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DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modelling Tritium Production and Release at High-Energy Proton Accelerators

Tritium is a well-known byproduct of particle accelerator operations. To keep levels of tritium below regulatory limits, tritium production is actively monitored and managed at Fermilab. We plan to study tritium production in the targets, beamline components, and shielding elements of the Fermilab facilities such as NuMI, BNB, and MI-65. To facilitate the analysis, we construct a simple model and use three Monte Carlo radiation codes, FLUKA, MARS, and PHITS, to estimate the amount of tritium produced in these facilities. The analysis could also serve as an intercomparison between these code results related to tritium production. To assess the actual amounts of tritium that would be released from various materials, we employ a semi-empirical diffusion model. The results of this analysis are compared to experimental data whenever possible. This approach also helps to optimize proposed target materials with respect to the tritium production and release.

Georgobiani, Dali [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Activity model for 36 elements in Fe-Ni-Si-S-C liquids with application to terrestrial planet accretion and mantle geochemistry: New data for Ru, Re, Pt, Os, Ti, Nb, and Ta

Understanding siderophile element partitioning between metal and silicate melts under diverse conditions can be used to place important constraints on the materials and conditions of planetary accretion and core formation, as well as post core formation processes. However, the effects of Si on the partitioning and activity coefficients for these elements are not well known, despite Si likely being one of the dominant light elements in Earth’s core. To address this gap in understanding, we have undertaken a systematic study of the highly siderophile elements Re, Pt, Os, and Ru, and the refractory lithophile elements Nb, Ta and Ti at 1600 °C and 1 GPa, to derive epsilon interaction parameters for these elements in FeSi metallic liquids. Positive epsilon interaction parameters were measured for Nb, Ta, Ti, Ru, Re, Pt, and Os, indicating that dissolved Si in Fe liquids causes a decrease in their metal/silicate partition coefficients (or ‘silicophobic’ behavior). Furthermore, ε$_{Re, Os, or Ru}^{Si}$ > ε$_{Re, Os, or Ru}^{S}$ which means Si causes a larger decrease in D(metal/silicate) than S, and the chalcophile behavior expected from some elements will be completely masked by the presence of Si in a metallic liquid. The new parameters are used to update an activity model that now includes 36 siderophile elements in Fe-Ni-Si-S-C liquids (27 trace elements considered here). Systematic assessment of these 27 elements shows which have the strongest affinity for Si, C, and S, and also how activity coefficients for these elements would vary during accretion and core formation in Earth, Mars, and Mercury of widely differing fO 2 and core compositional conditions. The activity model is combined with new partitioning expressions for Mo, W, Cr, Re Ru, Pt, and Os and applied to aspects of post core formation mantle geochemistry of Earth, Mars, and Mercury. Our updated expressions show that the BSE Mo/W ratio can easily be achieved with metal/silicate partitioning during growth of the Earth, whereas Re, Os and Ru become lower than and highly fractionated compared with BSE values during core formation and accretion, and thus nearly 99% of their BSE abundances are likely contributed by late accretion. Ru isotopes should be a very good indicator of the source material for the late accretion. The high Pt/Os and Re/Os developed in a deepening magma ocean during the growth of the Earth, indicates 186 Os and 187 Os isotopes could be coupled if this ancient material remained isolated and subsequently became entrained in mantle plumes and measured in surficial lavas. The extent to which this occurred will be limited by the low Os content of this ancient material, thus requiring mixing as a major component in plume sources. Martian mantle Hf/W ratio stays low during accretion and core formation modelling, suggesting that W isotope anomalies are more likely due to solid/liquid silicate fractionation than to core formation. Finally, Ti contents measured by MESSENGER at Mercury’s surface can be explained by segregation of either a metallic core (IW-6 to -8) or metallic core + sulfide (IW-4 to -7.5) followed by mantle melting.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization Studies of Radiation Shielding for PIP-II Project at Fermilab

