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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2005

Finite Element Analysis and Test Correlation of a 10-Meter Inflation-Deployed Solar Sail

Under the direction of the NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Office, the team of L Garde, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ball Aerospace, and NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a scalable solar sail configuration to address NASA's future space propulsion needs. Prior to a flight experiment of a full-scale solar sail, a comprehensive phased test plan is currently being implemented to advance the technology readiness level of the solar sail design. These tests consist of solar sail component, subsystem, and sub-scale system ground tests that simulate the vacuum and thermal conditions of the space environment. Recently, two solar sail test articles, a 7.4-m beam assembly subsystem test article and a 10-m four-quadrant solar sail system test article, were tested in vacuum conditions with a gravity-offload system to mitigate the effects of gravity. This paper presents the structural analyses simulating the ground tests and the correlation of the analyses with the test results. For programmatic risk reduction, a two-prong analysis approach was undertaken in which two separate teams independently developed computational models of the solar sail test articles using the finite element analysis software packages: NEiNastran and ABAQUS. This paper compares the pre-test and post-test analysis predictions from both software packages with the test data including load-deflection curves from static load tests, and vibration frequencies and mode shapes from vibration tests. The analysis predictions were in reasonable agreement with the test data. Factors that precluded better correlation of the analyses and the tests were uncertainties in the material properties, test conditions, and modeling assumptions used in the analyses.

Sleight, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Structural Analysis of an Inflation-Deployed Solar Sail With Experimental Validation

Under the direction of the NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Office, the team of L Garde, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ball Aerospace, and NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a scalable solar sail configuration to address NASA s future space propulsion needs. Prior to a flight experiment of a full-scale solar sail, a comprehensive phased test plan is currently being implemented to advance the technology readiness level of the solar sail design. These tests consist of solar sail component, subsystem, and sub-scale system ground tests that simulate the vacuum and thermal conditions of the space environment. Recently, two solar sail test articles, a 7.4-m beam assembly subsystem test article and a 10-m four-quadrant solar sail system test article, were tested in vacuum conditions with a gravity-offload system to mitigate the effects of gravity. This paper presents the structural analyses simulating the ground tests and the correlation of the analyses with the test results. For programmatic risk reduction, a two-prong analysis approach was undertaken in which two separate teams independently developed computational models of the solar sail test articles using the finite element analysis software packages: NEiNastran and ABAQUS. This paper compares the pre-test and post-test analysis predictions from both software packages with the test data including load-deflection curves from static load tests, and vibration frequencies and mode shapes from structural dynamics tests. The analysis predictions were in reasonable agreement with the test data. Factors that precluded better correlation of the analyses and the tests were uncertainties in the material properties, test conditions, and modeling assumptions used in the analyses.

Sleight, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2016

What Controls the Vertical Distribution of Aerosol? Relationships Between Process Sensitivity in HadGEM3-UKCA and Inter-Model Variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3-UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3-UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN >3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN>100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

dust↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗
DOE OSTI2024

An empirical analysis of supply offers in the ERCOT operating reserves markets

Here, this paper seeks to improve theoretical and empirical understanding of supplier dynamics in wholesale markets for operating reserves, which have been understudied compared to energy markets. We begin by identifying several economic factors that unit owners may consider when submitting offers into operating reserves auctions in two-stage, co-optimized markets common across much of North America. Next, we analyze historical offer data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market to assess whether actual reserve market behavior aligns with expectations based on economic theory, as well as with commonly used assumptions in electricity market modeling efforts. We find that the aggregate supply of operating reserves in ERCOT varies meaningfully over time, becoming more expensive during summer afternoons, which is consistent with theoretical expectations but contradicts the typical modeling assumption of temporally invariant reserve offers. Analysis of offers made by individual units uncovers additional insights, such as the existence of large offer pattern differences by unit owner and the tendency of battery storage units to submit very low offer prices. We conclude by discussing how our findings can be integrated into electricity market modeling assumptions to improve alignment with observed operating reserve offer inputs and pricing outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Client Selection in Federated Learning: A Network Anomaly Detection Use Case

Federated Learning (FL) has become a ubiquitous approach for training machine learning models on decentralized data, addressing the myriad privacy concerns inherent in traditional centralized methods. However, the efficiency of FL depends on effective client selection and robust privacy preservation mechanisms. Inadequate client selection may lead to suboptimal model performance, while insufficient privacy measures risk exposing sensitive data. This paper proposes a client selection framework for FL that integrates differential privacy and fault tolerance. Our adaptive approach dynamically adjusts the number of selected clients based on model performance and system constraints, ensuring privacy through calibrated noise addition. We evaluate our method on a network anomaly detection use case using the UNSW-NB15 and ROAD datasets. Results show up to a 7% increase in accuracy and a 25% reduction in training time compared to FedL2P. Moreover, we highlight the trade-offs between privacy budgets and model performance, with higher privacy budgets reducing noise and improving accuracy. Our fault tolerance mechanism, while causing a slight performance drop, enhances robustness to client failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney U tests confirms the significance of these improvements (p < 0.05).

