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At least 37 records · Page 2

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management

Time Matters: A Survival Analysis of Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Utilization

The rapid adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) places significant demands on public charging infrastructure, making it critical to understand and optimize charger utilization. This study provides one of the most comprehensive analyses of charging behavior to date by applying a survival analysis to a dataset of nearly 16 million level 2 (L2) and direct current (DC) fast charger sessions across the United States from 2017 to 2022. Using Kaplan-Meier curves and log rank tests, our analysis reveals statistically significant and distinct duration patterns influenced by charger type, time of day, and day of the week. We find that L2 charging sessions exhibit high variability tied to venue type, whereas DC sessions are more uniform, typically lasting 30-45 min. This study introduces the operational efficiency score (OES), a metric for standardizing the performance evaluation of charging stations. Our findings offer actionable insights for optimizing charger deployment, developing dynamic pricing strategies to reduce vehicle dwell time, and improving load management for grid operators, ultimately enhancing the efficiency and availability of public charging infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

A GPU-based compressible combustion solver for applications exhibiting disparate space and time scales

High-speed chemically active flows pose significant computational challenges due to their disparate space and time scales, with stiff chemistry often dominating simulation time. While modern scientific computing programs achieve exascale performance by leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs), existing GPU-based compressible combustion solvers face critical limitations in memory management, load balancing, and handling the highly localized nature of chemical reactions. To this end, we present a high-performance compressible reacting flow solver built on the AMReX framework and optimized for multi-GPU settings. Here, our approach addresses three GPU performance bottlenecks: memory access patterns through column-major storage optimization, computational workload variability via a bulk-sparse integration strategy for chemical kinetics, and multi-GPU load distribution for adaptive mesh refinement applications. The solver adapts existing matrix-based chemical kinetics formulations to multi-grid contexts. Using representative combustion applications, including 2D and 3D detonations and a 3D jet-in-crossflow configuration, we demonstrate 1.4–5× performance improvements over initial implementations on an in-house cluster of NVIDIA H100 GPUs, and near-ideal weak scaling on the Frontier supercomputer (Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility) with up to 1024 AMD Instinct MI250X GPUs. Roofline analysis reveals substantial improvements in arithmetic intensity for both convection (∼ 10 ×) and chemistry (∼ 4 ×) routines, confirming efficient utilization of GPU memory bandwidth and computational resources.

42 ENGINEERING

Examples of State and Utility Actions on Proactive Planning and Investments

As states across the U.S. confront rising electricity demand, clean energy deployment, grid modernization imperatives, and the integration of large new loads, some regulators and utilities are shifting away from reactive, “just-in-time” investment approaches toward more proactive planning and investment frameworks. This report compiles examples of jurisdictional and utility actions that reshape planning processes, cost recovery mechanisms, and performance oversight to anticipate—rather than simply respond to—future grid needs. Several themes emerge from state actions examined in this report. First, legislatures and commissions are increasingly directing utilities to proactively upgrade their distribution and transmission systems, reflecting a shift toward a forward-looking system that aligns planning with state policy goals. Second, states are establishing long-term, iterative planning frameworks that often feature multi-year horizons, biannual or annual compliance reporting, structured opportunities for stakeholder engagement, and emphasis on collaboration among utilities, regulators, and stakeholders. Third, states are actively investigating innovative cost recovery mechanisms designed to support accelerated electrification and grid modernization, while balancing consumer advocates’ concerns regarding the ratepayer financial risks of premature investments. Fourth, performance metrics and reporting requirements are being developed to ensure transparency and accountability for proactive investments. Fifth, methodological improvements in planning—such as aligning load forecasting assumptions, incorporating sensitivities, and considering load management potential across building, vehicles, storage, and demand response—are recurring areas of stakeholder focus across jurisdictions. Overall, these developments signify a growing recognition among state regulators, utilities, and stakeholders that proactive planning—supported by clear definitions, consistent and transparent methodologies, robust performance metrics, and innovative cost recovery mechanisms—is a tool that can be used to address the scale and urgency of contemporary grid needs.

