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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Not Detectable in Warmest Month

Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy and water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies and spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence of the historical land use signal of daily maximum temperatures averaged over the warmest month of the year (t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection and attribution. We use observations from the Climatic Research Unit and Berkeley Earth alongside historical simulations with and without land use from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to reconstruct an experiment representing the effects of land use on climate. To assess the signal of land use at spatially resolved continental and global scales, we aggregate all input data across reference regions and continents, respectively. At both scales, land use does not comprise a significantly detectable set of forcings for two of four Earth system models and their multimodel mean. Furthermore, using a principal component analysis, we find that t LU is mostly composed of the nonlocal effects of land use rather than its local effects. These findings show that, at scales relevant for climate attribution, uncertainties in Earth system model representations of land use are too high relative to the effects of internal variability to confidently assess land use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

United States Multi-Sector Dynamics land use and land cover base maps to support Human-Earth System Modeling

Datasets are land use and land cover (LULC) rasterized base maps at 30-m resolution for the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the years 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Separate base maps are provided where LULC classifications are thematically congruent with Community Land Model (CLM), Land Use Harmonization (LUH2), and Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a detailed decomposition of all combined land classes into a Multisector Dynamics (MSD) LULC product. Base maps were developed using empirically derived satellite (National Land Cover Dataset, MODIS) and combined observation datasets (Crop Data Layer, Protected Areas Database) and represent the most up-to-date accurate information on LULC in the CONUS. The four datasets encompass four different landcover classification systems: MSD Layers - The raw landcover classes obtained from reclassifying NLCD and USDA Crop data layers into a respective landcover class GCAM Layers - The MSD classes mosaiced, reclassified, and combined into the respective GCAM landcover classes CLM Layers - Similar process to GCAM layers, but mosaiced, reclassified, and combined MSD layers to their respective PFT classes LUH2 Layers - Similar process to both GCAM and CLM Layers, but mosaiced, reclassified and combined the MSD layers to align with the respective states

Food↗
DOE OSTI2021

Amount and reactivity of dissolved organic matter export are affected by land cover change from old-growth to second-growth forests in headwater ecosystems

Headwater forest ecosystems of the western USA generate a large portion of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) transported in streams across North America. Land cover changes that alter forest structure and species composition affect the quantity and composition of DOM transferred to aquatic ecosystems. Clear-cut harvesting affects ~1% of the forest area of North America annually, leaving most western forests in varying stages of regrowth and the total area of old-growth forest is decreasing. The consequences of this widespread management practice on watershed carbon cycling remain unknown. We investigated the role of land cover change, because of clear-cut harvesting, from mixed-species old-growth to lodgepole pine-dominated second-growth forest on the character and reactivity of hillslope DOM exports. We evaluated inputs of DOM from litter leachates and export of DOM collected at the base of trenched hillslopes during a 3-year period (2016–2018) at the Fraser Experimental Forest in north-central Colorado, USA. Dissolved organic carbon and total dissolved nitrogen were higher in lateral subsurface flow draining old- versus second-growth forest. Fluorescence spectroscopy showed that the DOM exported from the old-growth forest was more heterogeneous and aromatic and that proteinaceous, microbially processed DOM components were more prevalent in the second-growth forest. Biological oxygen demand assays revealed much lower microbial metabolism of DOM in litter leachate and subsurface exports from the old-growth forest relative to second growth. Old-growth and second-growth forests are co-mingled in managed ecosystems, and our findings demonstrate that land cover change from a mixture of conifer species to lodgepole pine dominance influences DOM inputs that can increase the reactivity of DOM transferred from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, yet provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the GCAM. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Amount and reactivity of dissolved organic matter export are affected by land cover change from old‐growth to second‐growth forests in headwater ecosystems

