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NASA NTRS1994

The chemical and radiative effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption

To clarify the mechanisms leading to effects on stratospheric ozone, time-dependent stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment II (SAGE II) and cryogenic limb array elaton spectrometer (CLAES) aerosol optical extinction data and SAGE II surface area density are used as parameters in a two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged chemical radiative transport model. The model was integrated with time from before the eruption through December 1993. The modeled impact on global ozone results from increased rates of heterogeneous reactions on sulfate aerosols and from the increased radiative heating and scattering caused by these aerosols. When the aerosol heating is allowed to modify the temperature distribution, the maximum change calculated in equatorial column ozone is -1.6%. The calculated equatorial temperature change and peak local ozone change in October 1991 are +6K and -4%, respectively. When aerosol heating perturbs the circulation in the model, the maximum change in equatorial column ozone is -6%. Increased heterogeneous processing on sulfate aerosols is calculated to have changed equatorial column ozone in late 1991 by -1.5%. Global column ozone in the model in 1992 and 1993 changed by -2.8% and -2.4%, respectively. The relationship of ozone-controlling processes in the lower stratosphere is altered as well; HO(x) becomes the most important catalytic cycle, followed by ClO(x) and NO(x). This is driven by significant changes in trace gas concentrations. In October 1991, lower stratospheric, equatorial NO(x) decreased by 40%, ClO(x) increased by 60%, and HO(x) increased by 25%. When the effect of heterogeneous chemical processing on sulfate aerosols is combined with aerosol heating, modifying either circulation or temperature, dramatically different ozone fingerprints with time and latitude are predicted. Model-derived changes in the equatorial region in column ozone best represented the observed data when perturbed circulation was combined with heterogeneous chemical effects. However, at high latitudes, the increased ozone production from the strengthening of the mean circulation tends to cancel the heterogeneous reduction of ozone. This is not in good agreement with observed data, especially in 1992 and 1993. When the circulation is held fixed and the temperature allowed to change, and heterogeneous chemical effects are included, the equatorial ozone decrease predicted was too small for 1991. However, the mid- to high-latitude decrease in 1992 and 1993 is in better agreement with observed data.

Kinneson, Douglas E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption

The 1991 eruption of Pinatubo produced about 5 cubic kilometers of dacitic magma and may be the second largest volcanic eruption of the century. Eruption columns reached 40 kilometers in altitude and emplaced a giant umbrella cloud in the middle to lower stratosphere that injected about 17 megatons of SO2, slightly more than twice the largest yielded by the 1982 eruption of El Chichon, Mexico. The SO2 formed sulfate aerosols that produced the largest perturbation to the stratospheric aerosol layer since the eruption of Krakatau in 1883. The aerosol cloud spread rapidly around the Earth in about 3 weeks and attained global coverage by about 1 year after the eruption. Peak local midvisible optical depths of up to 0.4 were measured in late 1992, and globally averaged values were about 0.1 to 0.15 for 2 years. The large aerosol cloud caused dramatic decreases in the amount of net radiation reaching the Earth's surface, producing a climate forcing that was two times stronger than the aerosols of El Chichon. Effects on climate were an observed surface cooling in the northern hemisphere of up to 0.5 to 0.6 C, equivalent to a hemispheric-wide reduction in net radiation of 4 watts per square meter and a cooling of perhaps as large as -0.4 C over large parts of the earth in 1992-93. Climate models seem to have predicted the cooling with a reasonable degree of accuracy. The Pinatubo climate forcing was stronger than the opposite warming of either the El Nino event or anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the period 1991-93. As a result of the presence of the aerosol particles, midlatitude ozone concentrations reached their lowest levels on record during 1992-93, the southern hemisphere 'ozone hole' increased in 1992 to an unprecedented size and ozone depletion rates were observed to be faster than ever before recorded. The atmospheric impact of the Pinatubo eruption has been profound, and it has sparked a lively interest in the role that volcanic aerosols play in climate change. This event has shown that a powerful eruption providing a 15 to 20 megaton release of SO2 into the stratosphere can produce sufficient aerosols to offset the present global warming trends and severely impact the ozone budget.

