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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

A consensus mathematical model of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics for multiple vaccine platforms and pathogens

Introduction: Vaccine platforms used in successful, licensed vaccines have varied among pathogens. However, antibody level is still the main clinical correlate of protection in most approved vaccines. Decisions as to the best vaccine platform to pursue for a given pathogen may be informed through improved understanding of the process of antibody generation and its temporal dynamics, as well as the relationship between these processes and the type of vaccine. Methods: We have analyzed the dynamics of antibody generation for different vaccine platforms against diverse pathogens, and developed a consensus mathematical model that captures antibody dynamics across these diverse systems. Initially, the model was fitted to a rich dataset of antibody and immune cell concentrations in a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine experiment. We then used concepts from machine learning, such as transfer learning, to apply the same model to a variety of systems, involving different pathogens, vaccine platforms, and booster dose use/timing, fixing most parameter values relating to the dynamics of the immune system. Results: The model includes B cell proliferation and differentiation, as well as the generation of plasma cells, which secrete large amounts of antibody, and memory B cells. Overall, the model describes antibody generation in all systems tested well and shows that the main differences across platforms are related to the dynamics of antigen presentation. Discussion: This model can be used to predict antibody generation in pairs of vaccine platform/pathogen, allowing for the use of in silico results to narrow down experimental burden in vaccine development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Coupled Mathematical Model of the Intracellular Replication of Dengue Virus and the Host Cell Immune Response to Infection

Dengue virus (DV) is a positive-strand RNA virus of the Flavivirus genus. It is one of the most prevalent mosquito-borne viruses, infecting globally 390 million individuals per year. The clinical spectrum of DV infection ranges from an asymptomatic course to severe complications such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS), the latter because of severe plasma leakage. Given that the outcome of infection is likely determined by the kinetics of viral replication and the antiviral host cell immune response (HIR) it is of importance to understand the interaction between these two parameters. In this study, we use mathematical modeling to characterize and understand the complex interplay between intracellular DV replication and the host cells' defense mechanisms. We first measured viral RNA, viral protein, and virus particle production in Huh7 cells, which exhibit a notoriously weak intrinsic antiviral response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed intracellular DV replication model. We then measured replication in IFN competent A549 cells and used this data to couple the replication model with a model describing IFN activation and production of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs), as well as their interplay with DV replication. By comparing the cell line specific DV replication, we found that host factors involved in replication complex formation and virus particle production are crucial for replication efficiency. Regarding possible modes of action of the HIR, our model fits suggest that the HIR mainly affects DV RNA translation initiation, cytosolic DV RNA degradation, and naïve cell infection. We further analyzed the potential of direct acting antiviral drugs targeting different processes of the DV lifecycle in silico and found that targeting RNA synthesis and virus assembly and release are the most promising anti-DV drug targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Targeted Quantification of Protein Phosphorylation and Its Contributions towards Mathematical Modeling of Signaling Pathways

Post-translational modifications (PTMs) are key regulatory mechanisms that can control protein function. Of these, phosphorylation is the most common and widely studied. Because of its importance in regulating cell signaling, precise and accurate measurements of protein phosphorylation across wide dynamic ranges are crucial to understanding how signaling pathways function. Although immunological assays are commonly used to detect phosphoproteins, their lack of sensitivity, specificity, and selectivity often make them unreliable for quantitative measurements of complex biological samples. Recent advances in Mass Spectrometry (MS)-based targeted proteomics have made it a more useful approach than immunoassays for studying the dynamics of protein phosphorylation. Selected reaction monitoring (SRM)—also known as multiple reaction monitoring (MRM)—and parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) can quantify relative and absolute abundances of protein phosphorylation in multiplexed fashions targeting specific pathways. In addition, the refinement of these tools by enrichment and fractionation strategies has improved measurement of phosphorylation of low-abundance proteins. The quantitative data generated are particularly useful for building and parameterizing mathematical models of complex phospho-signaling pathways. Potentially, these models can provide a framework for linking analytical measurements of clinical samples to better diagnosis and treatment of disease.

mathematical modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Searching for fat tails in CRISPR-Cas systems: Data analysis and mathematical modeling

