Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Minimum risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Stability evaluation and mitigation strategies in advanced tokamaks using 3D MHD spectroscopy

Multi-modal, active 3D MHD spectroscopy is applied in high-performance advanced tokamak scenarios to study their stability time evolution, revealing an intriguing dependence on both and . A tailored applied 3D field provides a 3D plasma response to extract the growth rate of the least stable mode. The estimated growth rate finds a decrease in stability when the minimum in the safety factor (q) passes through 2.0 and reveals inherent risks of crossing an additional rational surface at integer q min , even above the usual q = 1 sawtooth condition. Based on this result, the potential scenario in which q min ~ 2 can be safely crossed during a more stable lower β N phase was investigated, and the improved stability of this scenario is confirmed by the estimated growth rate. This shows that 3D MHD spectroscopy can offer insights into strategies for improving stability by identifying the vulnerable aspects of such scenarios. In addition, the method highlights its potential for instability avoidance by enabling early detection of multiple modes, even before magnetic coils can measure them. The measured growth rate by the 3D MHD spectroscopy shows its reliability by exhibiting a correlation with the programmed rises in plasma beta across various high β N and high q min discharges. In addition, this method is successfully applied during rapidly evolving I p ramp-up phases, a key part of the scenario development. By achieving reasonable growth rate measurements at high-performance scenario developments, this technique contributes to the development of advanced diagnostic tools for tokamak scenario stability, which will help identify an effective pathway to stable, high-performance scenarios.

Yang, S. M. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (↗

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MRCI Subtask 2.4/2.5: Regional/Subregional Analysis and Risk Assessment Final Technical Summary Report

The objective of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) project is to implement a collaborative Regional Initiative (RI) to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture, and storage (CCS) in the Midwest-Northeastern quadrant of the United States. This report is a Technical Summary report describing work performed on Tasks 2.4 (Conducting Regional/Subregional Analysis) and 2.5 (Assessing and Managing Risk) during the MRCI project. In Task 2.4, detailed numerical reservoir simulation models were developed for selected carbon storage (CS) systems identified under Task 2.1 (Battelle, 2021a) in the MRCI study area. The objective of Task 2.4 is to demonstrate a dynamic modeling methodology for evaluating the suitability of the (selected) CS systems in the MRCI region for hosting a commercial-scale storage project. In this study, CO2 injectivity was evaluated for different CS systems with an annual injection rate of 1 million metric tonnes (MMT) of CO2 considered as the minimum requirement for a commercial scale project. The objective of Task 2.5 is to assess key risks associated with storing CO2 in the different CS systems across the MRCI region and to demonstrate a method(s) for assessing these risks that may be used by developers of future CO2 storage projects in the region. The risk analysis was limited to evaluating two types of leakage risks (i.e., wellbore leakage, flow across unfractured caprock) at three modeled sites considered in Task 2.4.

MRCI,Report,Summary,Technical Challenges,dynamic m↗

Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate-risk management

People around the world seek climate-risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate-risk services should provide, many expect non-commercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate-risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate-risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code despite this being a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that non-commercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate-risk management.

Open Science↗

Process design and techno-economic analysis for bio-based graphite and liquid hydrocarbons production from lignocellulosic biomass

The worldwide demand for graphite, as the main anode material for Li-ion batteries, is expected to double by 2028 since it supports the use of electricity, including transient renewable sources, for energy storage, sustainable mobility, and automation. However, the dependence on non-renewable and external resources jeopardizes the world supply chain. This study explores the technical and economic performance of transforming lignocellulosic biomass into biographite and fuel-grade hydrocarbons through pyrolysis bio-oil upgrading. According to simulation results, the total power demand for the biorefinery reached 10,784 kWh per tonne of biographite, of which 36 % can be supplied by the heat integration network and power plant. Sensitivity and risk analyses were conducted to evaluate the economics, with process yields identified as the most relevant indicators to the minimum selling price (MSP). The analysis revealed a promising cost-competitive range for biographite MSP against fossil-based graphite (medium quality synthetic graphite Chinese market price ~$\$$4.2/kg). Case D, which includes biofuels as a byproduct, presents the best metrics, reaching a MSP of $\$$3.3/kg of anode-grade biographite with a profit margin of 27 %. While including biofuels in the product slate provides the best economic performance, the uncertainty associated with the big capital investment makes its risk 13 % higher to attain an IRR >20 % than the case in which biographite is produced as a standalone product. Overall, this study demonstrates that integrated biorefineries can produce a cost-competitive bio-based anode material for Li-ion batteries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory

Kier + Wright, as Qualified SWPPP Developer (QSD), puts forth this Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory facility (Project) located at Sandia National Laboratories, 7011 East Avenue, CA. The property is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, and managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC. The project proposes converting an asphalt parking lot into a new high bay machine shop building and a low bay office building. Per the California State Water Resources Control Board’s (California State Water Board) Construction General Permit (CGP), a SWPPP is required when 1 acre or more of land is disturbed. The project site area of 1.6 acres exceeds the minimum acreage threshold of 1 acre and therefore requires SWPPP implementation. QSD has determined the sediment risk for this project, based on soil type at the site and starting and ending dates of construction, to be low (Section 3.4.1 and Appendix B). Receiving water for this project is the Arroyo Seco. QSD has determined the Arroyo Seco to be a high-risk receiving water because it has the three beneficial uses of “spawn”, “cold”, and “migratory” (Sections 3.3 and 3.4.2 and Appendix B). QSD has determined the overall risk level for the site to be Risk Level 2, based on a combination of low sediment risk and high receiving water risk (Appendix B). As such, QSD has delineated a variety of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be employed during project construction to reduce or eliminate pollutants in stormwater runoff or any other discharges from the Project site. In addition to site-specific BMPs, this SWPPP report provides instruction for on site monitoring. Electronic copies of required documentation such as inspection reports, REAPs, annual report documentation, etc. shall be submitted to NTESS Sandia Delegated Representative via Newforma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for Site Wide Landscaping Project

Kier + Wright, as Qualified SWPPP Developer (QSD), puts forth this Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the SNL/CA Site Landscaping Project at Sandia National Laboratories/California (SNL/CA), 7011 East Avenue, Livermore, California (SNL/CA). The property is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, and managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia (NTESS), LLC. The project proposes landscape improvements throughout SNL/CA. Per the California State Water Resources Control Board’s (California State Water Board) Construction General Permit (CGP), a SWPPP is required when 1 acre or more of land is disturbed. The project site area exceeds the minimum acreage threshold of 1 acre and therefore requires SWPPP implementation. QSD has determined the sediment risk for this project, based on soil type at the site and starting and ending dates of construction, to be low (Section 3.4.1 and Appendix B). Receiving water for this project is the Arroyo Seco. QSD has determined the Arroyo Seco to be a high-risk receiving water because it has the three beneficial uses of “spawn”, “cold”, and “migratory” (Sections 3.3 and 3.4.2 and Appendix B). QSD has determined the overall risk level for the site to be Risk Level 2, based on a combination of low sediment risk and high receiving water risk (Appendix B). As such, QSD has delineated a variety of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be employed during project construction to reduce or eliminate pollutants in stormwater runoff or any other discharges from the Project site. In addition to site-specific BMPs, this SWPPP report provides instruction for on site monitoring. Electronic copies of required documentation such as inspection reports, REAPs, annual report documentation, etc. shall be submitted to NTESS Sandia Delegated Representative via Newforma.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

FEM Modeling and Simulation of 2-D High Specific Heat Nb 3 Sn Wires

In the past few years, new high specific heat Nb 3 Sn wires have gained much focus at FNAL. Indeed, they have proved to be more stable against thermal perturbations with respect to standard wires. Nevertheless, a trade off exists between their thermal efficiency and production feasibility. In this report I describe the thermal and structural models that I have developed by exploiting ANSYS Mechanical APDL ® , which I got acquainted with at the beginning of my training. The aim has been to optimize the location of high specific heat elements in order to obtain an optimal thermal stability, while minimizing the risk of wire breakage during drawing. FEM results are compared with experimental ones made beforehand. Other minimum quench energy (MQE) thermal models have been developed for expected new experimental results. New data may improve the understanding of the embedded physical uncertainties in the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy Improvements of Fire Station 71

