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At least 37 records · Page 2

A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Short, David A.↗

Statistical Properties of SGR 1900+14 Bursts

We study the statistics of soft gamma repeater (SGR) bursts using a database of 187 events detected with BATSE and 837 events detected with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array: all events are from SGR 1900+14 during its 1998-1999 active phase. We find that the fluence or energy distribution of bursts is consistent with a power law of index 1.66, over 4 orders of magnitude. This scale-free distribution resembles the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquakes and gives evidence for self-organized criticality in SGRS. The distribution of time intervals between successive bursts from SGR 1900+14 is consistent with a lognormal distribution. There is no correlation between burst intensity and the waiting times till the next burst, but there is some evidence for a correlation between burst intensity and the time elapsed since the previous burst. We also find a correlation between the duration and the energy of the bursts, but with significant scatter. In all these statistical properties, SGR bursts resemble earthquakes and solar flares more closely than they resemble any known accretion-powered or nuclear-powered phenomena. Thus, our analysis lends support to the hypothesis that the energy source for SGR bursts is internal to the neutron star and plausibly magnetic.

Gogus, Ersin↗

Pyroshock Environments Characterized for Spacecraft Missions

Pyrotechnic shock, or pyroshock, is the transient response of a structure to loading induced by the ignition of pyrotechnic (explosive or propellant activated) devices. These devices are typically used to separate structural systems (e.g., separate a spacecraft from a launch vehicle) and deploy appendages (e.g., solar panels). Pyroshocks are characterized by high peak acceleration, high-frequency content, and short duration. Because of their high acceleration and high-frequency, pyroshocks can cause spaceflight hardware to fail. Verifying by test that spaceflight hardware can withstand the anticipated shock environment is considered essential to mission success. The Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 spacecraft for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth is scheduled to be launched on an Atlas IIAS vehicle in 1999, and the NASA Lewis Research Center is the launch vehicle integrator for this NASA Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft. The EOS spacecraft was subjected to numerous ground shock tests to verify that its scientific instruments and avionics components will withstand the shock-induced vibration produced when the spacecraft separates from the launch vehicle. Shock test data from these tests represent the third largest available pyroshock database in the United States. Future spacecraft missions will directly benefit from the knowledge gained from these tests. The payload separation system used for EOS is a new system that operates by firing six separation nuts. This system was tested to verify its functional operation and to characterize the resulting shock levels. The launch vehicle contractor (Lockheed Martin Astronautics) and spacecraft contractor (Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space) completed 16 separation test firings. This resulted in an unusually large amount of pyroshock data. Typically, only one or two pyroshock test firings are performed for a spacecraft mission. Because of the size of this separation system shock database, engineers were able to perform unique statistical analyses to characterize the distribution of the test data. For example, it was proven that the shock data follow a lognormal distribution, a concept often assumed but rarely proven. The test-to-test repeatability of the shock source level was analyzed, and the effects of various test configurations and separation nut production lots were examined and quantified. Engineers investigated the change in shock level as the shock traveled from the spacecraft separation interface to the avionics components of the upper stage and analyzed the effects of the structural fidelity (simulator versus real) of the components and their weight on vibrational response. In addition, the shock attenuation with distance and across joints was quantified and compared with concepts originally generated in 1970, and the effects of separation nut preload and firing sequences effects were examined. Because of this EOS shock testing and the analyses performed at NASA Lewis, a significant amount of new information on pyroshock and its characteristics is now available to the aerospace industry. We hope that this information will help future spacecraft test planners to perform better and cheaper spacecraft separation shock tests and to better understand their test data.

Hughes, William O.↗

Linear velocity fields in non-Gaussian models for large-scale structure

Linear velocity fields in two types of physically motivated non-Gaussian models are examined for large-scale structure: seed models, in which the density field is a convolution of a density profile with a distribution of points, and local non-Gaussian fields, derived from a local nonlinear transformation on a Gaussian field. The distribution of a single component of the velocity is derived for seed models with randomly distributed seeds, and these results are applied to the seeded hot dark matter model and the global texture model with cold dark matter. An expression for the distribution of a single component of the velocity in arbitrary local non-Gaussian models is given, and these results are applied to such fields with chi-squared and lognormal distributions. It is shown that all seed models with randomly distributed seeds and all local non-Guassian models have single-component velocity distributions with positive kurtosis.

Scherrer, Robert J.↗

Particle size distributions in polar mesospheric clouds derived from solar mesosphere explorer measurements

Data from the visible and UV spectrometers on the Solar Mesosphere Explorer are used to derive the color ratios of the reflectance at 265, 296, and 393 nm of light scattered from polar mesospheric cloud particles. This analysis extends the spectral coverage into the visible region of the spectrum. The data reduction technique compared the cloud brightness to the brightness scattered from the background atmosphere at the same wavelength. The ratios determined in this way are independent of systematic errors in instrument radiometric calibration. The data are analyzed using theoretical determinations of the color ratios from the Mie theory of small particle scattering, assuming a lognormal distribution for the particle size dispersion. Here 'size' means the average radius of the sphere having the same ice volume. The present results confirm earlier findings that the effective sizes of polar mesospheric cloud particles are less than 70 nm. Still, there exists a small number of measurements which result in particle sizes of the order of 80 nm. Even for these large particle sizes the required vertical column content of water vapor does not exceed limits imposed by the available atmospheric water vapor concentrations.

