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A51F-0123: Model Analysis of Tropospheric Aerosol Variability and Sources over the North Atlantic During NAAMES 2015-2016

The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES) is a five-year Earth-Venture Suborbital-2 Mission to characterize the plankton ecosystems and their influences on remote marine aerosols, boundary layer clouds, and their implications for climate in the North Atlantic. While marine-sourced aerosols have been shown to make important contributions to surface aerosol loading, cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions, it is still a challenge to differentiate the marine biogenic aerosol signal from the strong influence of continental pollution outflow. We examine here the spatiotemporal variability and quantify the sources of tropospheric aerosols over the North Atlantic during the first two phases (November 2015 and May-June 2016) of NAAMES using a state-of-the-art chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The model is driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It includes sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol thermodynamics coupled to ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon-aerosol chemistry, mineral dust, sea salt, elemental and organic carbon aerosols, and especially a recently implemented parameterization for the marine primary organic aerosol emission. The simulated aerosols over the North Atlantic are evaluated with available satellite (e.g., MODIS) observations of aerosol optical depths (AOD), and aircraft and ship aerosol measurements. We diagnose transport pathways for continental pollution outflow over the North Atlantic using carbon monoxide, an excellent tracer for anthropogenic pollution transport. We also conduct model perturbation experiments to quantify the relative contributions of terrestrial and oceanic sources to the aerosol loading, AOD, and their variability over the North Atlantic.

aerosols↗

Model Analysis of Tropospheric Aerosol Variability and Sources over the North Atlantic During NAAMES 2015-2016

The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES; http://naames.larc.nasa.gov) is a five year NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital-2 Mission to characterize the plankton ecosystems and their influences on remote marine aerosols, boundary layer clouds, and their implications for climate in the North Atlantic, with the 1st field deployment in November 2015 and the 2nd in May 2016.

Liu, Hongyu↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33032-DND

The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES; http://naames.larc.nasa.gov) is a five-year NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital-2 Mission to characterize the plankton ecosystems and their influences on remote marine aerosols, boundary layer clouds, and their implications for climate in the North Atlantic. While marine-sourced aerosols have been shown to make important contributions to surface aerosol loading, cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions, it is still a challenge to differentiate the marine biogenic aerosol signal from the strong influence of continental pollution outflow. The objectives of this study are to determine the major transport pathways for North American pollution outflow to the North Atlantic, and to quantify the terrestrial and marine sources of aerosols during NAAMES using ground, ship, aircraft, and remote sensing observations in conjunction with a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). This poster presents an initial evaluation of GEOS-Chemfor the periods of NAAMES campaigns #1 (Nov. 2015) and #2 (May 2016).

Hongyu Liu↗

Diagnosing Seasonal to Multi-decadal Phytoplankton Group Dynamics in a Highly Productive Coastal Ecosystem

The Santa Barbara Channel, CA (SBC) is a biodiverse marine ecosystem fueled largely by phytoplankton productivity, and the composition of the phytoplankton community influences the magnitude and fates of this productivity. Here, we create a 22-year monthly time series of phytoplankton biomarker pigment concentrations in the SBC by combining 12 years of high performance liquid chromatography phytoplankton pigment concentrations with bio-optical models and 10 additional years of bio-optical observations. The bio-optical models skillfully predict biomarker pigment concentrations representative of five distinct phytoplankton groups (PGs; diatoms, dinoflagellates, chlorophytes, prymnesiophytes, and picophytoplankton) and resolve seasonal responses to the annual upwelling-relaxation cycle for all PGs except the dinoflagellates. Our observations indicate that nanophytoplankton groups respond most rapidly to seasonal upwelling, followed by diatoms, and then by picophytoplankton as the water column stratifies in the summer. A Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) solution is used to relate advection of different source waters to the observed PG dynamics. The ROMS simulation results suggest that, on seasonal time scales, pronounced cross-SBC differences in PG seasonality are related to cross-SBC differences in source waters. El Niño Southern Oscillation events drive interannual variability in the upwelling response of most PGs. On decadal time scales, dinoflagellate blooms are associated with the warm phase of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and anomalous advection of Southern California Bight source waters into the SBC. Taken together, our results provide a novel view of phytoplankton community succession in response to seasonal upwelling by considering the dynamics of pico- and nano-phytoplankton and suggest that regional surface ocean advection plays a substantial role in driving phytoplankton composition in the SBC.

