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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Seebeck Coefficient Measurement and Its Narrow Band Model Interpretation in FeTe{sub 0.5}Se{sub 0.5} Superconductor

We have measured Seebeck coefficient (S) of FeTe{sub 0.5}Se{sub 0.5} superconducting sample from 10 to 300 K. The variation of Seebeck coefficient with temperature of this system was found to be very anomalous, and the overall experimental observation of the S(T) was studied in the outline of a narrow-band model. In high-temperature region, the Seebeck coefficient is almost independent of temperature. Further, from the study of high-temperature magnitude of S, sample undergoes a change in sign in the Seebeck coefficient, wherein, appearance of a negative peak around 22 K and subsequently, its Seebeck coefficient goes to zero in the superconducting transition temperature regime around 11 to 13 K. It is revealed that the bandwidth and a small asymmetry involved in narrow bands give a realistic explanation to the anomalous temperature dependence of Seebeck coefficient of FeTe{sub 0.5}Se{sub 0.5} system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning aided interpretable model for rupture strength prediction in Fe-based martensitic and austenitic alloys

Abstract The class of 9–12% Cr ferritic-martensitic alloys (FMA) and austenitic stainless steels have received considerable attention due to their numerous applications in high temperature power generation industries. To design high strength steels with prolonged service life requires a thorough understanding of the long-term properties, e.g., creep rupture strength, rupture life, etc., as a function of the chemical composition and processing parameters that govern the microstructural characteristics. In this article, the creep rupture strength of both 9–12% Cr FMA and austenitic stainless steel has been parameterized using curated experimental datasets with a gradient boosting machine. The trained model has been cross validated against unseen test data and achieved high predictive performance in terms of correlation coefficient ( $$R^{2} > 0.98 $$ R 2 > 0.98 for 9–12% Cr FMA and $$R^{2} > 0.95 $$ R 2 > 0.95 for austenitic stainless steel) thus bypassing the need for additional comprehensive tensile test campaigns or physical theoretical calculations. Furthermore, the feature importance has been computed using the Shapley value analysis to understand the complex interplay of different features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Growth model interpretation of planet size distribution

Significance The discovery of numerous exoplanet systems containing diverse populations of planets orbiting very close to their host stars challenges the planet formation theories based on the solar system. Here, we focus on the planets with radii of 2–4 R ⊕ , whose compositions are debated. They are thought to be either gas dwarfs consisting of rocky cores embedded in H 2 -rich gas envelopes or water worlds containing significant amounts of H 2 O-dominated fluid/ice in addition to rock and gas. We argue that these planets are water worlds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges and approaches to interpretive modeling of boundary plasma and neutral transport in a closed, pumped divertor

An experimental discharge from the DIII-D tokamak is modeled using the SOLPS-ITER code suite and compared against measurements in the pumped and relatively closed upper divertor. Uncertainties of boundary plasma simulations are identified by attempting to match code inputs to experimental conditions, including iteratively solving transport coefficients to match upstream experimental profiles using varying quantities of core particle flux, different pumping models, and various assumptions of ion thermal transport. Simulated boundary conditions for particle injection at the core interface are shown to be relevant to the plasma solution at the divertor targets, even if upstream transport is modified so that plasma profiles are comparatively similar, although seperatrix density is not held constant. When upstream plasma profiles are matched to experimental measurements by varying diffusive transport coefficients, using either poloidally symmetric or ballooning structure, the model finds a majority of injected energy being transported radially off the computational domain, in conflict with experimental radiated power measurements and heat flux measurements at the divertor target. Imposing a maximum thermal diffusivity or radially shifting the experimental separatrix location of the fitted profiles to increase power conducted to the targets by increasing the upstream electron temperature does not significantly modify this result. Including a thermalizing plenum volume in the simulation domain is shown to maintain the experimental volumetric pumping rate without knowing the neutral energy distribution incident on the pump duct a priori. By modifying transport parameters to match different assumptions for ion temperature, downstream neutral pressure changes by more than a factor of two, suggesting that attention to ion thermal transport may be a critical parameter for simulations to accurately resolve recycling and neutral transport, particularly in a closed divertor geometry. In addition to quantifying various modeling uncertainties, this work motivates both further experimental study and modeling improvements to improve predictive capabilities.

divertor↗
DOE OSTI2021

CrossCheck: Rapid, Reproducible, and Interpretable Model Evaluation

Evaluation beyond aggregate performance metrics, e.g. F1-score, is crucial to both establish an appropriate level of trust in machine learning models and identify future model improvements. In this paper we demonstrate CrossCheck, an interactive visualization tool for rapid crossmodel comparison and reproducible error analysis. We describe the tool and discuss design and implementation details. We then present three use cases (named entity recognition, reading comprehension, and clickbait detection) that show the benefits of using the tool for model evaluation. CrossCheck allows data scientists to make informed decisions to choose between multiple models, identify when the models are correct and for which examples, investigate whether the models are making the same mistakes as humans, evaluate models’ generalizability and highlight models’ limitations, strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore, CrossCheck is implemented as a Jupyter widget, which allows rapid and convenient integration into data scientists’ model development workflows.

