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Impact of LISA's Low Frequency Sensitivity on Observations of Massive Black Hole Mergers

LISA will be able to detect gravitational waves from inspiralling massive black hole (MBH) binaries out to redshifts z > 10. If the binary masses and luminosity distances can be extracted from the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data stream, this information can be used to reveal the merger history of MBH binaries and their host galaxies in the evolving universe. Since this parameter extraction generally requires that LISA observe the inspiral for a significant fraction of its yearly orbit, carrying out this program requires adequate sensitivity at low frequencies, f < 10(exp -4) Hz. Using several candidate low frequency sensitivities, we examine LISA's potential for characterizing MBH binary coalescences at redshifts z > 1.

Baker, J.

Investigations into Gravitational Wave Emission from Compact Body Inspiral into Massive Black Holes

In contrast to year 1 (when much of the activity associated with this grant focused upon developing our group at MIT), year 2 was a period of very focused attention on research problems. We made significant progress developing relativistic waveforms for the extreme mass ratio inspiral problem; we have pushed forward a formalism our group developed for mapping the spacetimes of massive compact objects; and, in collaboration with the Caltech group, we began to develop a framework for addressing issues in LISA data analysis for extreme mass ratio systems.

Hughes, Scott A.

The LISA Science Ground Segment

The mHz band of the gravitational wave (GW) spectrum contains an unprecedented abundance of galactic, extra-galactic, and cosmological sources. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will survey the mHz GW band and provide unique observational constraints on the formation and evolution of compact binaries in the Milky Way, the origin and growth of massive black holes throughout cosmic history, the dynamics of dense stellar environments in galactic nuclei, the fundamental nature of gravity and black holes, and more. The richness of the LISA data comes at the price of a more complicated analysis framework than is required for currently operating GW observatories.

Tyson B. Littenberg

Mind the Gap: Addressing Data Gaps and Assessing Noise Mismodeling in LISA

Due to the sheer complexity of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) space mission, data gaps arising from instrumental irregularities and/or scheduled maintenance are unavoidable. Focusing on merger-dominated massive black hole binary signals, we test the appropriateness of the Whittle-likelihood on gapped data in a variety of cases. From first principles, we derive the likelihood valid for gapped data in both the time and frequency domains. Cheap-to-evaluate proxies to p-p plots are derived based on a Fisher-based formalism, and verified through Bayesian techniques. Our tools allow to predict the altered variance in the parameter estimates that arises from noise mismodeling, as well as the information loss represented by the broadening of the posteriors. The result of noise mismodeling with gaps is sensitive to the characteristics of the noise model, with strong low-frequency (red) noise and strong high-frequency (blue) noise giving statistically significant fluctuations in recovered parameters. We demonstrate that the introduction of a tapering window reduces statistical inconsistency errors, at the cost of less precise parameter estimates. We also show that the assumption of independence between inter-gap segments appears to be a fair approximation even if the data set is inherently coherent. However, if one instead assumes fictitious correlations in the data stream, when the data segments are actually independent, then the resultant parameter recoveries could be inconsistent with the true parameters. The theoretical and numerical practices that are presented in this work could readily be incorporated into global-fit pipelines operating on gapped data.

LISA

Data Analysis for the LISA Pathfinder Mission

The LTP (LISA Technology Package) is the core part of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Pathfinder mission. The main goal of the mission is to study the sources of any disturbances that perturb the motion of the freely-falling test masses from their geodesic trajectories as well as 10 test various technologies needed for LISA. The LTP experiment is designed as a sequence of experimental runs in which the performance of the instrument is studied and characterized under different operating conditions. In order to best optimize subsequent experimental runs, each run must be promptly analysed to ensure that the following ones make best use of the available knowledge of the instrument ' In order to do this, all analyses must be designed and tested in advance of the mission and have sufficient built-in flexibility to account for unexpected results or behaviour. To support this activity, a robust and flexible data analysis software package is also required. This poster presents two of the main components that make up the data analysis effort: the data analysis software and the mock-data challenges used to validate analysis procedures and experiment designs.

