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Stochastic model of the NASA/MSFC ground facility for large space structures with uncertain parameters: The maximum entropy approach, part 2

A validated technology data base is being developed in the areas of control/structures interaction, deployment dynamics, and system performance for Large Space Structures (LSS). A Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control systems being considered for LSS applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to verify the analytical model for the control system design. The procedure is to describe the control system mathematically as well as possible, then to perform tests on the control system, and finally to factor those results into the mathematical model. The reduction of the order of a higher order control plant was addressed. The computer program was improved for the maximum entropy principle adopted in Hyland's MEOP method. The program was tested against the testing problem. It resulted in a very close match. Two methods of model reduction were examined: Wilson's model reduction method and Hyland's optimal projection (OP) method. Design of a computer program for Hyland's OP method was attempted. Due to the difficulty encountered at the stage where a special matrix factorization technique is needed in order to obtain the required projection matrix, the program was successful up to the finding of the Linear Quadratic Gaussian solution but not beyond. Numerical results along with computer programs which employed ORACLS are presented.

Hsia, Wei Shen↗

Spectral and correlation analysis with applications to middle-atmosphere radars

The correlation and spectral analysis methods for uniformly sampled stationary random signals, estimation of their spectral moments, and problems arising due to nonstationary are reviewed. Some of these methods are already in routine use in atmospheric radar experiments. Other methods based on the maximum entropy principle and time series models have been used in analyzing data, but are just beginning to receive attention in the analysis of radar signals. These methods are also briefly discussed.

Rastogi, Prabhat K.↗

First Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Foreground Emission

The WMAP mission has mapped the full sky to determine the geometry, content, and evolution of the universe. Full sky maps are made in five microwave frequency bands to separate the temperature anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from foreground emission, including diffuse Galactic emission and Galactic and extragalactic point sources. We define masks that excise regions of high foreground emission, so CMB analyses can became out with minimal foreground contamination. We also present maps and spectra of the individual emission components, leading to an improved understanding of Galactic astrophysical processes. The effectiveness of template fits to remove foreground emission from the WMAP data is also examined. These efforts result in a CMB map with minimal contamination and a demonstration that the WMAP CMB power spectrum is insensitive to residual foreground emission. We use a Maximum Entropy Method to construct a model of the Galactic emission components. The observed total Galactic emission matches the model to less than 1% and the individual model components are accurate to a few percent. We find that the Milky Way resembles other normal spiral galaxies between 408 MHz and 23 GHz, with a synchrotron spectral index that is flattest (beta(sub s) approx. -2.5) near star-forming regions, especially in the plane, and steepest (beta(sub s) approx. -3) in the halo. This is consistent with a picture of relativistic cosmic ray electron generation in star-forming regions and diffusion and convection within the plane. The significant synchrotron index steepening out of the plane suggests a diffusion process in which the halo electrons are trapped in the Galactic potential long enough to suffer synchrotron and inverse Compton energy losses and hence a spectral steepening. The synchrotron index is steeper in the WMAP bands than in lower frequency radio surveys, with a spectral break near 20 GHz to beta(sub s) less than -3. The modeled thermal dust spectral index is also steep in the WMAP bands, with beta(sub d) approx. = 2.2. Our model is driven to these conclusions by the low level of total foreground contamination at approx. 60 GHz. Microwave and Ha measurements of the ionized gas agree well with one another at about the expected levels. Spinning dust emission is limited to less than 5% of the Ka-band foreground emission. A catalog of 208 point sources is presented. The reliability of the catalog is 98%, i.e., we expect five of the 208 sources to be statistically spurious. The mean spectral index of the point sources is alpha approx. 0(beta approx. -2). Derived source counts suggest a contribution to the anisotropy power from unresolved sources of (15.0 +/- 1.4) x 10(exp -3)micro sq K sr at Q-band and negligible levels at V-band and W-band. The Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect is shown to be a negligible "contamination" to the maps.

Bennett, C. L.↗

Stochastic modeling and control system designs of the NASA/MSFC Ground Facility for large space structures: The maximum entropy/optimal projection approach

In the Control Systems Division of the Systems Dynamics Laboratory of the NASA/MSFC, a Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control system concepts being considered for Large Space Structures (LSS) applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to design an analytical model which will be as close to experimental data as possible so that a feasible control law can be generated. Using Hyland's Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection Approach, a procedure was developed in which the maximum entropy principle is used for stochastic modeling and the optimal projection technique is used for a reduced-order dynamic compensator design for a high-order plant.

