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MH-1A Sturgis Decommissioning and Dismantlement - 20281

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) with its prime contractor, Aptim Federal Services, LLC (APTIM), recycled 5,260 metric tons (11.6 million pounds) of material from Sturgis Barge (Sturgis) during the Decommissioning and Dismantlement of the MH-1A nuclear power reactor. The overall objective of the project was to reduce residual radioactivity associated with MH-1A to levels that permitted release of Sturgis for dismantlement and termination of the Army Reactor Office permit. By effectively applying waste hierarchy's three Rs - reduce, reuse and recycle - the Sturgis project not only minimized the amount of waste that required disposal at landfills, but also reduced the potential for long-term environmental liability emanating from these landfills. The project team completed the physical decommissioning efforts in June 2018 in Galveston, TX. In September 2018, radiological surveys were completed to demonstrate the vessel could be released for shipbreaking. Sturgis was towed from Galveston, TX to Brownsville, TX in late September 2018. Shipbreaking, dismantlement and recycling efforts began in early October 2018 and were completed on 15 March 2019. As part of the decommissioning effort in Galveston, the team shipped 69 shipments (860 metric tons) of low-level radioactive waste and radioactive components to the Waste Control Specialist (WCS) facility in Andrews TX for disposal. Certain radioactive components had to be transferred to the Department of Energy prior to placing the materials into the Federal Waste Facility located within WCS. However, most of the radioactive waste was characterized, profiled, approved and managed under the WCS permitted radioactive waste exemption process authorized and implemented by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the Radioactive Materials Division. This allows LLRW and LLMW to be shipped as regulated waste and then upon receipt at WCS through satisfying the relevant waste acceptance criteria the waste is exempted and placed into the WCS RCRA permitted cell. An additional 35 shipments (544 metric ton) of contaminated hazardous waste water were transported to U.S. Ecology in Robstown, TX for treatment/disposal. An additional 36 shipments (500 metric tons) of non-hazardous wastewater was sent to Republic Waste Services' facility in Fresno, TX. The disposal of these materials required close coordination with State of Texas regulators. During decommissioning, the project team recycled approximately 270 metric tons (600,000 pounds) of lead and steel. As part of the dismantlement in Brownsville, TX the team recycled approximately 5,000 metric tons (11 million pounds) of ferrous and non-ferrous material, limiting our disposal requirements to about 180 metric tons (400,000 pounds) of material (<4% from entire shipbreaking activity). Although the primary hazard being mitigated by this project was radiological, recycling was always a priority for the project. The team strived to achieve sustainability goals as we implemented this one of a kind project. Scrap metal recycling has a large positive impact on the environment and can also favorably impact project disposal costs. Steel is among the most recycled material in the world. Nearly 40% of the world's steel production is made from scrap. Recycling steel also requires 75% less energy than producing it from raw materials. By using recycled steel rather than virgin materials, 2.33 kg of carbon emissions are eliminated per kg of steel [1]. The project recycled more than 4,500 metric tons (10 million pounds) of steel, which eliminated about 10,400 metric tons (23 million pounds) of CO{sub 2}. By implementing a recycling initiative for the Sturgis project, the team was able to realize cost avoidance for disposal of scrap, cost savings from the metals recycled, plus the project provided benefits to the environment through our recycling efforts. Once the dismantlement was complete, the team prepared a detailed decommissioning closure report, which allowed for the termination of the Army Reactor Decommissioning Permit. While it not only reduced any potential long-term environmental liability, this project to decommission and dismantle a floating nuclear power plant is truly unprecedented - it is a prime example of the USACE mission which is: 'Engineering solutions for the Nation's toughest challenges'. This unique, one of a kind, historical power plant was never designed to be taken apart, and the available information about its construction was lacking in many details. The hazards that required mitigation dictated a painstaking and deliberate process in order to avoid any release to the environment and the community, and to protect the health and safety of the workers involved while keeping the waste hierarchy's three R's - reduce, reuse and recycle at the forefront. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Overview of the Long-Term Stewardship of the Remediated Uranium Mining and Milling Sites in Europe - 20079

