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Comments on the gamma-ray burst log N /greater than S/ log S point of Beurle et al

Statistical improbability is demonstrated for the Beurle et al (1981) determination of an isotropic cumulative burst rate of 7030 + 10,000 or - 6000/year, at a fluence of 8.47 x to the -9th/erg per sq cm, from their observation of two gamma-ray bursts. The difficulty identified is Beurle's assumption that the power law cumulative distribution function index equals one. Reconsideration of the Beurle observations is undertaken, and an alternative upper limit of the annual number of bursts at the fluence cited of less than 5400/year is proposed.

Jennings, M. C.↗

A deep x ray survey in the Lockman hole and the soft x ray log N - log S

The longest pointed observation (152 ksec) with the Rosat position sensitive proportional counter in the direction of the absolutely lowest neutral hydrogen column density is discussed. 26 shallower fields from the Rosat medium sensivity survey are analyzed. 1176 X-ray sources were detected in at least one Rosat energy band in these fields covering a total solid angle of 9.3 deg; 661 of these sources constitute a statistically complete sample detected in the hard band with 0.5 to 2 keV fluxes greater than 2.5 times 10 to the power of minus 15 erg/sq cm s. The faintest limiting flux of the survey is analyzed. Detailed simulations show that confusion effects and other selection biases are relatively small and can be corrected for in the sample. From an analysis in the Lockman field, a best fit slope of approximately 1.8 is found for the extrapolation of the differential X-ray counts below 2.5 times 10 to the power of minus 15 erg/sq cm s. On the basis of this analysis an upper limit of approximately 25% can be found for a truly diffuse background component in the Rosat hard band.

Hasinger, G.↗

Hindsight logging for model training

In modern Machine Learning, model training is an iterative, experimental process that can consume enormous computation resources and developer time. To aid in that process, experienced model developers log and visualize program variables during training runs. Exhaustive logging of all variables is infeasible, so developers are left to choose between slowing down training via extensive conservative logging, or letting training run fast via minimalist optimistic logging that may omit key information. As a compromise, optimistic logging can be accompanied by program checkpoints; this allows developers to add log statements post-hoc, and "replay" desired log statements from checkpoint---a process we refer to as hindsight logging. Unfortunately, hindsight logging raises tricky problems in data management and software engineering. Done poorly, hindsight logging can waste resources and generate technical debt embodied in multiple variants of training code. In this paper, we present methodologies for efficient and effective logging practices for model training, with a focus on techniques for hindsight logging. Our goal is for experienced model developers to learn and adopt these practices. To make this easier, we provide an open-source suite of tools for Fast Low-Overhead Recovery (flor) that embodies our design across three tasks: (i) efficient background logging in Python, (ii) adaptive periodic checkpointing, and (iii) an instrumentation library that codifies hindsight logging for efficient and automatic record-replay of model-training. Model developers can use each flor tool separately as they see fit, or they can use flor in hands-free mode, entrusting it to instrument their code end-to-end for efficient record-replay. Our solutions leverage techniques from physiological transaction logs and recovery in database systems. Evaluations on modern ML benchmarks demonstrate that flor can produce fast checkpointing with small user-specifiable overheads (e.g. 7%), and still provide hindsight log replay times orders of magnitude faster than restarting training from scratch.

Computer Science↗

Low-Cost Evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for Detection and Biophysical Characterization of Forest Logging in Amazonia (NCC5-481)

