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Spatially Refined Satellite Gravimetry Captures Human Signatures in Global Terrestrial Water Storage Trends

Human activities have directly altered the water cycle through water management, aquifer pumping, agricultural irrigation, and land use change. Although satellite gravimetry has transformed global hydrological research, its coarse resolution limits attribution of freshwater change to human activities at many management-relevant scales. Here we assessed global terrestrial water storage (TWS) trends from April 2002 to November 2025 using “stacked” regression of Level-1B intersatellite ranging data, which leverages temporal information and variability to dramatically improve effective spatial resolution relative to standard approaches. We combined this refined product with rigorous uncertainty analysis, autocorrelation-robust geostatistical methods, and literature assessment to evaluate TWS trend associations with land and water use, climate variability, and glacial mass loss. We identified TWS trend hotspots exhibiting significant spatial associations with anthropogenic 40 drivers, including groundwater and surface-water irrigation, rainfed agriculture, deforestation, and reservoir impoundment. Across these regions, cumulative TWS losses (3,122 Gt) substantially exceeded gains (2,432 Gt). Compared with traditional regression of monthly mascons, our approach yielded regional trend magnitudes that are on average 33% larger, revealing that global freshwater depletion, particularly from groundwater pumping, is considerably more acute than previously estimated. Multivariate regression models show that humans account for a significant share of the spatial variability in TWS trends on every non-polar continent except Australia. We detected localized TWS gains linked to rainfed agriculture, surface water irrigation, and reservoir filling that were unresolved in earlier gravimetric studies. The methodology provides a foundation for future gravity missions to independently track decadal freshwater change with unprecedented spatial fidelity.

groundwater

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This report documents the outcome of the assessment.

Steven J Gentz

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (~9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Steven J Gentz

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Gentz, Steven J

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices - Volume 2, Part 1

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Steven J Gentz

Insertion Loss and Noise-Temperature Contribution of High-Temperature Superconducting Bandpass Filters Centered at 2.3 and 8.45 GHz

Two superconducting Tl-Ca-Cu-Ba-O bandpass filters were fabricated for JPL by Superconductor Technologies Incorporated, Santa Barbara, California. The filters were designed to operate at 2.3 GHz (S-band) with a 0.5-dB bandwidth of 60 MHz and at 8.45 GHz (X-band) with a 0.5-dB bandwidth of 150 MHz. The structure selected for both filters incorporates half-wavelength thin-film resonators in a stripline configuration. The S-band filter uses an edge-coupled interdigital design and the X-band filter uses an end-coupled design. The insertion loss and the noise-temperature contribution were measured at 12 K for both filters.

J L Prater

Using Open Innovation in Reducing Risk to Crews

In the exploration of destinations outside of Earth's neighborhood, specifically Mars, scientific and engineering inquiries have occurred by two means; observations from satellites and observations by landed spacecraft. Satellite observations (Mariner, MRO, Mars Odyssey, provide global-scale spatial and temporal data while landed spacecraft (Viking, Mars Pathfinder, Spirit, Opportunity, Phoenix Mars Lander) investigate highly localized areas of the surface of the planet. In preparation for human exploration, extensive knowledge of the surface and atmospheric environments should be known before the first human leaves Earth. The primary goal of performing reconnaissance on Mars on a sub-global scale is to know as much as possible about the environment to which crews will be subjected. At the current rate of launching and landing probes to Mars, it will take a very long time to understand the surface and atmospheric conditions associated with the regions where prospective crews may land. Meanwhile electronics and electrical systems are rapidly getting smaller. One can argue that to acquire the knowledge of the region, one must take hundreds, maybe thousands of measurements simultaneously. One means to perform such a task is to deploy a swarm of sensors. Such a swarm would perform an in-situ assessment of the region. Imagine a close flyby mission to Mars for example, where mini- to micro-sensors are deposited into the atmosphere over half an orbit or more. The sensors, captured by the atmospheric drag and Martian gravity slowly descend buffeted about by Martian winds and weather until they settle on the surface a great time later (think of how long dust takes to settle). As they descend they communicate a vast array of data; temperature, chemistry, pressure, radiation dose, electric or magnetic properties from a region of the planet and an individual sensor need not measure the same quantity as its neighbors. Initially, they could move at the whim of the environment but later versions could have locomotion or propulsion mechanisms. Humans wouldn't need to decide where the sensors go, the sensors do that for themselves. This is a key strength of a sensor swarm. The intelligence relies on the group not on a decision maker on earth. Real time sensor inputs direct what the swarm considers most interesting to investigate resulting in emergent behavior. We issued a $20,000 challenge to the global innovators to provide solutions as to how such a swarm could be initialized and by what protocols and methodologies by which they operate. Over 400 innovators from 49 countries took a look at the problem, with three receiving partial awards for solutions.

Mel Ferebee

Summary of Research Report

Ten papers, published in various publications, on buckling, and the effects of imperfections on various structures are presented. These papers are: (1) Buckling mode localization in elastic plates due to misplacement in the stiffner location; (2) On vibrational imperfection sensitivity on Augusti's model structure in the vicinity of a non-linear static state; (3) Imperfection sensitivity due to elastic moduli in the Roorda Koiter frame; (4) Buckling mode localization in a multi-span periodic structure with a disorder in a single span; (5) Prediction of natural frequency and buckling load variability due to uncertainty in material properties by convex modeling; (6) Derivation of multi-dimensional ellipsoidal convex model for experimental data; (7) Passive control of buckling deformation via Anderson localization phenomenon; (8)Effect of the thickness and initial im perfection on buckling on composite cylindrical shells: asymptotic analysis and numerical results by BOSOR4 and PANDA2; (9) Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis; (10) Buckling of structures with uncertain imperfections - Personal perspective.