Hsia, Wei-Shen↗

Macroscopic Models of Radiative Transfer as Applied to Computation of the Radiation Field in the Solar Atmosphere

In this paper a new three dimensional half-moment model for radiative transfer is presented for a gray medium. It describes the evolution of the zeroth and first directional half moments of the radiative intensity. The closure is provided, similarly to Dubroca and Klar, by the maximum entropy concept. This work generalizes that model to three dimensions. The model presented here (the derivation being done in Ripoll and Wray, called the M(sup 1/2)(sub 1) model, is a hyperbolic system consisting of a total of eight equations in three dimensions, four equations for each direction. Each half model has the classical form of a macroscopic moment model in which the pressure tensor is constructed from the well-known Eddington tensor with a particular Eddington factor. Moreover, different source and border terms occur. The latter introduce couplings between the macroscopic and microscopic quantities and between the + and - streams, through the intensity in the plane perpendicular to the flux. The main theoretical application of the half moment model, treated in this paper, is its reduction to a full moment model, called M(sup +)(sub 1), for the particular but important case of a hot, opaque source radiating in a cold transparent (or semi-transparent) medium for very specific applications, such as stellar interiors or atmospheres, or combustion problems. The structure of the paper is as follows. In section 2, the model M(sup 1/2)(sub 1) is presented. In section 3, for the particular case of a hot, opaque source radiating into a cold medium, the half moment model is reduced to the M(sup +)(sub 1) model. In section 4, we first solve a simple and academic problem to validate the models, followed by a simplified solar atmosphere.

Ripoll, J.-F.↗

Quantiles, parametric-select density estimation, and bi-information parameter estimators

A quantile-based approach to statistical analysis and probability modeling of data is presented which formulates statistical inference problems as functional inference problems in which the parameters to be estimated are density functions. Density estimators can be non-parametric (computed independently of model identified) or parametric-select (approximated by finite parametric models that can provide standard models whose fit can be tested). Exponential models and autoregressive models are approximating densities which can be justified as maximum entropy for respectively the entropy of a probability density and the entropy of a quantile density. Applications of these ideas are outlined to the problems of modeling: (1) univariate data; (2) bivariate data and tests for independence; and (3) two samples and likelihood ratios. It is proposed that bi-information estimation of a density function can be developed by analogy to the problem of identification of regression models.

Parzen, E.↗

Microwave Imaging on Metal Objects

This final report for the project discusses the attempts to model, using different methods, microwave image reconstruction. Maximum Entropy Method was not successful. Attempts to use Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) got some good results after initial failure. SVD is based upon a theory of linear algebra, to the effect that any M X N Matrix A whose number of rows M is greater than or equal to its number of columns, N can be written as the product of an M X N column-orthogonal matrix U, an N X N diagonal Matrix, W, with m positive or zero elements (the singular values) and the transposition of an N X N orthogonal matrix V. In microwave imaging, the scattered fields can be expressed by the induced current distribution. The SVD method required more contiguous computer memory than was available. Work was also done on the Conjugate Gradient Method (CGM), which didn't work well when tried earlier. It was found that separation of the imaginary part and the real part during calculation may work. This work was considered incomplete as of the end of the grant period.

Tolliver, C. L.↗

Hybrid Reduced Order Model for N2-N2 Interactions for Application to Dissociation and Energy Transfer Processes

This work presents a general framework for model reduction of non-equilibrium energy transfer and dissociation processes. The multi-group maximum-entropy method is coupled with the quasi-classical trajectory method to directly construct a reduced order model for chemical non-equilibrium. Kinetic data is calculated by applying detailed balance at a microscopic level, overcoming the limitation of calculating recombination kinetic data. This approach enables the construction of a reduced order model for kinetics which bypasses the need to compute state-to-state kinetic data. This physics based reduced order model ensures that an equilibrium distribution is reached given infinite time, while allowing for non-equilibrium distributions during the relaxation and dissociation processes. A proof-of-concept test case demonstrates the applicability of this model by comparison with state-to-state kinetic data for the N2(Chi (sup 1) Sigma ((sub g), (sup plus sign)) minus N ((exp 4) S (sub u)) system with excellent agreement.

Maximum Entropy↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Aircraft Trajectories for Dynamic Separation Volumes

With a proliferation of new and unconventional vehicles and operations expected in the future, the ab initio airspace design will require new approaches to trajectory prediction for separation assurance and other air traffic management functions. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic modeling of the trajectory of an aircraft when its intent is unknown. The approach uses a set of feature functions to constrain a maximum entropy probability distribution based on a set of observed aircraft trajectories. This model can be used to sample new aircraft trajectories to form an ensemble reflecting the variability in an aircraft's intent. The model learning process ensures that the variability in this ensemble reflects the behavior observed in the original data set. Computational examples are presented.

