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Multivariate Statistical Analysis Software Technologies for Astrophysical Research Involving Large Data Bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complex database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects of the SKICAT system, and of some of the scientific results achieved to date. We also developed a user-friendly package for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. G.

Elemental Variation and Petrogenesis of Pyroxenes in HED Meteorites by Multivariable Discriminant Analysis Method

HED (Howardite, Eucrite and Diogenite) are meteorites with mafic and ultramafic igneous composition. Previous studies suggested HED came from asteroid (4) Vesta and they were generated by magmatic melting followed by differentiation crystallization, metamorphic, and impact. Uniform oxygen isotopic composition of HED samples favors global magma ocean for (4) Vesta. However, the petrological diversity of HED may indicate more complex magma processes in the meteorites. In general, most of the geochemical studies are using traditional methods (e.g. element to element or ratio to ratio plots) to classify the different rock type and groups. With the traditional methods, only limited elements can be shown in a figure. As such, some meteorites may have been identified as HED by a traditional method but found different either in isotopic composition or other elemental characteristic. These anomalous HED meteorites may or may not come from asteroid (4) Vesta. In fact, magma is a unit system where any elemental change should affect to all other elements as a whole, it would be reasonable to consider all elements together to look for the systematical changes. Using multivariable discriminant analysis (MDA) method is one of such testing for their geochemical variation. The method may be able to help us to better understand the petrologic processes and the relationship among elements. This study is to test the MDA method by focus mainly on pyroxene composition of eucrite and diogenite.

Peng, Z. X.

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

A new regression model search algorithm was developed in 2011 that may be used to analyze both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The new algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex search algorithm that was originally developed at the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression models. Therefore, the simplified search algorithm is not intended to replace the original search algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm either fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new regression model search algorithm.

multivariate experimental data

Determining the response of sea level to atmospheric pressure forcing using TOPEX/POSEIDON data

The static response of sea level to the forcing of atmospheric pressure, the so-called inverted barometer (IB) effect, is investigated using TOPEX/POSEIDON data. This response, characterized by the rise and fall of sea level to compensate for the change of atmospheric pressure at a rate of -1 cm/mbar, is not associated with any ocean currents and hence is normally treated as an error to be removed from sea level observation. Linear regression and spectral transfer function analyses are applied to sea level and pressure to examine the validity of the IB effect. In regions outside the tropics, the regression coefficient is found to be consistently close to the theoretical value except for the regions of western boundary currents, where the mesoscale variability interferes with the IB effect. The spectral transfer function shows near IB response at periods of 30 degrees is -0.84 +/- 0.29 cm/mbar (1 standard deviation). The deviation from = 1 cm /mbar is shown to be caused primarily by the effect of wind forcing on sea level, based on multivariate linear regression model involving both pressure and wind forcing. The regression coefficient for pressure resulting from the multivariate analysis is -0.96 +/- 0.32 cm/mbar. In the tropics the multivariate analysis fails because sea level in the tropics is primarily responding to remote wind forcing. However, after removing from the data the wind-forced sea level estimated by a dynamic model of the tropical Pacific, the pressure regression coefficient improves from -1.22 +/- 0.69 cm/mbar to -0.99 +/- 0.46 cm/mbar, clearly revealing an IB response. The result of the study suggests that with a proper removal of the effect of wind forcing the IB effect is valid in most of the open ocean at periods longer than 20 days and spatial scales larger than 500 km.

Fu, Lee-Lueng

Analysis techniques for multivariate root loci

Analysis and techniques are developed for the multivariable root locus and the multivariable optimal root locus. The generalized eigenvalue problem is used to compute angles and sensitivities for both types of loci, and an algorithm is presented that determines the asymptotic properties of the optimal root locus.

Thompson, P. M.

Ordinary chondrites - Multivariate statistical analysis of trace element contents

The contents of mobile trace elements (Co, Au, Sb, Ga, Se, Rb, Cs, Te, Bi, Ag, In, Tl, Zn, and Cd) in Antarctic and non-Antarctic populations of H4-6 and L4-6 chondrites, were compared using standard multivariate discriminant functions borrowed from linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression. A nonstandard randomization-simulation method was developed, making it possible to carry out probability assignments on a distribution-free basis. Compositional differences were found both between the Antarctic and non-Antarctic H4-6 chondrite populations and between two L4-6 chondrite populations. It is shown that, for various types of meteorites (in particular, for the H4-6 chondrites), the Antarctic/non-Antarctic compositional difference is due to preterrestrial differences in the genesis of their parent materials.

Lipschutz, Michael E.

Multivariate statistical analysis software technologies for astrophysical research involving large data bases

The existing and forthcoming data bases from NASA missions contain an abundance of information whose complexity cannot be efficiently tapped with simple statistical techniques. Powerful multivariate statistical methods already exist which can be used to harness much of the richness of these data. Automatic classification techniques have been developed to solve the problem of identifying known types of objects in multi parameter data sets, in addition to leading to the discovery of new physical phenomena and classes of objects. We propose an exploratory study and integration of promising techniques in the development of a general and modular classification/analysis system for very large data bases, which would enhance and optimize data management and the use of human research resources.