Self, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Response of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo

Observations have shown that the global mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased in both hemispheres in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating an enhanced heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response was largely asymmetrical with respect to the equator, with a decrease in the northern hemisphere and little change in the southern hemisphere. Simulations including enhanced heterogeneous chemistry due to the presence of the volcanic aerosol reproduce a decrease of ozone in the northern hemisphere, but also produce a comparable ozone decrease in the southern hemisphere, contrary to observations. Our simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and the extratropical downwelling. The enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, increased the ozone in the southern hemisphere and counteracted the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic aerosol.

Aquila. Valentina↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Response of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo at Southern and Northern Midlatitudes

Observations have shown that the mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased at both southern and northern midlatitudes in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating that the volcanic aerosol had enhanced nitrogen dioxide depletion via heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response showed a northern midlatitude decrease and a small southern midlatitude increase. Previous simulations that included an enhancement of heterogeneous chemistry by the volcanic aerosol but no other effect of this aerosol produce ozone decreases in both hemispheres, contrary to observations. The authors simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and Southern Hemisphere extratropical downwelling. This enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer Dobson circulation, increased Southern Hemisphere ozone via advection, counteracting the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol.

Aquila, Valentina↗
NASA NTRS2021

Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System

A contemporary seasonal forecasting system is used to study the impacts of a volcanic sulfate injection into the stratosphere on the seasonal forecasts for surface temperatures, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and precipitation. The focus is a case study of the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines and the period from July 1991 to February 1992. Version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system is used in this study. GEOS-S2S includes the GOddard Chemistry, Aerosols, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module, which allows to prognostically simulate aerosol distributions. GOCART is coupled to the radiation and cloud modules to include the impact of the eruption on forecasted radiation and precipitation. The coupled GEOS-S2S system was initialized in May 1991 with fields based on observations to produce ten-member 9-month forecasts with and without the volcanic sulfur injection. The results of these ensemble experiments demonstrate that including Mt. Pinatubo in seasonal forecasts would improve the forecasts of the 1991–1992 global mean temperature and precipitation but worsen the forecast of ENSO by strengthening of El Niño beyond what showed in observations. Most significant changes in the forecasts of temperatures and precipitation are limited to the tropics. The only land area where the inclusion of Pinatubo significantly lowered the forecasted precipitation is tropical Africa.

Mt. Pinatubo↗
NASA NTRS1994

Systematic stratospheric observations on the Antarctic continent at Dumont d'Urville

Results of different routine measurements performed in Dumont d'Urville (66 deg S, 140 deg E) since 1988 are presented. They include the seasonal variation of total ozone and NO2 as measured by a SAOZ UV-Visible spectrometer, Polar Stratospheric Cloud observations by a backscatter lidar and more recently, vertical ozone profiles by ECC sondes and ozone and aerosols stratospheric profiles by a DIAL lidar. The particular results of 1991 in relation with the volcanic events of Mount Pinatubo and Mount Hudson, and the position of the polar vortex over Dumont d'Urville are discussed.

Godin, S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Catastrophic loss of stratospheric ozone in dense volcanic clouds

Rapid, localized loss of ozone is predicted to occur in the midlatitude and tropical stratosphere in the presence of very large concentrations of sulfate aerosols. Volcanic eruptions can increase the effective surface area of sulfuric acid so that heterogeneous reactions involving ClONO2, and secondarily N2O5, are able to suppress NO(x) abundances by more than a factor of 10 relative to gas phase chemistry. When NO(x) levels fall below a threshold, e.g., 0.6 ppb at 24 km in mid-latitudes, the chlorine-catalyzed loss of O3 proceeds at rates comparable to those during the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, more than 50 ppb per day. If such losses occurred following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the most volcanically perturbed regions over the tropics and mid-latitudes, this model predicts that they are driven primarily by the suppression of NO(x) below these critical levels. The increase in stratospheric chlorine since El Chichon has made Mount Pinatubo more than twice as effective in causing rapid O3 loss.