Abstract Headwater forest ecosystems of the western USA generate a large portion of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) transported in streams across North America. Land cover changes that alter forest structure and species composition affect the quantity and composition of DOM transferred to aquatic ecosystems. Clear‐cut harvesting affects ~1% of the forest area of North America annually, leaving most western forests in varying stages of regrowth and the total area of old‐growth forest is decreasing. The consequences of this widespread management practice on watershed carbon cycling remain unknown. We investigated the role of land cover change, because of clear‐cut harvesting, from mixed‐species old‐growth to lodgepole pine‐dominated second‐growth forest on the character and reactivity of hillslope DOM exports. We evaluated inputs of DOM from litter leachates and export of DOM collected at the base of trenched hillslopes during a 3‐year period (2016–2018) at the Fraser Experimental Forest in north‐central Colorado, USA. Dissolved organic carbon and total dissolved nitrogen were higher in lateral subsurface flow draining old‐ versus second‐growth forest. Fluorescence spectroscopy showed that the DOM exported from the old‐growth forest was more heterogeneous and aromatic and that proteinaceous, microbially processed DOM components were more prevalent in the second‐growth forest. Biological oxygen demand assays revealed much lower microbial metabolism of DOM in litter leachate and subsurface exports from the old‐growth forest relative to second growth. Old‐growth and second‐growth forests are co‐mingled in managed ecosystems, and our findings demonstrate that land cover change from a mixture of conifer species to lodgepole pine dominance influences DOM inputs that can increase the reactivity of DOM transferred from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems.

Fegel, Timothy S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution (30-m) urban land cover projections for Los Angeles California Urban Area: 2010 to 2100 under SSP3 and SSP5 [Updated simulations based on population-driven urban intensity transitions]

These data (v3) are updated from previous versions (1 and 2) in that they include consider the effects of population on transitions in urban land intensity. This leads to more reasonable differences in urban land projections under variant SSPs. For the present dataset, both SSP3 and SSP5 are provided. These data represent simulations of future land use and land cover (LULCC) for Los Angeles urban area (U.S. Census Bureau defined area) as raster tiff images at a 30-m pixel resolution and at decadal time steps from 2010 to 2100. LULCC classes in this product follow the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) classification. NLCD 21-24 correspond to open developed, low developed, medium developed, and high developed urban land classes, respectively. Only urban land cover classes (NLCD class 21, 22, 23, and 24) are dynamic over time; however, all NLCD classes are included in the final product. Therefore, NLCD classes that do not convert to an urban class will be similar to year 2000. The products were developed using a hybridized statistical and cellular automata approach. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to estimate future urban land budgets based on 1-km urban land fraction projections from Gao and Pesaresi (2021), whereas separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to estimate shifts in urban land intensities based on retrospective shifts in NLCD urban class intensities over a 20- year period. Based on urban land allocations from the statistical models, a cellular-automata and downscaling routine was used to simulate dynamic urban land expansion at a 30-m resolution based on suitability criteria. Scenarios of future urban landcover change projections include variant solutions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) and SSP 3 based on different population assumptions, different land use intensification assumptions, variable land zoning constraints, and iterative adjustments to correct for over allocation of urban expansion across decadal time periods from 2010 to 2100. This results in 320 raster products.

Land↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land cover and space use influence coyote carnivory: evidence from stable-isotope analysis