Understanding CRISPR-Cas systems—the adaptive defence mechanism that about half of bacterial species and most of archaea use to neutralise viral attacks—is important for explaining the biodiversity observed in the microbial world as well as for editing animal and plant genomes effectively. The CRISPR-Cas system learns from previous viral infections and integrates small pieces from phage genomes called spacers into the microbial genome. The resulting library of spacers collected in CRISPR arrays is then compared with the DNA of potential invaders. One of the most intriguing and least well understood questions about CRISPR-Cas systems is the distribution of spacers across the microbial population. Here, using empirical data, we show that the global distribution of spacer numbers in CRISPR arrays across multiple biomes worldwide typically exhibits scale-invariant power law behaviour, and the standard deviation is greater than the sample mean. We develop a mathematical model of spacer loss and acquisition dynamics which fits observed data from almost four thousand metagenomes well. In analogy to the classical ‘rich-get-richer’ mechanism of power law emergence, the rate of spacer acquisition is proportional to the CRISPR array size, which allows a small proportion of CRISPRs within the population to possess a significant number of spacers. Our study provides an alternative explanation for the rarity of all-resistant super microbes in nature and why proliferation of phages can be highly successful despite the effectiveness of CRISPR-Cas systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model

Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States. Here, our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%). Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low activity subpopulations. A meningitis vaccine providing low efficacy cross-protection against gonorrhea acquisition and short duration of protection could result in a large reduction in gonorrhea prevalence in the United States. Potential dual protective effects can be considered when making vaccine recommendations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Models for Optimization of Grid-Integrated Energy Storage Systems

Energy storage has been proven to yield positive effects on planning, operation and control of electric grids. It has become a crucial task to properly model the energy storage systems (ESS) under the framework of grid optimization on transmission and distribution networks including microgrids. This paper presents a review on mathematical models and test cases of ESSs used for grid optimization studies, where the network constraints of power systems are included. The existing ESS models are mainly classified into two categories – linear and nonlinear models. The two main categories are further divided into several subcategories respectively; such as mixed-integer linear and convex nonlinear sub-categories. Based on the review and discussions, this paper aims at providing suggestions for choosing proper ESS models for specific grid optimization studies considering the chosen power network model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental measurements and mathematical modeling of cold plate for aviation thermal management

Herein, this study, which has been motivated by the recent applications of the cold plate device in aviation thermal management, reports on physics-based mathematical models derived from the conservation laws of mass, momentum, and energy, and empiricism-based models. One of the objectives of the present work is to report on an elaborate and successful experimental work carried out on an additively manufactured device for the purpose of rigorously validating the numerical predictions. The excellent agreement between the numerical predictions and measured performance provides much needed confidence in the implementation, in the software package, of the offset-strip fin passage correlations, as well as in the software implementation of user-defined wavy fin correlations for aerospace heat exchangers and cold plates operating with ram air at Reynolds numbers below 8000. The contributions of this work can also be found in the development of a new and accurate thermal-hydraulic analysis procedure, referred to in this paper as plate-fin analogy. Results from this procedure are compared with those from thermal resistance network. The comparative study in this paper of the bulk and discrete enthalpy flux method is also new, as is the relative assessment of four off-set strip fin thermal-hydraulic models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Review—Development of Highly Active and Durable Hybrid Compressive Platinum Lattice Catalysts for Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells: Mathematical Modeling and Experimental Work