Phytoplankton↗

Microbial Extremophiles in Aspect of Limits of Life

During Earth's evolution accompanied by geophysical and climatic changes a number of ecosystems have been formed. These ecosystems differ by the broad variety of physicochemical and biological factors composing our environment. Traditionally, pH and salinity are considered as geochemical extremes, as opposed to the temperature, pressure and radiation that are referred to as physical extremes (Van den Burg, 2003). Life inhabits all possible places on Earth interacting with the environment and within itself (cross species relations). In nature it is very rare when an ecotope is inhabited by a single species. As a rule, most ecosystems contain the functionally related and evolutionarily adjusted communities (consortia and populations). In contrast to the multicellular structure of eukaryotes (tissues, organs, systems of organs, whole organism), the highest organized form of prokaryotic life in nature is the benthic colonization in biofilms and microbial mats. In these complex structures all microbial cells of different species are distributed in space and time according to their functions and to physicochemical gradients that allow more effective system support, self-protection, and energy distribution. In vitro, of course, the most primitive organized structure for bacterial and archaeal cultures is the colony, the size, shape, color, consistency, and other characteristics of which could carry varies specifics on species or subspecies levels. In table 1 all known types of microbial communities are shown (Pikuta et a]., 2005). In deep underground (lithospheric) and deep-sea ecosystems an additional factor - pressure, and irradiation - could also be included in the list of microbial communities. Currently the beststudied ecosystems are: human body (due to the medical importance), and fresh water and marine ecosystems (due to the reason of an environmental safety). For a long time, extremophiles were terra incognita, since the environments with aggressive parameters (compared to the human body temperature, pH, mineralization, and pressure) were considered a priori as a dead zone.

Pikuta, Elena V.↗

Pre-Aerosol, Clouds, and Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission Science Definition Team Report: PACE Technical Report Series - Volume 2

We live in an era in which increasing climate variability is having measurable impact on marine ecosystems within our own lifespans. At the same time, an ever-growing human population requires increased access to and use of marine resources. To understand and be better prepared to respond to these challenges, we must expand our capabilities to investigate and monitor ecological and bio geo chemical processes in the oceans. In response to this imperative, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conceived the Pre-Aerosol, Clouds, and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission to provide new information for understanding the living ocean and for improving forecasts of Earth System variability. The PACE mission will achieve these objectives by making global ocean color measurements that are essential for understanding the carbon cycle and its inter-relationship with climate change, and by expanding our understanding about ocean ecology and biogeochemistry. PACE measurements will also extend ocean climate data records collected since the 1990s to document changes in the function of aquatic ecosystems as they respond to human activities and natural processes over short and long periods of time. These measurements are pivotal for differentiating natural variability from anthropogenic climate change effects and for understanding the interactions between these processes and various human uses of the ocean. PACE ocean science goals and measurement capabilities greatly exceed those of our heritage ocean color sensors, and are needed to address the many outstanding science questions developed by the oceanographic community over the past 40 years.

Cetinic, Ivona↗

Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Scoping Workshop on Terrestrial and Coastal Carbon Fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico, St. Petersburg, FL

Despite their relatively small surface area, ocean margins may have a significant impact on global biogeochemical cycles and, potentially, the global air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide. Margins are characterized by intense geochemical and biological processing of carbon and other elements and exchange large amounts of matter and energy with the open ocean. The area-specific rates of productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and organic/inorganic matter sequestration are high in coastal margins, with as much as half of the global integrated new production occurring over the continental shelves and slopes (Walsh, 1991; Doney and Hood, 2002; Jahnke, in press). However, the current lack of knowledge and understanding of biogeochemical processes occurring at the ocean margins has left them largely ignored in most of the previous global assessments of the oceanic carbon cycle (Doney and Hood, 2002). A major source of North American and global uncertainty is the Gulf of Mexico, a large semi-enclosed subtropical basin bordered by the United States, Mexico, and Cuba. Like many of the marginal oceans worldwide, the Gulf of Mexico remains largely unsampled and poorly characterized in terms of its air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide and other carbon fluxes. The goal of the workshop was to bring together researchers from multiple disciplines studying terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems to discuss the state of knowledge in carbon fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico, data gaps, and overarching questions in the Gulf of Mexico system. The discussions at the workshop were intended to stimulate integrated studies of marine and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and associated ecosystems that will help to establish the role of the Gulf of Mexico in the carbon cycle and how it might evolve in the face of environmental change.