For many species, the relationship between space use and diet composition is complex, with individuals adopting varying space use strategies such as territoriality to facilitate resource acquisition. Coyotes ( Canis latrans ) exhibit two disparate types of space use; defending mutually exclusive territories (residents) or moving nomadically across landscapes (transients). Resident coyotes have increased access to familiar food resources, thus improved foraging opportunities to compensate for the energetic costs of defending territories. Conversely, transients do not defend territories and are able to redirect energetic costs of territorial defense towards extensive movements in search of mates and breeding opportunities. These differences in space use attributed to different behavioral strategies likely influence foraging and ultimately diet composition, but these relationships have not been well studied. We investigated diet composition of resident and transient coyotes in the southeastern United States by pairing individual space use patterns with analysis of stable carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotope values to assess diet. During 2016–2017, we monitored 41 coyotes (26 residents, 15 transients) with GPS radio-collars along the Savannah River area in the southeastern United States. We observed a canopy effect on δ 13 C values and little anthropogenic food in coyote diets, suggesting 13 C enrichment is likely more influenced by reduced canopy cover than consumption of human foods. We also observed other land cover effects, such as agricultural cover and road density, on δ 15 N values as well as reduced space used by coyotes, suggesting that cover types and localized, resident-like space use can influence the degree of carnivory in coyotes. Finally, diets and niche space did not differ between resident and transient coyotes despite differences observed in the proportional contribution of potential food sources to their diets. Although our stable isotope mixing models detected differences between the diets of resident and transient coyotes, both relied mostly on mammalian prey (52.8%, SD = 15.9 for residents, 42.0%, SD = 15.6 for transients). Resident coyotes consumed more game birds (21.3%, SD = 11.6 vs 13.7%, SD = 8.8) and less fruit (10.5%, SD = 6.9 vs 21.3%, SD = 10.7) and insects (7.2%, SD = 4.7 vs 14.3%, SD = 8.5) than did transients. Our findings indicate that coyote populations fall on a feeding continuum of omnivory to carnivory in which variability in feeding strategies is influenced by land cover characteristics and space use behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular shifts in dissolved organic matter along a burn severity continuum for common land cover types in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Increasing wildfire severity is of growing concern in the western United States, with consequences for the production, composition, and mobilization of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial to aquatic systems. Our current understanding of wildfire impacted DOM (often termed pyrogenic DOM) composition is largely built from temperature-based studies that can be difficult to extrapolate to field conditions, which are often defined by ‘burn severity’, or the post-wildfire impact observed at a site. Thus, burn severity can encapsulate a broader range of fire and environmental conditions not exclusive to temperature. Biogeochemical studies that describe DOM along burn severity continuums remain limited but are needed to better link DOM composition with field conditions post-fire. Here, in this study, we addressed this need with an experimental open air burn simulation that generated chars from vegetation representative of major land cover types in the western United States. The chars were leached to simulate DOM mobilization potential. The DOM composition was characterized by ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry (HR-MS) and UV/VIS absorbance and fluorescence. Our results indicated that the shifts of DOM production and composition along a burn-severity gradient depends on the land cover type that was burned, with the degree of change dependent on the composition of the starting parent vegetation material. Fluorescence signatures indicated a strong convergence across land cover types to more aromatic DOM with increasing severity, while HR-MS indicated an increase in the production of aromatic nitrogen containing DOM with increasing severity. Results from this study enhance our ability to describe DOM composition in a framework that can be more directly related with field and remote-sensing based metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Does Land Cover and Its Heterogeneity Length Scales Affect the Formation of Summertime Shallow Cumulus Clouds in Observations From the US Southern Great Plains?

This study investigates the effects of heterogeneous land covers on shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds at the US Southern Great Plains using high-resolution satellite and land cover data. During late summer, ShCu occurs over cities the most frequently and over open waters the least frequently, and more often over forest than over grassland. The preferential occurrence of ShCu over forest relative to grassland is consistent with surface measurements showing larger heat fluxes over forests. This preferential occurrence also varies with the length scales of land patches with the largest cloud occurrence difference shifting from smaller length scales (<9 km) during midday to larger scales (>9 km) in the early afternoon. Consistent with theory, these signals are more pronounced under low wind conditions. The preferential length scale shift with time suggests the existence of secondary circulations that strengthen and promote convergence over larger spatial scales as the differential land surface heating intensifies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examining the Characteristics of the Cropland Data Layer in the Context of Estimating Land Cover Change