The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) at Fermilab represents a significant advancement in the quest to answer some of the most profound questions about our universe using the world's most intense high-energy neutrino beam. The project requires the construction of a new addition to the Fermilab accelerator complex – an 800-MeV high-intensity superconducting linear accelerator. Ensuring the safety and regulatory compliance of this ambitious project is paramount, necessitating thorough dose rate assessments under both normal operational and accidental scenarios to align with the Fermilab Radiological Control Manual (FRCM) standards. Our approach included a shielding optimization used for the simulations with the Monte Carlo code MARS [1,2,3] to incorporate new magnet and collimator designs, essential for reflecting the current state of PIP-II infrastructure. The implementation of high-resolution detector planes, despite their computational demands, enabled us to gather detailed radiation field data crucial for optimizing shielding configurations. To overcome the significant computational demands, we developed a branching code that drastically reduced simulation runtimes while maintaining statistical integrity. This was achieved through geometry splitting and the application of Russian Roulette techniques, tailored to prioritize regions of interest based on predefined importances and weight limits.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization Studies of Radiation Shielding for PIP-II Project at Fermilab

Makovec, Alajos↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microstructural Simulation of Ion-Irradiated Natural Rocks and Minerals

This report details the contribution of Oak Ridge National Laboratory to the Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) project, "Rapid Characterization of Concrete Mineralogy using Multi-Scale Tools" led by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To support the subsequent license renewal (SLR) of the US nuclear power plants (NPPs) fleet, the performance of concrete-forming aggregates against neutron irradiation needs to be assessed. Ion irradiation is proposed as a rapid, cost-effective surrogate method to full neutron irradiation testing. To complement the characterization of ion-irradiated rock specimens, ORNL has run finite-elements and fast-Fourier transform (FFT-based) simulations using the codes MARS and Microstructure-Oriented Scientific Analysis of Irradiated Concrete (MOSAIC). The main conclusion of this analysis is that the apparent post–ion-irradiation step-height underestimates the accumulated free radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) in the ion-implanted depth by about 15% at full amorphization and about 25% toward the beginning of the ion irradiation experiment. The discrepancy is explained by the fact that the step height is proportional to the sum of the RIVE (i.e., one third of the RIVE) and the irradiation-assisted plastic strains in the vertical direction (lower than two thirds of the RIVE). Because of the large lateral compressive stresses caused by the restraining effect of the unirradiated substrate, the stress field in the mineral grains and at the grain boundary (GB) in the ion-implanted layer is much different than the comparable stress field occurring during neutron irradiation. Hence, the mismatch RIVE causing cracks in the rock-forming minerals leads to different cracking patterns. Ion irradiation continues to be used as a rapid technique to assess the RIVE potential of rocks.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Martian Crater Chronology: Implications for Jezero Crater

Crater chronologies are a fundamental tool to assess the relative and absolute ages of planetary surfaces when direct radiometric dating is not available. Martian crater chronologies are derived from lunar crater spatial densities on terrains with known radiometric ages, and thus they critically depend on the Moon-to-Mars extrapolation. This extrapolation requires knowledge of the time evolution of the impact flux, including contributions from various impactor populations, factors that are not trivially connected to the dynamical evolution of the early Solar System. In this paper, we will present a new Martian crater chronology based on current dynamical models, and consider the main sources of uncertainties (e.g., impactor size–frequency distribution; dynamical models with late and early instabilities, etc.). The resulting “envelope” of Martian crater chronologies significantly differs from previous chronologies. The new Martian crater chronology is discussed using two interesting applications: Jezero crater’s dark terrain (relevant to the NASA Mars 2020 mission) and the southern heavily cratered highlands. Our results indicate that Jezero’s dark terrain may have formed ∼3.1 Ga, i.e., up to 0.5 Gyr older than previously thought. In addition, available crater chronologies (including our own) overestimate the number of craters larger than 150 km on the southern highlands, suggesting either that large craters have been efficiently erased over Martian history or that dynamical models need further refinement. Further, our chronology constrains the age of Isidis basin to be 4.05–4.2 Ga and that of the Borealis basin to be 4.35–4.40 Ga; these are predictions that can be tested with future sample and return missions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

