Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo:Accelerating Bayesian Inference Model Selection and Uncertainty Quantification.
Abstract not provided.
Catanach, Thomas Anthony↗
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ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence
ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
ML-based Micro-CT SOFC Microstructure Models (from Kent 2026 Microstructural Augmentation paper)
Overview -------------------------- This repository contains datasets from the manuscript **"Enhanced Generalizability to Deep-Learning Quantification of 3D Microstructural Characteristics through Microstructurally Aware Augmentation of Scarce Data"** (*William F. Kent, Rochan Bajpai, Rachel C. Kurchin, William K. Epting, Harry W. Abernathy, Paul A. Salvador. Submitted 2026*). The methods are also described in the dissertation **Data Intensive Analysis of Solid Oxide Cell Microstructures** (*Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 2025*). The datasets here are trained convolutional neural network (CNN) models for predicting key microstructural properties of solid oxide cell (SOC) electrodes from low-res, 2-channel 3D images, as well as some helpful code. The parameters for input images are provided in the paper. Sample data is provided in the file `Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples` - that particular data was used to train `anode_all_aug.pth` and will work most accurately with that model. Please familiarize yourself with all caveats on accuracy and applicability, as detailed in the associated paper. Usage -------------------------- The basic usage is as follows, assuming `model_fn` is the path to the .pth file, and `X` is 2-channel input image(s) of the proper dimensions (either one image of shape `[2,12,24,24]`, or a batch of N input images of shape `[N,2,12,24,24]`): from CNN_inferencer import load_model_for_inference model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) y_predicted = model(X) The model object automatically handles input scaling and output de-scaling based on the way the models were trained - in other words, pass in a 2-channel micro-CT image, and it will output microstructural property values in real units. ## Other model object attributes Note that model has useful attributes other than its forward pass model(X). * `model.output_descaler` - returns the output descaler object. Model does the de-scaling when generating inferences, but you may want to re-use this de-scaler on other values to e.g. compare predictions to ground truth from already-scaled training data. * `model.prop_names` - Gives the property names of the predicted y values, in order. Only exists if there's an output scaler as part of the model object, which there will be in the models provided here. ## Usage with sample data Here is a short script to use with the included sample data. from CNN_inferencer import display_predictions, load_model_for_inference, calculate_mape, parity_plot import h5py import numpy as np model_fn = 'anode_all_aug.pth' data_fn = 'Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples.h5' N_samples = 200 figure_outdir = '.' model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) with h5py.File(data_fn,'r') as f: XX = f['X'] #These are the 2-channel 3D images yy = f['y'] #These are the ground-truth microstructural properties, but they have been scaled for training - need to de-scale below N = XX.shape[0] #How many images total in the input data file #Run inferences on N_samples random samples from XX. #Run in a batch, much more efficient than one at a time. ii = np.random.choice(N,N_samples,replace=False) ii.sort() y_pred = model(XX[ii]) #Get the original/true (but normalized/scaled) values from the training dataset... #Because they were normalized, they are not in real units yet. So let's also de-scale them using model.output_scaler. y_true = model.output_scaler.transform(yy[ii]) #Let's display actual values for just 5 random ones for i in np.random.choice(N_samples,5,replace=False): display_predictions(y_true[i], y_pred[i], model.prop_names) #Make parity plots for each property (ground truth vs predicted values) #Also label each plot with the mean abs. percent error (MAPE) of the predicted values for i,key in enumerate(model.prop_names): mape = calculate_mape(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i]) parity_plot(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i], figure_outdir, key, extra_title=f' ({mape:.2f}% MAPE)')
3D microstructure↗
Model independent inference of the expansion history and implications for the growth of structure
Not Available
Joudaki, Shahab↗
Analyses Made to Order: Using Transformation to Rapidly Configure a Multidisciplinary Environment
Aerospace problems are highly multidisciplinary. Four or more major disciplines are involved in analyzing any particular vehicle. Moreover, the choice of implementation technology of various subsystems can lead to a change of leading domain or reformation of the driving equations. An excellent example is the change of expertise required to consider aircraft built from composite or metallic structures, or those propelled by chemical or electrical thrusters. Another example is in the major reconfiguration of handling and stability equations with different control surface configuration (e.g., canards, t-tail v four-post tail). Combinatorial problems are also commonplace anytime that a major system is to be designed. If there are only 5 attributes of a design to consider with 4 different options, this is already 1024 options. Adding