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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

DarkNESS: developing a skipper-CCD instrument to search for Dark Matter from Low Earth Orbit

The DarkNESS (Dark Matter Nano-satellite Equipped with Skipper Sensors) mission aims to deploy a skipper-CCD CubeSat Observatory to search for dark matter (DM) from Low Earth Orbit. This mission will employ novel skipper-CCDs to investigate O(keV) X-rays from decaying DM, as well as electron recoils from strongly-interacting sub-GeV DM. The DarkNESS mission will be the first space deployment of skipper-CCDs, and the DarkNESS team is developing a skipper-CCD instrument that is compatible with the CubeSat platform. DarkNESS has recently progressed from laboratory validation to a Critical Design Review (CDR) phase, with a launch opportunity anticipated in late 2025. The implementation of the DarkNESS skipper-CCD payload on the CubeSat platform will pave the way for future demonstrators of space-based imagers for X-ray and single-electron counting applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulated Feasibility of 3-D Lightning Mapping From Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2-D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3-D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of high-resolution 3-D lightning mapping using a radio frequency (RF)-based network of satellites from low-Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing lightning mapping array (LMA) tools, modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg–Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3-D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high-frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3-D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Hypothesis Tracking for Opportunistic Transmitter Identification

The exploitation of radio frequency (RF) signals from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) communication satellites for the purposes of navigation is an active field of research. In this alternative navigation system, navigation observables are passively extracted from existing RF signals. Because these signals are not designed for navigation purposes and often have proprietary signal structures that are unknown to the receiver, they lack much of the information required for navigation systems or such information is unavailable to the receiver.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Initial Results of Space Radiation Dosimetry Using the iMESA-R

The integrated Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer-Reflight (iMESA-R) is a space weather instrument designed to measure plasma density, temperature, and spacecraft charging, along with total ionizing dose and dose rate. A constellation consisting of five nearly identical instruments has been designed and developed to act as science payloads hosted on-board Department of Defense satellites operating in low-Earth orbit. To validate the dosimetry component of the iMESA-R, a radiation test study was performed to calibrate the dosimeter and ascertain the attenuation due to the instrument aluminum housing. An 80 curie Cobalt-60 radioisotope source emitting beta, X-ray, and gamma ray radiation decay products was used to calibrate the dosimeter response as a function of distance and instrument shielding. We present results of the calibration study along with initial on-orbit data presented from the first operational iMESA-R hosted on-board Space Test Program Satellite 5 in a polar Earth orbit. The initial on-orbit data demonstrate the ability to map the radiation environment, particularly the South Atlantic Anomaly and the auroral regions using total ionizing dose rate due to electrons of E > 1.5 MeV and protons of E > 25 MeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning

Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.

FSO availability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Terminus: A Versatile Simulator for Space-based Telescopes

Space-based telescopes offer unparalleled opportunities for characterizing exoplanets, solar system bodies, and stellar objects. However, observatories in low-Earth orbits (e.g., Hubble, CHaracterising ExOPlanets Satellite, Twinkle, and an ever-increasing number of cubesats) cannot always be continuously pointed at a target due to Earth obscuration. For exoplanet observations consisting of transit, or eclipse, spectroscopy, this causes gaps in the light curve, which reduces the information content and can diminish the science return of the observation. Terminus, a time-domain simulator, has been developed to model the occurrence of these gaps to predict the potential impact on future observations. The simulator is capable of radiometrically modeling exoplanet observations as well as producing light curves and spectra. Here, Terminus is baselined on the Twinkle mission, but the model can be adapted for any space-based telescope and is especially applicable to those in a low-Earth orbit. Terminus also has the capability to model observations of other targets such as asteroids or brown dwarfs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of X-ray event screening using ground and in-orbit data for the Resolve instrument onboard the XRISM satellite