Prather, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1994

The 48-inch lidar aerosol measurements taken at the Langley Research Center

This report presents lidar data taken between July 1991 and December 1992 using a ground-based 48-inch lidar instrument at the Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. Seventy lidar profiles (approximately one per week) were obtained during this period, which began less than 1 month after the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines. Plots of backscattering ratio as a function of altitude are presented for each data set along with tables containing numerical values of the backscattering ratio and backscattering coefficient versus altitude. The enhanced aerosol backscattering seen in the profiles highlights the influence of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on the stratospheric aerosol loading over Hampton. The long-term record of the profiles gives a picture of the evolution of the aerosol cloud, which reached maximum loading approximately 8 months after the eruption and then started to decrease gradually. NASA RP-1209 discusses 48-inch lidar aerosol measurements taken at the Langley Research Center from May 1974 to December 1987.

Woods, David C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Low ozone amounts during 1992 - 1993 from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometers

The global distribution of ozone during the October 31, 1978, to May 6, 1993, observing lifetime of the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) is described, with emphasis on the low ozone amounts observed during 1992 and 1993. Ozone amount time series are extended beyong May 6, 1993, to the end of July 1993 using preliminary Meteor 3 TOMS data. Time series for zonally averaged ozone amounts show that there has not been a significant shift in the seasonal patterns of ozone maxima and minima caused by the Mount Pinatubo eruption or by the onset of very low ozone values during 1992 and 1993. There has been a relatively slow, nearly linear decrease in the amount of ozone over the entire globe from 1979 to the end of 1991, with rates ranging from no change at the equator to a 4 - 6% decrease per decade at midlatitudes and a 10 - 12% decrease per decade at higher latitudes. After the eruption of Mount Pinatubo during June 1991, the ozone amount decreased in the equatorial latitudes (10 deg S to 10 deg N) for about 6 months (-10 Dobson units (DU) between 0 deg and 10 deg S and -3 DU between 0 deg and 10 deg N). During 1992 and continuing into 1993, the rate of ozone decrease deviated from the previously linear trend with the onset of changes that were large in comparison with the historical range of ozone values from 1979 to 1991. The first of the large decreases in ozone amount occurred earlier, in February 1990 to May 1990, at 50 deg - 70 deg N. At high northern latitudes, the 1993 decreased ozone amounts were about 12.5% below the envelope of historical values; at midlatitudes they were about 7% lower; and at low latitudes they were about 4% lower. Area-weighted averages in the northern and southern hemispheres show that most of the 1992 - 1993 ozone losses have occurred in the northern hemisphere. The 1993 global average (70 deg S to 70 deg N) ozone amount is 3% below the 1979 to 1991 minimum, 5% below the historical envelope in the northern hemisphere, and near the lower boundary of the historical envelope in the southern hemisphere. In the 70 deg - 60 deg S latitude band, the ozone losses between 1979 and 1993 have reduced the annual minimum amount to values below those seen in the equatorial regions.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Buffering of stratospheric circulation by changing amounts of tropical ozone - A Pinatubo case study

Stratospheric aerosol from Mount Pinatubo heated the tropical lower stratosphere by about 0.3 K/day mainly due to absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation. This heating was dissipated by: (1) an observed increase in stratospheric temperatures, which enhanced the radiation cooling; (2) additional mean upward motion, observed for the aerosol cloud, which led to adiabatic cooling; and (3) reductions in ozone concentrations resulting from enhanced upward motions. Each of these processes operated on a different time scale: maximum temperatures were observed after about 90 days; maximum ozone losses of about -1.5 ppm occurred after 140 days when the enhanced vertical velocities effectively lifted the ozone profile by about 2 km. We believe this shows that ozone plays an important role in buffering vertical motion in the tropical lower stratosphere, and hence the residual Brewer Dobson circulation of the whole stratosphere.