Air sea exchanges↗

Sensitivity of Ocean Reflectance Inversion Models for Identifying and Discriminating Between Phytoplankton Functional Groups

The daily, synoptic images provided by satellite ocean color instruments provide viable data streams for observing changes in the biogeochemistrY of marine ecosystems. Ocean reflectance inversion models (ORMs) provide a common mechanism for inverting the "color" of the water observed a satellite into marine inherent optical properties (lOPs) through a combination of empiricism and radiative transfer theory. lOPs, namely the spectral absorption and scattering characteristics of ocean water and its dissolved and particulate constituents, describe the contents of the upper ocean, information critical for furthering scientific understanding of biogeochemical oceanic processes. Many recent studies inferred marine particle sizes and discriminated between phytoplankton functional groups using remotely-sensed lOPs. While all demonstrated the viability of their approaches, few described the vertical distributions of the water column constituents under consideration and, thus, failed to report the biophysical conditions under which their model performed (e.g., the depth and thickness of the phytoplankton bloom(s)). We developed an ORM to remotely identifY Noctiluca miliaris and other phytoplankton functional types using satellite ocean color data records collected in the northern Arabian Sea. Here, we present results from analyses designed to evaluate the applicability and sensitivity of the ORM to varied biophysical conditions. Specifically, we: (1) synthesized a series of vertical profiles of spectral inherent optical properties that represent a wide variety of bio-optical conditions for the northern Arabian Sea under aN Miliaris bloom; (2) generated spectral remote-sensing reflectances from these profiles using Hydrolight; and, (3) applied the ORM to the synthesized reflectances to estimate the relative concentrations of diatoms and N Miliaris for each example. By comparing the estimates from the inversion model to those from synthesized vertical profiles, we were able to identifY those bio-optical conditions under which the inversion model performs both well and poorly.

Werdell, P. Jeremy↗

Next-Generation Optical Sensing Technologies for Exploring Ocean Worlds - NASA FluidCam, MiDAR, and NeMO-Net

We highlight three emerging NASA optical technologies that enhance our ability to remotely sense, analyze, and explore ocean worlds–FluidCam and fluid lensing, MiDAR, and NeMO-Net. Fluid lensing is the first remote sensing technology capable of imaging through ocean waves without distortions in 3D at sub-cm resolutions. Fluid lensing and the purpose-built FluidCam CubeSat instruments have been used to provide refraction-corrected 3D multispectral imagery of shallow marine systems from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Results from repeat 2013 and 2016 airborne fluid lensing campaigns over coral reefs in American Samoa present a promising new tool for monitoring fine-scale ecological dynamics in shallow aquatic systems tens of square kilometers in area. MiDAR is a recently-patented active multispectral remote sensing and optical communications instrument which evolved from FluidCam. MiDAR is being tested on UAVs and autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to remotely sense living and non-living structures in light-limited and analog planetary science environments. MiDAR illuminates targets with high-intensity narrowband structured optical radiation to measure an object’s spectral reflectance while simultaneously transmitting data. MiDAR is capable of remotely sensing reflectance at fine spatial and temporal scales, with a signal-to-noise ratio 10-10(exp 3) times higher than passive airborne and spaceborne remote sensing systems, enabling high-framerate multispectral sensing across the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared spectrum. Preliminary results from a 2018 mission to Guam show encouraging applications of MiDAR to imaging coral from airborne and underwater platforms whilst transmitting data across the air-water interface. Finally, we share NeMO-Net, the Neural Multi-Modal Observation & Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment. NeMO-Net is a machine learning technology under development that exploits high-resolution data from FluidCam and MiDAR for augmentation of low-resolution airborne and satellite remote sensing. NeMO-Net is intended to harmonize the growing diversity of 2D and 3D remote sensing with in situ data into a single open-source platform for assessing shallow marine ecosystems globally using active learning for citizen-science based training. Preliminary results from four-class Q17 coral classification have an accuracy of 94.4%. Together, these maturing technologies present promising scalable, practical, and cost-efficient innovations that address current observational and technological challenges in optical sensing of marine systems.