The X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) satellite was successfully launched and put into a low-Earth orbit on September 6, 2023 (UT). The Resolve instrument onboard XRISM hosts an X-ray microcalorimeter detector, which was designed to achieve a high-resolution ( ≤ 7 eV FWHM at 6 keV), high-throughput, and non-dispersive spectroscopy over a wide energy range. It also excels in a low background with a requirement of < 2 × 10 -3 s -1 keV -1 (0.3 to 12.0 keV), which is equivalent to only one background event per spectral bin per 100-ks exposure. Event screening to discriminate X-ray events from background is a key to meeting the requirement. We present the result of the Resolve event screening using data sets recorded on the ground and in orbit based on the heritage of the preceding X-ray microcalorimeter missions, in particular, the Soft X-ray Spectrometer onboard ASTRO-H. We optimize and evaluate 19 screening items of three types based on (1) the event pulse shape, (2) relative arrival times among multiple events, and (3) good time intervals. We show that the initial screening, which is applied for science data products in the performance verification phase, reduces the background rate to 1.8 × 10 -3 s -1 keV -1 meeting the requirement. We further evaluate the additional screening utilizing the correlation among some pulse shape properties of X-ray events and show that it further reduces the background rate, particularly in the < 2 keV band. Over 0.3 to 12 keV, the background rate becomes 1.0 × 10 -3 s -1 keV -1 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Early Science observations with the CHaracterising ExOPlanets Satellite ( CHEOPS ) using pycheops

ABSTRACT CHEOPS (CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite) is an ESA S-class mission that observes bright stars at high cadence from low-Earth orbit. The main aim of the mission is to characterize exoplanets that transit nearby stars using ultrahigh precision photometry. Here, we report the analysis of transits observed by CHEOPS during its Early Science observing programme for four well-known exoplanets: GJ 436 b, HD 106315 b, HD 97658 b, and GJ 1132 b. The analysis is done using pycheops, an open-source software package we have developed to easily and efficiently analyse CHEOPS light-curve data using state-of-the-art techniques that are fully described herein. We show that the precision of the transit parameters measured using CHEOPS is comparable to that from larger space telescopes such as Spitzer Space Telescope and Kepler. We use the updated planet parameters from our analysis to derive new constraints on the internal structure of these four exoplanets.

Maxted, P. F. L. (ORCID:0000000337941317)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phosphonic-Acid-Reinforced Polymer Hole Transport Layers for Deployable p-i-n Perovskite Photovoltaics

The long-term durability prospects of halide perovskite solar cells are rapidly improving; however, the interface between the hole transport layer (HTL) and the perovskite remains a source of degradation. Alone, polymer- or carbazole-based HTLs suffer from incomplete coverage of the underlying indium tin oxide glass, leading to degradation and compromised performance. Here, we show a multi-HTL approach whereby a polymer HTL is reinforced using a phosphonic acid modification leading to better protection of the buried perovskite interface and more columnar growth of perovskite film, resulting in an ~40-mV open-circuit voltage (VOC) improvement indicative of suppressed interfacial recombination across multiple p-i-n device architectures. Solar cells with this reinforced HTL show higher tolerance to several accelerated stress tests. We report, among the best durabilities for unencapsulated cells, a T90 ~3,000 h (T80 ~5,900 h) at 65 degrees C under continuous 1.2 sun AM 1.5G illumination and maximum power point tracking, representing a nearly 4-fold increase compared with [2-(9H-carbazol-9-yl)ethyl]phosphonic acid (2PACz)-only devices. Furthermore, we deployed a device with this reinforced HTL on a cube satellite, with long-duration operational space testing results exceeding T80 for the complete mission duration of ~100 days in low Earth orbit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The integrated miniaturized electrostatic analyzer: A space plasma environment sensor

The integrated Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer (iMESA) was a satellite-based ionospheric sensor that operated on NASA’s Space Test Program Satellite (STPSat-3) from December 2013 to July 2019. The instrument’s scientific objective was to (1) measure the plasma density in low Earth orbit, (2) measure the plasma temperature in low Earth orbit, and (3) quantify the spacecraft potential with respect to the ambient plasma potential in the ionosphere. iMESA sampled the ionosphere every 10 s by measuring the ion current density through the ESA as a result of the motion of the spacecraft through the plasma. Current density spectra were transmitted to the ground where they were post-processed into ion density spectra and then analyzed numerically to determine the ion density, ion temperature, and spacecraft potential. This article discusses the instrument design and simulation, the determination of a geometric factor, and data processing procedures and evaluates the final data product with regard to the mission success criteria. Here, the ion density and ion temperature captured by the iMESA instrument are on the same order and range as the values predicted in the literature. The spacecraft potential was also quantified. The conclusion after the evaluation of the instrument’s data product is that the scientific mission is successful on all three points.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Retrospective of Findings From the FORTE Satellite Mission

