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DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian approach to the long-baseline neutrino oscillation sensitivity of DUNE

The sensitivity of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) to neutrino oscillation is evaluated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. This analysis uses the same underlying sensitivity inputs as previous DUNE studies [Eur. Phys. J. C 80, 978 (2020)], and therefore does not present updated DUNE sensitivities, but instead explores the additional inferences accessible using a Bayesian approach. We present four-dimensional posterior probability distributions of the oscillation parameters, highlighting the breadth of correlation in the parameter space of interest, especially between $\sin^2 θ_{23}$ and $\sin^2 θ_{13}$. We exploit the flexibility of the Bayesian framework to incorporate parameter constraints post hoc and assess the impact of applying a reactor short-baseline $θ_{13}$ constraint. A significant increase in the sensitivity to the $θ_{23}$ octant is found when including the constraint. Posterior distributions of derived quantities can be easily constructed from MCMC results. This work presents the first study of DUNE's sensitivity to the Jarlskog invariant, $J$, a quantity that provides a parametrisation-independent measure of charge-parity violation in the leptonic sector.

Abbaslu, Saeed [IPM, Tehran] (ORCID:00000003356771↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.

Dynamic Linear Model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analytical gradient-based optimization of CALPHAD model parameters

The calibration of CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models involves the solution of a very challenging high-dimensional multiobjective optimization problem. Traditional approaches to parameter fitting predominantly rely on gradient-free methods, which while robust, are computationally inefficient and often scale poorly with model complexity. In this work, we introduce and demonstrate a generalizable framework for analytic gradient-based optimization of the parameters of the CALPHAD model enabled by the recently formalized Jansson derivative technique. This method allows for efficient evaluation of gradients of thermodynamic properties at equilibrium with respect to model parameters, even in the presence of arbitrarily complex internal degrees of freedom. Leveraging these semi-analytic gradients, we employ the conjugate gradient (CG) method to optimize thermodynamic model parameters for four binary alloy systems: Cu-Mg, Fe-Ni, Cr-Ni, and Cr-Fe. Across all systems, CG achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to Bayesian ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with improvements in computational efficiency ranging from one to three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our results establish a new paradigm for CALPHAD assessments in which high fidelity data-rich model calibration becomes tractable using deterministic gradient-informed algorithms.

CALPHAD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transient anisotropic kernel for probabilistic learning on manifolds

PLoM (Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds) is a method introduced in 2016 for handling small training datasets by projecting an Itô equation from a stochastic dissipative Hamiltonian dynamical system, acting as the MCMC generator, for which the KDE-estimated probability measure with the training dataset is the invariant measure. PLoM performs a projection on a reduced-order vector basis related to the training dataset, using the diffusion maps (DMAPS) basis constructed with a time-independent isotropic kernel. In this paper, we propose a new ISDE projection vector basis built from a transient anisotropic kernel, providing an alternative to the DMAPS basis to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data. The construction ensures that for times near the initial time, the DMAPS basis coincides with the transient basis. For larger times, the differences between the two bases are characterized by the angle of their spanned vector subspaces. The optimal instant yielding the optimal transient basis is determined using an estimation of mutual information from Information Theory, which is normalized by the entropy estimation to account for the effects of the number of realizations used in the estimations. Consequently, this new vector basis better represents statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure for any dimension. Three applications with varying levels of statistical complexity and data heterogeneity validate the proposed theory, showing that the transient anisotropic kernel improves the learned probability measure.

Diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pervaporative Dehydration of 2,3-Butanediol by Dense Poly(vinylidene fluoride) Hollow Fiber Membranes: Parameter Estimation, Process Design, and Technoeconomic Evaluation under Uncertainty

Pervaporation, combined with other separation processes, can effectively remove water from fermentation product streams, making it highly suitable for purifying alcohols like 2,3-butanediol (BDO). In this study, a dense poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) hollow fiber membrane module prototype was fabricated for BDO dehydration, achieving >0.2 LMH total flux and >95% BDO rejection. With a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, Bayesian inference was used to quantify the uncertainty of the permeance parameters. A membrane cascade model was developed to scale up a process that purifies a preconcentrated BDO feed (70 wt %) to high purity (90 wt %). Through propagation of the uncertainty of the parameters and sensitivity analyses of the process variables, a cascade design was recommended. Despite data and model limitations, the framework enabled a reliable system analysis and economic evaluation, validated through tight confidence intervals in key process metrics, establishing the foundation for future applications of Bayesian methods in membrane-based processes.

