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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Who is benefiting from the dramatic decline in U.S. cancer mortality? Place-based evidence of disparities in rates of improvement

After decades of increasing cancer mortality, U.S. rates declined from 1991 to 2019, a 32% decrease. we investigated rates of cancer mortality improvement across 2954 counties and selected characteristics associated with mortality improvements. Data was 21,381,009 county-level neoplasm deaths gleaned from death certificates via CDC WONDER. Analytical techniques included GIS and Moran’s I, OLS, GWR models, and trend comparisons. Counties with the greatest improvement (reduction) in cancer mortality tended to be coastal, higher-income, metropolitan locations. OLS model (R 2 = 0.65) indicated that greatest improvements were observed in counties with higher initial mortality ($\beta =.32$) closely followed by percent urban ($\beta =.31$) and median household income ($\beta =.16$). Whereas percent Black residents ($\beta =-.06$), and percent with education beyond high school ($\beta =-.10$) was less associated on outcomes. Highest income counties were the first to experience improvement in cancer mortality, the highest rates of mortality decline, and the greatest reduction in excess deaths. Even though there was significant improvement in cancer mortality nationally, there were variations in the degree of improvement linked to county location, income, and urbanisation. These results underlie the need to expand place-based initiatives designed to advance cancer health and more equitable improvements in cancer mortality outcomes.

developing world↗
DOE OSTI2021

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests

Summary The relative importance of tree mortality risk factors remains unknown, especially in diverse tropical forests where species may vary widely in their responses to particular conditions. We present a new framework for quantifying the importance of mortality risk factors and apply it to compare 19 risks on 31 203 trees (1977 species) in 14 one‐year periods in six tropical forests. We defined a condition as a risk factor for a species if it was associated with at least a doubling of mortality rate in univariate analyses. For each risk, we estimated prevalence (frequency), lethality (difference in mortality between trees with and without the risk) and impact (‘excess mortality’ associated with the risk, relative to stand‐level mortality). The most impactful risk factors were light limitation and crown/trunk loss; the most prevalent were light limitation and small size; the most lethal were leaf damage and wounds. Modes of death (standing, broken and uprooted) had limited links with previous conditions and mortality risk factors. We provide the first ranking of importance of tree‐level mortality risk factors in tropical forests. Future research should focus on the links between these risks, their climatic drivers and the physiological processes to enable mechanistic predictions of future tree mortality.

Zuleta, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

spruce decline↗
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, and vapor pressure deficit on seawater-induced tree mortality

We report increasing seawater exposure is killing coastal trees globally, with expectations of accelerating mortality with rising sea levels. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on seawater-induced tree mortality is uncertain. We examined the mechanisms of seawater-induced mortality under varying climate scenarios using a photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost optimization model validated against observations in a mature stand of Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees in the Pacific Northwest, USA, that were dying from recent seawater exposure. The simulations matched well with observations of photosynthesis, transpiration, nonstructural carbohydrates concentrations, leaf water potential, the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, and stand-level mortality rates. The simulations suggest that seawater-induced mortality could decrease by ~16.7% with increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels due to reduced risk of carbon starvation. Conversely, rising VPD could increase mortality by ~5.6% because of increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Across all scenarios, seawater-induced mortality was driven by hydraulic failure in the first two years after seawater exposure began, with carbon starvation becoming more important in subsequent years. Changing CO 2 and climate appear unlikely to have a significant impact on coastal tree mortality under rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Importance of Addressing Disagreements Between Nominal and Effective Treatments During Bat Mortality Minimization Validation Studies

As the wind energy industry grows, so too does our need for effective and low-cost bat mortality minimization solutions. Despite knowledge gaps in our understanding of what drives bats to collide with spinning turbines, minimization solutions have shown success during validation studies. Curtailment has been consistently effective, reducing bat mortality from 33%-79%, depending on the curtailment scenario and species present. Several validation studies have demonstrated deterrent solutions, specifically ultrasonic deterrents, to be effective, but overall, more variable compared to curtailment solutions. Further, a study combining curtailment with ultrasonic deterrents produced encouraging results, finding that adding ultrasonic deterrents to turbines that were designated to curtail, significantly reduced mortality rates compared to curtailment only turbines. Despite positive results, the strength of inference achieved with validation studies is limited by methodological constraints associated with appropriately assigning fatalities to treatments. Because of the temporal separation between when a bat collides with a turbine and when it is discovered during a ground-based carcass survey, we must assign carcasses to a treatment that ran during the prior night(s). This process may introduce errors at multiple stages. First, for studies that rotate treatments among turbines, mortality surveyors must be confident that carcasses are 'fresh' such that mortalities are correctly assigned to the treatment from the previous night(s). Second, we must reconcile any misalignments between how we assign treatments and how we implement treatments (e.g., turbines assigned with a deterrent treatment may be implemented as another treatment when deterrent devices are not operating as designed). Finally, for curtailment solutions, it is critical to recognize that measured effects are a function of not just the treatment as implemented but the proportion of the night the treatment is realized (e.g., if wind speeds are greater than the curtailment treatment cut-in speed for the entire night, we cannot expect there to me any differences in mortality reduction relative to control turbines). Using a dataset collected between June and October 2017, that rotated 3 treatments (Deterrent Only, 5 m/s Curtail only, and 5 m/s Curtail & Deterrent) and 1 control condition across 16 turbines each night, we explored the importance and implications of accounting for potential errors in assigning fatalities to treatments. We present preliminary results comparing the mortality associated with error-corrected treatments and control conditions highlighting how the measured effect of a treatment (mortality) greatly depends on site specific implementation.