Rusch, D. W.↗

Rate statistics for radio noise from lightning

Radio frequency noise from lightning was measured at several frequencies in the HF - VHF range at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida. The data were examined to determine flashing rate statistics during periods of strong activity from nearby storms. It was found that the time between flashes is modeled reasonably well by a random variable with a lognormal distribution.

Levine, D. M.↗

Accelerated life testing and reliability of high K multilayer ceramic capacitors

The reliability of one lot of high K multilayer ceramic capacitors was evaluated using accelerated life testing. The degradation in insulation resistance was characterized as a function of voltage and temperature. The times to failure at a voltage-temperature stress conformed to a lognormal distribution with a standard deviation approximately 0.5.

Minford, W. J.↗

Stillwater anorthosites - A lunar analog?

Samples of anorthosite from Stillwater complex units AN-I and AN-II have been studied by instrumental neutron activation analysis for FeO, CaO, Na2O, REE, and other trace elements, and the results are discussed. No systematic variations of chemical composition with stratigraphic position were observed. The major and trace compositions of both units appear to be identical, with plagioclase compositions virtually constant throughout both. Thus, there is almost no evidence for evolution of parent magma composition during the genesis of these units. The bulk of the anorthosites appear to consist of cumulus-adcumulus plagioclase and pyroxene. Very little trapped liquid component was found. The chemical elements are not normally or lognormally distributed among samples taken from either anorthosite unit. The irregular distribution of pyroxene oikocrysts indicates that interstitial melt migrated substantially prior to final consolidation of the rock.

Salpas, P. A.↗

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Chiu, Long S.↗

Scattering of light by stochastically rough particles

The single particle phase function and the linear polarization for large stochastically deformed spheres have been calculated by Monte Carlo simulation using the geometrical optics approximation. The radius vector of a particle is assumed to obey a bivariate lognormal distribution with three free parameters: mean radius, its standard deviation and the coherence length of the autocorrelation function. All reflections/refractions which include sufficient energy have been included. Real and imaginary parts of the refractive index can be varied without any restrictions. Results and comparisons with some earlier less general theories are presented. Applications of this theory to the photometric properties of atmosphereless bodies and interplanetary dust are discussed.

Peltoniemi, Jouni I.↗

Statistical properties of shock-accelerated ions in the outer heliosphere

Reported here are statistical studied of interplanetary protons (about 0.5-1.5 MeV) as measured by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in the outer heliosphere between about 1 and 22 AU. The acceleration processes which produce the fluctuations in intensity of the protons throughout the interval studied are caused by solar flare-generated shock waves and corotating shock structures in the solar wind. It is found that the proton count rates can be represented by a lognormal distribution, independent of the phase of the solar cycle in which the measurements were made. Power spectra of the logarithm of the counts show that for frequencies in the range of about 0.02-0.5 cycles per day, the spectra can be characterized as about f exp -2. At lower frequencies, the spectra turn over and flatten. Over the entire frequency range studied, about 0.002-0.5 cycles per day, the spectra are therefore nonfractal. The rollover in the spectra at about 100 days probably represents the reorganization time for solar wind streams within the coronal source at the sun.

Lanzeroti, L. J.↗

Optimal thresholds for the estimation of area rain-rate moments by the threshold method

Optimization of the threshold method, achieved by determination of the threshold that maximizes the correlation between an area-average rain-rate moment and the area coverage of rain rates exceeding the threshold, is demonstrated empirically and theoretically. Empirical results for a sequence of GATE radar snapshots show optimal thresholds of 5 and 27 mm/h for the first and second moments, respectively. Theoretical optimization of the threshold method by the maximum-likelihood approach of Kedem and Pavlopoulos (1991) predicts optimal thresholds near 5 and 26 mm/h for lognormally distributed rain rates with GATE-like parameters. The agreement between theory and observations suggests that the optimal threshold can be understood as arising due to sampling variations, from snapshot to snapshot, of a parent rain-rate distribution. Optimal thresholds for gamma and inverse Gaussian distributions are also derived and compared.

Short, David A.↗

Generation of magnetic fields by chaotic fluid convection - The fast dynamo problem

In the kinematic fast dynamo problem, the underlying nonlinear dynamics of the flow play a critical role in the behavior of a dynamo field. It is presently noted that the two important facets of the problem are the approximately lognormal distribution of vector lengths, and the presence of partial cancellation. It is suggested that these features may be reflected in the magnetic fields observed on the sun.