Djorgovski, Stanislav

Multivariate statistical analysis software technologies for astrophysical research involving large data bases

The existing and forthcoming data bases from NASA missions contain an abundance of information whose complexity cannot be efficiently tapped with simple statistical techniques. Powerful multivariate statistical methods already exist which can be used to harness much of the richness of these data. Automatic classification techniques have been developed to solve the problem of identifying known types of objects in multiparameter data sets, in addition to leading to the discovery of new physical phenomena and classes of objects. We propose an exploratory study and integration of promising techniques in the development of a general and modular classification/analysis system for very large data bases, which would enhance and optimize data management and the use of human research resource.

Djorgovski, George

A Signal Transmission Technique for Stability Analysis of Multivariable Non-Linear Control Systems

Among the difficulties associated with multivariable, non-linear control systems is the problem of assessing closed-loop stability. Of particular interest is the class of non-linear systems controlled with on/off actuators, such as spacecraft thrusters or electrical relays. With such systems, standard describing function techniques are typically too conservative, and time-domain simulation analysis is prohibitively extensive, This paper presents an open-loop analysis technique for this class of non-linear systems. The technique is centered around an innovative use of multivariable signal transmission theory to quantify the plant response to worst case control commands. The technique has been applied to assess stability of thruster controlled flexible space structures. Examples are provided for Space Shuttle attitude control with attached flexible payloads.

Jackson, Mark

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

A new regression model search algorithm was developed that may be applied to both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex algorithm that was originally developed for the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm performs regression model term reduction to prevent overfitting of data. It has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a regression model search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression model. Therefore, the simplified algorithm is not intended to replace the original algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search algorithm.

Ulbrich, Norbert M.

A Predictive Model for Lake Chad Total Surface Water Area Using Remotely Sensed and Modeled Hydrological and Meteorological Parameters and Multivariate Regression Analysis

Lake Chad is an endorheic lake in the Sahel region of Africa at the southern edge of the Sahara Desert. The lake, which is well known for its dramatic decrease in surface area during the 1970s and 1980s, experiences an annual flood resulting in a maximum total surface water area generally during February or March, though sometimes earlier or later. People along the shores of Lake Chad make their living fishing, farming, and raising livestock and have a vested interest in knowing when and how extensive the annual flooding will be, particularly those practicing recession farming in which the fertile ground of previously flooded area is used for planting crops. In this study, the authors investigate the relationship between lake and basin parameters, including rainfall, basin evapotranspiration, lake evapotranspiration, lake elevation, total surface water area, and the previous year’s total surface water area, and develop equations for each dry season month (except November) linking total surface water area to the other parameters. The resulting equations allow the user to estimate the December average monthly total surface water area of the lake in late November, and to make the estimates for January to May in early December. Based on the results of a Leave One Out Cross Validation analysis, the equations for lake area are estimated to have an average absolute error ranging from 5.3 percent (for February estimates) to 7.6 percent (for May estimates).

Lake Chad

Functional Groups Based on Leaf Physiology: Are they Spatially and Temporally Robust?

The functional grouping hypothesis, which suggests that complexity in ecosystem function can be simplified by grouping species with similar responses, was tested in the Florida scrub habitat. Functional groups were identified based on how species in fire maintained Florida scrub regulate exchange of carbon and water with the atmosphere as indicated by both instantaneous gas exchange measurements and integrated measures of function (%N, delta C-13, delta N-15, C-N ratio). Using cluster analysis, five distinct physiologically-based functional groups were identified in the fire maintained scrub. These functional groups were tested to determine if they were robust spatially, temporally, and with management regime. Analysis of Similarities (ANOSIM), a non-parametric multivariate analysis, indicated that these five physiologically-based groupings were not altered by plot differences (R = -0.115, p = 0.893) or by the three different management regimes; prescribed burn, mechanically treated and burn, and fire-suppressed (R = 0.018, p = 0.349). The physiological groupings also remained robust between the two climatically different years 1999 and 2000 (R = -0.027, p = 0.725). Easy-to-measure morphological characteristics indicating functional groups would be more practical for scaling and modeling ecosystem processes than detailed gas-exchange measurements, therefore we tested a variety of morphological characteristics as functional indicators. A combination of non-parametric multivariate techniques (Hierarchical cluster analysis, non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling, and ANOSIM) were used to compare the ability of life form, leaf thickness, and specific leaf area classifications to identify the physiologically-based functional groups. Life form classifications (ANOSIM; R = 0.629, p 0.001) were able to depict the physiological groupings more adequately than either specific leaf area (ANOSIM; R = 0.426, p = 0.001) or leaf thickness (ANOSIM; R 0.344, p 0.001). The ability of life forms to depict the physiological groupings was improved by separating the parasitic Ximenia americana from the shrub category (ANOSIM; R = 0.794, p = 0.001). Therefore, a life form classification including parasites was determined to be a good indicator of the physiological processes of scrub species, and would be a useful method of grouping for scaling physiological processes to the ecosystem level.

Foster, Tammy E.

Accuracy of remotely sensed data: Sampling and analysis procedures

A review and update of the discrete multivariate analysis techniques used for accuracy assessment is given. A listing of the computer program written to implement these techniques is given. New work on evaluating accuracy assessment using Monte Carlo simulation with different sampling schemes is given. The results of matrices from the mapping effort of the San Juan National Forest is given. A method for estimating the sample size requirements for implementing the accuracy assessment procedures is given. A proposed method for determining the reliability of change detection between two maps of the same area produced at different times is given.

Congalton, R. G.