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DOE OSTI2024

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Chisholm, Paul J. (ORCID:0000000238784707)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reducing the risks of wildfires

Anyone who has lived in New Mexico for at least a year realizes that the Land of Enchantment has six seasons. In addition to the four seasons everyone else has, we have a wildfire season, which typically comes during late spring and early summer. Wildfires sometimes even last through the monsoon season, when thunderstorms are lighter than usual. Wildfires, it seems, are inevitable in Los Alamos and the surrounding communities that make up part of northern New Mexico. In recent history, the 2000 Cerro Grande Fire destroyed 150,000 acres (including 7,500 acres of Laboratory property) and 235 Los Alamos homes. In 2011, the Las Conchas Fire burned more than 156,000 acres and threatened Los Alamos and the Lab. To minimize the chances of wildfires and to strengthen defenses against wildfires, the Laboratory every year carries out various fire-mitigation strategies throughout its 42 square miles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Systemic Drivers of Electric-Grid-Caused Catastrophic Wildfires: Implications for Resilience in the United States

Wildfires are projected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change, and the electric grid is both a cause of wildfires and is vulnerable to wildfires. Equipment from the electric grid accounts for 10% of fires burned in California and 3% of fires nationally. Recent catastrophic wildfires, such as the Lahaina Fire, Camp Fire, Marshall Fire, and Smokehouse Creek fires, were all started by electrical equipment and show how devastating these events can be because they threaten lives and structures. Vegetation structure, weather and winds, climate and vegetation response, land use, and human activities all impact the likelihood of severe wildfires. We explore the relationship between the built environment, electric grid infrastructure specifically, and its role in causing catastrophic wildfires to find lessons learned for increasing resilience. Electric grid utility companies currently employ multiple methods to mitigate fire, including (1) early detection, (2) grid hardening, (3) vegetation management, and (4) pre-emptive shutoffs. Utility companies need to consider the conditions for wildfire and the impact that each mitigation strategy has on drivers of wildfire behavior, as a single solution will not be adequate. Utility companies need to work with stakeholders to develop a holistic strategy to reduce ignition likelihood and spread likelihood to reduce catastrophic wildfires and improve resiliency.

Eagleston, Holly (ORCID:0000000178175116)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Major Revisions in Arthropod Phylogeny Through Improved Supermatrix, With Support for Two Possible Waves of Land Invasion by Chelicerates

Deep phylogeny involving arthropod lineages is difficult to recover because the erosion of phylogenetic signals over time leads to unreliable multiple sequence alignment (MSA) and subsequent phylogenetic reconstruction. One way to alleviate the problem is to assemble a large number of gene sequences to compensate for the weakness in each individual gene. Such an approach has led to many robustly supported but contradictory phylogenies. A close examination shows that the supermatrix approach often suffers from two shortcomings. The first is that MSA is rarely checked for reliability and, as will be illustrated, can be poor. The second is that, to alleviate the problem of homoplasy at the third codon position of protein-coding genes due to convergent evolution of nucleotide frequencies, phylogeneticists may remove or degenerate the third codon position but may do it improperly and introduce new biases. We performed extensive reanalysis of one of such “big data” sets to highlight these two problems, and demonstrated the power and benefits of correcting or alleviating these problems. Our results support a new group with Xiphosura and Arachnopulmonata (Tetrapulmonata + Scorpiones) as sister taxa. This favors a new hypothesis in which the ancestor of Xiphosura and the extinct Eurypterida (sea scorpions, of which many later forms lived in brackish or freshwater) returned to the sea after the initial chelicerate invasion of land. Our phylogeny is supported even with the original data but processed with a new “principled” codon degeneration. We also show that removing the 1673 codon sites with both AGN and UCN codons (encoding serine) in our alignment can partially reconcile discrepancies between nucleotide-based and AA-based tree, partly because two sequences, one with AGN and the other with UCN, would be identical at the amino acid level but quite different at the nucleotide level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel analysis between Physcomitrium patens and Mortierellaceae endophytes explores potential long‐standing interaction among land plants and fungi