Arendt, Dustin L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of Long-Term Geochemical Change in Bentonite Based on the Interpretative THMC Model of the FEBEX In Situ Test

Since nuclear energy is crucial in the decarbonization of the energy supply, one hurdle to remove is the handling of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). Disposal of HLW in a deep geological repository has long been deemed a viable permanent option. In the design of a deep geological repository, compacted bentonite is the most commonly proposed buffer material. Predicting the long-term chemical evolution in bentonite, which is important for the safety assessment of a repository, has been challenging because of the complex coupled processes. Models for large-scale tests and predictions based on such models have been some of the best practices for such purposes. An 18-year-long in situ test with two dismantling events provided a unique set of chemical data that allowed for studying chemical changes in bentonite. In this paper, we first developed coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) models to interpret the geochemical data collected in the in situ test and then extended the THMC model to 200 years to make long-term prediction of the geochemical evolution of bentonite. The interpretive coupled THMC model shows that the geochemical profiles were strongly affected by THM processes such as evaporation/condensation, porosity change caused by swelling, permeability change, and the shape of concentration profiles for major cations were largely controlled by transport processes, but concentration levels were regulated by chemical reactions, and the profiles of some species such as pH, bicarbonate, and sulfate were dominated by these reactions. The long-term THMC model showed that heating prolongs the time that bentonite becomes fully saturated in the area close to the heater/canister; however, once the bentonite becomes fully saturated, high concentrations of ions in bentonite near the heater, which was observed in the field test, will disappear; illitization continues for 50 years but will not proceed further.

Zheng, Liange↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression to build interpretable surrogate models

Abstract We develop a materials informatics workflow to build an interpretable surrogate model for micromagnetic simulations. Our goal is to predict the energy barrier of a moving isolated skyrmion in rare-earth-free $$\hbox {Mn}_4$$ Mn 4 N. Our approach integrates adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression methods. We discuss an unexplored acquisition function (information condensing active learning) within the adaptive learning loop and compare it with the known standard deviation function for efficient navigation of the search space. Model-agnostic post hoc explanation techniques then uncover trends learned by the trained model, which we then leverage to constrain the expressions used for symbolic regression. Graphical abstract

Biswas, Ankita↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model for Interpreting Discordant SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Test Results

We devised a model to interpret discordant SARS-CoV-2 test results. We estimate that, during March 2020–May 2022, a patient in the United States who received a positive rapid antigen test result followed by a negative nucleic acid test result had only a 15.4% (95% CI 0.6%–56.7%) chance of being infected.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning Physically Interpretable Atmospheric Models From Data With WSINDy

The multiscale and turbulent nature of Earth's atmosphere has historically rendered accurate weather modeling a hard problem. Recently, there has been an explosion of interest surrounding data-driven approaches to weather modeling, which in many cases show improved forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency when compared to traditional methods. However, many of the current data-driven approaches employ highly parameterized neural networks, often resulting in uninterpretable models and limited gains in scientific understanding. In this work, we address the interpretability problem by explicitly discovering partial differential equations governing atmospheric phenomena, identifying symbolic mathematical models with direct physical interpretations. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, in particular, the weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (WSINDy) algorithm can learn effective atmospheric models from both simulated and assimilated data. Our approach adapts the standard WSINDy algorithm to work with high-dimensional fluid data of arbitrary spatial dimension.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerated Materials Design for Molten Salt Technologies Using Innovative High-Throughput Methods

The focus of the project is on building an innovative accelerated materials design platform for molten salt technologies using novel high-throughput methods coupled to data analytics. The main objectives is to predict a FeCrMnNi alloy compositional space with better corrosion resistance than stainless steel 316 and identify new molten salt corrosion mechanisms. The project demonstrates the feasibility to use high-throughput methods coupled to data analytics to accelerate alloy design for extreme environments applications. Using a trained and tested machine learning (ML) model, 2000 FeCrMnNi alloy corrosion rate in molten chloride salts were predicted and a compositional field with corrosion rate lower than 316 stainless steel was identified. The ML model interpretability unveiled multiple features of importance in the model prediction. Some features were expected to be of relative significance, such as work function, surface energy and alloy electronegativity, and the ML model interpretability analysis confirmed those. On the other hand, the most important feature is the diffusion coefficient of Ni in the bulk alloy which indicates that a surface diffusion mechanism plays an important role in the overall corrosion mechanism in molten salts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpretive MHD modeling of dispersive shell pellet injection for rapid shutdown in tokamaks

Dispersive shell pellet (DSP) injection is modeled with the extended-MHD code NIMROD for interpretive insight into the results of recent DIII-D DSP experiments and to explore the dynamics of an inside-out thermal quench for disruption mitigation in tokamaks. Simulations of the pre-thermal quench (TQ) phase indicate that the upper bound for the quantity of ablated carbon shell material that will not perturb the flux surfaces is in the ballpark of, but somewhat below the experimental quantity. Even below this quantity, sufficient electrons are added to the plasma by the shell material to produce significant dilution cooling before the TQ is triggered. Simulations carried through the end of the TQ have very large amplitude MHD fluctuations (δB/B>10 -2 ) at the time of the plasma current spike associated with current profile redistribution. Finally, after the plasma current spike, which is of comparable amplitude to that measured in DIII-D experiments, none of the runaway electron test-particles whose orbits are tracked throughout the simulation remain confined.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