Lewis, Timothy A.↗

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS): An iRODS-Based, Cloud-Enabled Decision Support System for Invasive Species Habitat Suitability Modeling

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) is an online decision support system that allows users to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of interest, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. Target customers for ISFS are natural resource managers and decision makers who have a need for scientifically valid, model- based predictions of the habitat suitability of plant species of management concern. In a joint project involving NASA and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, ISFS has been used to model the potential distribution of Wavyleaf Basketgrass in Maryland's Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Maximum entropy techniques are used to generate predictive maps using predictor datasets derived from remotely sensed data and climate simulation outputs. The workflow to run a model is implemented in an iRODS microservice using a custom ISFS file driver that clips and re-projects data to geographic regions of interest, then shells out to perform MaxEnt processing on the input data. When the model completes, all output files and maps from the model run are registered in iRODS and made accessible to the user. The ISFS user interface is a web browser that uses the iRODS PHP client to interact with the ISFS/iRODS- server. ISFS is designed to reside in a VMware virtual machine running SLES 11 and iRODS 3.0. The ISFS virtual machine is hosted in a VMware vSphere private cloud infrastructure to deliver the online service.

Gill, Roger↗

Shock heating of the solar wind plasma

The role played by shocks in heating solar-wind plasma is investigated using data on 413 shocks which were identified from the plasma and magnetic-field data collected between 1973 and 1982 by Pioneer and Voyager spacecraft. It is found that the average shock strength increased with the heliocentric distance outside 1 AU, reaching a maximum near 5 AU, after which the shock strength decreased with the distance; the entropy of the solar wind protons also reached a maximum at 5 AU. An MHD simulation model in which shock heating is the only heating mechanism available was used to calculate the entropy changes for the November 1977 event. The calculated entropy agreed well with the value calculated from observational data, suggesting that shocks are chiefly responsible for heating solar wind plasma between 1 and 15 AU.

Whang, Y. C.↗

Probabilistic constitutive relationships for cyclic material strength models

A methodology is developed that provides a probabilistic treatment for the lifetime of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to fatigue. Material strength degradation models, based on primitive variables, include both a fatigue strength reduction model and a fatigue crack growth model. Probabilistic analysis is based on simulation, and both maximum entropy and maximum penalized likelihood methods are used for the generation of probability density functions. The resulting constitutive relationships are included in several computer programs.

Boyce, L.↗

Probabilistic analysis for fatigue strength degradation of materials

This report presents the results of the first year of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by the University of Texas at San Antonio. The research included development of methodology that provides a probabilistic treatment of lifetime prediction of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to fatigue. Material strength degradation models, based on primitive variables, include both a fatigue strength reduction model and a fatigue crack growth model. Linear elastic fracture mechanics is utilized in the latter model. Probabilistic analysis is based on simulation, and both maximum entropy and maximum penalized likelihood methods are used for the generation of probability density functions. The resulting constitutive relationships are included in several computer programs, RANDOM2, RANDOM3, and RANDOM4. These programs determine the random lifetime of an engine component, in mechanical load cycles, to reach a critical fatigue strength or crack size. The material considered was a cast nickel base superalloy, one typical of those used in the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Royce, Lola↗

Microscopic Simulation and Macroscopic Modeling for Thermal and Chemical Non-Equilibrium

This paper deals with the accurate microscopic simulation and macroscopic modeling of extreme non-equilibrium phenomena, such as encountered during hypersonic entry into a planetary atmosphere. The state-to-state microscopic equations involving internal excitation, de-excitation, dissociation, and recombination of nitrogen molecules due to collisions with nitrogen atoms are solved time-accurately. Strategies to increase the numerical efficiency are discussed. The problem is then modeled using a few macroscopic variables. The model is based on reconstructions of the state distribution function using the maximum entropy principle. The internal energy space is subdivided into multiple groups in order to better describe the non-equilibrium gases. The method of weighted residuals is applied to the microscopic equations to obtain macroscopic moment equations and rate coefficients. The modeling is completely physics-based, and its accuracy depends only on the assumed expression of the state distribution function and the number of groups used. The model makes no assumption at the microscopic level, and all possible collisional and radiative processes are allowed. The model is applicable to both atoms and molecules and their ions. Several limiting cases are presented to show that the model recovers the classical twotemperature models if all states are in one group and the model reduces to the microscopic equations if each group contains only one state. Numerical examples and model validations are carried out for both the uniform and linear distributions. Results show that the original over nine thousand microscopic equations can be reduced to 2 macroscopic equations using 1 to 5 groups with excellent agreement. The computer time is decreased from 18 hours to less than 1 second.