SUMMARY The model moss species Physcomitrium patens has long been used for studying divergence of land plants spanning from bryophytes to angiosperms. In addition to its phylogenetic relationships, the limited number of differential tissues, and comparable morphology to the earliest embryophytes provide a system to represent basic plant architecture. Based on plant–fungal interactions today, it is hypothesized these kingdoms have a long‐standing relationship, predating plant terrestrialization. Mortierellaceae have origins diverging from other land fungi paralleling bryophyte divergence, are related to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi but are free‐living, observed to interact with plants, and can be found in moss microbiomes globally. Due to their parallel origins, we assess here how two Mortierellaceae species, Linnemannia elongata and Benniella erionia , interact with P. patens in coculture. We also assess how Mollicute ‐related or Burkholderia ‐related endobacterial symbionts (MRE or BRE) of these fungi impact plant response. Coculture interactions are investigated through high‐throughput phenomics, microscopy, RNA‐sequencing, differential expression profiling, gene ontology enrichment, and comparisons among 99 other P. patens transcriptomic studies. Here we present new high‐throughput approaches for measuring P. patens growth, identify novel expression of over 800 genes that are not expressed on traditional agar media, identify subtle interactions between P. patens and Mortierellaceae, and observe changes to plant–fungal interactions dependent on whether MRE or BRE are present. Our study provides insights into how plants and fungal partners may have interacted based on their communications observed today as well as identifying L. elongata and B. erionia as modern fungal endophytes with P. patens .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Variations in the Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over Indian Monsoon Zone

Here, this study examines cloud and precipitation properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Indian monsoon zone using 6 years of high-resolution satellite-based tracking data. MCSs exhibit strong regional and seasonal variations, peaking during the summer monsoon (June–September). Concentrated along a southeast-northwest band of the monsoon trough, MCS contribute 40%–70% of total precipitation and predominantly move westward at an average speed of 6.3 m s -1 . Long-lived MCSs (> 40 hr), although 10 times less frequent than short-lived MCSs (5–20 hr), produce 2–3 times more rainfall. Longer MCS lifespans and higher rainfall are associated with stronger deep-layer wind shear and enhanced lower free-tropospheric moisture at initiation. Land and ocean MCSs exhibit distinct diurnal cycles. Most land-based MCSs initiate around 16 LT and mature at 18 LT, whereas Bay of Bengal (BoB) MCSs initiate between 04 and 06 LT and peak by 14 LT. Convective precipitations from MCSs significantly surpasses that from non-MCSs systems, emphasizing their critical role in intense monsoon rainfall. Short- and long-lived MCSs showed distinct lifecycle evolution. Long-lived MCSs over the BoB show 37% larger cold-cloud shields, 44% larger precipitation feature areas, and 33% higher rain rates than their land counterparts, yielding 67% more total rainfall. These BoB MCSs also grow faster and experience more frequent cloud mergers early in their lifecycle. These findings offer critical insights into monsoonal MCSs lifecycle evolution, providing observational constraints for improving model simulations of monsoonal convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temporal dynamics of free‐living nitrogen fixation in the switchgrass rhizosphere