This review provides a comprehensive overview on the development of highly active and durable platinum catalysts with ultra-low Pt loadings for polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) through a combined mathematical modeling and experimental work. First, simulation techniques were applied to evaluate the validity of the Tafel approximation for the calculation of the mass activity (MA) and specific activity (SA). A one-dimensional agglomeration model was developed and solved to understand the effects of exchange current density, porosity, agglomerate size, Nafion ® film thickness, and Pt loading on the MA and SA. High porosity (> 60%) and agglomerations at high Pt loadings cause the loss of the Tafel approximation and consequently the decrease in MA and SA. A new structure parameter was introduced to estimate the real porous structure using the fractal theory. The volumetric catalyst density was corrected by the fractal dimension (measured by Hg porosimetry), which gave a good agreement with the experimental values. The loading-dependent Tafel equation was then derived, which contains both the utilization and the non-linear scaling factor. Second, activated carbon composite support (ACCS) with optimized surface area, porosity, pore size, and pore size distribution was developed. The hydrophilic/hydrophobic ratio, structural properties (amorphous/crystalline ratio), and the number of active sites were optimized through metal-catalyzed pyrolysis. Stability of ACCS and Pt/ACCS were evaluated using an accelerated stress test (AST). The results indicated that Pt/ACCS showed no significant loss of MA and power density after 5,000 cycles at 1.0–1.5 V, while the commercial Pt/C catalysts showed drastic losses of MA and power density. Finally, monolayers of compressed Pt (core–shell-type Pt 3 Co 1 ) catalysts were structured by diffusing Co atoms (previously embedded in ACCS) into Pt. Compressive Pt lattice (Pt * ) catalysts were synthesized through an annealing procedure developed at the University of South Carolina (USC). The Pt * /ACCS catalyst showed high initial power density (rated) of 0.174 g Pt kW −1 and high stability (24 mV loss) at 0.8 A cm −2 after 30,000 cycles (0.6–1.0 V). The outstanding performance of Pt * /ACCS is due to the synergistic effect of ACCS and compressive Pt * lattice.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Modeling of Liquid-Phase Alkylation of Benzene with Ethylene Considering the Process Unsteadiness

Ethylbenzene is a key intermediate in the manufacture of styrene that is an important industrial monomer. Ethylbenzene is produced by benzene alkylation using either gas-phase or liquid-phase methods. The liquid-phase alkylation that uses liquid acidic catalysts needs to be improved. We develop a mathematical model for the liquid-phase benzene alkylation. The reaction scheme, designed with a due analysis of desired and side reactions, and with the analysis of the formation of deactivating agents, reflects, in particular, the influence of the concentration of heavy hydrocarbons on the catalyst activity. The account of the catalyst deactivation by heavy alkylaromatics allows predictions of the temporal changes in the outputs of the alkylation process. In particular, the decrease of the ethylbenzene concentration by 2–3 wt % and increase of the polyalkylate outlet concentration by 1.5–2 wt % are the results of the catalyst deactivation. These effects, however, can be compensated by 1.3-time increase of polyalkylate supply and by the temperature increase up to 398 K. Finally, the calculations also show that it is possible to decrease the supply of fresh catalyst from 0.498 to 0.472 t/hour without loss in the yield of ethylbenzene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mathematical model of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine and the human immune system

Cancer vaccines are an important component of the cancer immunotherapy toolkit enhancing immune response to malignant cells by activating CD4 + and CD8 + T cells. Multiple successful clinical applications of cancer vaccines have shown good safety and efficacy. Despite the notable progress, significant challenges remain in obtaining consistent immune responses across heterogeneous patient populations, as well as various cancers. We present a mechanistic mathematical model describing key interactions of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine with an individual patient’s immune system. Specifically, the model considers the vaccine concentration of tumor-specific antigen peptides and adjuvant, the patient’s major histocompatibility complexes I and II copy numbers, tumor size, T cells, and antigen presenting cells. We parametrized the model using patient-specific data from a clinical study in which individualized cancer vaccines were used to treat six melanoma patients. Model simulations predicted both immune responses, represented by T cell counts, to the vaccine as well as clinical outcome (determined as change of tumor size). This model, although complex, can be used to describe, simulate, and predict the behavior of the human immune system to a personalized cancer vaccine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Model for Li-S Cell with Shuttling-Induced Capacity Loss Approximation

Lithium sulfur (Li-S) batteries have the potential to outperform the current lithium ion batteries and transform the technology of the future. However, dissolution, diffusion, and shuttling of the dissolved polysulfides result in parasitic reactions and substantial capacity loss. To provide a better understanding of the shuttling process, a 1D porous electrode mathematical model has been developed in this paper. An approximation method is used to account for the shuttling-induced capacity loss by adding an extra source/sink term in the material balance equations for the species involved in the parasitic reactions. Shuttling constants used in the source terms can be determined by fitting the model predictions to the experimental measurements. Here, the results showed that by including the approximation method, the model was able to predict the active material loss and the continuous decrease of volume fractions of Li 2 S on the cathode surface. The model sheds light on the capacity loss mechanism occurring inside the cell as a result of the shuttling of polysulfides.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical model of broadly reactive plasma cell production