Uranium mining in Europe began in the ' 40's for civil and military applications. The great majority of the uranium mines have now been closed and are going through the stages of decommissioning and/or rehabilitation. Today, the main uranium producers are outside the EU; only a few mines are still in operation inside the EU. In 2006, the situation of the uranium mines and mill tailings in Europe, identifying the tailings liabilities, their status, the plans for these sites and any associated hazards, was reported to the EC. The legacy of uranium mines and mill tailing disposals in the EU are located mainly in 12 Member States where, in total, 87 tailing objects were identified at 63 sites. The volume of each one of these tailings disposal varies from a few thousand to several tens of million m{sup 3}. The majority of these sites are no longer in operation. More than 40 tailing embankments have already been completely remediated. Approximately 20 are currently being remediated while for the remaining objects, remediation has yet to start. After ten years, and for a few cases where the respective projects have not yet been completed, it seems that most of Europe's uranium mines and milling legacies were remediated according to acceptable environmental standards. Nevertheless, Europe is about to face a new challenge that comes from the concluded remediation projects for which an effective set of measures for coordinated institutional control, known as 'long-term stewardship', is needed including, in most cases, continuous and active maintenance. Moreover, the uncertainty of what will happen to these sites if institutional control fails at some point in time is a major concern. This work presents a summary of the situation and current issues of the uranium mine and mill tailings in Europe and their remediation status. It addresses not only the management of existing uranium mine and mill legacies but also the methods and strategies that have been used to prevent the creation of new future legacy sites from uranium mines still in operation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Excavation Volume Growth Factors at Environmental Remediation Sites - 20318

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) manages numerous environmental remediation projects in accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, otherwise known as CERCLA. These include projects for the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Utilizing the CERCLA framework to address these projects requires detailed cost estimates and a significant portion of costs are associated with the volume of material to be excavated and that material's final disposition. Accordingly, understanding the expected volumes and uncertainty associated with those volumes is vital to project cost estimating. These estimates are completed at various stages of the CERCLA process, thus the project team has varying degrees of information available from which to develop these estimates depending on how far along the project is. Understanding the factors contributing to volume growth (increase in volume of material from that originally estimated) is a crucial element to determining volume and cost uncertainty. This paper presents a case study of a FUSRAP site which involves excavation and offsite disposal of contaminated soils from complex commercial, industrial, and residential properties. Original volume estimates were compared to post excavation volumes on a property by property basis. Reasons for differences are determined along with magnitude of impacts to cost estimating. For both residential and commercial property types, volume estimating factors, uncertainty considerations, and methods to account for each are discussed with emphasis on volume growth considerations. Cost estimating model input considerations are discussed with specific emphasis on accounting for volume uncertainty at the Feasibility Study (FS) phase of CERCLA. Underestimating or overestimating costs at the FS phase has repercussions under CERCLA that may impact project close out or completion schedule. Discussions presented will be helpful to both reviewers and preparers of cost estimates involving excavations. Additionally, project planners may be able to use the information to plan for volume growth contingencies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Competing Interests and Creating Value - Balancing Durable and Enforceable Institutional Controls with Beneficial Reuse - 20320