electricity market

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

EVs@Scale: NextGen Profiles EVSE Characterization 2025

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium, the Next-Generation Profiles (NextGen Profiles [NGP]) project presents analysis and results from the characterization of high-power conductive and wireless charging infrastructure. High Power Charging equipment is capable of recharging electric vehicle traction batteries at power levels of 200KW and above. Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE) characterization involves testing over a wide range of DC charging currents and voltages during nominal and off-nominal conditions. This testing allows for a better understanding of the impact that high-power charging will have on the electric grid. A common set of standard test plans, procedures, and data requirements were applied to the characterization in this document with minor updates and improvements. This report covers all conductive characterization activities performed between October 2024 and September 2025 on the Delta Electronics 350KW Electric Vehicle Charging System, consisting of power cabinet model EIDN-U350KTA01 and dispenser model EIDD-U350SSUUAEG-350.Key Findings include: Output regulation, Efficiency and power factor, Load management, Grid Resilience, Smart Charge Management (SCM) performance, Thermal control system performance, Multi-port simultaneous charging performance, and Selected performance comparisons with other EVSEs characterized in the NextGen Profiles project. Hot and cold temperature testing was not conducted on the Delta 350KW due to laboratory limitations. Future research could include continued testing the Delta hardware under off-nominal temperature conditions including multi-port/multi-session simultaneous charge testing, in addition to collecting data on other high-power conductive chargers to augment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Occupant-Centric Demand Response for Thermostatically-Controlled Home Loads

Efficiently managing energy usage to balance supply and demand on the electric grid is crucial, especially with the widespread deployment of distributed variable renewable electricity generation. This paper introduces two duty-cycle control methods for heating systems, adjusting thermostat setpoints to limit and shift electricity demand. The control approaches employ innovative techniques, such as adaptive duty cycling, to prioritize household thermal comfort while reducing peak demand. These control methods can respond to signals from the electric grid, including demand targets and time-of-use tariffs, and were tested physically on an electric furnace and heat pump in a test home during winter conditions in 2021 and 2022. The results are given as average demand reductions and energy use impacts with respect to the average indoor-outdoor temperature difference during the control period. For heat pumps, demand limiting control reduced power by 18.5% and 23.3% for indoor-outdoor temperature differences of 30°F and 40°F. Preheating-based demand shifting achieved reductions of 34.8% and 33.2% for the same temperature differences. Electric furnace tests showed demand reductions of 33.8% and 25.3% for demand limiting, and 56.1% and 45.7% for preheating-based demand shifting. These findings highlight the potential for innovative control methods to enhance grid efficiency and reduce energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Coupled management of electric vehicle workplace charging and office building loads

Significant building energy savings are realized through heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) setpoint adjustment and daylighting control. Workplace charging (WPC) enables colocation of electric vehicles (EVs) with office building loads. We proposed managing energy use of workplace EV charging and the office building and determined the number of EVs that building energy savings can facilitate charging. We simulated building energy savings in typical medium offices in Chicago IL, Baltimore MD, and Houston TX, spanning three US climate regions. Considering the EV hosting capacity of the saved building energy and travel patterns of roundtrip commuting, we minimized EV charging costs under time-of-use electricity pricing. Managed WPC can reduce charging electricity bills compared to first-come, first-served charging. The ratio of EVs to chargers, the coincident period of commuters’ dwell time and lower electricity prices, and the number of EVs in the office impacted the economic benefits achieved through charging management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Adapting Grid Criticality for Data Centers

