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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Monte Carlo analysis of the Titan III/Transfer Orbit Stage guidance system for the Mars Observer mission

An important part of space launch vehicle mission planning for a planetary mission is the integrated analysis of guidance and performance dispersions for both booster and upper stage vehicles. For the Mars Observer mission, an integrated trajectory analysis was used to maximize the scientific payload and to minimize injection errors by optimizing the energy management of both vehicles. This was accomplished by designing the Titan III booster vehicle to inject into a hyperbolic departure plane, and the Transfer Orbit Stage (TOS) to correct any booster dispersions. An integrated Monte Carlo analysis of the performance and guidance dispersions of both vehicles provided sensitivities, an evaluation of their guidance schemes and an injection error covariance matrix. The polynomial guidance schemes used for the Titan III variable flight azimuth computations and the TOS solid rocket motor ignition time and burn direction derivations accounted for a wide variation of launch times, performance dispersions, and target conditions. The Mars Observer spacecraft was launched on 25 September 1992 on the Titan III/TOS vehicle. The post flight analysis indicated that a near perfect park orbit injection was achieved, followed by a trans-Mars injection with less than 2sigma errors.

Bell, Stephen C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monte-Carlo Analysis of Minimal Thermocouple Depths using Icarus

Icarus is a three-dimensional, unstructured, finite-volume material response solver developed at NASA Ames Research Center \cite{Schulz_2017} and has been verified against other NASA material response tools like FIAT, which have a long history of successfully designing thermal protection system (TPS). Icarus solves a set of conservation equations for mass and energy and uses Darcy’s Law in place of momentum conservation. An ecosystem of material response tools has been built around a general-purposed Icarus library that in addition to the typical material response analysis also supports TPS sizing (1-D and multi-dimensional), uncertainty quantification, and has been successfully integrated into a multi-physics architecture built around US3D \cite{Schroeder_2021}. In this paper, a brief overview of Icarus and its capabilities will be presented using an illustrative Monte Carlo analysis of the one-dimensional, in-depth material response of a representative Dragonfly trajectory.

Material Response↗
NASA NTRS1992

A Monte Carlo analysis of the liquid xenon TPC as gamma ray telescope

Extensive Monte Carlo modeling of a coded aperture x ray telescope based on a high resolution liquid xenon TPC has been performed. Results on efficiency, background reduction capability and source flux sensitivity are presented. We discuss in particular the development of a reconstruction algorithm for events with multiple interaction points. From the energy and spatial information, the kinematics of Compton scattering is used to identify and reduce background events, as well as to improve the detector response in the few MeV region. Assuming a spatial resolution of 1 mm RMS and an energy resolution of 4.5 percent FWHM at 1 MeV, the algorithm is capable of reducing by an order of magnitude the background rate expected at balloon altitude, thus significantly improving the telescope sensitivity.

Aprile, E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Monte Carlo analysis of inaccuracies in estimated aircraft parameters caused by unmodeled flight instrumentation errors

An output error estimation algorithm was used to evaluate the effects of both static and dynamic instrumentation errors on the estimation of aircraft stability and control parameters. A Monte Carlo error analysis, using simulated cruise flight data, was performed for a high-performance military aircraft, a large commercial transport, and a small general aviation aircraft. The results indicate that unmodeled instrumentation errors can cause inaccuracies in the estimated parameters which are comparable to their nominal values. However, the corresponding perturbations to the estimated output response trajectories and characteristics equation pole locations appear to be relatively small. Control input errors and dynamic lags were found to be in the most significant of the error sources evaluated.

Hodge, W. F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Monte Carlo analysis of dissociation and recombination behind strong shock waves in nitrogen

Computations are presented for the relaxation zone behind strong, 1D shock waves in nitrogen. The analysis is performed with the direct simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC). The DSMC code is vectorized for efficient use on a supercomputer. The code simulates translational, rotational and vibrational energy exchange and dissociative and recombinative chemical reactions. A model is proposed for the treatment of three body-recombination collisions in the DSMC technique which usually simulates binary collision events. The model improves previous models because it can be employed with a large range of chemical-rate data, does not introduce into the flow field troublesome pairs of atoms which may recombine upon further collision (pseudoparticles) and is compatible with the vectorized code. The computational results are compared with existing experimental data. It is shown that the derivation of chemical-rate coefficients must account for the degree of vibrational nonequilibrium in the flow. A nonequilibrium-chemistry model is employed together with equilibrium-rate data to compute the flow in several different nitrogen shock waves.

Boyd, I. D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A Monte Carlo analysis of the Viking lander dynamics at touchdown

The performance of the Viking lander has been evaluated by using a Monte Carlo simulation, and all results are presented in statistical form. The primary objectives of this analysis were as follows: (1) to determine the three sigma design values of maximum rigid body accelerations and the minimum clearance of the lander body during landing; (2) to determine the probability of an unstable landing; and (3) to determine the probability of the lander body striking a rock. Two configurations were analyzed with the only difference being in the ability of the primary landing gear struts to carry tension loads.

Muraca, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Monte Carlo analysis of lobular gas-surface scattering in tubes applied to thermal transpiration

A model of rarefied gas flow in tubes was developed which combines a lobular distribution with diffuse reflection at the wall. The model with Monte Carlo techniques was used to explain previously observed deviations in the free molecular thermal transpiration ratio which suggest molecules can have a greater tube transmission probability in a hot-to-cold direction than in a cold-to-hot direction. The model yields correct magnitudes of transmission probability ratios for helium in Pyrex tubing (1.09 to 1.14), and some effects of wall-temperature distribution, tube surface roughness, tube dimensions, gas temperature, and gas molecular mass.

