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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

FVCOM-plume – A Three-dimensional Lagrangian Outfall Plume Dilution and Transport Model for Dynamic Tidal Environments: Model Development

Although numerous steady-state effluent plume dilution models are in use, their application in tidal environments remains a challenge. Three-dimensional dynamic circulation models are also inadequate, often due to the lack of required resolution and simplifying assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we present FVCOM-plume—an outfall plume dilution and transport model that operates within the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) framework. It provides simultaneous inclusion of near-field dilution and far-field plume transport processes. The near-field is based on UM3 model using Lagrangian Control Volume approach to compute buoyant plume trajectory and dilution from multiport diffusers. The far-field uses neutrally buoyant particles with point masses and the random walk method to solve unsteady advection-diffusion processes. A density kernel approach is used to compute concentrations at point locations and analyze far-field plume characteristics. The results demonstrate the ability of FVCOM-plume to simultaneously capture near-field and far-field effluent plume dynamics in tidal environments.

Plume Dilution Models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software is developed to simulate performance and performance degradation of Li-ion batteries consisting of layered and olivine cathodes with graphite anode when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown at the anode, cathode dissolution and its synergistic effect on SEI formation at the anode. The model is validated by simulating commercial cylindrical cell performance. A global model is developed to simulate performance across all chemistries, along with individual chemistry models using global model parameters as initial values. There is good agreement between these models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed which fits data well and provides more clarity on differences in cathode dissolution exchange current density. Again, good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. The lessons learned from the physics-based model is used to develop a top down statistics-based model using current, voltage and anode volumetric change per mole lithium intercalated, along with their interactions as degradation predictors. This model predicts out of sample degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycle with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from physics-based computationally intensive algorithms.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model (CASWR Model)

This document describes the implementation of a solid waste form release model in GoldSim for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) Update. This Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release model (CASWR model) was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for Hanford’s Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites using single realizations of release model coefficients. Five generalized waste form types are used for the conceptual model of waste release: surplus reactor block, cement, soil-debris, grouted residual waste, and ancillary equipment. The surplus reactor block waste form consists of radionuclide leaching from surplus production graphite reactor core blocks via unspecified processes (White et al., 1984 as cited in PNNL-15965). The cement waste form represents solidified wastes whose permeability is much lower than that of the surrounding soil. The soil-debris waste form type is defined as unconsolidated waste mixed with soil material. Tanks and canyon complexes comprise the grouted residual waste form such that their solid waste will be grouted and capped with a surface barrier at the completion of their cleanup. Finally, the ancillary equipment waste form constitutes contaminant releases from ancillary and auxiliary waste form residues associated with tank farms at closure. Individual sub-models are implemented to numerically represent a respective waste form within the CASWR Model: Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model, Cement Sub-model, SoilDebris Sub-model, Grouted Residual Waste Sub-model, and Ancillary Equipment Submodel. Advection is assumed to be the primary transport process governing the release of radionuclides in the Ancillary Equipment and Soil-Debris Sub-models. Diffusion is assumed to be the primary release process in the Grouted Residual Waste and Cement Sub-models. An unspecified zero-order release process is considered in the Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model due to the lack of information regarding actual processes involved in irradiated graphite leaching. The Surplus Reactor Block, Cement, and SoilDebris Sub-models were compared against analytical solutions (PNNL-11800, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site). The agreement between results of these analytical solutions and the corresponding waste form models verified their correct implementation in GoldSim. A 1-D modeling abstraction approach for the Grouted Residual Waste and Ancillary Equipment Sub-models was adopted from existing Performance Assessment (PA) models. Despite the simplifications made in these sub-models, they were found to be appropriate representations of the waste forms, similar to what was used in the Waste Management Area C PA model (RPP-ENV-58782, Performance Assessment of Waste Management Area C, Hanford Site, Washington, Rev. 0). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential parameters in each waste form sub-model. Suggestions for considering pH-dependent and redox-dependent release mechanisms are formulated through the development of a conditional constant approach in GoldSim.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Spatial Resolution in a High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Model: An ERCOT Case Study