Kinne, S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Data pre-processing: Stratospheric aerosol perturbing effect on the remote sensing of vegetation: Correction method for the composite NDVI after the Pinatubo eruption

An operational stratospheric correction scheme used after the Mount Pinatubo (Phillipines) eruption (Jun. 1991) is presented. The stratospheric aerosol distribution is assumed to be only variable with latitude. Each 9 days the latitudinal distribution of the optical thickness is computed by inverting radiances observed in the NOAA AVHRR channel 1 (0.63 micrometers) and channel 2 (0.83 micrometers) over the Pacific Ocean. This radiance data set is used to check the validity of model used for inversion by checking consistency of the optical thickness deduced from each channel as well as optical thickness deduced from different scattering angles. Using the optical thickness profile previously computed and radiative transfer code assuming Lambertian boundary condition, each pixel of channel 1 and 2 are corrected prior to computation of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Comparison between corrected, non corrected, and years prior to Pinatubo eruption (1989 to 1990) NDVI composite, shows the necessity and the accuracy of the operational correction scheme.

Vermote, E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mt. Pinatubo's Impacts on the GEOS Forecasting System

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 had dramatic effects on the global climate, introducing a sudden and extreme forcing on the radiative budget. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), an Earth System Model that includes a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation and an interactive ocean.We performed three ten-member ensembles of 12-month simulations (June 1991-May 1992). These simulations were performed with a 0.5 longitude by 0.5 latitude horizontal resolution. Out of the three ensembles, one excludes the eruption, representing the control experiment. The other two ensembles include the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, varying in the effective radius of the volcanic sulfate: one assumed the effective radius to be equal to 0.35 micron (as for tropospheric aerosol) and the other has the effective radius set to 0.6 micron (closer to natural observation). Through the analysis of the aerosol forcing results derived from the two assumptions, we can show how this forcing acts on the seasonal forecast system. In particular, we will focus on the impacts to the surface and ocean temperatures and precipitation.

Mukherjee, Nikita↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗
NASA NTRS1994

NO2 column changes induced by volcanic eruptions

Nitrogen dioxide slant column amounts measured by ground-based remote sensing from Lauder, New Zealand (45 deg S) and Campbell Island (53 deg S) during the second half of 1991 and early 1992 show anomalously low values that are attributed to the effects of volcanic eruptions. It is believed that the eruptions of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991 and possibly Mount Hudson in Chile in August 1991 are responsible for the stratospheric changes, which first became apparent in July 1991. The effects in the spring of 1991 are manifested as a reduction in the retrieved NO2 column amounts from normal levels by 35 to 45 percent, and an accompanying increase in the overnight decay of NO2. The existence of an accurate long-term record of column NO2 from the Lauder site enables us to quantify departures from the normal seasonal behavior with some confidence. Simultaneous retrievals of column ozone agree well with Dobson measurements, confirming that only part of the NO2 changes can be attributed to a modification of the scattering geometry by volcanic aerosols. Other reasons for the observed behavior are explored, including the effects of stratospheric temperature increases resulting from the aerosol loading and the possible involvement of heterogeneous chemical processes.

Johnston, Paul V.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The post-pinatubo evolution of stratospheric aerosol surface area density as inferred from SAGE 2

Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June of 1991, the aerosol mass loading of the stratosphere increased from -1 Mt to approximately 30 Mt. This change in aerosol loading was responsible for numerous radiative and chemical changes observed within the stratosphere. As a result, the ability to quantify aerosol properties on a global basis during this period is important. Aerosol surface area density is a critical parameter in governing the rates of heterogeneous reactions, such as ClONO2 plus H2O yields HNO3 plus HOCl, which influence the stratospheric abundance of ozone. Following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, measurements by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE 2) indicated that the stratospheric aerosol surface area density increased by as much as a factor of 100. Using SAGE 2 multi-wavelength aerosol extinction data, aerosol surface area density as well as mass are derived for the period following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo through the present.