Major uncertainties exist regarding the rate and intensity of logging in tropical forests worldwide: these uncertainties severely limit economic, ecological, and biogeochemical analyses of these regions. Recent sawmill surveys in the Amazon region of Brazil show that the area logged is nearly equal to total area deforested annually, but conversion of survey data to forest area, forest structural damage, and biomass estimates requires multiple assumptions about logging practices. Remote sensing could provide an independent means to monitor logging activity and to estimate the biophysical consequences of this land use. Previous studies have demonstrated that the detection of logging in Amazon forests is difficult and no studies have developed either the quantitative physical basis or remote sensing approaches needed to estimate the effects of various logging regimes on forest structure. A major reason for these limitations has been a lack of sufficient, well-calibrated optical satellite data, which in turn, has impeded the development and use of physically-based, quantitative approaches for detection and structural characterization of forest logging regimes. We propose to use data from the EO-1 Hyperion imaging spectrometer to greatly increase our ability to estimate the presence and structural attributes of selective logging in the Amazon Basin. Our approach is based on four "biogeophysical indicators" not yet derived simultaneously from any satellite sensor: 1) green canopy leaf area index; 2) degree of shadowing; 3) presence of exposed soil and; 4) non-photosynthetic vegetation material. Airborne, field and modeling studies have shown that the optical reflectance continuum (400-2500 nm) contains sufficient information to derive estimates of each of these indicators. Our ongoing studies in the eastern Amazon basin also suggest that these four indicators are sensitive to logging intensity. Satellite-based estimates of these indicators should provide a means to quantify both the presence and degree of structural disturbance caused by various logging regimes. Our quantitative assessment of Hyperion hyperspectral and ALI multi-spectral data for the detection and structural characterization of selective logging in Amazonia will benefit from data collected through an ongoing project run by the Tropical Forest Foundation, within which we have developed a study of the canopy and landscape biophysics of conventional and reduced-impact logging. We will add to our base of forest structural information in concert with an EO-1 overpass. Using a photon transport model inversion technique that accounts for non-linear mixing of the four biogeophysical indicators, we will estimate these parameters across a gradient of selective logging intensity provided by conventional and reduced impact logging sites. We will also compare our physical ly-based approach to both conventional (e.g., NDVI) and novel (e.g., SWIR-channel) vegetation indices as well as to linear mixture modeling methods. We will cross-compare these approaches using Hyperion and ALI imagers to determine the strengths and limitations of these two sensors for applications of forest biophysics. This effort will yield the first physical ly-based, quantitative analysis of the detection and intensity of selective logging in Amazonia, comparing hyperspectral and improved multi-spectral approaches as well as inverse modeling, linear mixture modeling, and vegetation index techniques.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

Abstract. Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contrasting Patterns of Damage and Recovery in Logged Amazon Forests From Small Footprint LiDAR Data

Tropical forests ecosystems respond dynamically to climate variability and disturbances on time scales of minutes to millennia. To date, our knowledge of disturbance and recovery processes in tropical forests is derived almost exclusively from networks of forest inventory plots. These plots typically sample small areas (less than or equal to 1 ha) in conservation units that are protected from logging and fire. Amazon forests with frequent disturbances from human activity remain under-studied. Ongoing negotiations on REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus enhancing forest carbon stocks) have placed additional emphasis on identifying degraded forests and quantifying changing carbon stocks in both degraded and intact tropical forests. We evaluated patterns of forest disturbance and recovery at four -1000 ha sites in the Brazilian Amazon using small footprint LiDAR data and coincident field measurements. Large area coverage with airborne LiDAR data in 2011-2012 included logged and unmanaged areas in Cotriguacu (Mato Grosso), Fiona do Jamari (Rondonia), and Floresta Estadual do Antimary (Acre), and unmanaged forest within Reserva Ducke (Amazonas). Logging infrastructure (skid trails, log decks, and roads) was identified using LiDAR returns from understory vegetation and validated based on field data. At each logged site, canopy gaps from logging activity and LiDAR metrics of canopy heights were used to quantify differences in forest structure between logged and unlogged areas. Contrasting patterns of harvesting operations and canopy damages at the three logged sites reflect different levels of pre-harvest planning (i.e., informal logging compared to state or national logging concessions), harvest intensity, and site conditions. Finally, we used multi-temporal LiDAR data from two sites, Reserva Ducke (2009, 2012) and Antimary (2010, 2011), to evaluate gap phase dynamics in unmanaged forest areas. The rates and patterns of canopy gap formation at these sites illustrate potential issues for separating logging damages from natural forest disturbances over longer time scales. Multi-temporal airborne LiDAR data and coincident field measurements provide complementary perspectives on disturbance and recovery processes in intact and degraded Amazon forests. Compared to forest inventory plots, the large size of each individual site permitted analyses of landscape-scale processes that would require extremely high investments to study using traditional forest inventory methods.