Strain-specific plasma cells are capable of producing neutralizing antibodies that are essential for clearance of challenging pathogens. These neutralizing antibodies also function as a main defense against disease establishment in a host. However, when a rapidly mutating pathogen infects a host, successful control of the invasion requires shifting the production of plasma cells from strain-specific to broadly reactive. In this study, we develop a mathematical model of germinal center dynamics and use it to predict the events that lead to improved breadth of the plasma cell response. We examine scenarios that lead to germinal centers that are composed of B-cells that come from a single strain-specific clone, a single broadly reactive clone or both clones. We find that the initial B-cell clonal composition, T-follicular helper cell signaling, increased rounds of productive somatic hypermutation, and B-cell selection strength are among the mechanisms differentiating between strain-specific and broadly reactive plasma cell production during infections. Understanding the contribution of these factors to emergence of breadth may assist in boosting broadly reactive plasma cells production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

(Invited) Continuum Mathematical Modeling of Water Electrolysis: A Tutorial

Widespread use of hydrogen energy is contingent on the development of reliable and economical sources of hydrogen. Electrolysis from renewably-derived low-carbon electricity is a potentially viable method of hydrogen generation. Prime among the electrolysis technologies are those utilizing ion-conducting polymers (ionomers) including proton-exchange-membrane water electrolyzer (PEMWE). However, these technologies need to exhibit increased efficiency, performance, and durability to become commercially viable. Like most electrochemical devices, PEMWEs involve multiple components (e.g., catalyst, ionomer, transport layers, membrane, plates) and multiple phases, with phenomena occurring across different time and length scales. Furthermore, it is difficult to experimentally probe many of the species and phenomena during operation. Thus, mathematical modeling at the continuum level has been an invaluable aid in exploring, understanding, and optimizing PEMWE cell and components. Furthermore, this is especially true in the highly coupled and complex physics and chemistries that occur with the membrane-electrode assembly (MEA). The physics in a typical volume-averaged non-isothermal model include multiphase transport in porous media, concentrated-solution theory, Ohm's Law, and Butler-Volmer kinetics, and ion, gas, and water transport in the ionomer.

Dizon, Arthur↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Modeling of Hydroxide-Exchange-Membrane Water Electrolyzer

Water electrolyzers can transform intermittent renewable energy like solar energy and wind energy into the chemical energy of hydrogen with zero greenhouse-gas emissions. The hydroxide-exchange membrane electrolyzer (HEME) combines the capability to produce pressurized hydrogen with the advantage of being able to use low or non-platinum group metal (PGM) electrocatalysts in the alkaline environment.1 Hydroxide salts, for example, KOH, are added to the HEME water feed on both anode and cathode to improve its performance. However, the specific mechanism of performance improvement still needs to be further understood. In addition, at high current densities, bubble evolution can result in mass-transport limitations, a less well studied phenomena. Mathematical modeling is ideal to explore these issues as it is cost and time efficient and can deconvolute the physics, processes, and observed phenomena and study the applied-voltage breakdown. In this work, we extend our previously developed 1D two-phase continuum model2 to study the varies processes in the HEME and provide insights on performance optimizations. First, the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) and hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) kinetics at different hydroxide concentrations have been studied by rotating disk electrodes (RDE) and implemented in the model. Then, the model is calibrated and validated against experimental HEME polarization curves for different KOH concentrations as a liquid electrolyte. The model clearly shows a performance increase with increasing KOH concentrations, which is consistent with the experimental results. The reduced ohmic resistance and increased electrochemical active surface area (ECSA) are the two main reasons for performance increase. The large amount of hydroxide in the liquid electrolyte not only helps to distribute the reactant hydroxide throughout the catalyst layer (CL), which reduces ohmic loss, but also enables reaction at the interface between the liquid electrolyte and electrocatalyst, which increases the ECSA. Applied-voltage breakdown demonstrates that the electrolyzer performance is dominated by anode kinetics and ohmic loss. A comparison with the DI water feed shows a more uniform current distribution in the anode CL when KOH is added, which indicates a higher utilization of the CL. Second, we present modeling on the effects of bubble coverage. As gas evolves, part of the ECSA is minimized due to bubble coverage. To account for this effect, an empirical relationship between the fractional bubble coverage and the current density is implemented in the model.3 The model shows this bubble coverage effect is more pronounced at large current densities with DI water feed. Acknowledgements This work was funded under the HydroGEN Consortium by the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office, of the U. S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-AC02-05CH11231. References R. Abbasi, B. P. Setzler, S. Lin, J. Wang, Y. Zhao, H. Xu, B. Pivovar, B. Tian, X. Chen, G. Wu and Y. Yan, 31, 1805876 (2019). L. N. Stanislaw, M. R. Gerhardt and A. Z. Weber, ECS Transactions, 92, 767 (2019). H. Vogt and R. J. Balzer, Electrochimica Acta, 50, 2073 (2005).