Ved Chirayath↗

GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

Source record↗

Effect of Atmospheric Organics on Bioavailable Fe Lifetime in the Oceans

The deposition of atmospheric aerosols is an important supply pathway of soluble iron (sol-Fe) to the global oceans influencing marine ecosystem processes and climate. Previous studies have shown that natural and anthropogenic acidic trace gases, when mixed with mineral dust, can lead to production of sol-Fe, leading to considerable increase in dust-Fe solubility. Recent studies have further highlighted the importance of atmospheric organic compounds/ligands in the production of sol-Fe during atmospheric transport and transformation of mineral aerosols. However, the actual scope of this aerosol sol-Fe for stimulating the primary productivity in the oceans is determined by both: the total atmospheric fluxes of sol-Fe and the lifetime of sol-Fe after its deposition to the ocean. In this study several atmospheric organic ligands were investigated for their effect on the lifetime of sol-Fe after mixing with seawater. Organic ligands were selected based on their abundance in the marine boundary layer and rainwater and their ability to form bidentate complexes with Fe. The results reveal that the tested organics had minor influence on Fe(II) lifetime in seawater. However, results also show that some organic acid considerably extended the lifetime of colloidal and aqueous Fe(III). Using these results we simulate aerosol sol-Fe lifetime in the ocean for different mineral dust deposition events in the presence and the absence of atmospheric organic ligands. The calculations suggest that when a large dust plume is assumed to contain Fe(II) alone, less than 15% of aerosol sol-Fe gets complexed with marine organic ligands. However, this fraction increases to over 90% when atmospheric Fe is allowed to bond with atmospheric organic acids prior to deposition to the oceans. Calculations also show that for the conditions when seawater organic ligands get titrated by Fe released from dust aerosol particles, retention of sol-Fe in the ocean depends on surface ocean mixing, i.e., replenishing rates for Fe-bonding ligands from below. This study suggests that in future ocean biogeochemistry models more attention should be devoted to better quantification of the role of atmospheric organic acids in the lifetime of aerosol sol-Fe after its deposition to the ocean and the improvements of upper ocean turbulence parameterizations.

Oceans↗

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

The PACE-MAPP Algorithm: Coupled Ocean/Aerosol Products

The PACE-MAPP algorithm, under development for combined SPEXone, HARP2 and OCI observations from NASA’s future Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite mission, directly inverts the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to retrieve aerosol optical and microphysical properties and ocean optical properties simultaneously. PACE-MAPP thus retrieves the spectrally-resolved inherent optical properties of the Earth’s waters: the spectral particulate scattering coefficient, b_p (λ), the spectral absorption coefficient for particulates and color-dissolved matter, a_tot (λ), and the spectral particulate backscatter efficiency, b ̃_"bp". From these three spectrally-resolved components, we can derive the spectral particulate hemispherical backscattering coefficient b_bp (λ) and the spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient K_"d" (λ). Direct comparisons of b_"bp" (532) and K_"d" (532) are made to collocated High-Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) in-water measurements. The PACE-MAPP algorithm was tested using PACE-analog datasets collected by Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) observations during the NASA NAAMES (The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study) and SABOR (Ship-Aircraft Bio-Optical Research) airborne campaigns, both of which also include ship-based in situ measurements.