Smith, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Monte Carlo Analysis of the Commissioning Phase Maneuvers of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will perform soil moisture content and freeze/thaw state observations from a low-Earth orbit. The observatory is scheduled to launch in October 2014 and will perform observations from a near-polar, frozen, and sun-synchronous Science Orbit for a 3-year data collection mission. At launch, the observatory is delivered to an Injection Orbit that is biased below the Science Orbit; the spacecraft will maneuver to the Science Orbit during the mission Commissioning Phase. The delta V needed to maneuver from the Injection Orbit to the Science Orbit is computed statistically via a Monte Carlo simulation; the 99th percentile delta V (delta V99) is carried as a line item in the mission delta V budget. This paper details the simulation and analysis performed to compute this figure and the delta V99 computed per current mission parameters.

Monte Carlo simulations↗
NASA NTRS1978

Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. I - Development of a concise stratospheric model. II - Monte Carlo analysis of imprecisions due to reaction rates

The paper discusses the development of a concise stratospheric model which uses iteration to obtain coupling between interacting species. The one-dimensional, steady-state, diurnally-averaged model generates diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks for species odd oxygen, H2O, H2, CO, N2O, odd nitrogen, CH4, CH3Cl, CCl4, CF2Cl2, CFCl3, and odd chlorine. The model evaluates steady-state perturbations caused by injections of chlorine and NO(x) and may be used to predict ozone depletion. The model is used in a Monte Carlo study of the propagation of reaction-rate imprecisions by calculating an ozone perturbation caused by the addition of chlorine. Since the model is sensitive to only 10 of the more than 50 reaction rates considered, only about 1000 Monte Carlo cases are required to span the space of possible results.

Rundel, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Monte Carlo Analysis of Pion Contribution to Absorbed Dose from Galactic Cosmic Rays

Accurate knowledge of the physics of interaction, particle production and transport is necessary to estimate the radiation damage to equipment used on spacecraft and the biological effects of space radiation. For long duration astronaut missions, both on the International Space Station and the planned manned missions to Moon and Mars, the shielding strategy must include a comprehensive knowledge of the secondary radiation environment. The distribution of absorbed dose and dose equivalent is a function of the type, energy and population of these secondary products. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) comprised of protons and heavier nuclei have energies from a few MeV per nucleon to the ZeV region, with the spectra reaching flux maxima in the hundreds of MeV range. Therefore, the MeV - GeV region is most important for space radiation. Coincidentally, the pion production energy threshold is about 280 MeV. The question naturally arises as to how important these particles are with respect to space radiation problems. The space radiation transport code, HZETRN (High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport), currently used by NASA, performs neutron, proton and heavy ion transport explicitly, but it does not take into account the production and transport of mesons, photons and leptons. In this paper, we present results from the Monte Carlo code MCNPX (Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended), showing the effect of leptons and mesons when they are produced and transported in a GCR environment.

Aghara, S.K.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Monte-Carlo analysis of rarefied-gas diffusion including variance reduction using the theory of Markov random walks

Molecular diffusion through a rarefied gas is analyzed by using the theory of Markov random walks. The Markov walk is simulated on the computer by using random numbers to find the new states from the appropriate transition probabilities. As the sample molecule during its random walk passes a scoring position, which is a location at which the macroscopic diffusing flow variables such as molecular flux and molecular density are desired, an appropriate payoff is scored. The payoff is a function of the sample molecule velocity. For example, in obtaining the molecular flux across a scoring position, the random walk payoff is the net number of times the scoring position has been crossed in the positive direction. Similarly, when the molecular density is required, the payoff is the sum of the inverse velocity of the sample molecule passing the scoring position. The macroscopic diffusing flow variables are then found from the expected payoff of the random walks.

Perlmutter, M.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 1: Development of a concise stratospheric model

A concise model has been developed to analyze uncertainties in stratospheric perturbations, yet uses a minimum of computer time and is complete enough to represent the results of more complex models. The steady state model applies iteration to achieve coupling between interacting species. The species are determined from diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks. Diurnal effects due to chlorine nitrate formation are accounted for by analytic approximation. The model has been used to evaluate steady state perturbations due to injections of chlorine and NO(X).

Rundel, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Monte Carlo Analysis of Airport Throughput and Traffic Delays Using Self Separation Procedures

This paper presents the results of three simulation studies of throughput and delay times of arrival and departure operations performed at non-towered, non-radar airports using self-separation procedures. The studies were conducted as part of the validation process of the Small Aircraft Transportation Systems Higher Volume Operations (SATS HVO) concept and include an analysis of the predicted airport capacity using with different traffic conditions and system constraints under increasing levels of demand. Results show that SATS HVO procedures can dramatically increase capacity at non-towered, non-radar airports and that the concept offers the potential for increasing capacity of the overall air transportation system.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Monte Carlo Dispersion Analysis of the X-33 Simulation Software

A Monte Carlo dispersion analysis has been completed on the X-33 software simulation. The simulation is based on a preliminary version of the software and is primarily used in an effort to define and refine how a Monte Carlo dispersion analysis would have been done on the final flight-ready version of the software. This report gives an overview of the processes used in the implementation of the dispersions and describes the methods used to accomplish the Monte Carlo analysis. Selected results from 1000 Monte Carlo runs are presented with suggestions for improvements in future work.

Williams, Peggy S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