Poole, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Model Simulation of Pinatubo Volcanic Aerosols in the Stratosphere

A one-dimensional, time-dependent model is used to study the chemical, microphysical, and radiative properties of volcanic aerosols produced by the Mount Pinatubo eruption on June 15, 1991. Our model treats gas-phase sulfur photochemistry, gas-to-particle conversion of sulfur, and the microphysics of sulfate aerosols and ash particles under stratospheric conditions. The dilution and diffusion of the volcanic eruption clouds are also accounted for in these conditions. Heteromolecular homogeneous and heterogeneous binary H2SO4/H2O nucleation, acid and water condensational growth, coagulation, and gravitational sedimentation are treated in detail in the model. Simulations suggested that after several weeks, the volcanic cloud was composed mainly of sulfuric acid/water droplets produced in situ from the SO2 emissions. The large amounts of SO2 (around 20 Mt) injected into the stratosphere by the Pinatubo eruption initiated homogeneous nucleation which generated a high concentration of small H2SO4/H2O droplets. These newly formed particles grew rapidly by condensation and coagulation in the first few months and then reach their stabilized sizes with effective radii in a range between 0.3 and 0.5 micron approximately one-half year after the eruption. The predicted volcanic cloud parameters reasonably agree with measurements in term of the vertical distribution and lifetime of the volcanic aerosols, their basic microphysical structures (e.g., size distribution, concentration, mass ratio, and surface area) and radiative properties. The persistent volcanic aerosols can produce significant anomalies in the radiation field, which have important climatic consequences. The large enhancement in aerosol surface area can result in measurable global stratospheric ozone depletion.

Zhao , Jing-xia↗
NASA NTRS1992

Correction of DIAL Stratospheric Ozone Measurements in the Presence of Pinatubo Aerosols

NASA Langley's airborne lidar system measured aerosol and ozone distributions in the stratosphere from Jan. - Mar. 1992 as part of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric expedition (AASE-2). The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in Jun. 1991 has increased the aerosol burden of the stratosphere and thereby increased the importance of applying an aerosol correction to the ozone measurements. The correction relies on a Bernoulli solution to derive a backscatter correction to the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) returns at two wavelengths in the ultraviolet spectral region (lambda(sub on) = 301.5 nm, lambda(sub off) = 310.87 nm) as described in earlier works. This paper discusses how the parameters for the correction were optimized for application to the AASE-2 data set.

Fenn, Marta A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Effects of Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery

The effects of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer associated with the Mt. Pinatubo volcano and future volcanic eruptions on the recovery of the ozone layer is studied with an interactive two-dimensional photochemical model. The time varying chlorine loading and the stratospheric cooling due to increasing carbon dioxide have been taken into account. The computed ozone and temperature changes associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 agree well with observations. Long model runs out to the year 2050 have been carried out, in which volcanoes having the characteristics of the Mount Pinatubo volcano were erupted in the model at 10-year intervals starting in the year 2010. Compared to a non-volcanic run using background aerosol loading, transient reductions of globally averaged column ozone of 2-3 percent were computed as a result of each of these eruptions, with the ozone recovering to that computed for the non-volcanic case in about 5 years after the eruption. Computed springtime Arctic column ozone losses of from 10 to 18 percent also recovered to the non-volcanic case within 5 years. These results suggest that the long-term recovery of ozone would not be strongly affected by infrequent volcanic eruptions with a sulfur loading approximating Mt. Pinatubo. Sensitivity studies in which the Arctic lower stratosphere was forced to be 4 K and 10 K colder resulted in transient ozone losses of which also recovered to the non-volcanic case in 5 years. A case in which a volcano five times Mt. Pinatubo was erupted in the year 2010 led to maximum springtime column ozone losses of 45 percent which took 10 years to recover to the background case. Finally, in order to simulate a situation in which frequent smaller volcanic eruptions result in increasing the background sulfate loading, a simulation was made in which the background aerosol was increased by 10 percent per year. This resulted in a delay of the recovery of column ozone to 1980 values of more than 10 years.

Rosenfield, Joan E.↗