Since 2018, the City of Shawnee, Kansas has completed two phases of the State of Kansas Facility Conservation Improvement Program (FCIP), an initiative that guarantees operational cost and energy savings through targeted construction improvements on City facilities and infrastructure. The City is currently in the third phase of this FCIP, where one of the projects included an investment in energy improvements for Fire Station 71 (FS 71). The City partnered with Navitas, an Energy Service Company (ESCO), to implement a Photovoltaic Solar Array on FS71. The purpose of this project was to invest in sustainable building improvements with Energy Conservation Measures (ECM) to bring cost savings to the City and to provide sustainable benefits to the residents of Shawnee. In the first task of the project, Navitas collaborated with the City of Shawnee and the Community Development Department to determine the optimal layout and schedule for the installation of the solar array on FS 71. In the second task of the project, Navitas installed the 99.8 kW DC Photovoltaic solar array system. This system installation comprised of racking, inverters, optimizers, load center, and disconnect, which were all installed at a total ECM price of $\$$247,948. The third task focused on start-up and commissioning of the array. Navitas installed a real-time data analytics information management system integrated with utility meters, which evaluates the operations of the utility system and verifies operation of equipment and ensures optimum operation for energy efficiency. In the final task of this project, this analytics system was used for monitoring and verification, which will continue to be used to evaluate the success of the project for the coming years. The primary goal of the project was to install the 99.8 kW DC PV solar array at FS 71 to demonstrate the viability of solar energy systems in essential municipal facilities. Fire stations are energy demanding structures, as they require a constant intake of power and have a high baseline energy usage. The success of solar arrays on a fire station exemplifies their energy efficiency and effectiveness and displays their potential for application on other city facilities. By installing a solar array at such a facility, the City sought not only to offset electricity usage but also to serve as a model for ECMs in other municipal facilities and infrastructure projects. From an economic standpoint, this project demonstrates the feasibility of renewable energy at the municipal level. The total project cost of $\$$247,948 was split evenly between city funds and award funding, minimizing financial risk while ensuring guaranteed long-term savings. Any excess savings that are beyond the guaranteed minimums remain with the city, which enables future investment in sustainable energy initiatives. This project provides many benefits to the public. In addition to reducing the environmental footprint of city operations, it lowers taxpayer-funded utility spending and improves the energy security of a critical facility. The knowledge gained from this implementation motivates the City to focus on similar efforts across other public facilities in future FCIP phases and other City projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Paintable Reflective Coatings (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road LEEP, the Cypris Materials project team conducted research on the viability of a new reflective coating technology based on a novel advanced materials platform. Building off of nearly a decade of academic research spanning multiple institutions, research efforts were designed to tackle the familiar problem of maturing a project into a minimum viable product. Fundamental technologies spawned from academic research are fraught with both scientific and technical risk, as the barriers to a successful peer reviewed publication are much lower than a commercial product with a paying customer base. It is common, especially when maturing chemical or material innovations, to encounter a number of critical assumptions or features that support the performance of the technology in an unsustainable fashion. At the outset of the project, the platform technology of Cypris Materials was no different. Specific research thrusts regarding scale-up, process optimization, technoeconomic modeling, market specific weathering performance, and market specific optical performance were tackled during the CRADA project.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