Liu, Jiangjin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Minimum reflux calculation for multicomponent distillation in multi‐feed, multi‐product columns: Mathematical model

Abstract Multi‐feed, multi‐product distillation columns are ubiquitous in multicomponent distillation systems. The minimum reflux ratio of a distillation column is directly related to its energy consumption and capital cost. Thus, it is a key parameter for distillation systems design, operation, and comparison. In this series, we present the first accurate shortcut based algorithmic method to determine the minimum reflux condition for any general multi‐feed, multi‐product (MFMP) distillation column separating any ideal multicomponent mixture. The classic McCabe‐Thiele or Underwood method is a special case of this general approach. Compared with existing techniques, this method does not involve any rigorous tray‐by‐tray calculation, nor does it require guessing of key components. In this first part of the series, we present the mathematical model for a general MFMP column, derive constraints for feasible separation and minimum reflux condition, discuss their geometric interpretations, and present an illustrative example to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical modeling of plus-strand RNA virus replication to identify broad-spectrum antiviral treatment strategies

Plus-strand RNA viruses are the largest group of viruses. Many are human pathogens that inflict a socio-economic burden. Interestingly, plus-strand RNA viruses share remarkable similarities in their replication. A hallmark of plus-strand RNA viruses is the remodeling of intracellular membranes to establish replication organelles (so-called “replication factories”), which provide a protected environment for the replicase complex, consisting of the viral genome and proteins necessary for viral RNA synthesis. In the current study, we investigate pan-viral similarities and virus-specific differences in the life cycle of this highly relevant group of viruses. We first measured the kinetics of viral RNA, viral protein, and infectious virus particle production of hepatitis C virus (HCV), dengue virus (DENV), and coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) in the immuno-compromised Huh7 cell line and thus without perturbations by an intrinsic immune response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed mathematical model of the replication of HCV, DENV, and CVB3 and showed that only small virus-specific changes in the model were necessary to describe the in vitro dynamics of the different viruses. Our model correctly predicted virus-specific mechanisms such as host cell translation shut off and different kinetics of replication organelles. Further, our model suggests that the ability to suppress or shut down host cell mRNA translation may be a key factor for in vitro replication efficiency, which may determine acute self-limited or chronic infection. We further analyzed potential broad-spectrum antiviral treatment options in silico and found that targeting viral RNA translation, such as polyprotein cleavage and viral RNA synthesis, may be the most promising drug targets for all plus-strand RNA viruses. Moreover, we found that targeting only the formation of replicase complexes did not stop the in vitro viral replication early in infection, while inhibiting intracellular trafficking processes may even lead to amplified viral growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systematically Improving Espresso: Insights from Mathematical Modeling and Experiment

Espresso is a beverage brewed using hot, high-pressure water forced through a bed of roasted coffee. Despite being one of the most widely consumed coffee formats, it is also the most susceptible to variation. Here, we report a novel model, complimented by experiment, that is able to isolate the contributions of several brewing variables, thereby disentangling some of the sources of variation in espresso extraction. Under the key assumption of homogeneous flow through the coffee bed, a monotonic decrease in extraction yield with increasingly coarse grind settings is predicted. However, experimental measurements show a peak in the extraction yield versus grind setting relationship, with lower extraction yields at both very coarse and fine settings. This result strongly suggests that inhomogeneous flow is operative at fine grind settings, resulting in poor reproducibility and wasted raw material. With instruction from our model, we outline a procedure to eliminate these shortcomings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