A comparative study of multimodal data fusion strategies for planetary spectroscopy

Integrating heterogeneous data sources can improve scientific inference when different modalities capture complementary information, but doing so is challenging in high-dimensional, small-sample settings. In spectroscopy for planetary exploration, Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS), Raman Spectroscopy (Raman), Visible Infrared Spectroscopy (VISIR), and Mid-Infrared Spectroscopy (MIR) each examine different aspects of composition and mineralogy, raising fundamental questions about when and how data fusion improves predictive performance. Using a Mars-relevant set of geologic standards with measurements from all four modalities, we present a rigorous systematic evaluation of four data fusion strategies: low-level (data) fusion, mid-level (feature) fusion, high-level (decision) fusion, and residual-boosting (sequential) fusion. We assess performance in predicting oxide composition via nested cross-validation and corrected significance testing to evaluate whether data fusion improves upon single-modality baselines. We show that data fusion does not uniformly improve accuracy, and that observed gains are modest, oxide-dependent, and sensitive to modality and model structure. To move beyond aggregate accuracy metrics, we use model coefficients, permutation importance, and residual gain analysis to examine how the fusion models weight individual modalities and to identify patterns of apparent complementarity or redundancy. Though focused on spectroscopy for planetary exploration, our framework for data fusion evaluation and interpretation extends to other scientific domains with heterogeneous and scarce data and provides a principled approach evaluating data fusion strategies, interpreting modality contributions, and understanding tradeoffs among data fusion strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2023

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), one of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science’s 10 national laboratories, provides innovative science and technology development in the areas of energy and the environment, fundamental and computational science, and national security. There are three DOE offices within the Richland area. Two are responsible for the Hanford Site, whereas the Pacific Northwest Site Office oversees PNNL. PNNL prepares an Annual Site Environmental Report to meet the requirements of DOE Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting, and DOE Order 458.1, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment, thus assuring that the public is informed of any PNNL-Richland campus or PNNL-Sequim campus event that could adversely affect the health and safety of the public, site staff, or the environment. The report provides a synopsis of ongoing environmental management performance and compliance activities for operations that occur at the PNNL-Richland campus in Richland, Washington, and at the PNNL-Sequim campus near Sequim, Washington. It describes the location of and background for each facility; addresses compliance with applicable DOE, federal, state, and local regulations, and site-specific permits; documents environmental monitoring efforts and their status; presents potential radiation doses to staff and the public in the surrounding areas; and describes DOE-required data quality assurance methods used for data verification. The ASER report describes Compliance with Federal, State, and Local Laws and Regulations in 2023, Environmental Sustainability, Environmental monitoring and dose assessment, Natural and Cultural Resource Management, and Quality Assurance activities that took place during Calendar Year 2023.

40 CFR 61 Subpart H↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ultraviolet Photooxidation of Smectite-Bound Fe(II) and Implications for the Origin of Martian Nontronites

Clay minerals detected with orbital and in situ instruments in ancient Martian terrains constrain Mars' climate and aqueous alteration history. Early in its history, Mars experienced an atmospheric redox change and iron-bearing clay minerals may preserve the effects of that transition. Ferrous smectites, the thermodynamically predicted product of chemical weathering of basalts under anoxic conditions, may have undergone oxidation by exposure to chemical oxidants in the atmosphere or regolith, or by direct photooxidation at the surface. To assess these potential oxidation pathways, ferrous trioctahedral smectites of varying initial iron content were synthesized and subjected to oxidation by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. Experimental UV irradiation under an anoxic atmosphere equivalent to approximately 7 years of flux on the Martian surface caused partial oxidation of smectite-bound Fe (Fe 3+ /ΣFe = 16–18%) and octahedral sheet contraction. Metal-OH vibrational bands in visible/near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra of oxidized smectites changed in band depth and asymmetry with higher iron content. X-ray diffraction patterns of UV irradiated samples indicate the formation of a mixed di- and trioctahedral smectite or a secondary nontronite phase, possibly on the surfaces of higher iron content smectites. Furthermore, these experiments suggest that UV irradiation is able to oxidize structurally bound iron in smectites without the presence of other chemical oxidants. Photooxidation may have influenced the mineralogy, both syndepositionally and postdepositionally, of Martian alteration assemblages formed near the surface and this process needs not be limited to one part of their formation history.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2020. Final Report