Modeling↗

The ultraviolet pulsations of the cataclysmic variable AE Aquarii as observed with the Hubble Space Telescope

We present the results of high time resolution UV spectroscopy and simultaneous high-speed UBVR photometry of AE Aqr. The UV spectra were obtained with the Faint Object Spectrograph aboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and the photometry was carried out with the 82 sec telescope at McDonald Observatory. Our study focuses on the coherent 33 sceond oscillations, whose amplitude is found to be very large in the UV (40% of the mean quiescent level). The mean pulse profile has two broad unequal peaks spaced by half an oscillation cycle. The pulse profiles in the UV and optical bands appear quite similar in shape, with no discernible shifts. The orbital delay curve of the UV pulses establishes the white dwarf as their origin. The (UV+optical) spectrum of the pulsations is well described by a white dwarf atmosphere model with a temperature of about 26,000 K. We find no oscillations in the UV emission-line fluxes, nor in their velocities, down to a limit of 800 km/s. Based on the properties of the UV and optical pulsations we suggest that they originate in the X-ray heated magnetic polar caps of the white dwarf. Under this assumption we produce maximum entropy maps of the brightness distribution of the white dwarf surface. Using this model we are able to reproduce the observed mean pulse profile and interpret fluctuations in the oscillation amplitude as small fluctuations in the accretion rate. We find that the amplitudes and profiles of the pulses are not strongly affectd by the large aperiodic flares exhibited by the system. This suggests that the large flares are not related to the process of depositing material onto the white dwarf and argues against models that place their origin at the white dwarf magnetosphere.

Eracleous, Michael↗

Bayesian image reconstruction - The pixon and optimal image modeling

In this paper we describe the optimal image model, maximum residual likelihood method (OptMRL) for image reconstruction. OptMRL is a Bayesian image reconstruction technique for removing point-spread function blurring. OptMRL uses both a goodness-of-fit criterion (GOF) and an 'image prior', i.e., a function which quantifies the a priori probability of the image. Unlike standard maximum entropy methods, which typically reconstruct the image on the data pixel grid, OptMRL varies the image model in order to find the optimal functional basis with which to represent the image. We show how an optimal basis for image representation can be selected and in doing so, develop the concept of the 'pixon' which is a generalized image cell from which this basis is constructed. By allowing both the image and the image representation to be variable, the OptMRL method greatly increases the volume of solution space over which the image is optimized. Hence the likelihood of the final reconstructed image is greatly increased. For the goodness-of-fit criterion, OptMRL uses the maximum residual likelihood probability distribution introduced previously by Pina and Puetter (1992). This GOF probability distribution, which is based on the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, has the advantage that it ensures spatially uncorrelated image reconstruction residuals.

Pina, R. K.↗

Dendritic growth in a supercooled alloy melt

A simple model which describes the growth of an 'array' of dendrites into a supercooled, binary, alloy melt is presented. Solute diffusion is calculated by superposing the solutions given by Flemings and Zener, and also, by superposing the solutions given by Ivantsov and Flemings. A general expression for the transport solution is suggested from which all other dendrite growth models presented earlier may be obtained as special cases. It is shown that both 'free' and 'constrained' growth may be described by a single transport solution, which indicates that (1) both thermal and solutal effects will be important during 'free' growth in dilute alloys, (2) only solutal effects are predominant during 'free' growth in concentrated alloys and during 'constrained' growth. An examination of the relevant dimensionless parameters also suggests that all dendrite growth models, regardless of the assumptions used to determine the tip radius (marginal stability, minimum undercooling, maximum velocity, minimum entropy production) should predict the experimentally observed extrema in tip radius and growth velocity in dilute alloys, during 'free' dendritic growth. Experimental data in binary H2O-NaCl and succinonitrile-acetone solutions are shown to be in good agreement with the model.

Laxmanan, V.↗

Infrared recombination lines of hydrogen from young objects in the southern Galactic plane

Near infrared recombination lines of hydrogen are observed in twelve young objects in the southern Galactic plane. The sample includes Herbig-Haro objects and IRAS dark-cloud point sources from the 1987 catalog of Persson and Campbell. In four of the IRAS sources two or three infrared lines are measured, and their intensity ratios are consistent with models of optically thick ionized winds. The intrinsic line shapes, retrieved from maximum-entropy deconvolutions, indicate gas velocities of 100 km/s or more as expected from ionized winds. These sources are apparently embedded pre-main-sequence objects with outflows. They include some of the brightest known YSOs.

Beck, Sara C.↗