US DOE LM has various real property interests at the 100 sites within its current portfolio, with an anticipated total of 127 sites within the next 5 years. Each site has its own narrative with respect to the real property assets. Since the regulatory time frame for long-term surveillance and maintenance activities at some sites can be in perpetuity, durable and effective instruments and documentation are necessary to support LM's unique mission as a federal land manager and steward. More than half of the sites currently in LM's inventory do not allow unrestricted use, and institutional controls (ICs) are required to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination. LM's Asset Management program balances protection of human health and the environment with a goal of optimizing its land portfolio through mitigation of risk, limiting liability, and creating value, whether tangible or intangible, in these types of assets. The IC layering strategy utilizes multiple types, restrictions, and legal authorities to protect human health and the environment. This layering strategy influences the transition of these properties into LM's portfolio to assess potential beneficial reuses. The LM's beneficial reuse program aims to repurpose former contaminated sites to restore the environment, protect the public health, revitalize communities, and spur economic growth. LM strives to create value in a perceived valueless asset and reevaluates and revisits the potential opportunities for these sites as long-term surveillance and maintenance activities are performed and objectives are achieved. Beneficial reuse also promotes protectiveness by ensuring activities are compatible with long-term maintenance and protection of public health and the environment as well as ensuring activities are environmentally sound by retaining good stewardship of natural resources. LM has recently revised both the Institutional Control Program Guidance and its Beneficial Reuse Management Plan to integrate the issues of land use with ICs, creating value in these impaired assets. This paper presents the following topics: (1) a general overview of LM's IC and beneficial reuse programs; (2) the unique aspects of each of these programs as a result of the multiple regulatory requirements and programs that affect LM sites; (3) case studies of LM sites to show examples of how LM created value while complying with the ICs and layering strategies; and (4) the most common challenges to beneficial reuses at LM sites and potential options for value creation in impaired assets. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Understanding Heterogeneities in Quantum Materials

Quantum materials are usually heterogeneous, with structural defects, impurities, surfaces, edges, interfaces, and disorder. These heterogeneities are sometimes viewed as liabilities within conventional systems; however, their electronic and magnetic structures often define and affect the quantum phenomena such as coherence, interaction, entanglement, and topological effects in the host system. Therefore, a critical need is to understand the roles of heterogeneities in order to endow materials with new quantum functions for energy and quantum information science applications. In this article, several representative examples are reviewed on the recent progress in connecting the heterogeneities to the quantum behaviors of real materials. Specifically, three intertwined topic areas are assessed: i) Reveal the structural, electronic, magnetic, vibrational, and optical degrees of freedom of heterogeneities. ii) Understand the effect of heterogeneities on the behaviors of quantum states in host material systems. iii) Control heterogeneities for new quantum functions. This progress is achieved by establishing the atomistic-level structure-property relationships associated with heterogeneities in quantum materials. Finally, the understanding of the interactions between electronic, magnetic, photonic, and vibrational states of heterogeneities enables the design of new quantum materials, including topological matter and quantum light emitters based on heterogenous 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Emerging Tools to Support DILI Assessment in Clinical Trials with Abnormal Baseline Serum Liver Tests or Pre-existing Liver Diseases

Abstract Based on the late Dr. Hyman Zimmerman’s observation that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) leading to jaundice carries a ≥ 10% fatality risk (coined as Hy’s law by others), evaluation of Drug-Induced Serious Hepatotoxicity (eDISH) continues to play a central role in the assessment of a study drug’s liability for acute hepatocellular DILI. The eDISH identifies drugs in clinical trials with DILI fatality (death or transplant) risk that may be unacceptable in a post-market setting. As a two-dimensional graph that plots peak total bilirubin (TB) versus peak serum aminotransferase levels for each patient during study drug or comparator treatment, eDISH identifies potential cases of acute, modest, and serious hepatocellular DILI for in-depth analysis of liver tests (LT) and clinical course so that the likelihood of causal association with the study drug can be determined. Unfortunately, the generalizable utility of this tool only pertains to trials enrolling patients with normal or near normal (NNN) baseline (BL) serum LTs. The eDISH does not necessarily apply to trials of patients with abnormal baseline (ABN-BL) LTs that often coincide with underlying liver disorders. Because drug development programs being reviewed by the FDA increasingly target liver disorders, we are often challenged to evaluate DILI risk in trials of patients with ABN-BL LTs. Also, the high background prevalence of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) means patients with LTs above NNN may need to be enrolled in trials treating non-liver disorders to reflect the target population. Such study populations create challenges for industry and regulators because eDISH may not reliably categorize or identify potential cases of DILI for further analysis, as it so efficiently does in NNN-BL trials. We describe the main functionalities of eDISH in NNN-BL trials to understand what should be emulated by new tools or eDISH modifications. We then discuss non-eDISH–based plots that may be useful in ABN-BL trials.