Snorre Alfred Moen Stamnes↗

Remote Sensing of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Stocks, Fluxes and Transformations Along the Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum: Advances, Challenges, and Opportunities

From stream headwaters to the deep ocean, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is ubiquitous across the world’s aquatic systems, where it fulfills important biogeochemical and ecological functions. Importantly, DOC is a dynamic component of the carbon cycle and represents a global reservoir (mass of carbon) equivalent in size to the atmospheric CO 2 pool. The mobilization, transport, and transformations of DOC along the land-ocean aquatic continuum biogeochemically connect terrestrial landscapes, freshwater and marine ecosystems, and the atmosphere. As a result, DOC budgets are vulnerable to climate- and human-driven changes. Having the ability to quantify DOC stocks, fluxes, and transformations consistently and accurately in aquatic systems is therefore critical to our understanding of DOC’s functions in the environment and of their susceptibility to change. In recent years, optical techniques and synoptic earth observations have opened new doors to achieve this objective on a global scale. In this review, we explore how in situ measurements, earth observations, and the models they inform have facilitated the large-scale quantification of DOC stocks, fluxes, and transformations along the land-ocean aquatic continuum and how they have helped shape our current understanding of the global DOC cycle. The review also explores the limitations and challenges we still face today, and discusses how upcoming and future sensors are expected to provide new insights into our understanding of the global DOC cycle.

Dissolved organic carbon↗

Cycling phosphorus on the Archean Earth: Part II. Phosphorus limitation on primary production in Archean ecosystems

Several lines of evidence point to low rates of net primary production (NPP) in Archean oceans. However, whether Archean NPP was limited by electron donors or nutrients, particularly phosphorus (P), and how these factors might have changed over a billion years of recorded Archean history, remains contentious. One major challenge is to understand quantitatively the biogeochemical cycling of P on the early Earth. In Part I of this series (Hao et al., 2020), we estimated the weathering flux of P to the oceans as a function of temporally increasing continental emergence and elevation through Archean time. In Part II, we conduct thermodynamic and kinetic simulations to understand key processes of P cycling within the Archean ocean, including seafloor weathering, recycling of organic P, the solubility and precipitation of secondary phosphate minerals, and the burial diagenesis of P precipitates. Our calculations suggest low solubilities of apatite minerals in Archean seawater, primarily due to nearly neutral pH and high levels of Ca. This low solubility, in turn, implies a negligible contribution of apatite dissolution to P bioavailability in Archean seawater. We also simulate the solubility limits of common secondary P-bearing minerals, showing that vivianite would have been the least soluble P mineral in ferruginous Archean seawater (0.1–0.3 µM), even at moderate supersaturation states (Ω = 100 or 1000). If vivianite precipitation was kinetically favorable by microbial activities and mineral adsorption, the sinking flux of P as vivianite in Archean seawater could have reached the modern sinking flux, implying that vivianite precipitation was a potentially major sink for P in Archean oceans. During burial diagenesis, however, vivianite in porewater would have become less stable than Ca-phosphates of lower solubility. At elevated temperatures (>100 °C) associated with burial diagenesis and low-grade metamorphism, vivianite is predicted to react irreversibly with calcite to form apatite. Optimistic assumptions about the recycling efficiency of P on the Archean Earth lead us to estimate that by the end of the eon the total flux of P (continental weathering + recycling) could have supported NPP at levels up to 7% of the modern. The total flux of P would have been much lower on the early and middle Archean Earth, whereas fluxes of electron donors could have been higher, suggesting very low productivity and P-limitation of marine ecosystems during much of the eon. Comparing our estimates of NPP as limited by P supply with the estimate by Ward et al. (2019), in which NPP was limited by electron donors and metabolic efficiency, there could have been a transition between P-limited productivity in the early to middle Archean to electron donor-limitation closer to the eon’s end (assuming no oxygenic photosynthesis). Once oxygenic photosynthesis reached ecological significance, probably near the end of the Archean, our estimated flux of P would allow rapid oxidation of atmosphere.