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗
NASA NTRS1975

Simulation, guidance and navigation of the B-737 for rollout and turnoff using MLS measurements

A simulation program is described for the B-737 aircraft in landing approach, a touchdown, rollout and turnoff for normal and CAT III weather conditions. Preliminary results indicate that microwave landing systems can be used in place of instrument landing systems landing aids and that a single magnetic cable can be used for automated rollout and turnoff. Recommendations are made for further refinement of the model and additional testing to finalize a set of guidance laws for rollout and turnoff.

Pines, S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Damage Accumulation in SiC/SiC Composites with 3D Architectures

The formation and propagation of multiple matrix cracks in relatively dense ceramic matrix composites when subjected to increasing tensile stress is necessary for high strength and tough composites. However, the occurrence of matrix cracks at low stresses may limit the usefulness of some non-oxide composite systems when subjected to oxidizing environments for long times at stresses sufficient to cause matrix cracking. For SiC fiber-reinforced composites with two-dimensional woven architectures and chemically vapor infiltrated (CVI) SiC matrix and melt-infiltrated (MI) Si/SiC matrix composites, the matrix cracking behavior has been fairly well characterized for different fiber-types and woven architectures. It was found that the occurrence, degree, and growth of matrix cracks depends on the material properties of the composite constituents as well as other physical properties of the composite or architecture, e.g., matrix porosity and size of the fiber bundle. In this study, matrix cracking in SiC fiber reinforced, melt-infiltrated SiC composites with a 3D orthogonal architecture was determined for specimens tested in tension at room temperature. Acoustic emission (AE) was used to monitor the matrix cracking activity, which was later confirmed by microscopic examination of specimens that had failed. The determination of the exact location of AE demonstrated that initial cracking occurred in the matrix rich regions when a large z-direction fiber bundle was used. For specimens with large z-direction fiber tows, the earliest matrix cracking could occur at half the stress for standard 2D woven composites with similar constituents. Damage accumulation in 3D architecture composites will be compared to damage accumulation in 2D architecture composites and discussed with respect to modeling composite stress-strain behavior and use of these composites at elevated temperatures.

Morscher, Gregory N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Multi-model Comparison of the Volcanic Sulfate Deposition from the 1815 Eruption of Mt. Tambora

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 "year without a summer", and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyze both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kgkm-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kgkm-2, as compared to the mean ice-core derived estimates of roughly 50 kgkm-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Marshall, Lauren↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Arctic amplification↗
NASA NTRS1978

SEP ENCKE-87 and Halley rendezvous studies and improved S/C model implementation in HILTOP

Studies were conducted to determine the performance requirements for projected state-of-the-art SEP spacecrafts boosted by the Shuttle/IUS to perform a rendezvous with the comet Halley and a rendezvous with the comet Encke during its 1977 apparition. The spacecraft model of the standard HILTOP computer program was assumed. Numerical and graphical results summarizing the studies are presented.

Horsewood, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

Brown, Molly E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and design of a separate effects irradiation test targeting fission gas release from Cr-doped UO 2

Fission gas release (FGR) from nuclear fuel during operation can diminish heat transfer properties across the pellet-cladding gap and increase the fuel rod internal pressure, thereby posing a concern to fuel reliability and safety during an accident. Enlarging the fuel grain size, which has been shown to improve fission gas retention, can be achieved by doping the fuel feedstock prior to sintering. In this work, the BISON fuel performance code was used to predict FGR from undoped and chromia-doped UO 2 (referred to as Cr-doped UO 2 ) fuel specimens with different grain sizes and across various temperatures. The BISON models identified the irradiation conditions for which FGR is most significant, and a separate effects irradiation experiment in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) was then developed targeting those conditions. Further, the experiment leveraged the MiniFuel irradiation capability at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and consisted of 12 fuel specimens of varying grain size and Cr content. A coupling scheme between BISON FGR results and the ANSYS finite element thermal model used for experiment design was formulated to predict cumulative FGR from each fuel specimen based on expected irradiation temperature histories. The fuel samples were fabricated and characterized as a part of this work, and the fuel compositions modeled in BISON were representative of the specimens used in the experiment. This combined modeling and experimental effort aims to study the effect of fuel grain size and Cr content on FGR and to provide simulated BISON FGR results that can be used for future model validation activities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Forcing Differences and Initial Conditions on Inter-Model Agreement in the VolMIP Volc-Pinatubo-Full Experiment

This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.

metadata↗
NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980–2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125° 3 0.125° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm/yr in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/sq. m yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W/sq. m yr in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W/sq. m yr, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Michael F. Jasinski↗
NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-47 2015 using the National Climate Assessment-Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah Version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125 degreesx0.125 degrees forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p<0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends, and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the Upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 in the West and South; net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/m(exp2)/yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 in the West; U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from West to East. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%; Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, RMSE decreasing only 0.17 to 0.16 W/m(exp 2)/yr, while trend detection increased 2%; NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gaged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Snow depth↗