We revisit the findings from the FORTE satellite program (1997–2004), which collected optical imaging of lightning as well as optical and radio frequency time series waveforms globally from low-earth-orbit. These include surveys of the earth's radio frequency anthropogenic noise environment; earth surface reflectivity at radio frequencies; a scheme for classifying lightning discharge types on the basis of their very high frequency time domain power envelope; insights into the polarization and radiation pattern characteristics of different lightning types, with implications for the underlying discharge processes; and estimates of cloud optical properties based on the statistics of scattered light. Most significantly, FORTE was uniquely suited to capture large samples of data from the rare discharge known as “narrow bipolar events,” enabling detailed examination of their basic characteristics and confirming that they appear to result from fundamentally distinct physical processes compared to other lightning. In particular, despite representing huge charge transfer they evidently produce little-to-no light output.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

SSAPy - Space Situational Awareness for Python

SSAPy is a fast and flexible orbit modeling and analysis tool for orbits spanning from low-Earth into the cislunar regime. Orbits can be flexibly specified from common input formats such as Keplerian elements or two-line element (TLE) data files. SSAPy allows users to model satellites and specify parameters such as satellite area, mass, and drag coefficients. SSAPy includes a customizable force-propagation with a range of Earth, Lunar, radiation, atmospheric, and maneuvering models. SSAPy makes use of various community integration methods and can calculate time-evolved orbital quantities, including satellite magnitudes and state vectors. Users can specify various space- and ground-based observation models with support for multiple coordinate and reference frames. SSAPy also supports orbit analysis and propagation methods such as multiple hypothesis tracking and has built-in uncertainty quantification. The majority of SSAPy’s methods are vectorized and parallelizable, allowing for effective use of high-performance computer (HPC) systems. Finally, SSAPy has plotting functionality, allowing users to visualize orbits and trajectories. Examples are shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The DarkNESS mission: probing dark matter with a Skipper-CCD satellite observatory

The invention of Skipper-CCDs with sub-electron noise has paved the way for groundbreaking low-threshold dark matter (DM) experiments, such as SENSEI and DAMIC. Conventionally, these experiments are deployed underground to mitigate cosmogenic backgrounds; however, some DM signatures are inaccessible to underground experiments due to attenuation in the Earth’s atmosphere and crust. The DarkNESS mission will deploy an array of Skipper-CCDs on a 6U CubeSat in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to search for electron recoils from strongly-interacting sub-GeV DM as well as X-ray line signatures from sterile neutrino decay. Using a series of observations from LEO, the DarkNESS mission will set competitive upper limits on the DM-electron scattering cross section and help resolve the experimental conundrum associated with the purported observation of a 3.5 keV X-ray line, potentially produced from sterile neutrino decay. This work will describe the DarkNESS instrument, the technical challenges in operating Skipper-CCDs in the space environment, the scientific objectives of the DarkNESS mission, and the DM parameter space that DarkNESS will probe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Nowcasting Approach for Low-Earth-Orbiting Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings within the Convective Environment

Low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant yet untapped potential for characterizing thermodynamic environments of convective initiation and ongoing convection. While LEO soundings are of value to weather forecasters, the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving thermodynamics of the convective environment is limited. Here, we have developed a novel nowcasting methodology to extend snapshots of LEO soundings forward in time up to 6 h to create a product available within National Weather Service systems for user assessment. Our methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite-observing time to generate future soundings of temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. The soundings are based on NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) retrievals from the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and NOAA-20 satellite platforms. The tendencies of derived convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) are evaluated against gridded, hourly accumulated rainfall obtained from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) observations for 24 hand-selected cases over the contiguous United States. Areas with forecast increases in CAPE (reduced CIN) are shown to be associated with areas of precipitation. The increases in CAPE and decreases in CIN are largest for areas that have the heaviest precipitation and are statistically significant compared to areas without precipitation. These results imply that adiabatic parcel advection of LEO satellite sounding snapshots forward in time are capable of identifying convective initiation over an expanded temporal scale compared to soundings used only during the LEO satellite overpass time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