Animal feed↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)

A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian parameter inference framework to generate a second posterior constrained ensemble coined a “calibrated physics ensemble,” or CPE. The CPE members are characterized by diverse parameter combinations and are, by definition, close to top-of-atmosphere radiative balance, and must broadly agree with numerous hydrologic, energy cycle and radiative forcing metrics simultaneously. Global observations of numerous cloud, environment, and radiation properties (provided by global satellite products) are crucial for CPE generation. The inference framework explicitly accounts for discrepancies (or biases) in satellite products during CPE generation. We demonstrate that product discrepancies strongly impact calibration of important model parameter settings (e.g., convective plume entrainment rates; fall speed for cloud ice). Structural improvements new to E3 are retained across CPE members (e.g., stratocumulus simulation). Notably, the framework improved the simulation of shallow cumulus and Amazon rainfall while not degrading radiation fields, an upgrade that neither default parameters nor Latin Hypercube parameter searching achieved. Analyses of the initial PPE suggested several parameters were unimportant for output variation. However, many “unimportant” parameters were needed for CPE generation, a result that brings to the forefront how parameter importance should be determined in PPEs. From the CPE, two diverse 45-dimensional parameter configurations are retained to generate radiatively-balanced, auto-tuned atmospheres that were used in two E3 submissions to CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining multi-field inflation using the SPHEREx all-sky survey power spectra

Abstract We investigate how well the SPHEREx all-sky survey can constrain local primordial non-Gaussianity beyond the parameterf NL using galaxy power spectra. We forecast joint constraints on the parametersf NL ,g NL andτ NL obtained assuming a simple two-field curvaton model of inflation. The parametersf NL andg NL characterise the squeezed limits of the primordial bispectrum and trispectrum respectively, and lead to a characteristic scale-dependence of the galaxy bias that increases out to arbitrarily large scales. Values of the parameterτ NL > (6/5f NL ) 2 cause the galaxy power spectrum to have a stochastic component which also increases out to arbitrarily large scales. Our MCMC forecasts indicate that SPHEREx can provide joint constraints on any two of the three parametersf NL ,g NL andτ NL . Due to strong degeneracies among these parameters, measurements of the galaxy power spectra alone may not be sufficient to jointly constrain all three. Constraints onf NL ,g NL andτ NL obtained from galaxy power spectrum observations depend on the modelling of underlying nuisance parameters. We study the robustness of our forecast constraints to modelling choices and note that even with relatively conservative modelling assumptions, SPHEREx galaxy power spectra can provide strong evidence of local non-Gaussianity, even if the particular values off NL andg NL cannot be measured precisely.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Indirect Measurement of the 23 Na(p, γ) 24 Mg Direct Capture Reaction Rate via ( 3 He,d) Spectroscopy

The cross section of the $^{23}\text{Na}(p,γ)^{24}\text{Mg}$ reaction is dominated by direct capture at low energies relevant for stellar burning. Such cross sections can be constrained using spectroscopic factors($C^2S$) or asymptotic normalization coefficients(ANCs) from transfer reactions. In this work, the $^{23}\text{Na}(^3\text{He},d)^{24}\text{Mg}$ reaction was measured at $E_{lab}=21$ MeV to extract spectroscopic factors for $^{24}\text{Mg}$ states with excitation energies in $E_x=7 - 12$ MeV using the Enge split-pole spectrograph at the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory. A new non-resonant astrophysical S factor and the direct capture reaction rate for the $^{23}\text{Na}(p,γ)$ reaction are calculated and presented based on this measurement. The new rate at $T<0.04$ GK is 43$\%$ smaller than in previous studies. Rigorous treatments of uncertainties are presented using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Finally, sources of uncertainties for computing the direct capture cross section are also discussed in detail.

electromagnetic moments↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum magic and multipartite entanglement in the structure of nuclei