Amirzadegan, Jasmine↗

Exploring the effects of policy on stakeholder adoption and deployment of agrivoltaics: A case study of Massachusetts

Further deployment of agrivoltaics is likely to require a better understanding of how policies and agreements can shape the outcomes of solar siting on farmland. This study evaluates the Massachusetts agrivoltaics policy in terms of its implications on deployment and stakeholder experiences in adoption. We present findings from interviews with 26 state policymakers, Extension agents, representatives of non-governmental organizations, farm owners and operators, and solar developers. Our findings demonstrate how the policy has mixed effects on deployment processes and outcomes—in some instances, the policy enables deployment by formalizing cross-sector collaboration, increasing farm owner and operator participation in development, and facilitating novel business models. In other instances, the policy constrains deployment by prescribing operational requirements, creating liability risk, and developing dependency on empirical data to inform eligibility decisions. Interviewees explained how these mixed policy effects create both benefits and burdens for adopters, particularly farm owners and operators. These insights indicate the value of cross-sector collaboration during all phases of agrivoltaic policy implementation and project development; the importance of coordination across policy, research, and commercial activities; and the significant role of regulators and policy design in deployment. The evidence presented in this paper can inform decision making for emerging agrivoltaic policies and markets, both in the United States and internationally.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Sensitivity of geophysical techniques for monitoring secondary CO 2 storage plumes

For geologic carbon storage, the ability to detect secondary CO 2 plumes—defined as those CO 2 plumes accumulating outside the intended storage reservoir—is fundamental to preventing unexpected CO 2 migration into groundwater resources and for risk and liability management. Understanding the sensitivity of various geophysical methods to secondary plumes is crucial for designing cost-effective monitoring schemes. We use several modeling scenarios to demonstrate the process of assessing sensitivities and detection thresholds of three primary geophysical techniques—surface seismic, borehole-to-surface electromagnetic (EM), and surface and borehole gravity—for early detection of secondary CO 2 plumes in the post-injection phase. While seismic reflection methods are often considered in monitoring strategies to track the evolution of CO 2 plumes, they are also the most expensive. Due to cost considerations, especially for long-term post-injection monitoring, other techniques complement seismic monitoring when designing an adaptive monitoring network. Borehole-to-surface EM or surface gravity surveys are feasible for time-lapse monitoring of deep secondary CO 2 plumes. Furthermore, these surveys could be carried at intervals defined by site-specific conditions. If time-lapse EM and/or gravity surveys detect any signal responses beyond the expected change, it would trigger a need for the higher resolution seismic survey.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tandem pyrolysis evolved gas–gas chromatography–mass spectrometry

Analysis of byproducts from thermal degradation of polymer materials provides a wealth of information about a materials’ composition, thermal stability, degradation mechanisms, and kinetics. However, regardless of the instrumentation used, only limited information is obtainable from a single experiment. Microfurnace technology, when interfaced to a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), can be used to obtain both thermal and chemical information via evolved gas analysis-MS (EGA-MS) and GC-MS analysis modes. While both EGA-MS and Py-GC-MS are valuable when characterizing polymer materials, at least two experiments on distinct samples are required, which can be a liability for clear interpretation of results from inhomogeneous samples. Here, we seek to overcome this limitation by combining EGA-MS and Py-GC-MS modes in a single experimental setup. Further, this was done by developing new gas line modifications to allow for tandem Pyrolysis Evolved Gas-Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (Py/EG-GC-MS) analysis. Verification of Py/EG-GC-MS analysis was performed using a polystyrene standard. Results demonstrate successful Py/EG-GC-MS analysis for the first-time showing the potential of these modifications for application in areas where sample is limited or direct correlation of products to the thermal profile is desirable such as in forensics or product-specific kinetics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ecological connectivity and in-kind mitigation in a regulatory decision framework: A case study with an amphibian habitat specialist