Isaac Elishakoff

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2

Kalman Filtering and RTS Smoothing for Arc-Jet Sample Edge Tracking

Accurate and temporally consistent measurements of test-article recession are required to characterize material response during arc-jet ablation experiments. However, image-based boundary measurements are often affected by segmentation noise, brightness variations, and frame-to-frame variability. This work extends arcjetCV [1] with filtering methods for tracking the evolving boundaries of hemispherical and ISO-Q test articles. Two boundary-tracking approaches based on Kalman filtering [2] were implemented. The first applies a point-wise Kalman filter followed by a Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother [3] to individual boundary-point locations. The second applies the same filtering and smoothing framework to a reduced set of geometry-dependent shape parameters. The point-wise method reduces local frame-to-frame fluctuations while preserving spatial details along the detected boundary. The shape-parameter method provides a compact and geometrically constrained estimate of the sample contour. Figure 1 illustrates the two approaches for a hemispherical test article. Both methods improve temporal consistency and support more robust estimation of surface recession from arc-jet imagery. The two filtering approaches provide complementary representations of boundary evolution and improve the reliability of image-based recession measurements during arc-jet experiments.

recession measurement

DS-2 Mars Microprobe Battery

In January of 1999 the NM DS-2 Mars microprobe will be launched to impact on Mars in December. The technical objectives of the missions are to demonstrate: key technologies, a passive atmospheric entry, highly integrated microelectronics which can withstand both low temperatures and high decelerations, and the capability to conduct in-situ, surface and subsurface science data acquisition. The scientific objectives are to determine if ice is present below the Martian surface, measure the local atmospheric pressure, characterize the thermal properties of the martian subsurface soil, and to estimate the vertical temperature gradient of the Martian soil. The battery requirements are 2-4 cell batteries, with voltage of 6-14 volts, capacity of 550 mAh at 80C, and 2Ah at 25C, shelf life of 2.5 years, an operating temperature of 60C and below, and the ability to withstand shock impact of 80,000 g's. The technical challenges and the approach is reviewed. The Li-SOCL2 system is reviewed, and graphs showing the current and voltage is displayed, along with the voltage over discharge time. The problems encountered during the testing were: (1) impact sensitivity, (2) cracking of the seals, and (3) delay in voltage. A new design resulted in no problems in the impact testing phase. The corrective actions for the seal problems involved: (1) pre weld fill tube, (2) an improved heat sink during case to cover weld and (3) change the seal dimensions to reduce stress. To correct the voltage delay problem the solutions involved: (1) drying the electrodes to reduce contamination by water, (2) assemblage of the cells within a week of electrode manufacture, (3) ensure electrolyte purity, and (4) provide second depassivation pulse after landing. The conclusions on further testing were that the battery can: (1) withstand anticipated shock of up to 80,000 g, (2) meet the discharge profile post shock at Mars temperatures, (3) meet the required self discharge rate and (4) meet environmental requirements.

Frank, H.

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics

The dynamical origins of the dark comets and a proposed evolutionary track

So-called ‘dark comets’ are small, morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) that exhibit nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiative effects. These objects exhibit short rotational periods (minutes to hours), where measured. We find that the strengths required to prevent catastrophic disintegration are consistent with those measured in cometary nuclei and expected in rubble pile objects. We hypothesize that these dark comets are the end result of a rotational fragmentation cascade, which is consistent with their measured physical properties. We calculate the predicted size-frequency distribution for objects evolving under this model. Using dynamical simulations, we further demonstrate that the majority of these bodies originated from the 𝜈6 resonance, implying the existence of volatiles in the current inner main belt. Moreover, one of the dark comets, (523599) 2003 RM, likely originated from the outer main belt, although a JFC origin is also plausible. These results provide strong evidence that volatiles from a reservoir in the inner main belt are present in the near-Earth environment.

Aster G Taylor

Electromagnetic Melt Processing: A Pathway to New Additive Manufacturing Technologies for Functional High-Performance Thermoplastics

In this study, we apply the electromagnetic (EM) melt processing of thermoplastics on an innovative EM field-driven powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (AM) concept for high-performance functional parts: Selective Microwave Melting/Sintering (SMM/SMS). This technique leverages the EM susceptibility of carbon nanotube-coated polymer micro-pellets to achieve rapid, localized heating and powder fusion. Thus, selective microwave melting (SMM) was used to fabricate multilayer specimens made of recycled polyphenylene sulfide (rPPS) and carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The resulting SMM specimens exhibited very good interlayer integrity, localized fusion at pellet boundaries, and tolerable residual porosity, indicating effective fusion and acceptable consolidation. CNT-rich interphases were retained after irradiation, generating anisotropic electrically active network pathways and enabling conductivity enhancement at low filler content. At only 1.0 wt% CNT, the specimens exhibited electrical conductivity approximately three orders of magnitude higher than neat rPPS. Dynamic mechanical analysis showed improved viscoelastic response relative to neat rPPS, while tensile testing confirmed that the SMM-processed specimens retained practical mechanical integrity despite localized voids. These results demonstrate that SMM can effectively consolidate EM susceptible thermoplastic powder beds while preserving their segregated conductive networks. This may become a scalable route for producing multifunctional thermoplastic parts with low filler loadings, tunable anisotropy, and structured materials and parts. Overall, the findings suggest that EM field-based AM can help overcome key limitations of conventional thermoplastic processing by enabling scalable, energy-efficient fabrication of nanostructured composites and expanding AM to a broader range of resins, including high-performance thermoplastics with customized functional properties.

Powder bed fusion