Morton, D. C.↗

Long-Term Impacts of Selective Logging on Amazon Forest Dynamics from Multi-Temporal Airborne LiDAR

Forest degradation is common in tropical landscapes, but estimates of the extent and duration of degradation impacts are highly uncertain. In particular, selective logging is a form of forest degradation that alters canopy structure and function, with persistent ecological impacts following forest harvest. In this study, we employed airborne laser scanning in 2012 and 2014 to estimate three-dimensional changes in the forest canopy and understory structure and aboveground biomass following reduced-impact selective logging in a site in Eastern Amazon. Also, we developed a binary classification model to distinguish intact versus logged forests. We found that canopy gap frequency was significantly higher in logged versus intact forests even after 8 years (the time span of our study). In contrast, the understory of logged areas could not be distinguished from the understory of intact forests after 6–7 years of logging activities. Measuring new gap formation between LiDAR acquisitions in 2012 and 2014, we showed rates 2 to 7 times higher in logged areas compared to intact forests. New gaps were spatially clumped with 76 to 89% of new gaps within 5 m of prior logging damage. The biomass dynamics in areas logged between the two LiDAR acquisitions was clearly detected with an average estimated loss of -4.14 +/- 0.76 MgC/hay. In areas recovering from logging prior to the first acquisition, we estimated biomass gains close to zero. Together, our findings unravel the magnitude and duration of delayed impacts of selective logging in forest structural attributes, confirm the high potential of airborne LiDAR multitemporal data to characterize forest degradation in the tropics, and present a novel approach to forest classification using LiDAR data.

Pinage, Ekena Rangel↗

Feasibility of source-free DAS logging for next-generation borehole imaging

Characterizing and monitoring geologic formations around a borehole are crucial for energy and environmental applications. However, conventional wireline sonic logging usually cannot be used in high-temperature environments nor is the tool feasible for long-term monitoring. We introduce and evaluate the feasibility of a source-free distributed-acoustic-sensing (DAS) logging method based on borehole DAS ambient noise. Our new logging method provides a next-generation borehole imaging tool. The tool is source free because it uses ever-present ambient noises as sources and does not need a borehole sonic source that cannot be easily re-inserted into a borehole after well completion for time-lapse monitoring. The receivers of our source-free DAS logging tool are fiber optic cables cemented behind casing, enabling logging in harsh, high-temperature environments, and eliminating the receiver repeatability issue of conventional wireline sonic logging for time-lapse monitoring. We analyze a borehole DAS ambient noise dataset to obtain root-mean-squares (RMS) amplitudes and use these amplitudes to infer subsurface elastic properties. We find that the ambient noise RMS amplitudes correlate well with anomalies in conventional logging data. The source-free DAS logging tool can advance our ability to characterize and monitor subsurface geologic formations in an efficient and cost-effective manner, particularly in high-temperature environments such as geothermal reservoirs. Further validation of the source-free DAS logging method using other borehole DAS ambient noise data would enable the new logging tool for wider applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating Compressional Velocity and Bulk Density Logs in Marine Gas Hydrates Using Machine Learning

Compressional velocity (Vp) and bulk density (ρb) logs are essential for characterizing gas hydrates and near-seafloor sediments; however, it is sometimes difficult to acquire these logs due to poor borehole conditions, safety concerns, or cost-related issues. We present a machine learning approach to predict either compressional Vp or ρb logs with high accuracy and low error in near-seafloor sediments within water-saturated intervals, in intervals where hydrate fills fractures, and intervals where hydrate occupies the primary pore space. We use scientific-quality logging-while-drilling well logs, gamma ray, ρb, Vp, and resistivity to train the machine learning model to predict Vp or ρb logs. Of the six machine learning algorithms tested (multilinear regression, polynomial regression, polynomial regression with ridge regularization, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and multilayer perceptron), we find that the random forest and K nearest neighbors algorithms are best suited to predicting Vp and ρb logs based on coefficients of determination (R2) greater than 70% and mean absolute percentage errors less than 4%. Given the high accuracy and low error results for Vp and ρb prediction in both hydrate and water-saturated sediments, we argue that our model can be applied in most LWD wells to predict Vp or ρb logs in near-seafloor siliciclastic sediments on continental slopes irrespective of the presence or absence of gas hydrate.