just 5 more dimensions to the study explodes the space to over one million. Even generous assumptions like the idea that only 10% of the combinations are physically feasible can only contain the problem for so long. To make matters worse, the simple number of combinations is only the beginning. Combining the issue of trade space size with the need to reformulate the design problem for many of the possibilities makes life exponentially more difficult. Advances in software modeling approaches have led to the development of model-driven architecture. This approach uses the transformation of models into inferred models (e.g. inferred execution traces from state machines) or the skeletons for code generation. When the emphasis on transformation is applied to aerospace, it becomes possible to exploit redundancy in the information specified in multiple domain models into a unified system model. F1urther, it becomes possible to overcome the combinatorial nature of specifying integrated system behavior by manually combining the equations governing a given component technology. Transformations from a system specification combined with a system-analysis mapping specification enable one-click combination of domain analyses. This is a flexibility that has been missing from many engineering codes, which often entangle design specification and physical examination much more than is required to conduct the analysis. This capability has been investigated and cultivated within the DARPA F6 program by a team of JPL and Phoenix Integration engineers building the Adapatable Systems Design and Analysis (ASDA) framework. By embracing system modeling with SysML and the Query-View-Transformation (QVT) language, the ASDA team has been able to build a flexible, easily reconfigurable framework for building up and solving large tradespaces. Examples of application and lessons learned in building the framework will be described in this paper. In addition, the motivation will be laid for various tool vendors to develop open model description standards while being able to maintain competitive advantage through proprietary algorithms and approaches. These standards will also be compared to the underpinnings of model-driven architecture and the OMG standards of the Meta-Object Facility (MOF), SysML, and QVT.
Cole, Bjorn↗
Model Structural Inference Using Local Dynamic Operators
This paper focuses on the problem of quantifying the effects of model-structure uncertainty in the context of time-evolving dynamical systems. This is motivated by multi-model uncertainty in computer physics simulations: developers often make different modeling choices in numerical approximations and process simplifications, leading to different numerical codes that ostensibly represent the same underlying dynamics. We consider model-structure inference as a two-step methodology: the first step is to perform system identification on numerical codes for which it is possible to observe the full state; the second step is structural uncertainty quantification, in which the goal is to search candidate models "close" to the numerical code surrogates for those that best match a quantity of interest (QOI) from some empirical data sets. Here, we (1) define a discrete, local representation of the structure of a partial differential equation, which we refer to as the "local dynamical operator" (LDO); (2) identify model structure nonintrusively from numerical code output; (3) nonintrusively construct a reduced-order model (ROM) of the numerical model through POD-DEIM-Galerkin projection; (4) perturb the ROM dynamics to approximate the behavior of alternate model structures; and (5) apply Bayesian inference and energy conservation laws to calibrate a LDO to a given QOI. We demonstrate these techniques using the two-dimensional rotating shallow water equations as an example system.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics
To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision making. In principle, data driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for an effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.
Hybrid Modeling↗
Hybrid Approaches to Systems Health Management and Prognostics
To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision making. In principle, data driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for an effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.
Systems Health Management↗
Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics
This is a previously approved and published presentation. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Present achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. In principle, data-driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data-driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.
Prognostics↗
Health Monitoring and Prognostics in Li-ion Batteries
Space applications need to overcome a very critical challenge of predicting remaining useful life of its critical systems/subsystems, with batteries being one of them. Batteries, power electronics conditioning system and motors and one of the most critical systems. Similarly in case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. Two approaches are presented with battery prognostics application. The first approach presentation covers a physics based-modeling approach implemented for battery prognostics. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. A second hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems i.e. batteries is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.
