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Fluctuations in stmospheric angular momentum (AAM) are examined in a three-year simulation of the perpetual-January climate, performed with of a version of the UCLA general circulation model which contains no tropical, Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO).
Variations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) are examined in a three-year simulation of the large-scale atmosphere with perpetual January forcing. The simulation is performed with a version of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) general circulation model that contains no tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In addition, the results of three shorter experiments with no topography are analyzed. The three-year standard topography run contains no significant intraseasonal AAM periodicity in the tropics, consistent with the lack of the MJO, but produces a robust, 42-day AAM oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics. The model tropics undergoes a barotropic, zonally symmetric oscillation, driven by an exchange of mass with the NH extratropics. No intraseasonal periodicity is found in the average tropical latent heating field, indicating that the model oscillation is dynamically rather than thermodynamically driven. The no-mountain runs fail to produce an intraseasonal AAM oscillation, consistent with a topographic origin for the NH extratropical oscillation in the standard model. The spatial patterns of the oscillation in the 500-mb height field, and the relationship of the extratropical oscillation to intraseasonal variations in the tropics, will be discussed in Part 2 of this study.
The evolution of moist static energy (MSE) is widely used to understand the organization and propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Past studies, largely based on reanalysis or short-term observations, have highlighted humidity as the dominant driver of MJO evolution. Using 14 years of bias-corrected radiosonde observations from the Department of Energy – Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (DOE-ARM) Facility site at Manus in the western Pacific, we show that temperature has a significant influence on the vertically-integrated MSE during MJO’s transition from suppressed to active phase. Specifically, during the transition phase in boreal winter (spring), ~48% (~31%) of the vertically-integrated MSE anomalies are attributed to temperature anomalies. This temperature contribution is confined to the mid- and upper troposphere, where temperature and MSE anomalies exhibit a strong correlation. These findings have important implications for MJO theory and provide new constraints for evaluating MJO transition processes in models.
Extreme rainfall and flooding, driven by a powerful atmospheric river (AR) and a persistent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), hit Southern California in February 2024 during the 2023–2024 El Niño, affecting over 10 million people. ARs are key contributors to extreme rainfall and flooding along the U.S. West Coast. Although the AR-MJO link has been documented, its spatio-temporal variability remains a major forecasting and risk-management challenge. Combining precipitation, stream gauge and demographic data, we quantify the physical drivers and population exposure to this extreme event. Leveraging a Lagrangian MJO precipitation tracking algorithm, we unravel the multiscale interactions responsible for the AR’s development. El Niño favored a large, long-lived MJO that interacted with the North Pacific Jet (NPJ) over more than three weeks. The MJO convective outflow modulated the NPJ by inducing negative potential vorticity advection along the tropopause. The ensuing NPJ extension and acceleration induced explosive cyclogenesis, whose AR-driven moisture transport resulted in extreme rainfall.
SAND2025-14273O MJO CP Tensor Decompositions is a Python tool for computing canonical polyadic (CP) decompositions of MERRA2 observational data to understand the onset and evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.
Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.
The spectral character of tropical convection is investigated in an 11-yr record of outgoing longwave radiation from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to identify interaction with the tropical circulation. Along the equator in the eastern hemisphere, the space-time spectrum of convection possesses a broad peak at wavenumbers 1-3 and eastward periods of 35-95 days. Significantly broader than the dynamical signal of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), this quasi-discrete convective signal is associatd with a large-scale anomaly that propagates across and modulates time mean or 'climatological convection' over the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Outside that region the convective signal is small, even though, under amplified conditions, coherence can be found east of the date line and in the subtropics. Having a zonal scale of approximately wavenumber 2, anomalous convection propagates eastward at some 5 m/s and suppresses as well as reinforces climatological in the eastern hemisphere. The convective signal amplifies to a seasonal maximum near vernal equinox and, to a weaker degree, again near autumnal equinox, when climatological convection and warm sea surface temperature (SST) cross the equator. Contemporaneous records of motion from European Center for medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses and tropospheric-mean temperature from Microwave Sounding Unit reveal an anomalous component of the tropical circulation that coexists with the convective signal and embodies many of the established properties of the MJO. In the eastern hemisphere, subtropical Rossby gyres and zonal Kelvin structure along the equator flank the convective anomaly as it tracks eastward, giving the anomalous circulation to form of a 'forced response.' In the western hemisphere, the dynamical signal is composed chiefly of wavenumber-1 Kelvin structure, which as the form of a 'propagating response' that is excited in and radiates away from anomalous convection at some 10 m/s. Kelvin structure comprising the propagating response appears in 850-mb and 200-mb zonal winds even when the convective signal is absent, albeit with much smaller amplitude. In contrast, the signal in 1000-mb convergence appears only when accompanied by anomalous convection, which suggests that convergence in the boundary layer is instrumental in achieving strong interaction with the convective pattern.