Naim, Fawz↗

Selective Logging, Fire, and Biomass in Amazonia

Biomass and rates of disturbance are major factors in determining the net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and neither of them is well known for most of the earth's surface. Satellite data over large areas are beginning to be used systematically to measure rates of two of the most important types of disturbance, deforestation and reforestation, but these are not the only types of disturbance that affect carbon storage. Other examples include selective logging and fire. In northern mid-latitude forests, logging and subsequent regrowth of forests have, in recent decades, contributed more to the net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere than any other type of land use. In the tropics logging is also becoming increasingly important. According to the FAO/UNEP assessment of tropical forests, about 25% of total area of productive forests have been logged one or more times in the 60-80 years before 1980. The fraction must be considerably greater at present. Thus, deforestation by itself accounts for only a portion of the emissions carbon from land. Furthermore, as rates of deforestation become more accurately measured with satellites, uncertainty in biomass will become the major factor accounting for the remaining uncertainty in estimates of carbon flux. An approach is needed for determining the biomass of terrestrial ecosystems. 3 Selective logging is increasingly important in Amazonia, yet it has not been included in region-wide, satellite-based assessments of land-cover change, in part because it is not as striking as deforestation. Nevertheless, logging affects terrestrial carbon storage both directly and indirectly. Besides the losses of carbon directly associated with selective logging, logging also increases the likelihood of fire.

Houghton, R. A.↗

Surface Soil Changes Following Selective Logging in an Eastern Amazon Forest

In the Brazilian Amazon, selective logging is second only to forest conversion in its extent. Conversion to pasture or agriculture tends to reduce soil nutrients and site productivity over time unless fertilizers are added. Logging removes nutrients in bole wood, enough that repeated logging could deplete essential nutrients over time. After a single logging event, nutrient losses are likely to be too small to observe in the large soil nutrient pools, but disturbances associated with logging also alter soil properties. Selective logging, particularly reduced-impact logging, results in consistent patterns of disturbance that may be associated with particular changes in soil properties. Soil bulk density, pH, carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), delta(sup 3)C, delta(sup 15)N, and P fractionations were measured on the soils of four different types of loggingrelated disturbances: roads, decks, skids, and treefall gaps. Litter biomass and percent bare ground were also determined in these areas. To evaluate the importance of fresh foliage inputs from downed tree crowns in treefall gaps, foliar nutrients for mature forest trees were also determined and compared to that of fresh litterfall. The immediate impacts of logging on soil properties and how these might link to the longer-term estimated nutrient losses and the observed changes in soils were studied.

Olander, Lydia P.↗

SpaceOps 2012 Plus 2: Social Tools to Simplify ISS Flight Control Communications and Log Keeping

A paper written for the SpaceOps 2012 Conference (Simplify ISS Flight Control Communications and Log Keeping via Social Tools and Techniques) identified three innovative concepts for real time flight control communications tools based on social mechanisms: a) Console Log Tool (CoLT) - A log keeping application at Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) that provides "anywhere" access, comment and notifications features similar to those found in Social Networking Systems (SNS), b) Cross-Log Communication via Social Techniques - A concept from Johnsson Space Center's (JSC) Mission Control Center Houston (MCC-H) that would use microblogging's @tag and #tag protocols to make information/requests visible and/or discoverable in logs owned by @Destination addressees, and c) Communications Dashboard (CommDash) - A MSFC concept for a Facebook-like interface to visually integrate and manage basic console log content, text chat streams analogous to voice loops, text chat streams dedicated to particular conversations, generic and position-specific status displays/streams, and a graphically based hailing display. CoLT was deployed operationally at nearly the same time as SpaceOps 2012, the Cross- Log Communications idea is currently waiting for a champion to carry it forward, and CommDash was approved as a NASA Iinformation Technoloby (IT) Labs project. This paper discusses lessons learned from two years of actual CoLT operations, updates CommDash prototype development status, and discusses potential for using Cross-Log Communications in both MCC-H and/or POIC environments, and considers other ways for synergizing console applcations.