Vivianite↗

Environmental Variation and Cohort Effects in an Antarctic Predator

Understanding the potential influence of environmental variation experienced by animals during early stages of development on their subsequent demographic performance can contribute to our understanding of population processes and aid in predicting impacts of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. Using data from 4,178 tagged female Weddell seal pups born into 20 different cohorts, and 30 years of observations of the tagged seals, we evaluated the hypothesis that environmental conditions experienced by young seals, either indirectly through maternal effects and/or directly during the initial period of juvenile nutritional independence, have long-term effects on individual demographic performance. We documented an approximately 3-fold difference in the proportion of each cohort that returned to the pupping colonies and produced a pup within the first 10 years after birth. We found only weak evidence for a correlation between annual environmental conditions during the juvenile-independence period and cohort recruitment probability. Instead, the data strongly supported an association between cohort recruitment probability and the regional extent of sea ice experienced by the mother during the winter the pup was in utero. We suggest that inter-annual variation in winter sea-ice extent influences the foraging success of pregnant seals by moderating the regional abundance of competing predators that cannot occupy areas of consolidated sea ice, and by directly influencing the abundance of mid-trophic prey species that are sea-ice obligates. We hypothesize that this environmentally-induced variation in maternal nutrition dictates the extent of maternal energetic investment in offspring, resulting in cohort variation in mean size of pups at weaning which, in turn, contributes to an individual?s phenotype and its ultimate fitness. These linkages between sea ice and trophic dynamics, combined with demonstrated and predicted changes in the duration and extent of sea ice associated with climate change, suggest significant alterations in Antarctic marine ecosystems in the future.

Garrott, Robert A.↗

Corals from Space

The goal of this research is to monitor the health and vigor of coral reef ecosystems, and their sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. To achieve these lofty goals, this research is investigating the feasibility of using spaceborne high-resolution spectrometers (on the US Landsat, French Systeme Probatoire pour l'Observation de la Terre [SPOT] and/or the Indian Resources Satellite [IRS 1C & 1D] spacecraft) to first map the aerial extent of coral reef systems, and second separate the amount of particular corals. If this is successful, we could potentially provide a quantum leap in our understanding of coral reef systems, as well as provide much needed baseline data to measure future changes in global coral reef ecosystems. In collaboration with Tomas Tomascik, Yann Morel, and other colleagues, a series of experiments were planned to coordinate in situ coral observations, high-resolution spaceborne imagery (from Landsat, SPOT, and, possibly, IRS IC spacecraft), and NASA Space Shuttle photographs and digital images. Our eventual goal is to develop "coral health algorithms" that can be used to assess time series of imagery collected from satellite sensors (Landsat since 1972, SPOT since 1986) in concert with in situ observations. The bad news from last year was that from 1997 to mid- 1998, the extreme cloudiness over southeast Asia due to prolonged smoke from El Nino-related fires and the economic chaos in this region frustrated both our space and reef-based data collection activities. When this volatile situation stabilizes, we will restart these activities. The good news was that in collaboration with Al Strong at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) we had an exciting year operationally using the NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor derived sea surface temperature products to warn of coral "bleaching" at many locations throughout the tropics. Data from NOAA's satellites showed that during the El Nino of 1997 and the first half of 1998, more ocean area in the tropics experienced exceptionally high sea surface temperatures, or "hot spots," than have been observed in any fall year since the El Nino of 1982. From January to July, the coral bleaching events were concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere (during its warm season). Since July 1998, the reports of extensive coral bleaching have again spread into regions of the Northern Hemisphere following abnormally high sea surface temperatures, especially around the Philippines and throughout the Caribbean Basin, Bahamas, Bermuda and Florida Keys. These El Nino induced events clearly demonstrated that corals are the "canaries of the marine ecosystem," highly sensitive to short-term natural climate events (El Nino), and should be monitored as measures of longer-term environmental and climate change. Additional information is contained in the original.

Patzert, William C.↗

Biological Oceanography

Within the framework of global biogeochemical cycles and ocean productivity, there are two areas that will be of particular interest to biological oceanography in the 1990s. The first is the mapping in space time of the biomass and productivity of phytoplankton in the world ocean. The second area is the coupling of biological and physical processes as it affects the distribution and growth rate of phytoplankton biomass. Certainly other areas will be of interest to biological oceanographers, but these two areas are amenable to observations from satellites. Temporal and spatial variability is a regular feature of marine ecosystems. The temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton biomass and productivity which is ubiquitous at all time and space scales in the ocean must be characterized. Remote sensing from satellites addresses these problems with global observations of mesocale (2 to 20 days, 10 to 200 km) features over a long period of time.

Abbott, M. R.↗