VFA Biorefinery Design for Informed Production of Ground and Aviation Fuels

The rising demand for low-carbon intensity fuel options requires evaluation of a system which can support their production economically and sustainably. Volatile fatty acids (VFAs) ranging from C2 to C8 can be derived in high yield from arrested anaerobic digestion of biomass. This talk provides an overview of our work in which we upgrade wet waste-derived VFAs using ketonization to elongate their carbon backbone to reach a range relevant to jet or diesel fuels. Kinetic models were used to predict ketone profiles from varying VFA profiles, thereby informing potential carbon flow to either (a) mixed paraffins for use in diesel or aviation fuel, or (b) ethers for use in diesel fuel. To do this, the anticipated products were screened for critical fuel characteristics using predictive tools. The criteria for neat and blended bioblendstocks were chosen based on conventional petrofuel requirements, and they were applied to inform fuel targets, identify limiting characteristics, and guide conversion development. While paraffins can serve as either diesel or aviation fuels, the latter has stringent criteria which include a precise distillation curve range tied to carbon distribution. Fuels which fall outside this range typically fail to meet other property metrics, and as such flashpoint and viscosity were identified as potentially limiting properties of this VFA aviation fuel. However, paraffin fractions which fall outside aviation criteria may meet diesel fuel requirements, which are looser except for the flashpoint minimum. Flashpoint was also a concern for smaller VFA diesel ethers, which posed an additional oxygenate risk of high water solubility. This fuel-informed conversion design process was demonstrated through production of paraffins with reduced sooting as compared to petrodiesel (~34%), and increased renewable aviation fuel blend levels (>70%). VFA-derived ethers improved petrodiesel by increasing fuel autoignition quality by 56% and reducing sooting by 86%. These VFA aviation and diesel fuels could enable greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions of over 165% and 50%, respectively, relative to their purely fossil-derived counterparts. Collectively, this work provides (i) an overview of how we leveraged the flexibility of VFAs for fuel production; and (ii) insight into the potential of a VFA biorefinery to accommodate varied feed and fuel applications, while also considering the merit of tailored fuel production pathways and GHG reduction potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Microgrid Conceptual Design Guidebook | 2022

This guide is meant to assist communities – from residents to energy experts to decision makers – in developing a conceptual microgrid design that meets site-specific energy resilience goals. Using the framework described in this guidebook, stakeholders can come together and start to quantify site-specific vulnerabilities, identify the most significant risks to delivery of electricity, and establish electric outage tolerances across the community. In addition to establishing minimum service needs, this framework encourages communities to consider broader sustainability goals and policy constraints and begin to estimate up-front costs associated with the installation of alternative microgrid solutions. The framework guides a community through data collection and a high-level assessment of its needs, constraints, and priorities, prior to engaging engineers, vendors, and contractors. The first sections of this guidebook provide a high-level primer on electric systems. The latter sections include guidance for step-by-step data gathering and analysis of site conditions. The ultimate product resulting from the stepwise approach is a conceptual microgrid design. A conceptual design is defined as an initial design (10%-20% complete) that considers the specific threats, needs, limitations, and investment options for a given location. Going through this exercise and developing the conceptual microgrid design as a community ensures the same community members who will ultimately live with the solution are the developers of its foundational design. Often, these are also the very same people who understand system tolerances and needs the best and are therefore the ideal candidates for establishing these criteria. Especially when it comes to evaluating critical infrastructure, it is the community that best understands the most critical services. The framework is intended to facilitate a systematic approach to planning for resilience and provide a deeper understanding of how to use a framework to make decisions around microgrid solutions. Like many processes where tradeoffs need to be considered, this is often an iterative process. If this guide serves to help educate and empower communities who are beginning the process of deploying a microgrid, it has met the goal of its authors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal Financing Decision in a Contract Food Supply Chain with Capital Constraint

To solve the financing problem of the food producers, we consider a two‐echelon contract food supply chain composed of a family farm with capital constraints and a food processing enterprise. With no capital constraints as the benchmark model, we analyze optimal decisions of the family farm and the food processing enterprise in the case of bank financing with bank participation only and bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation. Then, we discuss how the risk of yield uncertainty influences the optimal decisions and profits of the family farm and the food processing enterprise under different financing situation. Meanwhile, the reason why the government subsidizes agriculture is explored, and the policy of minimum purchase price of the food is initiated when the market price is too low. Finally, the numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented. The results show that the bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation improves the welfare of supply chain members more obviously than the bank financing with bank participation only; when the rice price is too low, the policy of minimum purchase price of food is initiated, which increases the revenue and the growing enthusiasm of the family farm; the profits of the family farm and the food processing enterprise will decrease as the risk of yield uncertainty increases in the case of bank financing, and the risk of yield uncertainty will be reduced for the family farm when bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation.