Ecological connectivity is critical to the survival and long-term viability of populations but is often overlooked in regulatory frameworks. We integrated landscape-level processes into a mitigation strategy for impacts to aquatic resources on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Wetlands on the ORR, which contain significant breeding populations of the imperiled four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) and tubercled rein orchid (Platanthera flava var. herbiola), will be impacted by construction of an environmental waste disposal facility under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Here, we used a modified Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis to select general mitigation options that balanced regulatory requirements and interest group perspectives. We emphasized habitat connectivity through models that prioritized an area's importance to natural area connectivity (centrality) and maintenance of population structure for an affected habitat specialist (four-toed salamanders). We also emphasized in-kind mitigation through the preservation and enhancement of ecologically similar resources and the translocation and establishment of a new subpopulation of four-toed salamanders elsewhere on the ORR. We ultimately released over 500 juvenile salamanders that originated from the impacted site into the chosen mitigation wetlands. By doing so under the constraints of a time-sensitive CERCLA remediation effort and exceeding its substantive requirements, this work underscores feasibility. Ecological connectivity and the conservation of species that are not afforded explicit regulatory processes can be effectively and efficiently integrated into environmental decision-making and land use planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unusual photophysical properties of a new tricyclic derivative of thiopurines in terms of potential applications

The thio analogues of purine bases have been found to possess notable biological and pharmacological capabilities and have an important role to play as anticancer and immunosuppressive drugs. In this work a new tricyclic analogue of guanosine containing sulfur was synthesized, in particular, DTEG (2',3',5'-tri-O-acetyl-6,9-dithioethanoguanosine). Although there is promise for thiopurine derivatives for biomedical applications, there are some liabilities in regard to their exposure to light. As a preliminary survey for such difficulties with DTEG, this work looks into spectral and photophysical processes of DTEG using time-resolved and steady-state optical excitation. In contrast to other thiopurines, which have long-lived triplets, DTEG is shown to have a short-lived triplet making it less dangerous for singlet-oxygen sensitization. Even in anaerobic solutions, its photoreactivity is negligible. These various unusual photochemical properties of DTEG are consistent with DTEG being very promising as an alternative drug to the currently used 6-thiopurines. DTEG also has some interesting photophysical behavior that is distinct from other thioketones. Although thioketones have an unusual fluorescence violating Kasha’s Rule and emitting from the second excited singlet state, DTEG does this also, but, in addition, it shows dual fluorescence by emitting from its first excited singlet as well. The assignments of the nature of these excited states are supported by DFT results. This theory and associated kinetic analysis show quantitatively that the dual fluorescence is, in part, tied to the relatively fast S 2 to S 1 internal conversion compared to other S 2 decays and, in part, tied to the relatively slow nonradiative decay of S 1 itself.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗

Disposition of Solids from Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Biomass: Current Understanding, Research Gaps, and Opportunities

Characteristics of solid residuals generated during hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of biomass are reported to establish disposition options for these residuals to reduce liability or barriers to commercialization of HTL. HTL solids from pilot scale are reported and compared to existing HTL solids literature for a variety of biomass feedstocks and HTL configurations, noting differences among literature HTL solids due to solids collection methods. Reported analyses include CHNOS, moisture, ash, inorganics by Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP), and High Heating Value (HHV). HTL solids are determined to be substantially compatible with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) disposal regulations within existing data. Disposition and valorization routes are identified, yet combustion as valorization is determined to be not economically beneficial. Further, research gaps are identified, which include the need for future research to be performed on HTL solids that are representative of a continuous, commercializable flowsheet; verification that specific HTL solids meet EPA disposal requirements; exploration of valorization options; and the need for invention of continuous HTL solids separations/management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Feasibility of Algal Biochar, a Byproduct of Biofuel Production, as a Supplemental Cementitious Material

