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The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗

The Kuwait oil fires as seen by Landsat

A mosaic of two Landsat thematic mapper images acquired May 30, 1991, reveals a dark smoke plume 30-60 km wide extending hundreds of kilometers south of Kuwait City along the Persian Gulf. Smoke coming from the Raudhatain and Sabriyah oil fields blew across the Gulf of Kuwait and over Kuwait City, joined with smoke from the Greater Burgan and Minagish fields, and continued southward over smaller villages and regions of desert agriculture consisting of hundreds of axially irrigated fields in both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. One agricultural region in Kuwait was completely obscured by the smoke. The light colored limestone gravel and sand surface was darkened by oil lakes near the wells, and by oil drizzling out of the plume downwind of the wells. Most fires produced either a light or dark plume, and the separate plumes mixed to form a combined plume much darker than the land surface, but slightly more reflective than the Gulf waters. A few of the hottest fires had no visible plume, and are presumably associated with methane combustion. The last of the Kuwait fires was reportedly extinguished in November of 1991. Continued monitoring is needed to assess the impact of emissions from both burning and nonburning oil wells on the region's climate, as well as on the agriculture, fishing, and other activities essential to life in the region.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Model Evaluation of Short-Lived Climate Forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: A Multi-Species, Multi-Model Study

While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, 03, BC, and SO(sup 2-)(sub 4)), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for C"4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme↗

Remote sensing of atmospheric chemistry; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, Apr. 1-3, 1991

The present volume on remote sensing of atmospheric chemistry discusses special remote sensing space observations and field experiments to study chemical change in the atmosphere, network monitoring for detection of stratospheric chemical change, stratospheric chemistry studies, and the combining of model, in situ, and remote sensing in atmospheric chemistry. Attention is given to the measurement of tropospheric carbon monoxide using gas filter radiometers, long-path differential absorption measurements of tropospheric molecules, air quality monitoring with the differential optical absorption spectrometer, and a characterization of tropospheric methane through space-based remote sensing. Topics addressed include microwave limb sounder experiments for UARS and EOS, an overview of the spectroscopy of the atmosphere using an FIR emission experiment, the detection of stratospheric ozone trends by ground-based microwave observations, and a FIR Fabry-Perot spectrometer for OH measurements.

Mcelroy, James L.↗

Quantifying the benefits of improved satellite remote-sensing observations for inverse modeling of NOx and NMVOC emissions

This study aims to demonstrate the benefits of using novel high spatiotemporal retrieval products from newer satellites for top-down emission estimates of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for the summer of 2019 over the contiguous United States. Recent satellite retrievals have not only advanced spatiotemporal resolution but also greatly reduced error and uncertainty due to reduced noise in the retrievals compared to spaceborne sensors launched in the past. We applied inverse modeling techniques using tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and formaldehyde (H-CHO) column retrieval products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in conjunction with the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling system (WRF-CMAQ). In order to provide a better representation of background chemical composition and avoid misalignment of emission adjustment, we applied monthly scaling factors for ozone (O 3 ) and CO boundary concentrations in addition to the inclusion of lightning and aviation emissions. Satellite-constrained NO x and NMVOCs posterior emissions showed a mitigated discrepancy between observed and modeled columns. The improvement in the model performance was greater when using TROPOMI, primarily benefiting from reduced errors/biases of the satellite retrievals that enabled us to explore corresponding changes in O 3 concentrations and production sensitivity regimes using the ratio of H-CHO and NO 2 .

