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Results for “Monte Carlo Techniques”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Application of Monte Carlo techniques to transient thermal modeling of cavity radiometers having diffuse-specular surfaces

A viable alternative to the net exchange method of radiative analysis which is equally applicable to diffuse and diffuse-specular enclosures is presented. It is particularly more advantageous to use than the net exchange method in the case of a transient thermal analysis involving conduction and storage of energy as well as radiative exchange. A new quantity, called the distribution factor is defined which replaces the angle factor and the configuration factor. Once obtained, the array of distribution factors for an ensemble of surface elements which define an enclosure permits the instantaneous net radiative heat fluxes to all of the surfaces to be computed directly in terms of the known surface temperatures at that instant. The formulation of the thermal model is described, as is the determination of distribution factors by application of a Monte Carlo analysis. The results show that when fewer than 10,000 packets are emitted, an unsatisfactory approximation for the distribution factors is obtained, but that 10,000 packets is sufficient.

Mahan, J. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Sample/Jitter Monte Carlo Technique for Main Parachute Loads Predictions

Models for Orion parachute performance are based on reconstructions of the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) drop test campaign and were documented in the CPAS “Model Memo.” Experience with similar Commercial Crew Program (CCP) parachute systems resulted in some updates to the Orion models in preparation for Artemis missions. The reefing cutter dispersion model for the drogues and mains had been overly-conservative by producing wide timing differences within clusters. A higher-fidelity timing model was generated by separating out in-lot variation and temperature effects. The main parachute inflation model had accounted for some correlations between parameters using complicated 2-D geometric bounding, but the results tended to exaggerate individual peak loads from fast (leading) inflations and under-emphasize actual lagging experience. Several flight tests were reconstructed again with an emphasis on matching peak load magnitudes using a search algorithm. A simpler method for generating inflation parameters uses the 3-D correlated reconstructed “samples” with some random “jitter” applied. Dispersed Monte Carlo inputs are then checked against flight test data to evaluate whether they represent reality.

parachutes↗
NASA NTRS1971

Application of Monte Carlo techniques to optimization of high-energy beam transport in a stochastic environment

An algorithm employing a modified sequential random perturbation, or creeping random search, was applied to the problem of optimizing the parameters of a high-energy beam transport system. The stochastic solution of the mathematical model for first-order magnetic-field expansion allows the inclusion of state-variable constraints, and the inclusion of parameter constraints allowed by the method of algorithm application eliminates the possibility of infeasible solutions. The mathematical model and the algorithm were programmed for a real-time simulation facility; thus, two important features are provided to the beam designer: (1) a strong degree of man-machine communication (even to the extent of bypassing the algorithm and applying analog-matching techniques), and (2) extensive graphics for displaying information concerning both algorithm operation and transport-system behavior. Chromatic aberration was also included in the mathematical model and in the optimization process. Results presented show this method as yielding better solutions (in terms of resolutions) to the particular problem than those of a standard analog program as well as demonstrating flexibility, in terms of elements, constraints, and chromatic aberration, allowed by user interaction with both the algorithm and the stochastic model. Example of slit usage and a limited comparison of predicted results and actual results obtained with a 600 MeV cyclotron are given.

Parrish, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗
NASA NTRS1974

A study of two statistical methods as applied to shuttle solid rocket booster expenditures

The state probability technique and the Monte Carlo technique are applied to finding shuttle solid rocket booster expenditure statistics. For a given attrition rate per launch, the probable number of boosters needed for a given mission of 440 launches is calculated. Several cases are considered, including the elimination of the booster after a maximum of 20 consecutive launches. Also considered is the case where the booster is composed of replaceable components with independent attrition rates. A simple cost analysis is carried out to indicate the number of boosters to build initially, depending on booster costs. Two statistical methods were applied in the analysis: (1) state probability method which consists of defining an appropriate state space for the outcome of the random trials, and (2) model simulation method or the Monte Carlo technique. It was found that the model simulation method was easier to formulate while the state probability method required less computing time and was more accurate.

Perlmutter, M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A Monte Carlo simulation technique for low-altitude, wind-shear turbulence

A case is made for including anisotropy in a Monte Carlo flight simulation scheme of low-altitude wind-shear turbulence by means of power spectral density. This study attempts to eliminate all flight simulation-induced deficiencies in the basic turbulence model. A full-scale low-altitude wind-shear turbulence simulation scheme is proposed with particular emphasis on low cost and practicality for near-ground flight. The power spectral density statistic is used to highlight the need for realistic estimates of energy transfer associated with low-altitude wind-shear turbulence. The simulation of a particular anisotropic turbulence model is shown to be a relatively simple extension from that of traditional isotropic (Dryden) turbulence.

Bowles, Roland L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods

This article reviews the application of some advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations, which can be biassed in some sense, for instance, by using the discretization of an associated probability law. The MLMC approach works with a hierarchy of biassed approximations, which become progressively more accurate and more expensive. Additionally, using a telescoping representation of the most accurate approximation, the method is able to reduce the computational cost for a given level of error versus i.i.d. sampling from this latter approximation. All of these ideas originated for cases where exact sampling from couples in the hierarchy is possible. This article considers the case where such exact sampling is not currently possible. We consider some Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, which have been introduced in the literature, and we describe different strategies that facilitate the application of MLMC within these methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

CASM Monte Carlo: Calculations of the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of complex multicomponent crystals

Monte Carlo techniques play a central role in statistical mechanics approaches that connect macroscopic thermodynamic and kinetic properties to the electronic structure of a material. This paper describes the implementation of Monte Carlo techniques for the study of multicomponent crystalline materials within the Clusters Approach to Statistical Mechanics (CASM) software suite, and demonstrates their use in model systems to calculate free energies and kinetic coefficients, study phase transitions, and construct phase diagrams from first principles. Many crystal structures are complex, with multiple sublattices occupied by differing sets of chemical species, along with the presence of vacancies or interstitial species. This imposes constraints on concentration variables, the form of thermodynamic potentials, and the values of kinetic transport coefficients. The framework used by CASM to formulate thermodynamic potentials and kinetic transport coefficients accounting for arbitrarily complex crystal structures is presented and demonstrated with examples of increasing complexity. Additionally, an overview of the capabilities of the CASM software specific to Monte Carlo methods is given, and a new CASM software package is introduced, casm-flow, which helps automate the setup, submission, management, and analysis of Monte Carlo simulations.

Cluster expansion↗
NASA NTRS2007

Method and program product for determining a radiance field in an optical environment

A hybrid method is presented by which Monte Carlo techniques are combined with iterative relaxation techniques to solve the Radiative Transfer Equation in arbitrary one-, two- or three-dimensional optical environments. The optical environments are first divided into contiguous regions, or elements, with Monte Carlo techniques then being employed to determine the optical response function of each type of element. The elements are combined, and the iterative relaxation techniques are used to determine simultaneously the radiance field on the boundary and throughout the interior of the modeled environment. This hybrid model is capable of providing estimates of the under-water light field needed to expedite inspection of ship hulls and port facilities. It is also capable of providing estimates of the subaerial light field for structured, absorbing or non-absorbing environments such as shadows of mountain ranges within and without absorption spectral bands such as water vapor or CO.sub.2 bands.

Reinersman, Phillip N.↗