Algal biochar, as the solid residue of biofuel production from algal biomass, is reported to explore disposition options, aiming to lessen the liability or obstacles to biofuel production processes. However, landfills and open combustion lead to adverse environmental impacts. One way to add value to such wastes is to use them as admixtures in cementitious construction materials. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of algae-derived biochar as supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) at different water contents and mixture ratios. Algal biochar-cement composites were prepared with different algal biochar content as well as different water-to-cement (w/c) ratios, and the surface area, morphology, elemental, and mineralogical composition were characterized. To compensate for the high-water absorption of algal biochar, a small concentration of a superplasticizer was used since higher w/c ratios negatively impact strength. The mechanical performance of algal biochar-cement composites is compared with control composites using commercial silica fume as a typical commercial SCM. The findings suggest that algal biochar is a promising candidate to replace commercial SCM, like silica fume, since algal biochar-cement composites can reach comparable compressive strength and Young’s modulus to commercial pozzolan-cement materials with the same w/c ratio, though at later curing times, 33 days. Although the tensile strength of algal biochar-cement composites is statistically similar at 7 days, it is significantly lower at later curing times, and further investigation is required to improve this property. Algal biochar-based cement binders showed comparable embodied carbon to silica fume-based cement binders based on a cradle-to-gate lifecycle analysis. However, the ability of algal biochar to absorb large volumes of CO 2 over short periods of time, as measured in this study, makes this novel SCM an excellent alternative to reduce the embodied carbon of concrete structures cradle-to-grave at 1/10 of the cost. In conclusion, valorization of algae-derived solid waste provides great potential to reduce embodied carbon and brings credit to biofuel production and concrete-based construction.

algae-derived↗

Fracture Caging to Limit Induced Seismicity

Geothermal resources offer a stable low-carbon energy source. However, geothermal sites can collocate with the hypocenters of large-magnitude seismic events. Large seismic events pose a risk to public safety and are therefore a liability for efforts to develop geothermal resources. In this work, we propose “fracture caging” to limit induced seismic event magnitudes and present evidence from numerical model predictions, laboratory experiments, and field observations. Fracture caging involves drilling tactical production wells around a geothermal injection zone to contain fluids in fracture-dominated flow systems. Prior to our work, the effect of small wells on the growth of large fractures and on flow through fractures was subject to debate. Our work shows that production wells can impede fracture growth and contain high-pressure fluids in fracture-dominated rocks. This containment offers a mechanism to limit induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular mechanism of biased signaling at the kappa opioid receptor

The κ-opioid receptor (KOR) has emerged as an attractive drug target for pain management without addiction, and biased signaling through particular pathways of KOR may be key to maintaining this benefit while minimizing side-effect liabilities. As for most G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), however, the molecular mechanisms of ligand-specific signaling at KOR have remained unclear. To better understand the molecular determinants of KOR signaling bias, we apply structure determination, atomic-level molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and functional assays. We determine a crystal structure of KOR bound to the G protein-biased agonist nalfurafine, the first approved KOR-targeting drug. We also identify an arrestin-biased KOR agonist, WMS-X600. Using MD simulations of KOR bound to nalfurafine, WMS-X600, and a balanced agonist U50,488, we identify three active-state receptor conformations, including one that appears to favor arrestin signaling over G protein signaling and another that appears to favor G protein signaling over arrestin signaling. These results, combined with mutagenesis validation, provide a molecular explanation of how agonists achieve biased signaling at KOR.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Computationally restoring the potency of a clinical antibody against Omicron

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the promise of monoclonal antibody-based prophylactic and therapeutic drugs and revealed how quickly viral escape can curtail effective options. When the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emerged in 2021, many antibody drug products lost potency, including Evusheld and its constituent, cilgavimab. Cilgavimab, like its progenitor COV2-2130, is a class 3 antibody that is compatible with other antibodies in combination4 and is challenging to replace with existing approaches. Rapidly modifying such high-value antibodies to restore efficacy against emerging variants is a compelling mitigation strategy. We sought to redesign and renew the efficacy of COV2-2130 against Omicron BA.1 and BA.1.1 strains while maintaining efficacy against the dominant Delta variant. Here we show that our computationally redesigned antibody, 2130-1-0114-112, achieves this objective, simultaneously increases neutralization potency against Delta and subsequent variants of concern, and provides protection in vivo against the strains tested: WA1/2020, BA.1.1 and BA.5. Deep mutational scanning of tens of thousands of pseudovirus variants reveals that 2130-1-0114-112 improves broad potency without increasing escape liabilities. Our results suggest that computational approaches can optimize an antibody to target multiple escape variants, while simultaneously enriching potency. Our computational approach does not require experimental iterations or pre-existing binding data, thus enabling rapid response strategies to address escape variants or lessen escape vulnerabilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