remote sensing↗

Mapping Rice Production in China with AVHRR Imagery

The study of rice agriculture is necessary for both the importance of rice as a vital food source and because of the fact that cultivating it has an unfortunate byproduct, namely methane gas. As a food source, rice is a staple for a large majority of the world's population, especially in Asia. Because the populations of many Asian nations are increasing at rapid rates, the production of rice will need to similarly increase. In 1989, it was estimated that the demand for rice would increase by 65% by the year 2019. Rice crops are considered to be one of the primary anthropogenic sources of methane gas. A reason for concern is that this gas is a so-called "greenhouse" trace gas and given its increasing levels in the atmosphere, is thought to contribute to the suspected global warming phenomenon. Some estimate that methane may contribute up to 20% to the global warming effect. Trace gas emissions from anthropogenic sources is an issue that generates great worldwide interest because of the fact that mankind is very likely affecting the current and future climate in potentially negative ways. In an effort to better understand these effects, scientists and engineers are conducting research on all of the varied fronts which relate to climate change and biosphere/atmosphere interactions. The study of global warming through increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is one area which has received much media and scientific attention. Research fueled by debates on this topic is being conducted on numerous, interrelated fronts in an effort to better understand the complex relationship between human activities and the earth's climate. The research ranges from attempting to verify if the observed data even supports the existence of an anthropogenically generated global-warming phenomenon, to identification of sources and sinks of the trace gases, to measuring the source strengths, to studies which focus on modeling the processes which generate the gases, and finally, to trying to project their impact on the global climatic system. Some of the more commonly known sources of greenhouse gases are related to industry and transportation. Carbon dioxide, CO2, from automobile emissions is one such example. Lesser known are sources from natural and cultivated vegetation, such as the methane, CH4, resulting from rice cropping. While the concentration of atmospheric methane is significantly less than that of carbon dioxide, CH4 has been estimated to have up to 32 times the insulating capability of carbon dioxide, making it an important gas to monitor. The remainder of this chapter will provide some additional background information on the effects of atmospheric methane, and the role that rice agriculture plays as a source in the methane budget. This will be followed by a brief description of efforts to model this source of atmospheric methane. Finally, this chapter will end with a statement of the hypotheses of this thesis, at which time a description of the information contained in the rest of this document will be provided.

Paliouras, Eleni J.↗

Changes in the Ozone Chemical Regime Over the Contiguous United States Inferred By the Inversion of NOx and VOC Emissions Using Satellite Observation

To investigate changes in the ozone (O3) chemical production regime over the contiguous United States (CONUS) with accurate knowledge of concentrations of its precursors, we applied an inverse modeling technique with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total formaldehyde (HCHO) retrieval products in the summers of 2011, 2014, and 2017, years in which United States National Emission Inventory were based. The inclusion of dynamic chemical lateral boundary conditions and lightning-induced nitric oxide emissions significantly account for the contribution of background sources in the free troposphere. Satellite-constrained nitrogen oxide (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions mitigate the discrepancy between satellite and modeled columns: the inversion suggested 2.33-2.84 (1.07-1.34) times higher NOx over the CONUS (over urban regions) and 0.28-0.81 times fewer NMVOCs emissions over the southeastern United States. The model-derived HCHO/NO2 column ratio shows gradual spatial changes in the O3 production regime near urban cores relative to previously defined threshold values representing NOx and VOC sensitive conditions. We also found apparent shifts from the NOx-saturated regime to the transition regime (or the transition regime to the NOx-limited regime) over the major cities in the western United States. In contrast, rural areas, especially in the east-southeastern United States, exhibit a decreased HCHO/NO2 column ratio by -1.30 ± 1.71 with a reduction in HCHO column primarily driven by meteorology, becoming sensitive to VOC emissions. Results show that incorporating satellite observations into numerical modeling could help policymakers implement appropriate emission control policies for O3 pollution.

HCHO/NO2 factorInverse modelingOzone chemical regi↗

The INSTEP Monitoring Network: Merging High-and-Low Cost Measurements to Characterize California Wildfires