Finn, John M.↗

Mixing in a stratified shear flow: Energetics and sampling

Direct numerical simulations of the time evolution of homogeneous stably stratified shear flows have been performed for Richardson numbers from 0 to 1 and for Prandtl numbers between 0.1 and 2. The results indicate that mixing efficiency R(sub f) varies with turbulent Froude number in a manner consistent with laboratory experiments performed with Prandtl numbers of 0.7 and 700. However, unlike the laboratory results, for a particular Froude number, the simulations do not show a clear dependence on the magnitude of R(sub f) on Pr. The observed maximum value of R(sub f) is 0.25. When averaged over vertical length scales of an order of magnitude greater than either the overturning or Ozmidov scales of the flow, the simulations indicate that the dissipation rate epsilon is only weakly lognormally distributed with an intermittency of about 0.01 whereas estimated values in the ocean are 3 to 7.

Ivey, G. N.↗

Preliminary analysis of fluctuations in the received uplink-beacon-power data obtained from the GOLD experiments

Uplink data from recent free-space optical communication experiments carried out between the Table Mountain Facility and the Japanese Engineering Test Satellite are used to study fluctuations caused by beam propagation through the atmosphere. The influence of atmospheric scintillation, beam wander and jitter, and multiple uplink beams on the statistics of power received by the satellite is analyzed and compared to experimental data. Preliminary analysis indicates the received signal obeys an approximate lognormal distribution, as predicted by the weak-turbulence model, but further characterization of other sources of fluctuations is necessary for accurate link predictions.

M. Jeganathan↗

Preliminary Analysis of Fluctuations in the Received Uplink-Beacon-Power Data Obtained From the GOLD Experiments

Uplink data from recent free-space optical communication experiments carried out between the Table Mountain Facility and the Japanese Engineering Test Satellite are used to study fluctuations caused by beam propagation through the atmosphere. The influence of atmospheric scintillation, beam wander and jitter, and multiple uplink beams on the statistics of power received by the satellite is analyzed and compared to experimental data. Preliminary analysis indicates the received signal obeys an approximate lognormal distribution, as predicted by the weak-turbulence model, but further characterization of other sources of fluctuations is necessary for accurate link predictions.

Jeganathan, M.↗

Recent Development on O(+) - O Collision Frequency and Ionosphere-Thermosphere Coupling

The collision frequency between an oxygen atom and its singly charged ion controls the momentum transfer between the ionosphere and the thermosphere. There has been a long standing discrepancy, extending over a decade, between the theoretical and empirical determination of this frequency: the empirical value of this frequency exceeded the theoretical value by a factor of 1.7. Recent improvements in theory were obtained by using accurate oxygen ion-oxygen atom potential energy curves, and partial wave quantum mechanical calculations. We now have applied three independent statistical methods to the observational data, obtained at the MIT/Millstone Hill Observatory, consisting of two sets A and B. These methods give results consistent with each other, and together with the recent theoretical improvements, bring the ratio close to unity, as it should be. The three statistical methods lead to an average for the ratio of the empirical to the theoretical values equal to 0.98, with an uncertainty of +/-8%, resolving the old discrepancy between theory and observation. The Hines statistics, and the lognormal distribution statistics, both give lower and upper bounds for the Set A equal to 0.89 and 1.02, respectively. The related bounds for the Set B are 1.06 and 1.17. The average values of these bounds thus bracket the ideal value of the ratio which should be equal to unity. The main source of uncertainties are errors in the profile of the oxygen atom density, which is of the order of 11%. An alternative method to find the oxygen atom density is being suggested.

Omidvar, K.↗

Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison (CPMC) is a project of the GEWEX Cloud System Study Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (GCSS WG2). The primary goal of this project is to identify cirrus model sensitivities to the state of our knowledge of nucleation and microphysics. Furthermore, the common ground of the findings may provide guidelines for models with simpler cirrus microphysics modules. We focus on the nucleation regimes of the warm (parcel starting at -40 C and 340 hPa) and cold (-60 C and 170 hPa) cases studied in the GCSS WG2 Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project. Nucleation and ice crystal growth were forced through an externally imposed rate of lift and consequent adiabatic cooling. The background haze particles are assumed to be lognormally-distributed H2SO4 particles. Only the homogeneous nucleation mode is allowed to form ice crystals in the HN-ONLY runs; all nucleation modes are switched on in the ALL-MODE runs. Participants were asked to run the HN-lambda-fixed runs by setting lambda = 2 (lambda is further discussed in section 2) or tailoring the nucleation rate calculation in agreement with lambda = 2 (exp 1). The depth of parcel lift (800 m) was set to assure that parcels underwent complete transition through the nucleation regime to a stage of approximate equilibrium between ice mass growth and vapor supplied by the specified updrafts.

Lin, Ruei-Fong↗