together with carbon monoxide (CO) observations from surface (in situ measurements) and multiple LEO platforms (column and profile retrievals), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (column retrievals), and GEO (proxy column retrievals) platforms. Our joint assimilation experiments show that sometimes the observations complement each, e.g., when assimilating surface and satellite CO or NO2 observations, and sometimes the observations conflict with each other, e.g., when assimilating observations that are biased with respect to other observations (e.g., CO retrievals), or when the assimilation increments conflict due to their chemical interaction (e.g., surface O3 and NO2 retrievals). Results from assimilation of O3 retrieval profiles in regional model are preliminary and will also be discussed in our presentation. Our expectation is that using GCTM O3 as upper BCs in the regional model for evaluation of the O3 forward operator will improve our O3 forecasts. In summary, we will present results from jointly assimilating surface, LEO, and GEO CO, NO2, and O3 in situ and satellite observations in a regional model with dynamic emissions estimation. This study uses proxy GEO observations as a prelude to actual observations because the GEO platform will not be launched until after our presentation.

WRF-Chem/DART↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Lightning Instruments for Weather and Climate Monitoring From LEO

Lightning is not only a natural hazard, but it also holds information about physical processes at work in deep convection and influences atmospheric oxidants that modulate ozone and methane. Hence, spaceborne lightning observations are essential for monitoring extreme events and feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. Low-Earth orbiting (LEO) lightning mapping instruments established a 25-year record of global lightning activity and resulted in a wealth of studies that motivated its designation as an Essential Climate Variable by the World Meteorological Organization. Although geostationary observations of lightning have become increasingly available since 2017, LEO lightning mappers continue to serve critical needs given their unique vantage point and acceptance as a unifying reference for geostationary lightning mapper and ground-based global lightning datasets. At the close of 2023, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) will cease operations on the International Space Station, which introduces a critical gap in LEO-based monitoring of global lightning activity. To address this need, NASA is developing new lightning mapping technology that enables future LEO-based satellite missions. Existing LEO-based lightning mappers rely on narrowband optical emissions centered on 777.4-nm and detectors that capture 500 images per second to detect lightning both day and night. Lightning can also produce optical emissions in a narrowband centered on 337-nm without any corresponding emissions at the traditionally used near-infrared (NIR) wavelength. These near-ultraviolet (UV) emissions are associated with earlier stage electrical breakdown (e.g., streamers), may frequent intense regions of deep convective storms, and may be a significant source of nitrogen oxide production in the upper atmosphere. A new lightning mapping instrument called the CubeSat Lightning Imaging and Detection Experiment (CLIDE) is being designed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to use high-speed, scientific CMOS image sensors capable of detecting lightning’s transient optical emissions in the near-UV and NIR during both daylit and nighttime scenes. This will extend the record of global lightning activity and help pave the way for future small satellite missions that combine radio and optical lightning detectors to obtain novel three-dimensional maps of lightning on a global scale, which can revolutionize the way lightning is used to monitor weather and understand changes in climate.

lightning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations and Simulations of Dropout Events and Flux Decays in October 2013: Comparing MEO Equatorial With LEO Polar Orbit

We compare ESA PROBA-V observations of electron flux at LEO with those from the NASA Van Allen Probes mostly at MEO for October 2013. Dropouts are visible at all energy during four storms from both satellites. Equatorially trapped electron fluxes are higher than at LEO by 10 2 (<1 MeV) to 10 5 (>2.5 MeV). We observe a quite isotropic structure of the outer belt during quiet times, contrary to the inner belt, and pitch angle dependence of high energy injection. We find a very good overlap of the outer belt at MEO and LEO at ~0.5 MeV. We use test-particle simulations of the energetic electrons trapped in the terrestrial magnetic field to study the outer radiation belt electron flux changes during geomagnetic storms. We show that the Dst (Disturbance storm time) effect during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm results in a betatron mechanism causing outward radial drift and a deceleration of the electrons. This outward drift motion is energy independent, pitch angle-dependent, and represents a significant distance (~1 L-shell at L = 5 for moderate storms). At fixed L-shell, this causes a decay of the LEO precipitating flux (adiabatic outward motion), followed by a return to the normal state (adiabatic inward motion) during main and recovery phases. Dst effect, associated with magnetopause shadowing and radial diffusion can explain the main characteristics of outer radiation belt electron dropouts in October 2013. We also use Fokker-Planck simulations with event-driven diffusion coefficients at high temporal resolution, to distinguish instantaneous loss from the gradual scattering that depopulates the slot region and the outer belt after storms. Simulations reproduce the slot formation and the gradual loss in the outer belt. The typical energy dependence of these losses leads to the absence of scattering for relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons in the outer belt, oppositely to dropouts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