Validation of Space Weather Data using LISA Pathfinder historical sensor records [Slides]
LANL missions can be affected by space weather.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
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Impact of LISA's Low Frequency Sensitivity on Observations of Massive Black Hole Mergers
LISA will be able to detect gravitational waves from inspiralling massive black hole (MBH) binaries out to redshifts z > 10. If the binary masses and luminosity distances can be extracted from the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data stream, this information can be used to reveal the merger history of MBH binaries and their host galaxies in the evolving universe. Since this parameter extraction generally requires that LISA observe the inspiral for a significant fraction of its yearly orbit, carrying out this program requires adequate sensitivity at low frequencies, f < 10(exp -4) Hz. Using several candidate low frequency sensitivities, we examine LISA's potential for characterizing MBH binary coalescences at redshifts z > 1.
Baker, J.↗
Prospects for fundamental physics with LISA
In this paper, which is of programmatic rather than quantitative nature, we aim to further delineate and sharpen the future potential of the LISA mission in the area of fundamental physics. Given the very broad range of topics that might be relevant to LISA,we present here a sample of what we view as particularly promising fundamental physics directions. We organize these directions through a “science-first” approach that allows us to classify how LISA data can inform theoretical physics in a variety of areas. For each of these theoretical physics classes, we identify the sources that are currently expected to provide the principal contribution to our knowledge, and the areas that need further development. Overall, the classification presented here should not be thought of as cast in stone, but rather as a fluid framework that is amenable to change with the flow of new insights in theoretical physics.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Investigations into Gravitational Wave Emission from Compact Body Inspiral into Massive Black Holes
In contrast to year 1 (when much of the activity associated with this grant focused upon developing our group at MIT), year 2 was a period of very focused attention on research problems. We made significant progress developing relativistic waveforms for the extreme mass ratio inspiral problem; we have pushed forward a formalism our group developed for mapping the spacetimes of massive compact objects; and, in collaboration with the Caltech group, we began to develop a framework for addressing issues in LISA data analysis for extreme mass ratio systems.
Hughes, Scott A.↗
The LISA Science Ground Segment
The mHz band of the gravitational wave (GW) spectrum contains an unprecedented abundance of galactic, extra-galactic, and cosmological sources. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will survey the mHz GW band and provide unique observational constraints on the formation and evolution of compact binaries in the Milky Way, the origin and growth of massive black holes throughout cosmic history, the dynamics of dense stellar environments in galactic nuclei, the fundamental nature of gravity and black holes, and more. The richness of the LISA data comes at the price of a more complicated analysis framework than is required for currently operating GW observatories.
Tyson B. Littenberg↗
Mind the Gap: Addressing Data Gaps and Assessing Noise Mismodeling in LISA
Due to the sheer complexity of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) space mission, data gaps arising from instrumental irregularities and/or scheduled maintenance are unavoidable. Focusing on merger-dominated massive black hole binary signals, we test the appropriateness of the Whittle-likelihood on gapped data in a variety of cases. From first principles, we derive the likelihood valid for gapped data in both the time and frequency domains. Cheap-to-evaluate proxies to p-p plots are derived based on a Fisher-based formalism, and verified through Bayesian techniques. Our tools allow to predict the altered variance in the parameter estimates that arises from noise mismodeling, as well as the information loss represented by the broadening of the posteriors. The result of noise mismodeling with gaps is sensitive to the characteristics of the noise model, with strong low-frequency (red) noise and strong high-frequency (blue) noise giving statistically significant fluctuations in recovered parameters. We demonstrate that the introduction of a tapering window reduces statistical inconsistency errors, at the cost of less precise parameter estimates. We also show that the assumption of independence between inter-gap segments appears to be a fair approximation even if the data set is inherently coherent. However, if one instead assumes fictitious correlations in the data stream, when the data segments are actually independent, then the resultant parameter recoveries could be inconsistent with the true parameters. The theoretical and numerical practices that are presented in this work could readily be incorporated into global-fit pipelines operating on gapped data.
LISA↗
Data Analysis for the LISA Pathfinder Mission
The LTP (LISA Technology Package) is the core part of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Pathfinder mission. The main goal of the mission is to study the sources of any disturbances that perturb the motion of the freely-falling test masses from their geodesic trajectories as well as 10 test various technologies needed for LISA. The LTP experiment is designed as a sequence of experimental runs in which the performance of the instrument is studied and characterized under different operating conditions. In order to best optimize subsequent experimental runs, each run must be promptly analysed to ensure that the following ones make best use of the available knowledge of the instrument ' In order to do this, all analyses must be designed and tested in advance of the mission and have sufficient built-in flexibility to account for unexpected results or behaviour. To support this activity, a robust and flexible data analysis software package is also required. This poster presents two of the main components that make up the data analysis effort: the data analysis software and the mock-data challenges used to validate analysis procedures and experiment designs.
Thorpe, James Ira↗
Optimal data analysis strategies for LISA
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inteferometer gravitational waves LISA↗
Synthetic LISA: simulating time-delay interferometry in a model LISA
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gravitational waves↗
Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation
Intense structure formation and reionization occur at high redshift, yet there is currently little observational information about this very important epoch. Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the formation of structures in the early universe. Past efforts have been limited to calculating merger rates using different models in which many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a very wide range (0.1 - 104 mergers/year). Here we develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of MBH mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z 5 - 30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH mass, BH mass ratio, redshift, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our methodology works well at estimating merger parameters, consistently giving results within 1- of the input parameter values. We also discover that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models. This helps our method be robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach, which at this stage constitutes a proof of principle, can be readily extended to physical models and to more general problems in cosmology and gravitational wave astrophysics.