The U.S. Department of Energy requires that all its site facilities develop an annual site environmental report to comply with DOE Order 231.1B, Chg 1, and DOE Order 458.1, Admin Chg 4. This report provides a synopsis of calendar year 2020 information related to environmental management performance and compliance efforts at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. It summarizes site compliance with federal, state, and local environmental laws, regulations, policies, directives, permits, and Orders, and provides environmental management performance benchmarks and their status to the public, regulatory agencies, community officials, Native American tribes, and public interest groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A bespoke health risk assessment methodology for the radiation protection of astronauts

An alternative approach that is particularly suitable for the radiation health risk assessment (HRA) of astronauts is presented. The quantity, Radiation Attributed Decrease of Survival (RADS), representing the cumulative decrease in the unknown survival curve at a certain attained age, due to the radiation exposure at an earlier age, forms the basis for this alternative approach. Results are provided for all solid cancer plus leukemia incidence RADS from estimated doses from theoretical radiation exposures accumulated during long-term missions to the Moon or Mars. For example, it is shown that a 1000-day Mars exploration mission with a hypothetical mission effective dose of 1.07 Sv at typical astronaut ages around 40 years old, will result in the probability of surviving free of all types of solid cancer and leukemia until retirement age (65 years) being reduced by 4.2% (95% CI 3.2; 5.3) for males and 5.8% (95% CI 4.8; 7.0) for females. RADS dose–responses are given, for the outcomes for incidence of all solid cancer, leukemia, lung and female breast cancer. Results showing how RADS varies with age at exposure, attained age and other factors are also presented. The advantages of this alternative approach, over currently applied methodologies for the long-term radiation protection of astronauts after mission exposures, are presented with example calculations applicable to European astronaut occupational HRA. Some tentative suggestions for new types of occupational risk limits for space missions are given while acknowledging that the setting of astronaut radiation-related risk limits will ultimately be decided by the Space Agencies. Suggestions are provided for further work which builds on and extends this new HRA approach, e.g., by eventually including non-cancer effects and detailed space dosimetry.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fungal mat growth and leaf colonization at the TRACE warming experiment, Mar - Aug 2024, Luquillo, Puerto Rico

This data package contains processed measurements on the growth of litter mat-forming fungi and the time to leaf colonization at the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE). Located near the Sabana Field Research Station in Luquillo, Puerto Rico, the TRACE site is located in a mature, closed-canopy tropical rainforest within the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). These data quantify fungal mat growth and the time to leaf colonization of fungi species Gymnopus johnstonii and Marasmius crinis-equi. The experiment was conducted in ambient (control) and experimentally warmed plots (4°C above ambient) during spring and summer periods to assess how litter mat-forming fungi respond to a range of environmental conditions of tropical wet forests. The data files include tables of relative fungal mat growth rates, time to leaf colonization, averages of soil temperature (°C), and number of dry days before leaf attachment. The data are stored in comma-separated values (CSV) format and viewable with any text editor, spreadsheet, or statistical software (e.g., R, Python, Excel). Associated metadata describe plot identifiers, measurement descriptions, and processing steps.

Agaric fungi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Emissions and Health Cost Impacts of Producing Ethanol and Electricity from Willow and Switchgrass in the Riparian Buffers of Mid-Atlantic United States