bats↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape

Abstract Fire is a critical ecological process to the forests of the Southern Appalachians. Where fire was excluded from forest types that historically burned frequently, unanticipated changes can occur when fire is reintroduced. For example, the development of new fuel characteristics can change the patterns of fire mortality and associated ecological responses. To test the fire effects of delayed fire mortality (mortality initiated by fire that occurs subsequent to the fire year) in the Southern Appalachians, USA, we developed a fire‐effects model using both field studies and remote sensing. We then simulated these effects at a landscape scale to estimate broader ecological effects. Fire‐effects models that accounted for delayed mortality increased landscape biomass removed annually (~23%) and increased the number of sites with high light conditions (leaf area index < 4) when compared to simulations that only account for immediate mortality. While delayed mortality occurred across species and age classes, it was especially prevalent among older trees (>100 years old) and fire‐resistant species ( Quercus spp.). Overall, regeneration (trees <20 years old) changed very little, even with the inclusion of delayed mortality. This evidence suggests that, even when accounting for delayed mortality, individual fires are unlikely to shift the landscape composition toward the conditions of forests prior to fire exclusion and may even increase mesophication long term due to the loss of overstory dominant xeric trees.

Robbins, Zachary J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warming and elevated CO 2 alter tamarack C fluxes, growth and mortality: evidence for heat stress-related C starvation in the absence of water stress

Climate warming is increasing the frequency of climate-induced tree mortality events. While drought combined with heat is considered the primary cause of this mortality, little is known about whether moderately high temperatures alone can induce mortality, or whether rising CO 2 would prevent mortality at high growth temperatures. In this study, we grew tamarack ( Larix laricina ) under ambient (400 p.p.m.) and elevated (750 p.p.m.) CO 2 concentrations combined with ambient, ambient +4 °C and ambient +8 °C growth temperatures to investigate whether high growth temperatures lead to carbon (C) limitations and mortality. Growth at +8 °C led to 40% mortality in the ambient CO 2 (8TAC) treatment, but no mortality in the elevated CO 2 treatment. Thermal acclimation of respiration led to similar leaf C balances across the warming treatments, despite a lack of photosynthetic acclimation. Photosynthesis was stimulated under elevated CO 2 , increasing seedling growth, but not leaf C concentrations. However, growth and foliar C concentrations were lowest in the +8 °C treatments, even with elevated CO 2 . Dying 8TAC seedlings had lower needle C concentrations and lower ratios of photosynthesis to respiration than healthy 8TAC seedlings, indicating that C limitations were likely the cause of seedling mortality under high growth temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mortality correlates with tree functional traits across a wood density gradient in the Central Amazon

Introduction: Understanding the mechanisms of tree mortality in tropical ecosystems remains challenging, in part due to the high diversity of tree species and the inherently stochastic nature of mortality. Plant functional traits offer a mechanistic link between plant physiology and performance, yet their ability to predict growth and mortality remains poorly understood. Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Methods: Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Traits of the individual trees were related to stand-level growth and mortality rates collected periodically over 30 years from nearby permanent inventory plots. Results: Higher wood density was associated with smaller leaf size, lower foliar base cations, lower stem water content and sapwood fraction, in agreement with the fast-slow plant economics spectrum. Lower wood density was associated with more acquisitive characteristics with greater hydraulic capacity and foliar nutrient concentrations, correlating with greater growth and mortality rates. Discussion: Our results show that lower wood density is part of a coordinated suite of traits linked to high resource acquisition, fast growth, and increased mortality risk, providing a functional framework for predicting species performance and forest vulnerability under future climate stress.

demographics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

Atmohspheric chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk of Mortality in Family Members of Men Seeking Fertility Assessment