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) provides spatially explicit information about crop production area and has served as a prevalent data source for characterizing cropland change in the U.S. in the last decade. Understanding the accuracy of the CDL is paramount because of the reliance on it for management and policy making. This study examined the characteristics of the CDL from 2007 to 2017 using comparisons to other USDA datasets. The results showed when examining the cropland area for the same year, the CDL produced comparable trends with other datasets (R 2 > 0.95), but absolute area differed. The estimated area of cropland changes from 2007 to 2012, 2008 to 2012 and 2012 to 2017 varied from weak to moderate correlation between the CDL and the tabular data (R 2 = 0.005~0.63). Differences in area of cropland change varied widely between data sources with the CDL estimating much larger change area. A series of image processing techniques designed to improve the confidence in cropland change estimated using the CDL reduced the area of estimated cropland change. The techniques also, unexpectedly, lowered the correlation in change estimated between the CDL and the tabular datasets. Estimated land cover change area varied widely based on analyses applied and could reverse from increasing to declining area in cropland. Further analyses showed unlikely change scenarios when comparing different year combinations. The authors recommend the CDL only be used for land cover change analysis if the error can be estimated and is within change estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics and drivers of land use and land cover changes in Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh has undergone dramatic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in recent years, but no quantitative analysis of LULCC drivers at the national scale exists so far. Here, we quantified the drivers of major LULCC in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic observations at the sub-district level. We used Landsat satellite data to interpret LULCC from 2000 to 2010 and employed a Global Surface Water Dataset to account for the influences of water seasonality. The results suggest that major LULCC in Bangladesh occur between agricultural land and waterbodies and between forest and shrubland. Exclusion of seasonal waterbodies can improve the accuracy of our LULCC results and driver analysis. Although the gross gain and loss of agricultural land are large on the local scale, the net change (gross gain minus gross loss) at a country scale is almost negligible. Climate dynamics and extreme events and changes in urban and rural households were driving the changes from forest to shrubland in the southeast region. The conversion from agricultural land to standing waterbodies in the southwest region was mainly driven by urban household dynamics, population growth, distance to cities and major roads, and precipitation dynamics. This study, which is the first effort accounting for water seasonality and quantifying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of LULCC at the national scale, provides a perspective on overall LULCC and underlying drivers over a decadal time scale and national spatial scale and can serve as a scientific basis for developing land policies in Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Farm Practice Typologies as a Strategy for Management-Relevant Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in the Great Lakes Region (Version 1) [Dataset]

Dataset overview and development This dataset provides spatially explicit agricultural land-use and land-management typologies developed for the Great Lakes Region (GLR) at the farm-parcel level. The typologies were designed to characterize not only the land-use and land-cover (LULC) associated with individual agricultural farm parcels, but also the land-management practices (LMPs), including irrigation, tile drainage, and conservation easements, occurring within those parcels and how these characteristics change through time. The dataset contains four related typology products: Annual integrated typology – describes the combined LULC and land-management characteristics for each farm parcel for individual years. LULC transition typology – describes the temporal pattern of LULC change for each farm parcel across the study period (2008-2023). LMP trend typology – describes the temporal pattern in the occurrence of LMPs for each farm parcel across the study period. Multi-year integrated typology – combines the LULC transition typology and LMP trend typology to provide an integrated characterization of long-term land-use and management patterns. Purpose of the dataset The purpose of these products is to provide a management-relevant integrated and consistent framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal organization of agricultural landscapes across the GLR. The resulting typologies can: support landscape-scale environmental and land-use analysis; provide spatial information relevant to land-management strategies, conservation planning, policy development, and program evaluation; characterize spatial patterns of agricultural land use and management; examine changes in agricultural landscapes through time; and identify persistent, transitional, and changing agricultural systems. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent land cover changes in the Southwestern US lead to an increase in surface temperature