Alicea-Munoz, E.↗
Using Black Hole Mergers to Explore Structure Formation
Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers will open a new window into the era of structure formation in the early universe. Past efforts have concentrated on calculating merger rates using different physical assumptions, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a wide range (0.1 - 1 0A4 mergers/year). We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of massive black hole mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approx. 5 - 30 epoch. Our approach involves generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH masses, BH mass ratios, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, thus finding constraints for the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our method works well at estimating merger parameters and that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models, therefore making our method robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach can also be extended to more physically-driven models and more general problems in cosmology.
Alicea-Munoz, E.↗
Using Black Hole Mergers to Explore Structure Formation
Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers will open a new window into the era of structure formation in the early universe. Past efforts have concentrated on calculating merger rates using different physical assumptions, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a wide range (0.1 - 10(exp 4) mergers/year). We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of massive black hole mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approximately equal to 5-30 epoch. Our approach involves generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH masses, BH mass ratios, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, thus finding constraints for the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our method works well at estimating merger parameters and that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models, therefore making our method robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach can also be extended to more physically-driven models and more general problems in cosmology. This work is supported in part by the Cooperative Education Program at NASA/GSFC.
Alicea-Munoz, E.↗
Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation
Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the era of structure formation in the early universe. Previous research in this field has been limited to calculating merger rates of MBHs using different models where many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span 5 to 6 orders of magnitude. We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters involved in the mergers. which we then turn around to determine how well LISA observations will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approximately equal to 5-30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (masses, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers.
Alicea-Munoz, Emily↗
A Galactic Binary Detection Pipeline
The Galaxy is suspected to contain hundreds of millions of binary white dwarf systems, a large fraction of which will have sufficiently small orbital period to emit gravitational radiation in band for space-based gravitational wave detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). LISA's main science goal is the detection of cosmological events (supermassive black hole mergers, etc.) however the gravitational signal from the galaxy will be the dominant contribution to the data - including instrumental noise over approximately two decades in frequency. The catalogue of detectable binary systems will serve as an unparalleled means of studying the Galaxy. Furthermore, to maximize the scientific return from the mission, the data must be "cleansed" of the galactic foreground. We will present an algorithm that can accurately resolve and subtract 2:: 10000 of these sources from simulated data supplied by the Mock LISA Data Challenge Task Force. Using the time evolution of the gravitational wave frequency, we will reconstruct the position of the recovered binaries and show how LISA will sample the entire compact binary population in the Galaxy.
Littenberg, Tyson B.↗
Laser Interferometer Tracking System Signal Processing
Algorithms for processing the LISA Laser Interferometer Tracking System (LTIS) data are presented.
LISA data↗
Adaptation of fan motor and VFD efficiency correlations using Bayesian inference
Energy performance contracts (EPC) are types of agreements in which a service provider guarantees that customers’ buildings will achieve a specified energy performance (i.e., minimum energy savings) to reduce the risk of their investment in energy efficiency improvements. EPC requires prediction of future energy consumption of the building, at the design stage, before construction or major retrofit. To this end, building energy simulations taking into account all the major energy-using components are performed. In particular, fans can contribute significantly to the total building consumption. The overall efficiency of fans is the combination of three factors: mechanical, motor, and variable frequency drive (VFD). Manufacturers usually provide fan mechanical efficiency curves for a broad operating range. In contrast, motor and VFD efficiencies are generally given at rating conditions only. To represent part-load conditions, correlations are typically used to estimate motor and VFD efficiency variations, to evaluate the overall electricity consumption. The first aim of this study is to evaluate existing correlations for motor and VFD efficiency as a function of load and speed, by comparison with manufacturer data, for a vendor that has shared its detailed test data. While VFD efficiency correlations from the literature provide reasonable accuracy against real data, motor correlations under predict actual motor efficiency at low loads. Finally, the second aim of the paper is to improve such correlations using Bayesian inference to fit the available data.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Semisupervised Learning for Seismic Monitoring Applications
The impressive performance that deep neural networks demonstrate on a range of seismic monitoring tasks depends largely on the availability of event catalogs that have been manually curated over many years or decades. However, the quality, duration, and availability of seismic event catalogs vary significantly across the range of monitoring operations, regions, and objectives. Semisupervised learning (SSL) enables learning from both labeled and unlabeled data and provides a framework to leverage the abundance of unreviewed seismic data for training deep neural networks on a variety of target tasks. We apply two SSL algorithms (mean-teacher and virtual adversarial training) as well as a novel hybrid technique (exponential average adversarial training) to seismic event classification to examine how unlabeled data with SSL can enhance model performance. In general, we find that SSL can perform as well as supervised learning with fewer labels. We also observe in some scenarios that almost half of the benefits of SSL are the result of the meaningful regularization enforced through SSL techniques and may not be attributable to unlabeled data directly. Lastly, the benefits from unlabeled data scale with the difficulty of the predictive task when we evaluate the use of unlabeled data to characterize sources in new geographic regions. Finally, in geographic areas where supervised model performance is low, SSL significantly increases the accuracy of source-type classification using unlabeled data.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Mathematical analysis techniques for modeling the space network activities
The objective of the present work was to explore and identify mathematical analysis techniques, and in particular, the use of linear programming. This topic was then applied to the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) in order to understand the space network better. Finally, a small scale version of the system was modeled, variables were identified, data was gathered, and comparisons were made between actual and theoretical data.
Foster, Lisa M.↗