Despite challenges with data quality and scope, low-cost sensor networks have skyrocketed in popularity over the last 15 years, making air quality data available on refined spatial scales. More recently, studies have leveraged both high and low-quality instruments to create stronger “hybrid” models, with most studies focusing on particulate matter. Low-cost measurements typically represent ground-level emissions only, providing context for human health issues from climate change-driven events such as wildfires. Since low-cost sensors’ capabilities are localized, daily events and microclimates tend to dominate the data rather than larger regional or atmospheric trends. Likewise, their low cost explains their high uncertainty. In contrast, some regulatory-grade instruments produce column measurements as well, providing reliable information on a broader scope. To bridge this gap while expanding into gas-phase measurements, we deployed 12 air quality sensor packages in California, USA during the 2022 wildfire season. These INSTEP (Inexpensive Network Sensor Technology Exploring Pollution) monitors measure carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and several hydrocarbons including methane (CH4) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Half of the monitors were co-located with remote sensing spectrometers: NASA Pandora and Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). The overlap in pollutants includes NO2, O3, and HCHO between the INSTEP monitors and the Pandora column measurements. TCCON covers column CO, CO2, and CH4, rounding out our comparison. Most of the monitors were distributed throughout the San Francisco Bay area, and an additional three were located within 100 km of Los Angeles. The sites ranged in geographic and population characteristics, including desert, mountainous, coastal, and urban locations. Since varying environmental conditions such as temperature and pressure are known to challenge sensor performance, we will apply newer sensor “calibration” techniques meant to combat this. We will normalize our sensor signals by z-scoring them prior to applying a single calibration model in the form of multivariate linear regression or an artificial neural network. While this technique has been validated for the hydrocarbon and ozone sensor types (metal oxide), it has not yet been tested on electrochemical and non-dispersive infrared sensors, which are also used in the INSTEP monitors. This will serve as a test to see if this normalization technique – or another – is most effective in accounting for environmental differences among sensors. Related data analysis efforts have found success with a variety of geospatial analysis techniques, including weighted network models in which high-quality instruments are given higher weights than their low-cost counterparts. Our preliminary analysis will focus on kriging, which uses a Gaussian algorithm to assign weights, providing estimated pollution levels at locations between monitors. Smoke trajectory and evolution will also be considered using both measurement types. We also aim to baseline subtract our emission estimates from each region to determine which portion of emissions are regional and local, further characterizing burn differences in northern and southern California fires. Future directions include using INSTEP jointly with TEMPO satellite data, and mobile deployments on aircraft and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV).

Low-cost sensors↗

Future Arctic (Wild) Fires

Wildland fires in the boreal and Arctic are increasing in frequency and severity, with extreme fire seasons documented across the Pan-Arctic and boreal in five of the last seven years – including an early start to extreme fires in 2023.Human-caused and wildland fires above 60°N were larger sources of black carbon and methane than current modeled estimates of anthropogenic sectors like energy extraction and transportation. Further, these large boreal and Arctic fires have the potential to release large amounts of carbon dioxide and subsequent methane emissions from degraded permafrost and peat fires, as well as negatively impacting air quality thousands of miles south. By end of this century, current extreme fire years in the Arctic will likely be a normal fire year for much of Greenland, North America, Northern Europe, and Eurasia. As a new horizon in global wildland fire science, novel scientific pathways must be undertaken to improve our understanding and management of wildfires in the High Northern Latitudes – including understanding how NASA and U.S. researchers can enhance collaboration and develop near-real-time fire and smoke monitoring and modeling between North American and European ecology, fire, and climate scientists and stakeholders. Issues of inclusion, diversity, and equity are inherent to understanding fire ecology, impacts, and management in the Arctic and boreal, including centering and deferring to Indigenous and local communities when constructing best management practices.

Future↗

Generating Global CH4 NASA GEOS Product by Assimilating TROPOMI

Radiative properties of methane (CH4) significantly contribute to climate change and the recent acceleration of global CH4 growth requires thorough investigation into its causes. Examination of temporal and spatial CH4 variability is crucial for better understanding the shifts that are currently taking place. Integrating different CH4 observations to create a reliable, easily to use global atmospheric CH4 product could contribute to assessment of emissions processes, but remains challenging due to the lack of long satellite data records. Here we present the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) based global CH4 product constrained by atmospheric transport from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and assimilated CH4 from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). This product uses the Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) component of the GEOS capability, which has been expanded and generalized to assimilate any satellite, ground-based, or in situ observation of atmospheric composition that can be expressed as a vertical sounding or point sample. The product is similar to the one generated by assimilating carbon dioxide (CO2) data into GEOS from Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2): OCO-2 GEOS Level 3 daily and monthly, 0.5x0.625 assimilated CO2 V10r. The preliminary product is investigated using a variety of quality check approaches with the help of in situ observations to examine bias correction, error inflation, and performance of the assimilation system. Potential applications of this approach include support for interpretation of high-resolution point source detection approaches, climate and greenhouse gas reanalyses, and boundary conditions for regional modeling approaches.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Four Years of Airborne Measurements of Wildfire Emissions in California, with a Focus on the Evolution of Emissions During the Soberanes Megafire

Biomass burning is an important source of trace gases and particles which can influence air quality on local, regional, and global scales. With wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, characterizing wildfire emissions and their evolution is vital. In this work we report in situ airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) from nine wildfire events in California between 2013 and 2016, which were sampled as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) based at NASA Ames Research Center. One of those fires, the Soberanes Megafire, began on 22 July 2016 and burned for three months. During that time, five flights were executed to sample emissions near and downwind of the Soberanes wildfire. In situ data are used to determine enhancement ratios (ERs), or excess mixing ratio relative to CO2, as well as assess O3 production from the fire. Changes in the emissions as a function of fire evolution are explored. Air quality impacts downwind of the fire are addressed using ground-based monitoring site data, satellite smoke products, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model.