Batteries↗
Health Monitoring and Prognostics in Li-ion Batteries
Space applications need to overcome a very critical challenge of predicting remaining useful life of its critical systems/subsystems, with batteries being one of them. Batteries, power electronics conditioning system and motors and one of the most critical systems. Similarly in case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. Two approaches are presented with battery prognostics application. The first approach presentation covers a physics based-modeling approach implemented for battery prognostics. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. A second hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems i.e. batteries is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.
Battery Prognostics↗
Case studies using GOES infrared data and a planetary boundary layer model to infer regional scale variations in soil moisture
Modeled temperature data from a one-dimensional, time-dependent, initial value, planetary boundary layer model for 16 separate model runs with varying initial values of moisture availability are applied, by the use of a regression equation, to longwave infrared GOES satellite data to infer moisture availability over a regional area in the central U.S. This was done for several days during the summers of 1978 and 1980 where a large gradient in the antecedent precipitation index (API) represented the boundary between a drought area and a region of near normal precipitation. Correlations between satellite derived moisture availability and API were found to exist. Errors from the presence of clouds, water vapor and other spatial inhomogeneities made the use of the measurement for anything except the relative degree of moisture availability dubious.
Rose, F. G.↗
AT2017gfo: Bayesian inference and model selection of multicomponent kilonovae and constraints on the neutron star equation of state
The joint detection of the gravitational wave GW170817, of the short γ-ray burst GRB170817A and of the kilonova AT2017gfo, generated by the the binary neutron star (NS) merger observed on 2017 August 17, is a milestone in multimessenger astronomy and provides new constraints on the NS equation of state. We perform Bayesian inference and model selection on AT2017gfo using semi-analytical, multicomponents models that also account for non-spherical ejecta. Observational data favour anisotropic geometries to spherically symmetric profiles, with a log-Bayes’ factor of ~104, and favour multicomponent models against single-component ones. The best-fitting model is an anisotropic three-component composed of dynamical ejecta plus neutrino and viscous winds. Using the dynamical ejecta parameters inferred from the best-fitting model and numerical–relativity relations connecting the ejecta properties to the binary properties, we constrain the binary mass ratio to q < 1.54 and the reduced tidal parameter to $120\lt \tilde{\Lambda }\lt 1110$. Finally, we combine the predictions from AT2017gfo with those from GW170817, constraining the radius of a NS of 1.4 M ⊙ to 12.2 ± 0.5 km (1σ level). This prediction could be further strengthened by improving kilonova models with numerical-relativity information.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions
Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A model for inferring canopy and underlying soil temperatures from multi-directional measurements
A model is presented of thermal emission from a canopy/soil surface, where the soil and the leaves are at different temperatures, Tg and Tc, respectively. The temperature Tm corresponding to a radiometer reading is given by B sub lambda(Tm) = chi-B sub lambda(Tg) + (1-chi)B sub lambda(Tc), where B sub lambda denotes the Planck blackbody function at wavelength lambda, chi specifies the fraction of the field of view occupied by the soil at a given view direction, and an emissivity of 1.0 is assumed for the plants and the soil. It is observed that at large view zenith angles, only the plants are effectively seen, and therefore Tc can be determined from the observations a large zenith angles, to the extent that such observations are practical. Water stress can produce an increase of chi and thus tends to produce an exaggerated increase in the observed temperature compared to the actual increase in canopy temperature. These effects are analyzed for a simulated soybean canopy.
Otterman, J.↗
The development of a model to infer precipitation from microwave measurements
To permit the inference of precipitation amounts from radiometric measurements, a radiative interaction model was developed. This model uses a simple computational scheme to determine the effects of rain upon brightness temperatures and can be used with a statistical inversion procedure to invert for rain rate. Precipitating cloud models was also developed and used with the microwave model for frequencies of 19.35 and 37 GHz to determine the variability of the microwave-rain rate relationship on a global and seasonal basis.
Fowler, M. G.↗
Atmospheric Energy Deposition Modeling and Inference for Varied Meteoroid Structures
Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.
Deposition↗