Interaction between the large-scale circulation and the convective pattern is investigated in a coupled system governed by the linearized primitive equations. Convection is represented in terms of two components of heating: A 'climatological component' is prescribed stochastically to represent convection that is maintained by fixed distributions of land and sea and sea surface temperature (SST). An 'induced component' is defined in terms of the column-integrated moisture flux convergence to represent convection that is produced through feedback with the circulation. Each component describes the envelope organizing mesoscale convective activity. As SST on the equator is increased, induced heating amplifies in the gravest zonal wavenumbers at eastward frequencies, where positive feedback offsets dissipation. Under barotropic stratification, a critical SST of 29.5 C results in positive feedback exactly cancelling dissipation in wavenumber 1 for an eastward phase speed of 6 m/s. Sympathetic interaction between the circulation and the induced heating is the basis for 'frictional wave-Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK)', which is distinguished from classical wave-CISK by rendering the gravest zonal dimensions most unstable. Under baroclinic stratification, the coupled system exhibits similar behavior. The critical SST is only 26.5 C for conditions representative of equinox, but in excess of 30 C for conditions representative of solstice. Having the form of an unsteady Walker circulation, the disturbance produced by frictional wave-CISK compares favorably with the observed life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). SST above the critical value produces an amplifying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric westerlies and is positively correlated with temperature and surface convergence. Conversely, SST below the critical value produces a decaying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric easterlies and is nearly in quadrature with temperature and surface convergence. While sharing essential features with the MJO in the Eastern Hemisphere, frictional wave-CISK does not explain observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere, where the convective signal is largely absent. Comprised of Kelvin structure with the same frequency, observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere can be understood as a propagating response that is excited in and radiates away from the fluctuation of convection in the Eastern Hemisphere.
A 3-dimensional model was developed to support mechanistic studies. The model solves the global primitive equations in isentropic coordinates, which directly characterize diabatic processes forcing the Brewer-Dobson circulation of the middle atmosphere. It's numerical formulation is based on Hough harmonics, which partition horizontal motion into its rotational and divergent components. These computational features, along with others, enable 3D integrations to be performed practically on RISC computer architecture, on which they can be iterated to support mechanistic studies. The model conserves potential vorticity quite accurately under adiabatic conditions. Forced by observed tropospheric structure, in which integrations are anchored, the model generates a diabatic circulation that is consistent with satellite observations of tracer behavior and diabatic cooling rates. The model includes a basic but fairly complete treatment of gas-phase photochemistry that represents some 20 chemical species and 50 governing reactions with diurnally-varying shortwave absorption. The model thus provides a reliable framework to study transport and underlying diabatic processes, which can then be compared against chemical and dynamical structure observed and in GCM integrations. Integrations with the Langley GCM were performed to diagnose feedback between simulated convection and the tropical circulation. These were studied in relation to tropospheric properties controlling moisture convergence and environmental conditions supporting deep convection, for comparison against mechanistic integrations of wave CISK that successfully reproduce the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) of the tropical circulation. These comparisons were aimed at identifying and ultimately improving aspects of the convective simulation, with the objective of recovering a successful simulation of the MJO in the Langley GCM, behavior that should be important to budgets of upper-tropospheric water vapor and chemical species.
The predictability of the 1997 and 1998 south Asian summer monsoon winds is examined from an ensemble of 10 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture, The simulations are started in September 1996 so that they have lost all memory of the atmospheric initial conditions for the periods of interest. The model simulations show that the 1998 monsoon is considerably more predictable than the 1997 monsoon. During May and June of 1998 the predictability of the low-level wind anomalies is largely associated with a local response to anomalously warm Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability increases late in the season (July and August) as a result of the strengthening of the anomalous Walker circulation and the associated development of easterly low level wind anomalies that extend westward across India and the Arabian Sea. During these months the model is also the most skillful with the observations showing a similar late-season westward extension of the easterly CD wind anomalies. The model shows little predictability or skill in the low level winds over southeast Asia during, 1997. Predictable wind anomalies do occur over the western Indian Ocean and Indonesia, however, over the Indian Ocean they are a response to SST anomalies that were wind driven and they show no skill. The reduced predictability in the low level winds during 1997 appears to be the result of a weaker (compared with 1998) simulated anomalous Walker circulation, while the reduced skill is associated with pronounced intraseasonal activity that is not well captured by the model. Remarkably, the model does produce an ensemble mean Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) response that is approximately in phase with (though weaker than) the observed MJ0 anomalies. This is consistent with the idea that SST coupling may play an important role in the MJO.
