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NASA NTRS1990

PROMIS series. Volume 8: Midlatitude ground magnetograms

This is the eighth in a series of volumes pertaining to the Polar Region Outer Magnetosphere International Study (PROMIS). This volume contains 24 hour stack plots of 1-minute average, H and D component, ground magnetograms for the period March 10 through June 16, 1986. Nine midlatitude ground stations were selected from the UCLA magnetogram data base that was constructed from all available digitized magnetogram stations. The primary purpose of this publication is to allow users to define universal times and onset longitudes of magnetospheric substorms.

Fairfield, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Correlation of the CME Productivity of Solar Active Regions with Measures of their Global Nonpotentiality from Vector Magnetograms: Baseline Results

From conventional magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal images, it is known qualitatively that the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic explosions from sunspot active regions in which the magnetic field is globally strongly sheared and twisted from its minimum-energy potential configuration. In this paper, we present measurements from active-region vector magnetograms that begin to quantify the dependence of the CME productivity of an active region on the global nonpotentiality of its magnetic field. From each of 17 magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we obtain a measure of the size of the active region (the magnetic flux content, phi) and three different measures of the global nonpotentiality (L(sub SS), the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line; I(sub N), the net electric current arching from one polarity to the other; and alpha = muI(subN/phi), a flux-normalized measure of the field twist).

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Recovering Photospheric Velocities from Vector Magnetograms by using a Three-Dimensional, Fully Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Model

We introduce a numerical simulation method for recovering the photospheric velocity field from the vector magnetograms. The traditional method is local correlation tracking (LCT) which is based on measuring the relative displacements of features in blocks of pixels between successive white-light images or magnetograms. Within this method, there are a variety of implementations. One of recently developed implementations is induction local correlation tracking (ILCT) as described by Welsch et al. (2004). They employ the normal component of magnetic induction equation as a constraint to assure consistent solutions. Our numerical method uses the fully three-dimensional MHD equations to recover the photospheric velocity field with individual vector magnetograms. We compare our method to the ILCT method using NOAA AR8210 as an example. The differences and similarities are discussed in detail.

Wang, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Barghouty, Nasser↗
NASA NTRS1971

Analog video magnetograms in real time.

Description of a video differential photometer which is the result of an attempt to adapt television technology to the task of producing an electronic equivalent of the photographic subtraction technique. Advantages of electronic subtraction are potentially greater field sensitivity, immediate availability of the subtracted magnetograms (virtually in real time), and greater versatility in combining and comparing image data. Commercial television equipment was used in construction of the apparatus. All video subtraction, averaging, and other processing is done in analog form. The final magnetogram is displayed on an ordinary television monitor.

Smithson, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The mean photospheric magnetic field from solar magnetograms Comparisons with the interplanetary magnetic field.

Large-scale averages of daily solar magnetograms have been compared by cross-correlation with the interplanetary magnetic sector pattern during a 2.5 yr interval. A significant correlation was found at a lag of about 4.5 days, with the amplitude of the correlation depending on the area included in the magnetogram averages. The highest correlation was found when an area of one quarter of the solar disk was used, which is consistent with the idea that the photospheric features which are to be associated with the interplanetary sector pattern are large scale features.

Scherrer, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The use of ground magnetograms to time the onset of magnetospheric substorms

A critical review of magnetospheric substorm timing techniques is presented. Attention is given to substorm timing with auroral zone magnetograms, substorm onset timing with midlatitude magnetograms, multiple onset substorms, and a phenomenological model for multiple onset substorms. Emphasis is placed on some pitfalls that have led some investigators to err in substorm onset determinations. In particular, multiple onset substorms appear to account for many of the reported discrepancies in substorm timing. It is suggested that present idealized models of substorm morphology must be modified to include the multiple onset substorms.

Mcpherron, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Acquisition and Reduction Procedures for MOF Doppler-Magnetograms

Defects in the first magneto-optical filter (MOF) magnetograms, particularly the problem of the apparent contamination between velocity and magnetic fields, are discussed. It is found that a correct acquisition and reduction procedure gives cleaner results. A vector magnetograph is suggested. The vector field at coronal levels is calculated, using one MOF longitudinal magnetogram.

Cacciani, Alessandro↗
NASA NTRS1993

Determination of coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograms

This report covers technical progress during the second year of the contract entitled 'Determination of Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms,' NASW-4728, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period January 1, 1993 to December 31, 1993. Under this contract SAIC has conducted research into the determination of coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograms, including the development and application of algorithms to determine force-free coronal fields above selected observations of active regions. The contract began on June 30, 1992 and has a completion date of December 31, 1994. This contract is a continuation of work started in a previous contract, NASW-4571, which covered the period November 15, 1990 to December 14, 1991. During this second year we have concentrated on studying additional active regions and in using the estimated coronal magnetic fields to compare to coronal features inferred from observations.