This presentation explores the evolving definition of “critical load” in the electric grid, emphasizing the growing importance of digital infrastructure—particularly data centers—in grid resilience, restoration, and modernization. As utilities increasingly rely on AI-driven analytics and software-defined control systems, data centers have shifted from passive electricity consumers to essential computational hubs that enable National Critical Functions (NCFs) and support real-time grid operations. The deck examines the scale and impact of digital loads, the need for grid modernization to manage rapid load growth, and the diverse computing paradigms required for AI deployment. It introduces a tiered taxonomy for classifying critical loads, highlights operational dependencies between the grid and digital infrastructure, and discusses policy implications for integrating data centers into emergency planning and restoration protocols. Through case studies and practical frameworks, the presentation provides actionable insights for utilities, regulators, and planners navigating the digital transformation of the power sector.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY

A Simulation and Optimization Framework for Managing Wind-Driven Loading on PV Systems

As PV modules continue to trend toward larger, thinner, and more flexible forms they grow more susceptible to damage from dynamic wind loading. As a result, understanding the impact of wind on PV systems, particularly when mounted on solar-tracking hardware, and identifying robust, stable array layouts and stow strategies is becoming increasingly important for the PV community. We are developing an open-source software package, PVade (PV aerodynamic design engineering), to simulate the cascading fluid-structure interaction that occurs within solar-tracking arrays to enable researchers to test hardware, layout, and tracker control changes, leading to enhanced stability and a reduction in wind-driven damage. We will give an overview of the PVade software and present the latest outcomes from our ongoing validation campaign in which we compare statistical structural responses with field data. From there, we will present simulated results from a larger, multi-row array and highlight the effect of varying tracker angles on stability as measured by both acceleration and deformation, focusing on the stability differences between positive and negative tilt angles.

fluid structure interaction

Energy Efficiency Analysis and Grid Service Results for Commercial Buildings using the VOLTRON IoT Platform

In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the Commercial Buildings Integration Program (CBI) within the Building Technologies Office (BTO), funded PNNL to conduct a field evaluation of the AIRCx and ILC using an Internet-of-Things (IoT) platform, VOLTTRON. The primary goal of the project is to show that software solutions deployed and delivered through an IoT-platform can identify energy efficiency opportunities and manage peak load (beyond the traditional demand response) in commercial buildings. There are also two secondary goals: 1) show that the energy efficiency solutions will result in identification of significant savings opportunities (10% to 30%) as well as energy cost reductions (10% to 15%) by managing the peak load in commercial buildings, and 2) show that an IoT-based software solution is more cost-effective compared to a manual process in meeting the Re-tuning/retro commissioning (RCx) mandates and there is a pathway for broader adoption of this approach. This report provides AIRCx and ILC results for two building located in District of Columbia managed by the energy service provider Intellimation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Categorizing Plug Load Solutions by Ease of Implementation

Plug loads account for a growing share of U.S. commercial building electricity use, projected to rise from 16% today to 21% by 2050. Managing these loads presents a substantial opportunity for reducing energy costs while providing additional operational benefits, such as improved asset management and occupant comfort. Despite their potential, plug loads are numerous, diverse, and highly occupant-dependent, making control challenging. This publication organizes plug load control strategies by level of effort, offering building owners and operators a staged approach to implement interventions ranging from smart outlets and automatic receptacle controls to behavioral strategies. By following these actionable steps, building stakeholders can reduce energy consumption, lower utility bills, and realize broader operational advantages.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Factors Influencing Grid-connected Heat Pump Water Heater Performance in the Southeast U.S.

Grid-connected heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can shift electrical load while minimizing impacts to hot water availability for occupants. This capability provides a flexible grid resource to utilities seeking to manage peak loads Such load control also can feasibly improve renewable utilization within the utility electric production mix, for instance using off-peak generation during periods with high renewable energy generation. It also offers lower electric bills to customers through increased energy efficiency of HPWH and cuts greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, the Southeast U.S. due to its high penetration of electric water heating presents a promising opportunity for grid-connected HPWHs. This paper builds upon the results of an extensive HPWH load shifting field study conducted in 51 occupied homes in Florida using EcoPort technology (Butzbaugh et al, 2022). In 2022, only an initial evaluation was available. Here, long term load results are available as well as examination of various control strategies and influences. Analysis is conducted for HPWH energy use and load shifting performance based on home occupancy (i.e., low and high) and water heater location (i.e., conditioned and unconditioned) across different temperature profiles. An unexpected outcome of this analysis was the poor performance of HPWHs located in conditioned spaces, possibly because of inadequate air volume from improper installation. We did find higher demand reductions from 2-hour load ups and slightly improved for critical peak signals in the afternoon control periods. As expected, higher occupancy households showed great load reductions.