The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,
Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.
Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) has been synoptically mapped via an algorithm that rejects small-scale undersampled variance, which is intrinsic to asymptotic measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction (eta)(sub c) (T < than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in moist air from lower levels. Histograms of UTH and eta(sub c) have been applied to construct the joint probability density function, which quantifies the relationship between these properties. The expected value of UTH in convective regions is strongly correlated to the expected value of eta(sub c). In ensembles of asymptotic samples, the correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] exceeds 0.80. As these expectations reflect the most likely values, the strong correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] indicates that the large-scale organization of UTH is strongly shaped by convective pumping of moisture from lower levels. The same relationship holds for unsteady fields - even though, instantaneously, those fields are comprised almost entirely of small-scale convective structure. The spatial autocorrelation of UTH, constructed at high resolution from overpass data along ascending and descending tracks of the orbit, is limited to only a couple of degrees in the horizontal. This mirrors the spatial autocorrelation of eta(sub c), which likewise operates coherently on short scales. The short correlation scale of UTH, which reflects the scale of individual convective systems, is comparable to the spacing of retrievals from MLS. These scales are undersampled in the asynoptic measurements. Despite their prevalence, the mapping algorithm described above successfully recovers synoptic behavior operating coherently on large scales. It reveals eastward migration of anomalous UTH from the Indian ocean to the central Pacific, in association with the modulation of convection by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
Tropical and subtropical tropospheric ozone are important radiatively active species, with particularly large effects in the upper third of the troposphere. Temporal variability of O3 has proved difficult to simulate day by day in process models. Thus, individual roles of lightning, biomass burning, and other pollution in providing precursor NO(x), radicals, and chain carriers (CO, hydrocarbons) remain unquantified by simulation, and it is theoretically reasonable that individual roles are magnified by a joint synergy. We use wavelet analysis and Burg-algorithm maximum entropy spectral analyses to describe time-scales and correlation of ozone with proxies for processes controlling its concentration. Our empirical studies link time variations apparent in several datasets: the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network stations (Nairobi, Fiji), and auxiliary series with power to explain ozone-determining processes, with some interpretation based on the TTO (Tropical Tropospheric Ozone) product derived from TOMS (the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer). The auxiliary series are The OTD/LIS(Optical Transient Detector/Lightning Imaging Sensor) measurements of the lightning NO(x) source, the OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation)measurement of high-topped clouds, and standard meteorological variables from the United States NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and Data Assimilation Office analyses. Concentrating on equatorial ozone, we compare the statistical evidence on the variability of tropospheric ozone. Important variations occur on approximately two-week, two-month (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and annual scales, and relations with OLR suggest controls associated with continental clouds. Hence we are now using the Lightning Imaging Sensor data set to indicate NO(x) sources. We report initial results defining relative roles of the process mentioned affecting O3 using their covariance properties.
In this study, the relationship between tropical convection and the meridional convergence of zonal momentum flux in the tropical upper troposphere is investigated using NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation data and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis wind data. In particular, a variety of correlation coefficients are calculated between the data sets, both of which are filtered to isolate disturbances with frequencies and wavenumbers consistent with the Madden-Julian oscillation. The results show regions of significant correlation during each season, with the magnitude and area covered by significant correlation coefficients varying with season. Furthermore, it is found that the correlation structures look very similar to theoretical calculations of the atmospheric response to a region of tropical heating. This result suggests that tropical waves, in particular mixed Rossby-gravity waves, play an important role in the meridional transport zonal momentum into the deep tropical upper troposphere. Finally, these findings have implications to the generation of rising motion near the tropical tropopause, which in turn has ramifications for vertical moisture transport and tropopause cirrus formation.
While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on subseasonal time scales (approximately 2 weeks to 2 months) has been slow. In this talk I will highlight some of the recent progress that has been made to improve forecasts on subseasonal time scales and outline the challenges that we face both from an observational and modeling perspective. The talk will be based primarily on the results and conclusions of a recent NASA-sponsored workshop that focused on the subseasonal prediction problem. One of the key conclusions of that workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks, and that much of that predictability is currently untapped. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric phenomena such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American pattern, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. I will end the talk by summarizing the recommendations and plans that have been put forward for accelerating progress on the subseasonal prediction problem.
This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.