Iraci, Laura T.↗

Surface Ozone in the Colorado Northern Front Range and the Influence of Oil and Gas Development During FRAPPE/DISCOVER-AQ in Summer 2014

High mixing ratios of ozone (O3) in the northern Front Range (NFR) of Colorado are not limited to the urban Denver area but were also observed in rural areas where oil and gas activity is the primary source of O3 precursors. On individual days, oil and gas O3 precursors can contribute in excess of 30 ppb to O3 growth and can lead to exceedances of the EPA O3 National Ambient Air Quality Standard. Data used in this study were gathered from continuous surface O3 monitors for June-August 2013-2015 as well as additional flask measurements and mobile laboratories that were part of the FRAPPE/DISCOVER-AQ field campaign of July-August 2014. Overall observed O3 levels during the summer of 2014 were lower than in 2013, likely due to cooler and damper weather than an average summer. This study determined the median hourly surface O3 mixing ratio in the NFR on summer days with limited photochemical production to be approximately 45-55 ppb. Mobile laboratory and flask data collected on three days provide representative case studies of different O3 formation environments in and around Greeley, Colorado. Observations of several gases (including methane, ethane, CO, nitrous oxide) along with O3 are used to identify sources of O3 precursor emissions. A July 23 survey demonstrated low O3 (45-60 ppb) while August 3 and August 13 surveys recorded O3 levels of 75-80 ppb or more. August 3 exemplifies influence of moderate urban and high oil and gas O3 precursor emissions. August 13 demonstrates high oil and gas emissions, low agricultural emissions, and CO measurements that were well correlated with ethane from oil and gas, suggesting an oil and gas related activity as a NOx and O3 precursor source. Low isoprene levels indicated that they were not a significant contributor to O3 precursors measured during the case studies.

Pollution↗

Aerodyne Research mobile infrared methane monitor

An improved real-time methane monitor based on infrared absorption of the 3.39 micron line of a HeNe laser is described. Real time in situ measurement of methane has important applications in stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, especially when high accuracy measurements can be made rapidly, providing fine spatial-scale information. The methane instrument provides 5 ppb resolution in a 1 sec averaging time. A key feature in this instrument is the use of magnetic (Zeeman) broadening to achieve continuous tunability with constant output power over a range of 0.017/cm. The instruments optical absorption path length is 47 m through sampled air held at 50 torr in a multipass cell of the Herriott (off-axis resonator) type. A microprocessor controls laser frequency and amplitude and collects data with minimal operator attention. The instrument recently has been used to measure methane emissions from a variety of natural and artificial terrestrial sources.

Mcmanus, J. B.↗

Advanced Small Rocket Chambers. Basic Program and Option 2: Fundamental Processes and Material Evaluation

Propellants, chamber materials, and processes for fabrication of small high performance radiation cooled liquid rocket engines were evaluated to determine candidates for eventual demonstration in flight-type thrusters. Both storable and cryogenic propellant systems were considered. The storable propellant systems chosen for further study were nitrogen tetroxide oxidizer with either hydrazine or monomethylhydrazine as fuel. The cryogenic propellants chosen were oxygen with either hydrogen or methane as fuel. Chamber material candidates were chemical vapor deposition (CVD) rhenium protected from oxidation by CVD iridium for the chamber hot section, and film cooled wrought platinum-rhodium or regeneratively cooled stainless steel for the front end section exposed to partially reacted propellants. Laser diagnostics of the combustion products near the hot chamber surface and measurements at the surface layer were performed in a collaborative program at Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA. The Material Sample Test Apparatus, a laboratory system to simulate the combustion environment in terms of gas and material temperature, composition, and pressure up to 6 Atm, was developed for these studies. Rocket engine simulator studies were conducted to evaluate the materials under simulated combustor flow conditions, in the diagnostic test chamber. These tests used the exhaust species measurement system, a device developed to monitor optically species composition and concentration in the chamber and exhaust by emission and absorption measurements.