Fenaughty, Karen

Data Analytics and Visualization of Energy Systems for Critical Infrastructure Insights

Modernization of energy systems including transportation facilities provides opportunities for increased efficiency, expansion of commerce and meeting industry and federal goals. A significant increase in electrical demand is projected to meet these needs, which concentrates at facilities such as airports. For example, Xcel Energy working with two airports in their service area recently published information projecting an up to fivefold increase in electricity demand in the next 25 years [1]. Concurrently, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently surveyed 30 commercial service airports identifying more than 300 outages of more than 5 minutes between 2015 and 2022 [2]. Power, reliability, and resilience planning becomes more important to safely maintain operations and the flow of commerce with fewer energy carriers providing necessary energy to safely move passengers and goods. NREL proposes to develop methodologies to allow owners, utilities, and federal agencies to dynamically analyze, forecast, and manage energy loads at airports, focused upon maintaining the flow of commerce in an efficient, sustainable, and resilient way. To address these energy challenges, a suite of technologies and methodologies can be leveraged to validate concepts, inform design, de-risk solutions and optimize energy management during deployment. These technologies include digitalization of energy systems, microgrid methodologies, and related energy technologies for building and vehicle loads. [1] Electrifying Airport Ecosystems - https://www.enterprisemobility.com/content/dam/enterpriseholdings/marketing/innovation-in-mobility/vehicle-innovation/airport-electrification-study-full-report-2024.pdf [2] Airport Infrastructure: Selected Airport's Efforts to Enhance Electrical Resilience https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105203.

critcal infrastructure

Studying Wind Loading on CSP Collectors to Improve Performance and Reliability

Electricity generation through Concentrating Solar-thermal Power (CSP) adds the advantage of thermal energy storage and heat production. CSP collector costs constitute nearly one-third of total plant costs. Managing wind loading, especially dynamic wind loading caused by the turbulent wind flow, is a significant design challenge. Traditional collector designs rely on wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations, which do not fully capture dynamic effects. Here, we provide an overview of NREL's activities on wind loading on CSP collectors, aiming to improve their reliability and cost-efficiency. We present insights from field measurements at operational parabolic trough and power-tower CSP plants. Over two years, we measured turbulent wind fields and resulting structural loads in a parabolic trough plant, revealing wind, turbulence, and collector field interactions. Similar measurements are ongoing at the Crescent Dunes heliostat field. These campaigns show how atmospheric turbulence, wind direction, and collector orientation affect dynamic wind loading. Upwind collector structures can generate turbulent structures, causing fluctuating loads at downstream collectors, impacting fatigue lifetime and optical efficiency. Preliminary results indicate that interior collectors experience higher turning moments than those at the edges, suggesting higher drive wear. At Crescent Dunes, we use instrumented heliostats at the field's edge and interior to study the translation of turbulent wind to dynamic structural loads. The campaign is still ongoing, and we will present first findings. Another focus of our work is tying the experimental wind loading findings to optical performance of the collectors, using simulation tools. For example, we derive torsional errors of the parabolic troughs - the angular offset from the sun position along a collector row. This error is impacted by wind-induced mirror deformations. Future work will focus on continuing the measurement efforts and combining them with computational fluid dynamic simulations. By providing detailed field measurements and validated models, our efforts aim to enhance understanding of wind loading on CSP collectors, improving their structural integrity and optical performance.

CSP

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus