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Results for “LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1974

SEASAT economic assessment

The SEASAT program will provide scientific and economic benefits from global remote sensing of the ocean's dynamic and physical characteristics. The program as presently envisioned consists of: (1) SEASAT A; (2) SEASAT B; and (3) Operational SEASAT. This economic assessment was to identify, rationalize, quantify and validate the economic benefits evolving from SEASAT. These benefits will arise from improvements in the operating efficiency of systems that interface with the ocean. SEASAT data will be combined with data from other ocean and atmospheric sampling systems and then processed through analytical models of the interaction between oceans and atmosphere to yield accurate global measurements and global long range forecasts of ocean conditions and weather.

Hicks, K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Long Term Stability Monitoring of Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands through Radiative Transfer Modeling

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been in operation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since 2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitored through inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral infrared sensors, such as AIRS on Aqua and IASI on MetOp satellite, or through long term vicarious monitoring over cold targets, such as Dome- C and deep convective clouds (DCC). In this paper, a radiative transfer modeling-based simulation model using Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is developed to perform the long-term monitoring of the stability of TEBs of Aqua MODIS. CRTM is a fast-radiative transfer model for calculations of radiances for satellite infrared radiometers and is able to output infrared radiance and brightness temperature at spectral bands of MODIS. Long term European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis data, such as temperature and humidity profiles, are used as inputs to the CRTM simulation. By confining the area of interest to be over low to middle latitude ocean, the long-term stabilities of selected Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through Observation–Background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements and BT retrieval from CRTM simulation. The consistency and relative stability between Aqua MODIS and ECMWF reanalysis data for surface channels of MODIS are evaluated. In addition, the radiative transfer modeling with CRTM enables us to evaluate the impacts of long term variation of global CO2 distribution on the O-B BT biases for CO2 channels of Aqua MODIS through comparison of simulations with constant or long term variable CO2 as inputs. The O-B analysis with RTM show that Aqua MODIS surface channels are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drift less than 0.004K/year for B20, B22, B23 and ~0.01K/year for B31 and B32. The CO2 absorption channels of Aqua MODIS, e.g. B33-B36, are stable with BT bias drift < 0.005K/year.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Monthly means of selected climate variables for 1985 - 1989

Meteorologists are accustomed to viewing instantaneous weather maps, since these contain the most relevant information for the task of producing short-range weather forecasts. Climatologists, on the other hand, tend to deal with long-term means, which portray the average climate. The recent emphasis on dynamical extended-range forecasting and, in particular measuring and predicting short term climate change makes it important that we become accustomed to looking at variations on monthly and longer time scales. A convenient toll for researchers to familiarize themselves with the variability which occurs in selected parameters on these time scales is provided. The format of the document was chosen to help facilitate the intercomparison of various parameters and highlight the year-to-year variability in monthly means.

Schubert, S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Large Scale Variability of Mid-Tropospheric Carbon Dioxide as Observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the NASA EOS Aqua Platform

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral infrared instrument on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft, launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS has 2378 infrared channels ranging from 3.7 microns to 15.4 microns and a 13.5 km footprint. AIRS, in conjunction with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), produces temperature profiles with 1K/km accuracy, water vapor profiles (20%/2km), infrared cloud height and fraction, and trace gas amounts for CO2, CO, SO2, O3 and CH4 in the mid to upper troposphere. AIRS wide swath(cedilla) +/-49.5 deg , enables daily global daily coverage for over 95% of the Earth's surface. AIRS data are used for weather forecasting, validating climate model distribution and processes, and observing long-range transport of greenhouse gases. In this study, we examine the large scale and regional horizontal variability in the AIRS Mid-tropospheric Carbon Dioxide product as a function of season and associate the observed variability with known atmospheric transport processes, and sources and sinks of CO2.

carbon dioxide↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long range forecasts of the Northern Hemisphere anomalies with antecedent sea surface temperature patterns

The contract research has been conducted in the following three major areas: analysis of numerical simulations and parallel observations of atmospheric blocking, diagnosis of the lower boundary heating and the response of the atmospheric circulation, and comprehensive assessment of long-range forecasting with numerical and regression methods. The essential scientific and developmental purpose of this contract research is to extend our capability of numerical weather forecasting by the comprehensive general circulation model. The systematic work as listed above is thus geared to developing a technological basis for future NASA long-range forecasting.

Kung, Ernest C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The ACCP Inclined Orbit Project: Enabling New and Synergistic Aerosol Remote Sensing Inversions

Atmospheric aerosols have high spatiotemporal variations due to their diverse sources including windblown dust, wildfires, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic emissions. These aerosols also have strong diurnal emission characteristics that influence long-range transport, air quality, Earth’s radiation budget, biogeochemical cycles, and weather forecasting. While current sensors can measure the steady-state of global 3D cloud and aerosol properties, we lack the observational datasets to discover the diurnal variability of aerosols, even at seasonal and regional scales, because these missions utilize sun synchronous orbits. An Aerosols and Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) observing system has been established as part of NASA’s new Earth System Observatory (ESO) to fulfill the science needs presented in the 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey. The selected ACCP architecture encompasses sensors in two orbit planes, one of which utilizes an inclined orbit (nominally ~55 degrees at a 407 km altitude) to advance our understanding of aerosol and cloud properties and target the dynamics of the cloud and aerosol processes on sub-daily time scales. The anticipated instrumentation suite for the ACCP Inclined Orbit Project is a Stereo Camera System, Polarimeter, Microwave Radiometer, Two-Frequency Radar, and Backscatter Lidar. The polarimeter is expected to have multiple wavelength bands and viewing angles to enable accurate retrievals of aerosol microphysical and optical properties. The backscatter lidar will provide vertical profiles of attenuated backscatter and depolarization ratio at two wavelengths, with better daytime signal-to-noise ratio than previous space-based lidar systems to improve aerosol detection/typing and estimates of aerosol optical properties. The stereo camera system, while designed primarily for clouds, will also provide aerosol plume heights and air motions at the plume heights. This invited presentation will provide (1) an overview of the ACCP Inclined Orbit Project, (2) a description of the new sensor capabilities and orbital characteristics, and (3) a preview of the potential for new synergistic aerosol inversion techniques.

John E Yorks↗
NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of quasi-geostrophic planetary waves in global and hemispheric domains

Factors which affect the long term predictability, and also the feasibility of defining an ultimate level of weather predictability, are discussed. It is noted that current models yield a one week forecast at the best. Long range predictability, however, is a restriction on the knowledge of evolutive processes of the atmosphere, and does not characterize the prediction of specific atmospheric quantities. The influences of local phenomena such as cyclones and other nonlinear processes can cause planetary waves which affect the predictability of weather everywhere. It is suggested that any successful prediction model will necessarily account for the evolution of ultralong waves. Although significant differences in predictions have been found between hemispheric and global predictions, the location of the errors in extrapolating the hemispheric to the global scale have been identified.

Roads, J. O.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Clouds in ECMWF's 30 KM Resolution Global Atmospheric Forecast Model (TL639)

Global models of the general circulation of the atmosphere resolve a wide range of length scales, and in particular cloud structures extend from planetary scales to the smallest scales resolvable, now down to 30 km in state-of-the-art models. Even the highest resolution models do not resolve small-scale cloud phenomena seen, for example, in Landsat and other high-resolution satellite images of clouds. Unresolved small-scale disturbances often grow into larger ones through non-linear processes that transfer energy upscale. Understanding upscale cascades is of crucial importance in predicting current weather, and in parameterizing cloud-radiative processes that control long term climate. Several movie animations provide examples of the temporal and spatial variation of cloud fields produced in 4-day runs of the forecast model at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, England, at particular times and locations of simultaneous measurement field campaigns. model resolution is approximately 30 km horizontally (triangular truncation TL639) with 31 vertical levels from surface to stratosphere. Timestep of the model is about 10 minutes, but animation frames are 3 hours apart, at timesteps when the radiation is computed. The animations were prepared from an archive of several 4-day runs at the highest available model resolution, and archived at ECMWF. Cloud, wind and temperature fields in an approximately 1000 km X 1000 km box were retrieved from the archive, then approximately 60 Mb Vis5d files were prepared with the help of Graeme Kelly of ECMWF, and were compressed into MPEG files each less than 3 Mb. We discuss the interaction of clouds and radiation in the model, and compare the variability of cloud liquid as a function of scale to that seen in cloud observations made in intensive field campaigns. Comparison of high-resolution global runs to cloud-resolving models, and to lower resolution climate models is leading to better understanding of the upscale cascade and suggesting new cloud-radiation parameterizations for climate models.

Cahalan, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic as opposed to the deterministic shorter range forecasts. Despite the known low level of confidence with respect to long range convective forecasts, these data are still useful to a DST routing algorithm. It is better to develop an aircraft route using the best information available than no information. The temporally coarse long range forecast data needs to be interpolated to be useful to a DST. A DST uses aircraft trajectory predictions that need to be evaluated for impacts by convective storms. Each time-step of a trajectory prediction n&s to be checked against weather data. For the case of coarse temporal data, there needs to be a method fill in weather data where there is none. Simply using the coarse weather data without any interpolation can result in DST routes that are impacted by regions of strong convection. Increasing the temporal resolution of these data can be achieved but result in a large dataset that may prove to be an operational challenge in transmission and loading by a DST. Currently, it takes about 7mins retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast file from NOAA at NASA-Ames Research Center. A prototype NCWF6 1 hour forecast is about 3mb in size. A Six hour NCWFG forecast with a 1hr forecast time-step will be about l8mb (6 x 3mb). A 6 hour NCWF6 forecast with a l5min forecast time-step will be about 7mb (24 x 3mb). Based on the time it takes to retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast, it will take approximately 70mins to retrieve a 6 hour NCWF forecast with 15min time steps. Until those issues are addressed, there is a need to develop an algorithm that interpolates between these temporally coarse long range forecasts. This paper describes a method of how to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts in a DST. The beginning of this paper is a description of some convective weather forecast and observation products followed by an example of how weather data are used by a DST. The subsequent sections will describe probabilistic forecasts followed by a descrtion of a method to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts by providing a relevance value to these data outside of their valid times.

Chan, William N.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interannual Variations in Aerosol Sources and Their Impact on Orographic Precipitation Over California's Central Sierra Nevada

Aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) have the potential to profoundly influence precipitation processes. Furthermore, changes in orographic precipitation have broad implications for reservoir storage and flood risks. As part of the CalWater I field campaign (2009-2011), the impacts of aerosol sources on precipitation were investigated in the California Sierra Nevada. In 2009, the precipitation collected on the ground was influenced by both local biomass burning (up to 79% of the insoluble residues found in precipitation) and long-range transported dust and biological particles (up to 80% combined), while in 2010, by mostly local sources of biomass burning and pollution (30-79% combined), and in 2011 by mostly long-range transport from distant sources (up to 100% dust and biological). Although vast differences in the source of residues was observed from year-to-year, dust and biological residues were omnipresent (on average, 55% of the total residues combined) and were associated with storms consisting of deep convective cloud systems and larger quantities of precipitation initiated in the ice phase. Further, biological residues were dominant during storms with relatively warm cloud temperatures (up to -15 C), suggesting these particles were more efficient IN compared to mineral dust. On the other hand, lower percentages of residues from local biomass burning and pollution were observed (on average 31% and 9%, respectively), yet these residues potentially served as CCN at the base of shallow cloud systems when precipitation quantities were low. The direct connection of the source of aerosols within clouds and precipitation type and quantity can be used in models to better assess how local emissions versus long-range transported dust and biological aerosols play a role in impacting regional weather and climate, ultimately with the goal of more accurate predictive weather forecast models and water resource management.

Creamean, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Intercomparison of Snow Depth Retrievals over Arctic Sea Ice from Radar Data Acquired by Operation IceBridge