Luo, Ying (ORCID:0000000158101443)↗

Insights on Wind Turbine Maintenance From the Usage History of a General Electric Transportation Systems Gearbox

Recently, micropitting that occurred in a wind turbine gearbox has been used as a case study of the International Organization for Standardization technical specification ISO/TS 6336-22. This technical specification contains a proposed calculation of risk of micropitting in gear sets, in terms of a safety factor based on the ratio of the minimum to the permissible specific lubricant film thickness. This report summarizes the operational history of the micropitted gearbox for future case studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Monitoring of Unvented Roofs with Fibrous Insulation, Diffusion Vents, and Interior Vapor Control in a Cold Climate

Unvented roof assemblies have been accepted in North American building codes since 2007; code-compliant construction calls for a minimum thickness of “air-impermeable insulation” (based on climate zone) to avoid cold-weather condensation and moisture risks. This is typically implemented with polyurethane spray foam insulation; however, negatives of this material include high first cost and possible adverse environmental impacts. Implementing unvented roofs in a moisture-safe manner with air-permeable fibrous fill insulations (e.g., fiberglass or cellulose) could potentially reduce the first cost of unvented roof designs, allowing for more widespread use. Building unvented roofs in a cost-effective, airtight, and moisture-safe manner opens up options for high-performance house designers and builders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Spinal Cord Dose Tolerance to Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Spinal cord tolerance data for stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) were extracted from published reports, reviewed, and modelled. For de novo SBRT delivered in 1 to 5 fractions, the following spinal cord point maximum doses (D{sub max}) are estimated to be associated with a 1% to 5% risk of radiation myelopathy (RM): 12.4 to 14.0 Gy in 1 fraction, 17.0 Gy in 2 fractions, 20.3 Gy in 3 fractions, 23.0 Gy in 4 fractions, and 25.3 Gy in 5 fractions. For reirradiation SBRT delivered in 1 to 5 fractions, reported factors associated with a lower risk of RM include cumulative thecal sac equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions with an alpha/beta of 2 (EQD2{sub 2}) D{sub max} ≤70 Gy; SBRT thecal sac EQD2{sub 2} D{sub max} ≤25 Gy, thecal sac SBRT EQD2{sub 2} D{sub max} to cumulative EQD2{sub 2} D{sub max} ratio ≤0.5, and a minimum time interval to reirradiation of ≥5 months. Larger studies containing complete institutional cohorts with dosimetric data of patients treated with spine SBRT, with and without RM, are required to refine RM risk estimates.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Project No. 5: Evaluating Dredged Materials for Energy Storage Applications with Economic and Carbon Benefits (CRADA Final Report)

The New York Power Authority (NYPA) is committed to supporting the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) through its VISION2030 strategic plan. As a clean energy provider, NYPA is seeking to demonstrate leadership in every aspect of its business by taking a comprehensive approach to sustainability management and integrating sustainability principles into day-to-day decision-making. This effort includes planning for climate resilience through projects that mitigate climate risk in our operations and prioritize climate opportunities in our investments. Canal Corporation, a subsidiary of NYPA, is charged with maintaining minimum water depths for navigation in the Cayuga-Seneca, Champlain, Erie and Oswego Canals. In order to do so, an average volume of 280,000 cubic yards of sediment is dredged annually and held in Upland Disposal Sites (UDS) permitted by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). The required on-land storage at UDSes are nearing capacity, and disposal opportunities are costly, both economically and environmentally. Novel energy storage technology developed by NREL provides an opportunity for meeting NYPA's need to find reuse options for dredged materials and commitment to providing clean reliable energy. This would also support NYPA's goal of developing 300 MW of utility scale storage and enabling 150 MW of distributed storage by 2030. NREL will consult NYPA on the environmental and economic impact of reusing dredged materials as useful commodities such as energy storage media, construction sand or industrial uses. Test and material characterization methods will be based on current NREL storage material characterization approaches. NREL worked with NYPA on sample preparation, material testing, test results analysis. Test and material characterization methods were based on current NREL storage material characterization approaches. The team analyzed the environmental and economic impact of reusing dredged materials as useful commodities such as energy storage media, construction sand or industrial uses. The test and analysis works have achieved the project goal in characterizing NYPA dredging materials and verifying their various uses including construction sand and thermal energy storage media. Uses of dredging materials as useful materials will bring economic and environmental benefits and avoid disposal costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