Objective: To assess mortality in family members of men seeking fertility assessment. Subfertility serves as a biomarker for overall somatic health, and poor semen quality is associated with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from chronic conditions. However, it is unclear if these risks extend to family members of men with low sperm count. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Family members, up to third-degree relatives, of men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort who underwent a semen analysis as part of a fertility assessment 1996–2017. Relatives of men with a recorded total sperm count who lived in Utah for ≥1 year 1904–2017 were included in the analysis (N = 22,280 families). Exposure: Individuals were classified by family membership. Families were classified as relatives of azoospermic (0M), oligozoospermic (<39M), or normozoospermic (≥39M) men. The average total sperm count of the proband (male relative) with fertility assessment was also included as a continuous exposure measure. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk by sex, age, and degree of relation: first-, second-, and third-degree. Cox proportional hazard models were used to test the association between fertility classification and mortality, controlling for sex, race/ethnicity, and birth year. Results: A total of 666,437 relatives of men with fertility assessment (N deaths = 183,974) were included in the analysis. Relative to normozoospermia families, all-cause mortality risk increased in oligozoospermia families (hazard ratio [HR] oligozoospermia , 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.05). Close relatives, first- (HR oligozoospermia , 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07–1.28) and second-degree relatives (HR azoospermia , 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.20; HR oligozoospermia , 1.05; 95% CI,1.01–1.09), of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men had the highest all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk, including death attributed to cardiovascular disease or congenital birth conditions. Conclusion: Our results suggest that familial all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk differ by fertility phenotype. Families of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men showed significantly increased risk, particularly for close relatives. This study provides further evidence that shared genetic and/or environmental factors could influence both fertility and somatic health.

Male fertility↗
DOE OSTI2022

Context matters: Natural tree mortality can lead to neighbor growth release or suppression

Where competition suppresses tree growth, mortality of adjacent trees can release the surviving individuals, leading to a growth increase. However, primary forests are complicated systems, where trees interact in both competitive and facilitative ways mediated by their size, species, and the broad ecological context in which they grow. Thus, the magnitude and even direction of growth responses to the mortality of nearby trees may vary, which has implications for our understanding of community- and ecosystem-level dynamics following mortality events. Unfortunately, although many studies focus on the impacts of light availability and general crowding on tree growth, we know relatively little about the effects of naturally occurring mortality events on the growth of neighboring trees. To address this issue, we used 40 years of data from 15 permanent forest-monitoring plots in Mt Rainier old-growth forests, comparing observed to expected radial growth of individual trees following the death of their nearest neighbor. Although we found evidence of a general growth-release response, this was not universal among all trees, with small trees in particular exhibiting growth suppression (rather than release) following neighboring tree mortality. In addition to small size, growth-suppression was more likely if the dead neighbor was the same species, consistent with facilitative effects as mediated through belowground networks. At the stand level, the average growth release after nearest neighbor mortality was greatest in low-density stands with large trees, with elevation and community composition also playing a role. Decades more monitoring could reveal how long growth release (or suppression) is sustained by individual trees following neighboring mortality events, as well as potential response lags and the role of species identity in determining whether interactions with neighbors are competitive or facilitative. Nonetheless, our results suggest that although mature trees have competitive effects on their larger neighbors, they also have an important role in supporting the ingrowth of small trees. More broadly, we demonstrate that the nature of interactions between individual neighboring trees is highly context dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought

Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, in this study, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one- out cross-validation R 2 = 0.54), which allows for estimates of annual biomass mortality patterns at 30 m resolution. Subsequent spatial analysis showed substantial fine-scale heterogeneity of forest mortality patterns, largely driven by drought intensity and ecosystem properties related to plant water use such as forest deciduousness and topography. Highly deciduous forest patches demonstrated much lower mortality sensitivity to drought stress than less deciduous forest patches after elevation was controlled. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution remote sensing to “fingerprint” forest mortality and the significant role of ecosystem heterogeneity in forest biomass resistance to drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Processes and mechanisms of coastal woody-plant mortality

Observations of woody plant mortality in coastal ecosystems are globally widespread, but the overarching processes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This knowledge deficiency, combined with rapidly changing water levels, storm surges, atmospheric CO 2 , and vapor pressure deficit, creates large predictive uncertainty regarding how coastal ecosystems will respond to global change. Here we synthesize the literature on the mechanisms that underlie coastal woody-plant mortality, with the goal of producing a testable hypothesis framework. The key emergent mechanisms underlying mortality include hypoxic, osmotic, and ionic-driven reductions in whole-plant hydraulic conductance and photosynthesis that ultimately drive the coupled processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. The relative importance of these processes in driving mortality, their order of progression, and their degree of coupling depends on the characteristics of the anomalous water exposure, on topographic effects, and on taxa-specific variation in traits and trait acclimation. Greater inundation exposure could accelerate mortality globally; however, the interaction of changing inundation exposure with elevated CO 2 , drought, and rising vapor pressure deficit could influence mortality likelihood. Models of coastal forests that incorporate the frequency and duration of inundation, the role of climatic drivers, and the processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation can yield improved estimates of inundation-induced woody-plant mortality.

salinity↗
NASA NTRS2016

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called ''dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Conifer Mortality↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

projection↗
NASA NTRS2022

Present-Day and Future PM 2.5 and O 3 -Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the EVAv6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015–2050) global PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM 2.5 -related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O 3 -related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality leads to 5.3–5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM 2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM 2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM 2.5 -related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Premature mortality↗