Thorpe, James Ira

Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation

Intense structure formation and reionization occur at high redshift, yet there is currently little observational information about this very important epoch. Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the formation of structures in the early universe. Past efforts have been limited to calculating merger rates using different models in which many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a very wide range (0.1 - 104 mergers/year). Here we develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of MBH mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z 5 - 30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH mass, BH mass ratio, redshift, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our methodology works well at estimating merger parameters, consistently giving results within 1- of the input parameter values. We also discover that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models. This helps our method be robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach, which at this stage constitutes a proof of principle, can be readily extended to physical models and to more general problems in cosmology and gravitational wave astrophysics.

Alicea-Munoz, E.

Using Black Hole Mergers to Explore Structure Formation

Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers will open a new window into the era of structure formation in the early universe. Past efforts have concentrated on calculating merger rates using different physical assumptions, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a wide range (0.1 - 1 0A4 mergers/year). We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of massive black hole mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approx. 5 - 30 epoch. Our approach involves generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH masses, BH mass ratios, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, thus finding constraints for the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our method works well at estimating merger parameters and that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models, therefore making our method robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach can also be extended to more physically-driven models and more general problems in cosmology.

Alicea-Munoz, E.

Using Black Hole Mergers to Explore Structure Formation

Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers will open a new window into the era of structure formation in the early universe. Past efforts have concentrated on calculating merger rates using different physical assumptions, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a wide range (0.1 - 10(exp 4) mergers/year). We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of massive black hole mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approximately equal to 5-30 epoch. Our approach involves generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH masses, BH mass ratios, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, thus finding constraints for the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our method works well at estimating merger parameters and that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models, therefore making our method robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach can also be extended to more physically-driven models and more general problems in cosmology. This work is supported in part by the Cooperative Education Program at NASA/GSFC.

Alicea-Munoz, E.

Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation

Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the era of structure formation in the early universe. Previous research in this field has been limited to calculating merger rates of MBHs using different models where many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span 5 to 6 orders of magnitude. We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters involved in the mergers. which we then turn around to determine how well LISA observations will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approximately equal to 5-30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (masses, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers.

Alicea-Munoz, Emily

A Galactic Binary Detection Pipeline

The Galaxy is suspected to contain hundreds of millions of binary white dwarf systems, a large fraction of which will have sufficiently small orbital period to emit gravitational radiation in band for space-based gravitational wave detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). LISA's main science goal is the detection of cosmological events (supermassive black hole mergers, etc.) however the gravitational signal from the galaxy will be the dominant contribution to the data - including instrumental noise over approximately two decades in frequency. The catalogue of detectable binary systems will serve as an unparalleled means of studying the Galaxy. Furthermore, to maximize the scientific return from the mission, the data must be "cleansed" of the galactic foreground. We will present an algorithm that can accurately resolve and subtract 2:: 10000 of these sources from simulated data supplied by the Mock LISA Data Challenge Task Force. Using the time evolution of the gravitational wave frequency, we will reconstruct the position of the recovered binaries and show how LISA will sample the entire compact binary population in the Galaxy.

Littenberg, Tyson B.

Mathematical analysis techniques for modeling the space network activities

The objective of the present work was to explore and identify mathematical analysis techniques, and in particular, the use of linear programming. This topic was then applied to the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) in order to understand the space network better. Finally, a small scale version of the system was modeled, variables were identified, data was gathered, and comparisons were made between actual and theoretical data.

Foster, Lisa M.