Abstract Free‐living nitrogen fixation (FLNF) represents an important terrestrial N source and is gaining interest for its potential to contribute plant available N to bioenergy cropping systems. Switchgrass, a cellulosic bioenergy crop, may be particularly reliant on FLNF when grown on low N systems, like marginal lands. However, the potential contributions of FLNF to switchgrass as well as the controls on this process are not well understood. In this study, we evaluated drivers of FLNF rates and N‐fixing microbial (diazotrophic) community composition in field‐grown switchgrass systems over two growing seasons with high temporal sampling. We found that climate variables are strong drivers of FLNF rates in switchgrass systems, compared to other environmental and biological factors including soil nutrients and diazotrophic community composition. Increased soil moisture availability generally promoted FLNF rates, but extreme rainfall events were detrimental. These climate‐related responses suggest a potential for loss of FLNF‐derived N contributions under projected climate shifts. We found a significant, but weak correlation between diazotrophic community composition and FLNF rates. We also observed a significant shift in the diazotrophic community composition between 2017 and 2018 and similarly measured a significant difference in FLNF rates between growing seasons. Lastly, we found that seasonal FLNF N contributions, based on measurement with high temporal resolution, has the potential to meet up to 80% of switchgrass N demands suggesting that FLNF measurements extrapolated from fewer time points or locations may underestimate these potential N contributions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Biological nitrogen fixation across major biomes in Latin America: Patterns and global change effects

We report biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) supports terrestrial primary productivity and plays key roles in mediating human-induced changes in global nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling. However, there are still critical uncertainties in our understanding of the amount of BNF occurring across terrestrial ecosystems, and of how terrestrial BNF will respond to global change. We synthesized BNF data from Latin America, a region reported to sustain some of the highest BNF rates on Earth, but that is underrepresented in previous data syntheses. We used meta-analysis and modeling approaches to estimate BNF rates across Latin America's major biomes and to evaluate the potential effects of increased N deposition and land-use change on these rates. Unmanaged tropical and subtropical moist forests sustained observed and predicted total BNF rates of 10 ± 1 and 14 ± 1 kg N ha -1 y -1 , respectively, supporting the hypothesis that these forests sustain lower BNF rates than previously thought. Free-living BNF accounted for two-thirds of the total BNF in these forests. Despite an average 30% reduction of free-living BNF in response to experimental N-addition, our results suggest free-living BNF rate responses to current and projected N deposition across tropical and subtropical moist forests are small. In contrast, the conversion of unmanaged ecosystems to crop and pasture lands increased BNF rates across all terrestrial biomes, mostly in savannas, grasslands, and dry forests, increasing BNF rates 2-fold. The information obtained here provides a more comprehensive understanding of BNF patterns for Latin America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a Combined Raffinate Waste Stream for Mo-99 Production

Niowave, Inc., based in Lansing, Michigan, intends to produce Mo-99 from the fission of low enriched uranium (LEU) targets. In FY20, SRNL was tasked to provide technical assistance in identifying the primary waste raffinate present in Niowave’s commercial scale system and evaluating methods for disposal. Due to limited information on Niowave’s complete flowsheet and isotope recovery plans, a combined raffinate stream including the entire radionuclide inventory from the irradiated fuel was used for this evaluation. Results of the evaluation indicated the majority of the waste generated can be expected to be Class A; however radioisotopes such as Pu-239, Cs-137, Sr-90, and some of the shorter lived (< 5 year half-life) may challenge Niowave’s ability to meet the waste acceptance criteria for land burial. With appropriate waste management strategies, it is probable that Niowave’s waste could meet Class C requirements for all constituents, with the possible exception of Pu-239. More detailed information of Niowave’s processes are needed to form a more accurate understanding required to execute and effective, economic, and feasible waste management strategy.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Land management explains major trends in forest structure and composition over the last millennium in California’s Klamath Mountains

Significance We provide the first assessment of aboveground live tree biomass in a mixed conifer forest over the late Holocene. The biomass record, coupled with local Native oral history and fire scar records, shows that Native burning practices, along with a natural lightning-based fire regime, promoted long-term stability of the forest structure and composition for at least 1 millennium in a California forest. This record demonstrates that climate alone cannot account for observed forest conditions. Instead, forests were also shaped by a regime of frequent fire, including intentional ignitions by Native people. This work suggests a large-scale intervention could be required to achieve the historical conditions that supported forest resiliency and reflected Indigenous influence.