The increase in large-scale land cover change (LCC) in recent decades, particularly in response to climate-driven disturbances, has potential to impact local and regional changes in climate due to modification of carbon sources and sinks, albedo, surface roughness and energy fluxes. Using observational data, we predict the impact of two of the most extensive LCCs occurring in the Southwestern US: drought-induced tree mortality and shrub encroachment into grasslands, on surface temperature. We developed a new energy balance method that extracts the biophysical responses to environmental conditions, to predict how structural changes in albedo, surface roughness and canopy conductance following LCC will alter surface temperature. This method allows us not only to explain the observed differences in surface temperature between two non-adjacent study sites with different environmental conditions, but also to separate the contribution of biophysical and non-biophysical properties to surface temperature. Our results suggest that changes in biophysical properties due to shrub encroachment and tree mortality in the Southwestern US (independent of changes in other environmental properties) can potentially lead to an increase in midday surface temperature (11AM to 2PM) of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, comparable to changes in surface temperature following deforestation. Although the average surface temperature increase in response to both shrub encroachment and tree mortality is similar, the biophysical properties driving the temperature change are different in each scenario. Change in aerodynamic conductance following tree mortality is the largest contributor to heating, while reduced albedo and canopy conductance drive the increase in surface temperature following shrub encroachment. Finally, we also show how this increase in daytime surface temperature could be further intensified with future climate, especially with the expected reduction in soil water availability in the Southwest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Raccoon densities across four land cover types in the southeastern United States

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are the primary reservoir for rabies virus in eastern North America. Management of rabies in raccoons is achieved primarily with the use of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) and effective ORV bait densities are determined in part by the densities of raccoons. Decisions regarding ORV bait densities, however, are limited by an incomplete understanding of raccoon densities across the spectrum of landscapes they occupy. We carried out a mark-recapture study of raccoons on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA, from 2017–2019, to develop sex- and landscape-specific raccoon density estimates across 4 rural land cover types in the southeastern United States: bottomland hardwood, riparian forest, isolated wetland, and upland pine (Pinus spp.). We captured 404 unique raccoons 773 times over the 3-year trapping period. Estimated densities were 5.44 ± 0.37 (SE) animals/km 2 in bottomland hardwood forest, 2.62 ± 0.32 animals/km 2 in riparian forest, 2.19 ± 0.29 animals/km 2 in isolated wetlands, and 2.14 ± 0.23 animals/km 2 in upland pine. Densities were significantly higher in bottomland hardwood than all other land cover types, whereas densities among the remaining cover types were similar. These patterns are likely the result of landscape fragmentation and configuration, with riparian forests typically embedded in a matrix of less suitable cover types, leading to low densities despite presumably high resource availability. There were higher densities of males than females in every cover type except upland pine, where the sex ratio was balanced. Densities on our site were low compared to other rural areas, which likely results from the lack of human influence in terms of agriculture or development. The financial cost of baiting for ORV distribution may be reduced by considering the comparatively low densities of raccoons in these rural landscapes in the southeastern United States.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distinct roles of land cover in regulating spatial variabilities of temperature responses to radiative effects of aerosols and clouds

Surface temperature responses to radiative perturbations due to aerosols and clouds are complicated by the land surface properties. To disentangle these complexities, this study, from a terrestrial surface energy budget perspective, isolates the underlying biophysical processes from the instantaneous radiative effects of aerosols and clouds on surface temperature using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1. It is found that in comparison with the global heterogeneous distributions of instantaneous radiative perturbations at the surface induced by aerosols and clouds, the spatial variations of the corresponding surface temperature responses to aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) during the daytime and cloud radiative effects (CRE) during the nighttime are amplified. It is because of the consistent global distribution of the local surface climate sensitivity (a function of land cover properties such as surface roughness and Bowen ratio) with those of daytime DRE and nighttime CRE. By applying identical anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions over eight major past, present and projected future anthropogenic aerosol emitting regions (i.e. Brazil, China, East Africa, India, Indonesia, South Africa, United States and Western Europe), surface temperature responses to aerosol radiative cooling in the daytime and cloud radiative warming in the nighttime over these regions positively regulated by local surface climate sensitivities are prominent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biophysical Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Subgrid Temperature in CMIP6 Models

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