Motivated by the Gottesman-Knill theorem, we present a detailed study of the quantum complexity of p -shell and s d -shell nuclei. Valence-space nuclear shell-model wave functions generated by the code are mapped to qubit registers using the Jordan-Wigner mapping (12 qubits for the p shell and 24 qubits for the s d shell), from which measures of the many-body entanglement ( n -tangles) and magic (nonstabilizerness) are determined. While exact evaluations of these measures are possible for nuclei with a modest number of active nucleons, Monte Carlo simulations are required for the more complex nuclei. The broadly applicable Pauli-string I ̂ Z ̂ exact (PSIZe) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is introduced to accelerate the evaluation of measures of magic in deformed nuclei (with hierarchical wave functions), by factors of ≈ 8 for some nuclei. Significant multinucleon entanglement is found in the s d shell, dominated by proton-neutron configurations, along with significant measures of magic. This is evident not only for the deformed states, but also for nuclei on the path to instability via regions of shape coexistence and level inversion. These results indicate that quantum-computing resources will accelerate precision simulations of such nuclei and beyond. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

𝑁-dimensional maximum-entropy tomography via particle sampling

We propose a modified maximum-entropy (MENT) algorithm for six-dimensional phase space tomography. The algorithm uses particle sampling and low-dimensional density estimation to approximate large sets of high-dimensional integrals in the original MENT formulation. We implement this approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques and demonstrate convergence of six-dimensional MENT on both synthetic and measured data.

Hoover, Austin [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Gaussian Random Field Sampling for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and the Karhunen–Loève Decomposition

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRFs) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods, such as those based on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), often reduce the dimensionality of the sample space at the cost of accuracy of inference. Other approaches, such that those based on Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions, offer sample space dimensionality reduction but sacrifice GRF representation accuracy and ergodicity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and are computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. The proposed method integrates the dimensionality reduction capabilities of KL expansions with the scalability of SPDE-based sampling, thereby providing a robust, unified framework for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) that is scalable and accurate, preserves ergodicity, and offers dimensionality reduction of the sample space. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from the geometric multigrid hierarchy. By constructing a hierarchical decomposition that maintains the covariance structure across the levels in the hierarchy, the approach enables efficient coarse-to-fine sampling while ensuring that all samples are drawn from the desired distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a benchmark subsurface flow problem, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. Furthermore, our proposed technique is more efficient and accurate and displays better convergence properties than existing methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

Gaussian random fields↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can the angular scale of cosmic homogeneity be used as a cosmological test?

Abstract In standard cosmology, the cosmic homogeneity scale is the transition scale above which the patterns arising from non-uniformities – such as groups and clusters of galaxies, voids, and filaments – become indistinguishable from a random distribution of sources. Recently, different groups have investigated the feasibility of using such a scale as a cosmological test and arrived at different conclusions. In this paper, we complement and extend these studies by exploring the evolution of the spatial ( $$R_{\textrm{H}}$$ R H ) and angular ( $$\theta _{\textrm{H}}$$ θ H ) homogeneity scales with redshift, assuming a spatially flat, $$\varLambda $$ Λ -Cold Dark Matter universe and linear cosmological perturbation theory. We confirm previous results concerning the non-monotonicity of $$R_{\textrm{H}}$$ R H with the matter density parameter $$\varOmega _{\textrm{m0}}$$ Ω m0 but also show that it exhibits a monotonical behavior with the Hubble constant $$H_{0}$$ H 0 within a large redshift interval. More importantly, we find that, for $$z \gtrsim 0.6$$ z ≳ 0.6 , $$\theta _{\textrm{H}}$$ θ H presents a monotonical behavior with $$\varOmega _{\textrm{m0}}$$ Ω m0 , as well as for $$H_0$$ H 0 the entire redshift interval analyzed. We find also that the angular homogeneity scale is sensitive to $$H_{0}$$ H 0 , especially at higher redshifts. Using the currently available $$\theta _{\textrm{H}}$$ θ H measurements, we illustrate the constraints on the $$\varOmega _{\textrm{m0}}$$ Ω m0 – $$H_{0}$$ H 0 plane through a MCMC analysis and show the feasibility of using the angular homogeneity scale as a new, model-independent way to constrain cosmological parameters.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

pnnl/MCRASTA

McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Fichera, Marissa [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2026

mvBayes

SAND2026-16980O mvBayes implements multivariate Bayesian regression using MATLAB and decomposes a multivariate or functional response into components based on a user-specified orthogonal basis. This allows for independent modeling of each component with any chosen univariate Bayesian regression model. This tool includes methods for prediction and visualization, facilitating the evaluation of Bayesian surrogate models through the application of Bayesian theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, J. Derek [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), L↗