Jassowski, Donald M.↗

The potential impact on atmospheric ozone and temperature of increasing trace gas concentrations

The response of the atmosphere to emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chlorocarbons, and to increasing concentrations of other radiatively active trace gases such as CO2, CH4, and N2O is calculated by a coupled chemical-radiative transport one-dimensional model. It is shown that significant reductions in the ozone concentration and in the temperature are expected in the upper stratosphere as a result of increasing concentrations of active chlorine produced by photodecomposition of the CFCs. The ozone content is expected to increase in the troposphere, as a consequence of increasing concentrations of methane and nitrogen oxides. Due to enhanced greenhouse effects, the Earth's surface should warm up by several degrees. The amplitude and even the sign of future changes in the ozone column are difficult to predict as they are strongly scenario-dependent. An early detection system to prevent noticeable ozone changes as a result of increasing concentrations of source gases should thus be based on a continuous monitoring of the ozone amount in the upper stratosphere rather than on measurements of the ozone column only. Measurements of NOx, Clx, and HOx are also required for unambiguous trend detection and interpretation.

Brasseur, G.↗

Future Lightning Instruments for Weather and Climate Monitoring From LEO

Lightning is not only a natural hazard, but it also holds information about physical processes at work in deep convection and influences atmospheric oxidants that modulate ozone and methane. Hence, spaceborne lightning observations are essential for monitoring extreme events and feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. Low-Earth orbiting (LEO) lightning mapping instruments established a 25-year record of global lightning activity and resulted in a wealth of studies that motivated its designation as an Essential Climate Variable by the World Meteorological Organization. Although geostationary observations of lightning have become increasingly available since 2017, LEO lightning mappers continue to serve critical needs given their unique vantage point and acceptance as a unifying reference for geostationary lightning mapper and ground-based global lightning datasets. At the close of 2023, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) will cease operations on the International Space Station, which introduces a critical gap in LEO-based monitoring of global lightning activity. To address this need, NASA is developing new lightning mapping technology that enables future LEO-based satellite missions. Existing LEO-based lightning mappers rely on narrowband optical emissions centered on 777.4-nm and detectors that capture 500 images per second to detect lightning both day and night. Lightning can also produce optical emissions in a narrowband centered on 337-nm without any corresponding emissions at the traditionally used near-infrared (NIR) wavelength. These near-ultraviolet (UV) emissions are associated with earlier stage electrical breakdown (e.g., streamers), may frequent intense regions of deep convective storms, and may be a significant source of nitrogen oxide production in the upper atmosphere. A new lightning mapping instrument called the CubeSat Lightning Imaging and Detection Experiment (CLIDE) is being designed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to use high-speed, scientific CMOS image sensors capable of detecting lightning’s transient optical emissions in the near-UV and NIR during both daylit and nighttime scenes. This will extend the record of global lightning activity and help pave the way for future small satellite missions that combine radio and optical lightning detectors to obtain novel three-dimensional maps of lightning on a global scale, which can revolutionize the way lightning is used to monitor weather and understand changes in climate.

lightning↗

Airborne Observations of Ozone and Other Trace Gases Upwind of National Parks in California and Nevada

The Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) is a research project based at Moffett Field, CA, which collects airborne measurements of ozone, carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, and formaldehyde, as well as 3-D winds, temperature, pressure, and location. Since its first science flight in 2011, AJAX has developed a wide a variety of mission types, combining vertical profiles (from approximately 8 km to near surface), boundary layer legs, and plume sampling as needed. With an ongoing five-year data set, the team has sampled over 160 vertical profiles, a dozen wildfires, and numerous stratospheric ozone intrusions. Our largest data collection includes 55 vertical profiles at Railroad Valley, NV, approximately 100 miles southwest of Great Basin National Park, and many of those flights include comparisons to surface monitors in the Nevada Rural Ozone Initiative network. We have also collected a smaller set of measurements northwest of Joshua Tree National Park, and are looking to develop partnerships that can put this data to use to assess or improve air quality in nearby Parks. AJAX also studies the plumes emitted by wildfires in California, as most emissions inventories are based on prescribed fires. We have sampled a dozen fires, and results will be presented from several, including the Rim (2013), Soberanes and Cedar (2016) Fires.

Ozone↗