Since 2009, the ultra-wideband snow radar on Operation IceBridge (OIB; a NASA airborne mission to survey the polar ice covers) has acquired data in annual campaigns conducted during the Arctic and Antarctic springs. Progressive improvements in radar hardware and data processing methodologies have led to improved data quality for subsequent retrieval of snow depth. Existing retrieval algorithms differ in the way the air-snow (a-s) and snow-ice (s-i) interfaces are detected and localized in the radar returns and in how the system limitations are addressed (e.g., noise, resolution). In 2014, the Snow Thickness On Sea Ice Working Group (STOSIWG) was formed and tasked with investigating how radar data quality affects snow depth retrievals and how retrievals from the various algorithms differ. The goal is to understand the limitations of the estimates and to produce a well-documented, long-term record that can be used for understanding broader changes in the Arctic climate system. Here, we assess five retrieval algorithms by comparisons with field measurements from two groundbased campaigns, including the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) at Barrow, Alaska; a field program by Environment and Climate Change Canada at Eureka, Nunavut; and available climatology and snowfall from ERA-Interim (ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis) reanalysis. The aim is to examine available algorithms and to use the assessment results to inform the development of future approaches. We present results from these assessments and highlight key considerations for the production of a long-term, calibrated geophysical record of springtime snow thickness over Arctic sea ice.

Operation IceBridge↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Satellite Systems for Measuring Soil Moisture

The science need for remotely sensed soil moisture has been well established in the hydrologic, climate change and weather forecasting communities. There also have been a number of programs that have demonstrated the feasibility of using long wave microwave sensors for estimating soil moisture. These have ranged from truck mounted sensors, to intensive airborne campaigns with science objectives. Based on this history of truck and aircraft experiments, the science community has settled on a soil moisture product that meets the following criteria: a two day global repeat, a measured layer of 5 cm of soil, a footprint of 20 to 30 km, and an absolute accuracy of +/- 4% volumetric soil moisture. The principal sensor to accomplish this is an L-band passive microwave radiometer. A soil moisture mission is being proposed for the NASA Earth Systems Science Pathfinder (ESSP) mission which has very real constraints of a limited budget which includes the launch vehicle, and a three year award to launch time schedule. This paper describes ways to solve the very large antenna challenge, and the criteria used to choose the final design for an ESSP proposal. The paper also discusses the alternatives considered to obtain the necessary ancillary data for characterizing the surface roughness, the surface temperature and the attenuation affects of vegetation.

Engman, Edwin T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Evaluation and Intercomparison Using Data Collected by the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar in Hampton, Virginia

Throughout the year 2022, the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) has been frequently collecting ozone and aerosol measurements in the lower troposphere. The lidar is located in the parking lot behind the Atmospheric Sciences building at NASA Langley in Hampton, Virginia, approximately 37.095 N, -76.389 W. The data was collected during a range of several distinct atmospheric conditions, including stratospheric intrusions, surface frontal passages, and long-range transported wildfire smoke plumes. We use this data to evaluate and intercompare the forecast accuracy of two atmospheric chemistry models: the GEOS Composition Forecasting model (GEOS-CF) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Both models make daily three-dimensional forecasts of many trace gases and species for the contiguous United States. Over a range of ten distinct collection events, each spanning 36 hours to nearly seven days, the forecast models predict tropospheric ozone at NASA Langley with reasonable accuracy. The models best predict the timing and shape of the observed stratospheric intrusions in the middle troposphere but often vary in the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratios. For other atmospheric conditions, there is more variability in the model accuracy. Here, we summarize the accuracy of the models for all events and investigate reasons for differences between the models and the lidar.

Daniel B. Phoenix↗
NASA NTRS1979

The mechanism of temperature and pressure changes in the Earth's atmosphere during solar flares

The effect of solar flares on the weather on Earth is examined. It is concluded that the processes which arise in the atmosphere are so intricate that a single calculation of solar activity is insufficient for long-range forecasting. However, combined consideration of processes dependent upon the dynamic instability of the atmosphere and the effect of solar activity will contribute to the improvement of long-range forecasts.

Reshetov, V. D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Current and Future Applications of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery for Weather Analysis and Forecasting Applications

Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low ]Earth orbits. The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA fs Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channels available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT ]9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic ]scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES ]R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar ]Orbiting Partnership (S ]NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross ]track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites. New applications from VIIRS extend multispectral composites available from MODIS and SEVIRI while adding new capabilities through incorporation of additional CrIS channels or information from the Near Constant Contrast or gDay ]Night Band h, which provides moonlit reflectance from clouds and detection of fires or city lights. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and recent applications within the operational forecasting environment

Molthan, Andrew L.↗