Capacity expansion models are important tools in examining the evolution of the electric power sector. Embedded in these tools are many modeling choices with consequential impacts on computational burden and associated analysis. In this study, we adjust the spatial resolution of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to understand the implications of higher-fidelity modeling on energy system projections and model solve times. The native ReEDS regions capture the contiguous United States in 134 balancing areas whereas the regions in the higher-resolution version are defined by over 3,000 U.S. counties. Using both resolutions, we conduct a case study of the Texas Interconnection (The Electric Reliability Council of Texas [ERCOT]) to explore differences in model projections and to inform appropriate applications of high spatial resolution in a large-scale, applied capacity expansion model.

county↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying model structural error: Efficient Bayesian calibration of a regional groundwater flow model using surrogates and a data-driven error model

Groundwater model structural error is ubiquitous, due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of real aquifer systems. During model calibration, the basic hydrogeological parameters may be adjusted to compensate for structural error. This may result in biased predictions when such calibrated models are used to forecast aquifer responses to new forcing. Here, we investigate the impact of model structural error on calibration and prediction of a real-world groundwater flow model, using a Bayesian method with a data-driven error model to explicitly account for model structural error. The error-explicit Bayesian method jointly infers model parameters and structural error and thereby reduces parameter compensation. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models (based on machine learning techniques) as a substitute for the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate that with explicit treatment of model structural error, the Bayesian method yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived using classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. We also found that the error-explicit Bayesian method gives signficantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals. Finally, through variance decomposition, we provide a comprehensive assessment of prediction uncertainty contributed from parameter, model structure, and measurement uncertainty. The results suggest that the error-explicit Bayesian approach provides a solution to real-world modeling applications for which data support the presence of model structural error, yet model deficiency cannot be specifically identified or corrected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developing a Reduced 240-Bus WECC Dynamic Model for Frequency Response Study of High Renewable Integration

The ongoing changes in the generation resource mix, driven by the rapid adoption of inverter-based resources (IBR) as well as the early retirement of synchronous generators, are bringing new challenges to the planning and operation of bulk electric power systems. Consequently, there is an increasing need to understand, design, and quantify the reliability service provision from IBRs by performing integrated scheduling and dynamic simulations. However, test systems that have consistent scheduling and dynamic models rarely exist largely because of the decoupled nature of the two simulations on a synchronous generator-dominated system. This paper develops the dynamic model of a reduced Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. In conjunction with the existing scheduling model, it is suitable for integrating scheduling and dynamic simulations. The reduced 240-bus WECC model reflects the generation resource mix of the Western Interconnection as of 2018. Moreover, the developed dynamic model is validated against field frequency events measured by FNET/GridEye and preserves the dominant inter-area oscillation mode in WECC.

dynamic simulation↗
DOE OSTI2017

Model Order Reduction Algorithm for Estimating the Absorption Spectrum

The ab initio description of the spectral interior of the absorption spectrum poses both a theoretical and computational challenge for modern electronic structure theory. Due to the often spectrally dense character of this domain in the quantum propagator’s eigenspectrum for medium-to-large sized systems, traditional approaches based on the partial diagonalization of the propagator often encounter oscillatory and stagnating convergence. Electronic structure methods which solve the molecular response problem through the solution of spectrally shifted linear systems, such as the complex polarization propagator, offer an alternative approach which is agnostic to the underlying spectral density or domain location. This generality comes at a seemingly high computational cost associated with solving a large linear system for each spectral shift in some discretization of the spectral domain of interest. In this work, we present a novel, adaptive solution to this high computational overhead based on model order reduction techniques via interpolation. Model order reduction reduces the computational complexity of mathematical models and is ubiquitous in the simulation of dynamical systems and control theory. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in the ab initio prediction of X-ray absorption spectra is demonstrated using a test set of challenging water clusters which are spectrally dense in the neighborhood of the oxygen K-edge. On the basis of a single, user defined tolerance we automatically determine the order of the reduced models and approximate the absorption spectrum up to the given tolerance. We also illustrate that, for the systems studied, the automatically determined model order increases logarithmically with the problem dimension, compared to a linear increase of the number of eigenvalues within the energy window. Furthermore, we observed that the computational cost of the proposed algorithm only scales quadratically with respect to the problem dimension.