The United States (US Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) has the potential to grow a variety of perennial feedstocks such as switchgrass and shrub willow to increase domestic energy production. These cellulosic feedstocks have also shown improved ecosystem services, such as soil carbon sequestration, nitrate leaching reduction, and flood mitigation along rivers and streams as partially harvested riparian buffers. To examine the effects on greenhouse gases (GHGs) and criteria air pollutants (CAPs) from using these feedstocks to produce ethanol or electricity, we conducted a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) and estimated the impact on human health costs when land use is changed from corn production for ethanol. Results indicate up to 54% reduced GHG per hectare from using willow and switchgrass feedstock sources to produce ethanol instead of corn. However, there was a trade-off in terms of CAP emission, as grass-based energy emitted more NO x and SO x compared to the corn ethanol pathway, except for SO X emissions from willow-based electricity. Electricity from cellulosic biomass had higher particulate matter (PM) emission compared to that from corn ethanol. Estimates for health cost to society ranged from $2498 ha –1 for electricity from switchgrass to a net benefit of $448 ha –1 for ethanol production from willow, depending on varying biomass yield under different market scenarios. Although using cellulosic feedstocks to produce bioenergy has great potential to reduce GHG emissions, CAP control measures are needed to manage CAP-induced health costs.

Bioenergy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal performance sensitivity to radial power flattening considerations in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Reactors

Nuclear thermal propulsion is currently being developed for manned Mars and Lunar missions by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration due to its increased specific impulse and significant thrust to reduce the total trip time and cost of deep space missions. To maximize the performance of the engine the exit hydrogen propellant temperature should, ideally, be uniformly distributed among all the fuel elements. Uniform exit temperatures imply that the power must be flattened as much as possible. This paper leverages decoupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic models to assess the thermal performance and reactivity tradeoffs associated with flattening the radial power distribution by adjusting the fuel kernel loading for each fuel element within the core. The results suggest that a uniform radial power distribution for a single control drum position will not necessarily yield an optimal core design due to the higher variance in power and thus maximum fuel and exit propellant temperature as the control drums rotate out during operation. The results presented here only point to the design characteristics be considered when core-level multi-physics simulations are applied in the context of a specific mission. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-efficiency catalytic reduction of residual oxygen for purification of carbon dioxide streams from high-pressure oxy-combustion systems

Pressurized oxy-combustion is a promising technology for carbon capture, utilization, and storage. For the captured CO 2 to be used for enhanced oil recovery or stored in geological formations, flue gas impurities, including residual O 2 in the CO 2 stream, must be purified to meet the purity specifications. A catalytic approach to reducing residual O 2 with CH 4 was investigated in this study. Five CoMn- and Cu-based catalysts were synthesized or acquired, and a reverse-flow fixed-bed reactor was used to assess their performance for O 2 removal from a simulated oxy-combustion flue gas at 15 bar. The impacts of the operating parameters on O 2 removal, such as temperature, gas hourly space velocity, O 2 /CH 4 ratio, and gas pressure, were investigated. Among the tested catalysts, the two CoMn catalysts were superior in both activity and selectivity, with the reaction lighting off at about 350 °C and achieving 99% O 2 removal at about 500 °C. Finally, the kinetics of the catalytic reaction is discussed, and the Mars–van Krevelen redox mechanism is deemed valid for describing the reaction pathway for the top-performing CoMn catalysts. The catalytic reaction was determined to be first order in CH 4 and zero order in O 2 under the test conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Clear-sky detection for PV degradation analysis using multiple regression

A method is presented to detect clear-sky periods for plane-of-array irradiance time-averaged data that is based on the algorithm originally described by Reno and Hansen. Here we show this new method improves the state-of-the-art by providing accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. Moreover, our new method detects clear periods in plane-of-array data, which is novel. The new method is developed by applying a Design of Experiment approach to optimize the parameters used in the Reno method, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to understand the robustness of the found parameters. Clear-sky detection accuracy is compared among four methods: the Reno method, the default clear-sky filter in RdTools, the Ellis method, and the method outlined in this work, using a hand-labeled two-year data set of 1-min plane-of-array irradiance for a fixed tilt system. The RdTools clear-sky filter is marred by excessive false positives. The other methods all perform well at 1-min data intervals; the method developed here provides more accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. We show that the parameters are directly linked to the data frequency in the hope that these input variables may not have to be optimized for every data frequency and location. However, only a single fixed system in one location was carefully examined. Finally, we illustrate how accurate determination of clear-sky conditions helps to eliminate data noise and bias in the assessment of long-term performance of PV plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