Cowart, Hugh S.↗

Utah FORGE: Well 16A(78)-32 Logs

This dataset contains all well logs from Utah FORGE well 16A(78)-32. This includes the mud log, Sanvean Technologies logs, and Schlumberger logs. Please see the file descriptions below for information about each log.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Prediction of gas hydrate saturation using machine learning and optimal set of well-logs

We report resistivity and acoustic logs are widely used to estimate gas hydrate saturation in various sedimentary systems using one of the two popular methods ((1) acoustic velocity and (2) electrical resistivity), but the limitations of these two methods are often overlooked, which include (i) well-specific calibration of empirical exponents in the electrical resistivity method, (ii) assumption of known pore morphology for gas hydrates in the acoustic velocity method, and (iii) presence of unknown mineralogy and bulk modulus terms in the acoustic velocity method. NMR-density porosity-derived gas hydrate saturation based on the analysis of the transverse magnetization relaxation time (T2) is considered the most precise method, but acquisition of NMR-based logs is limited at relatively recent drilled sites; additionally, its use in conventional oil and gas reservoirs is not that common due to higher cost and operational deployment limitations associated with acquiring NMR well-logs. This study proposes a new method that predicts gas hydrate saturation (S h ) for any well using porosity, bulk density, and compressional wave (P wave) velocity well-logs with neural network (or stochastic gradient descent regression) without any well-specific calibration and/or other aforementioned shortcomings of the existing methods. The method is developed by examining the underlying dependency between S h and different combinations of well-logs, chosen from 6 routine logs, with 12 different machine learning (ML) algorithms. The accuracy of the proposed method in predicting S h is ~ 84%, which is better than the accuracy of seismic and electrical resistivity methods (≤ 75%) per the results reported by three different studies. The robustness of the method in the specific case of permafrost-associated gas hydrates is demonstrated with well-log data from two wells drilled on the Alaska North Slope.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Automatic log analysis with NLP for the CMS workflow handling

The central Monte-Carlo production of the CMS experiment utilizes the WLCG infrastructure and manages daily thousands of tasks, each up to thousands of jobs. The distributed computing system is bound to sustain a certain rate of failures of various types, which are currently handled by computing operators a posteriori. Within the context of computing operations, and operation intelligence, we propose a Machine Learning technique to learn from the operators with a view to reduce the operational workload and delays. This work is in continuation of CMS work on operation intelligence to try and reach accurate predictions with Machine Learning. We present an approach to consider the log files of the workflows as regular text to leverage modern techniques from Natural Language Processing (NLP). In general, log files contain a substantial amount of text that is not human language. Therefore, different log parsing approaches are studied in order to map the log files’ words to high dimensional vectors. These vectors are then exploited as feature space to train a model that predicts the action that the operator has to take. This approach has the advantage that the information of the log files is extracted automatically and the format of the logs can be arbitrary. In this work the performance of the log file analysis with NLP is presented and compared to previous approaches.

Layer, Lukas↗

Oregon Coast Range Ecological Conservation: Mapping Recent Logging Within Drinking Watersheds of Oregon’s Coastal Range to Support Future Resource Management Policies

Logging operations are widespread across the Oregon Coast Range and conventional logging practices pose a risk of contamination to surface water quality. The NASA DEVELOP Oregon Coast Ecological Conservation team partnered with nonprofit Oregon Wild to quantify the extent of clearcutting and commercial thinning in 80 Coast Range drinking watersheds between 2000 and 2022. This project used all available Landsat data from 1997 through June 2023 in Google Earth Engine. Sensors used include Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, and Landsat 9 Operational Land Imager-2. The Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm was used with Landsat observations to identify clearcutting patches. Percent change in summer median Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images were used to identify areas of forest disturbance including commercial thinning. The team concluded that logging, including both clearcutting and commercial thinning, impacted 31% of forested area in drinking watersheds and the intensity of logging remained consistent from year to year. Clearcutting occurred primarily on private land while commercial thinning occurred primarily on state and federal lands. This study showed that CCDC effectively identifies clearcutting, and percent change in NDVI successfully identifies disturbances including commercial thinning. Key constraints included the lack of field validation data and the inability to attribute disturbances to logging with certainty. Ultimately, this study identified the drinking watersheds and communities most likely to be impacted by logging activity. These results can inform legislation aimed at balancing the commercial and environmental benefits of forestlands.

Logging↗