IDREAM, K-Edge, theoretical, computational, electr↗
DOE OSTI2018

U.S. energy sector impacts of technology innovation, fuel price, and electric sector CO2 policy: Results from the EMF 32 model intercomparison study

We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energy-economic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices but fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO2 emissions compared to the CO2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Effects of Artificial Drainage on Agriculture-dominated Watersheds using a Fully Distributed Integrated Hydrology Model: Datasets, scripts, model files

This model-data archive supports the research paper that demonstrates the integration of agricultural drainage features—specifically, narrow engineered ditches and tile drains—into a fully distributed, basin-scale integrated surface-subsurface hydrology model (ISSHM), Amanzi-ATS. The model employs innovative computational meshes aligned with agricultural ditches and incorporates the physically based Hooghoudt's drainage equation to simulate tile drainage, offering a novel strategy that enhances the accuracy of hydrological simulations.The archived dataset includes input parameters, model configurations, and select simulation outputs for the Amanzi-ATS model that successfully captured the streamflow patterns in the Portage River Watershed as validated by USGS gauge readings. Jupyter notebook for the preparation of model inputs and post-processing of outputs are also included. The model's predictive performance achieved a normalized Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.81, surpassing SWAT without the necessity for site-specific calibration.The Amanzi-ATS model presented in this modeL-data archive allows for numerical experiments to explore the shifts in the flow structure under different drainage scenarios. As a tool for advancing the understanding of distributed hydrological responses and nutrient cycling, this archived model provides valuable insights for researchers, modelers, and decision-makers involved in watershed management and environmental modeling.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include CSV and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model, open-source integrated hydrology, and transport model, are in XML format and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reference Cell Performance and Modeling on a One-Axis Tracking Surface: Preprint

Performance of five silicon-based reference cells is examined on a single-axis tracking surface. The reference cells' output are modeled using one-minute sampled spectral irradiance and reference cell temperature measurements. The model also incorporates spectral responsivity data for the reference cell. The transmission of light through the glazing multiplies the sum over all appropriate wavelengths of temperature adjusted reference cell responsivity times the measured spectral irradiance. Modeled reference cell output is compared with measured reference cell output under clear sky and totally cloudy sky conditions. For each reference cell the ratio of modeled to measured output varies by less than 2% over the year.

modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Fidelity of Computational Models for the Flow of Milled Loblolly Pine: A Benchmark Study on Continuum-Mechanics Models and Discrete-Particle Models

The upstream of bioenergy industry has suffered from unreliable operations of granular biomass feedstocks in handling equipment. Computational modeling, including continuum-mechanics models and discrete-particle models, offers insightful understandings and predictive capabilities on the flow of milled biomass and can assist equipment design and optimization. This paper presents a benchmark study on the fidelity of the continuum and discrete modeling approaches for predicting granular biomass flow. We first introduce the constitutive law of the continuum-mechanics model and the contact law of the coarse-grained discrete-particle model, with model parameters calibrated against laboratory characterization tests of the milled loblolly pine. Three classical granular material flow systems (i.e., a lab-scale rotating drum, a pilot-scale hopper, and a full-scale inclined plane) are then simulated using the two models with the same initial and boundary conditions as the physical experiments. The close agreement of the numerical predictions with the experimental measurements on the hopper mass flow rate, the hopper critical outlet width, the material stopping thickness on the inclined plane, and the dynamic angle of repose, clearly indicates that the two methods can capture the critical flow behavior of granular biomass. The qualitative comparison shows that the continuum-mechanics model outperforms in parameterization of materials and wall friction, and large-scale systems, while the discrete-particle model is more preferred for discontinuous flow systems at smaller scales. Industry stakeholders can use these findings as guidance for choosing appropriate numerical tools to model biomass material flow in part of the optimization of material handling equipment in biorefineries.

Jin, Wencheng↗