Knight, Clarke A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Associations between cumulative environmental quality and ten selected birth defects in Texas

Abstract Background Causes of most birth defects are largely unknown. Genetics, maternal factors (e.g., age, smoking) and environmental exposures have all been linked to some birth defects, including neural tube, oral cleft, limb reduction, and gastroschisis; however, the contribution of cumulative exposures across several environmental domains in association with these defects is not well understood. Methods The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) and its domains (air, water, land, sociodemographic, built) were used to estimate county‐level cumulative environmental exposures from 2006–2010 and matched to birth defects identified from Texas Birth Defects Registry and live birth records from births in years 2007–2010 ( N = 1,610,709). Poisson regression models estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between 10 birth defects and the EQI. Results We observed some positive associations between worst environmental quality and neural tube, anencephaly, spina bifida, oral cleft, cleft palate, cleft lip with and without cleft palate, and gastroschisis [PR range: 1.12–1.55], but near null associations with limb reduction defects. Among domain specific results, we observed the strongest positive associations with the sociodemographic domain across birth defects but varied positive associations among the air and water domains, and negative or null associations with the land and built domains. Overall, few exposure‐response patterns were evident. Conclusions Our results highlight the complexities of cumulative, simultaneous environmental exposures in the prevalence rates of 10 selected birth defects. We were able to explore the impact of overall and domain specific environmental quality on birth defects and identify potential domain specific drivers of these associations.

Krajewski, Alison K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

DOE OSTI2024

BSEC VPRM 10m Hourly Biogenic Fluxes in Baltimore (2021)

Model outputs from the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM: version from Horne et al. in prep). Model remote sensing inputs come from Sential 2-derived EVI and LSWI. Model meteorological inputs for two-meter air temperature and shortwave incoming come from the BSEC WRF 2021 Control Run (Foust, W. 2023). Plant functional Types (PFTs) are spatially classified using the Chesapeake Bay Program 2018 land use land cover product. The final biogenic flux (µmol CO2 m^-2 s^-1) outputs of NEE, RESP, and GEE are a weighted average based on the portion of PFTs within the cell. Individual PFT outputs are saved inside PFT directories (e.g., Crops, Grass, etc.) inside the specific month directory. Model outputs are denoted as a negative flux into the land system (i.e., photosynthesis) and a positive flux as a net release into the overlying atmosphere. Respiration (RESP) fluxes are positive and combine heterotrophic (only soil) and autotrophic sources. Gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) is a negative flux driven by only photosynthetic activity from vegetation, and the Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is the sum of the two (i.e., NEE=RESP+GEE). Data Characteristics Spatial Resolution: 10m Temporal Resolution: Hourly File Format: VPRM_ _BSEC. .tif (Hour is in UTC) For more information on the model results, please email Jason Horne (jph6488@psu.edu). References: Foust, W. (2023). BSEC WRF 2021 Control Run Output (v0.1.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://data.msdlive.org/records/m0e6m-vvq17

Baltimore↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extreme heat vulnerability of manufactured housing in arid urban environments

This article explores the role of land cover in relation to housing type and tenure in shaping exposure to extreme urban heat, focusing on residents of mobile and manufactured housing (MH). We hypothesize that MH residents will experience greater exposure to extreme heat than those living in other housing types due to lower levels of proximate vegetation. This hypothesis is based on the unique property relations and tenure regimes that characterize MH, which may disincentivize investments in planting and maintaining trees and vegetation in arid environments. To test this hypothesis, we compare the amount of vegetation on properties across housing types, within-type tenure arrangements and between three urbanized areas in Arizona with different levels of exposure to extreme heat. To conduct this comparison, we combine multispectral land cover data for 1.7 million parcels with tax assessor data and building footprints to measure land cover at a high resolution. We find that MH units have significantly less vegetation than single-family residential properties, and that MH units in MH parks have less vegetation than those on individual lots. We conclude that municipalities should promote (e.g. through incentives or other policy interventions) the planting of more vegetation around MH units where there is a risk of extreme heat exposure. Future research can expand this analysis with a closer examination of how municipal ordinances and policies affect land cover by housing type and tenure.

heat↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