Mikic, Zoran↗
NASA NTRS1995

Tracking magnetogram proper motions by multiscale regularization

Long uninterrupted sequences of solar magnetograms from the global oscillations network group (GONG) network and from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite will provide the opportunity to study the proper motions of magnetic features. The possible use of multiscale regularization, a scale-recursive estimation technique which begins with a prior model of how state variables and their statistical properties propagate over scale. Short magnetogram sequences are analyzed with the multiscale regularization algorithm as applied to optical flow. This algorithm is found to be efficient, provides results for all the spatial scales spanned by the data and provides error estimates for the solutions. It is found that the algorithm is less sensitive to evolutionary changes than correlation tracking.

Jones, Harrison P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Determination of Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms

During the course of the present contract we developed an 'evolutionary technique' for the determination of force-free coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograph observations. The method can successfully generate nonlinear force- free fields (with non-constant-a) that match vector magnetograms. We demonstrated that it is possible to determine coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, and we applied it to vector magnetograms of active regions. We have also studied theoretical models of coronal fields that lead to disruptions. Specifically, we have demonstrated that the determination of force-free fields from exact boundary data is a well-posed mathematical problem, by verifying that the computed coronal field agrees with an analytic force-free field when boundary data for the analytic field are used; demonstrated that it is possible to determine active-region coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, by computing the coronal field above active region 5747 on 20 October 1989, AR6919 on 15 November 1991, and AR7260 on 18 August 1992, from data taken with the Stokes Polarimeter at Mees Solar Observatory, University of Hawaii; started to analyze active region 7201 on 19 June 1992 using measurements made with the Advanced Stokes Polarimeter at NSO/Sac Peak; investigated the effects of imperfections in the photospheric data on the computed coronal magnetic field; documented the coronal field structure of AR5747 and compared it to the morphology of footpoint emission in a flare, showing that the 'high- pressure' H-alpha footpoints are connected by coronal field lines; shown that the variation of magnetic field strength along current-carrying field lines is significantly different from the variation in a potential field, and that the resulting near-constant area of elementary flux tubes is consistent with observations; begun to develop realistic models of coronal fields which can be used to study flare trigger mechanisms; demonstrated that magnetic nonequilibrium can disrupt sheared coronal arcades, and that helmet streamers can disrupt, leading to coronal mass ejections. Our model has significantly extended the realism with which the coronal magnetic field can be inferred from actual observations. In a subsequent contract awarded by NASA, we have continued to apply and improve the evolutionary technique, to study the physical properties of active regions, and to develop theoretical models of magnetic fields.

Mikic, Zoran↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Role of Magnetograms in Testing Models of Coronal Mass Ejections

A general review of current and future magnetographic capabilities is presented with emphasis on how they address observational predictions of CME models (e.g., the model/observation matrix developed in the SHINE 2000 workshop). Existing line-of-sight magnetographs can observe certain structural and kinematic properties of CME source regions when they are on the visible disk. These include polarity configuration, location and structure of the magnetic inversion line, proper motions of magnetic elements, and time variation of flux. Additional chromospheric magnetograms provide information on how the field spreads with height and, if properly sequenced with photospheric magnetograms, can determine whether flux is emerging or submerging. Vector magnetographs can provide information about currents and magnetic shear but will only begin to attain the spatial and temporal coverage appropriate to CMEs with the advent of the SOLIS vector spectromagnetograph and, hopefully, its copies at several widely spaced longitudes. Important additions to the SHINE 2000 matrix are required to define an observational program. These include spatial and temporal resolutions and extents as well as needed sensitivity.

Jones, Harrison P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Data Standards and the Synthesis of Magnetograms

A key component of future models of coronal evolution will be the high resolution vector magnetograms that drive the models. Much of this data will have limited field of view, and so will need to be supplemented from other sources, particularly when a global context is needed. I will discuss our plans to develop a tool capable of synthesizing magnetograms from multiple sources. This will rely heavily on the CCMC's KAMELEON data formatter and interpolator.

MacNeice, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Tracking Vector Magnetograms with the Magnetic Induction Equation

The differential affine velocity estimator (DAVE) that we developed in 2006 for estimating velocities from line-of-sight magnetograms is modified to directly incorporate horizontal magnetic fields to produce a differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM). The DAVE4VM's performance is demonstrated on the synthetic data from the anelastic pseudospectral ANMHD simulations that were used in the recent comparison of velocity inversion techniques by Welsch and coworkers. The DAVE4VM predicts roughly 95% of the helicity rate and 75% of the power transmitted through the simulation slice. Intercomparison between DAVE4VM and DAVE and further analysis of the DAVE method demonstrates that line-of-sight tracking methods capture the shearing motion of magnetic footpoints but are insensitive to flux emergence - the velocities determined from line-of-sight methods are more consistent with horizontal plasma velocities than with flux transport velocities. These results suggest that previous studies that rely on velocities determined from line-of-sight methods such as the DAVE or local correlation tracking may substantially misrepresent the total helicity rates and power through the photosphere.

Schuck, P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A comparison of EUV spectroheliograms and photospheric magnetograms

A comparison of EUV data from an experiment on the OSO-6 satellite with photospheric magnetograms from Kitt Peak National Observatory indicates relationships between the strength of the photospheric magnetic field and density in the overlying corona in quiet and in active regions, distinctly differing from previous notions. In addition, the photospheric field beneath a coronal hole is found to be virtually identical to that beneath normal quiet regions.

Gurman, J. B.↗