LISA Framework for Enhancing Gravitational Wave Signal Extraction Techniques

This paper describes the development of a Framework for benchmarking and comparing signal-extraction and noise-interference-removal methods that are applicable to interferometric Gravitational Wave detector systems. The primary use is towards comparing signal and noise extraction techniques at LISA frequencies from multiple (possibly confused) ,gravitational wave sources. The Framework includes extensive hybrid learning/classification algorithms, as well as post-processing regularization methods, and is based on a unique plug-and-play (component) architecture. Published methods for signal extraction and interference removal at LISA Frequencies are being encoded, as well as multiple source noise models, so that the stiffness of GW Sensitivity Space can be explored under each combination of methods. Furthermore, synthetic datasets and source models can be created and imported into the Framework, and specific degraded numerical experiments can be run to test the flexibility of the analysis methods. The Framework also supports use of full current LISA Testbeds, Synthetic data systems, and Simulators already in existence through plug-ins and wrappers, thus preserving those legacy codes and systems in tact. Because of the component-based architecture, all selected procedures can be registered or de-registered at run-time, and are completely reusable, reconfigurable, and modular.

Thompson, David E.

LISA Activities at NASA

NASA will participate as a junior partner in the ESA-led LISA mission, which will provide the first view of the universe in milliHertz gravitational waves. While the exact set of NASA-provided contributions is still under negotiation, they are expected to include significant contributions to the LISA instrument and participation in the scientific operations of the observatory. The NASA LISA Study Office is tasked with coordinating NASA’s activities on LISA including the development of a number of technologies as candidate contributions to the LISA payload as well as collaboration with ESA and the LISA Consortium on development of the LISA spacecraft, instrument, data analysis infrastructure, and science case. This talk will provide an overview of these activities, their current status, and an outlook for progress in the near-term.

Ira Thorpe

Adiabatic Gravitational Waveform Model for Compact Objects Undergoing Quasi-Circular Inspirals Into Rotating Massive Black Holes

We present bhpwave: a new python-based, open-source tool for generating the gravitational waveforms of stellar-mass compact objects undergoing quasicircular inspirals into rotating massive black holes. These binaries, known as extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs), are exciting mHz gravitational wave sources for future space-based detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Relativistic models of EMRI gravitational wave signals are necessary to unlock the full scientific potential of mHz detectors, yet few open-source EMRI waveform models exist. Thus we built bhpwave, which uses the adiabatic approximation from black hole perturbation theory to rapidly construct gravitational waveforms based on the leading-order inspiral dynamics of the binary. In this work, we present the theoretical and numerical foundations underpinning bhpwave. We also demonstrate how bhpwave can be used to assess the impact of EMRI modeling errors on LISA gravitational wave data analysis. In particular, we find that for retrograde orbits and slowly spinning black holes we can mismodel the gravitational wave phasing by as much as ∼10 radians without significantly biasing EMRI parameter estimation.

Zachary Nasipak

ST7 Disturbance Reduction System (DRS) Colloid Micronewton Thruster Performance and Control Algorithm Model Simulation Validation in Flight

Colloid Micronewton Thrusters (CMNT) were flight demonstrated for the first time on the ST7Disturbance Reduction System (DRS) payload on the European Space Agency (ESA) Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Pathfinder spacecraft for attitude and drag-free spacecraft control. LISA Pathfinder was a technology demonstration mission for ESA’s LISA gravitational wave observatory, currently in Phase A with a launch date of 2034. The DRS included the Integrated Avionics Unit (IAU), eight Colloid Micronewton Thrusters (CMNT), Dynamic Control Software (DCS) and Flight Software (FSW). The CMNT technology met performance requirements operating at 5-30 µN of thrust with ≤0.1 µN resolution and ≤0.1 µN/Hz thrust noise to deliver the required nanometer-level precision spacecraft control measured by the gravitational reference sensor (GRS) in the ESA LISA Technology Package (LTP). The performance of seven of the CMNT in flight was consistent with ground test results. The colloid thruster performance model of thrust and thrust noise as a function of operational parameters (i.e. beam current, voltage, temperature, etc.) was validated in flight over a wide range of conditions. A model and simulation of the thruster control algorithm was developed and validated with flight data to predict thrust noise. This capability is important because it is considered to be a significant source of position noise on the spacecraft and, therefore, the acceleration noise on the test masses, which provide the gravity wave measurements. The CMNT thruster model data and validation with LISA Pathfinder/ST7-DRS flight experiments are discussed in this paper.

Hruby, Vlad