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At least 37 records · Page 2

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global N2O cycles - Terrestrial emissions, atmospheric accumulation and biospheric effects

Recent findings concerning the budget and cycles of nitrous oxide on earth are summarized, and the sources and sinks for N2O on land, in the ocean, and in the atmosphere are examined in view of the N2O concentration increase of 0.2-0.4 percent per year, observed over the period of 1975-1982. Possible atmospheric and biospheric consequences of the N2O concentration increase are evaluated. N2O emission values are given for several major ecosystem types, such as forest, desert, cultivated land; values from different sources are compared and discussed. Analysis shows an excess of documented sources over sinks by 0-51 Tg N2O-N/yr.

Banin, A.↗

Higher than expected N 2 O emissions from soybean crops in the Pampas Region of Argentina: Estimates from DayCent simulations and field measurements

In developing countries, agriculture generally represents a large fraction of GHG emissions reported in National Inventories, and emissions are typically estimated using Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. However, field data and locally adapted simulation models can improve the accuracy of IPCC estimations. In this report we aimed to quantify anthropogenic N2O emissions from croplands of Argentina through field measurements, model simulations and IPCC guidelines. Here we measured N 2 O emissions and their controlling factors in 62 plots of the Pampas Region with corn, soybean and wheat/soybean crops and in unmanaged grasslands. We accounted for gross emissions from crops and background emissions from unmanaged grasslands to calculate net anthropogenic emissions from crops as the difference between them. We calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model and then simulated different weather and management scenarios. Finally, we applied IPCC guidelines to estimate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions at the same plots. The DayCent model accurately simulated annual N 2 O emission for all crops as compared to measured data (RMSE = 1.4 g N ha -1 day -1 ). Measured and simulated emissions in soybean crops were higher than in corn and wheat/soybean crops. Gross N 2 O emissions ranged from 1.4 to 5.1 kg N ha -1 yr -1 for current environmental (soil and weather) and management (crops and fertilizer doses) conditions. Background emissions ranged between 1.1 and 1.3 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , and therefore net anthropogenic emissions ranged from 0.3 to 4.0 kg N ha-1 yr -1 . IPCC Tier 1 emission factors underestimated N2O releases from soybean, that were on average 4.87 times greater when estimated with DayCent and observations (0.53 vs 2.47 and 2.69 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , respectively). On the contrary, IPCC estimates for corn and wheat/soybean crops were similar to modeled and measured values. Our results suggest that N 2 O emissions from the vast 15 million ha of soybean croplands in the Pampas Region may be substantially underestimated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Linkages Between Ozone-depleting Substances, Tropospheric Oxidation and Aerosols

Coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere allows changes in stratospheric ozone abundances to affect tropospheric chemistry. Large-scale effects from such changes on chemically produced tropospheric aerosols have not been systematically examined in past studies. We use a composition-climate model to investigate potential past and future impacts of changes in stratospheric ozone depleting substances (ODS) on tropospheric oxidants and sulfate aerosols. In most experiments, we find significant responses in tropospheric photolysis and oxidants, with small but significant effects on methane radiative forcing. The response of sulfate aerosols is sizeable when examining the effect of increasing future nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. We also find that without the regulation of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) through the Montreal Protocol, sulfate aerosols could have increased by 2050 by a comparable amount to the decreases predicted due to relatively stringent sulfur emissions controls. The individual historical radiative forcings of CFCs and N2O through their indirect effects on methane (−22.6mW/sq. m for CFCs and −6.7mW/sq. m for N2O) and sulfate aerosols (−3.0mW/sq. m for CFCs and +6.5mW/sq. m for N2O when considering the direct aerosol effect) discussed here are non-negligible when compared to known historical ODS forcing. Our results stress the importance of accounting for stratosphere-troposphere, gas-aerosol and composition-climate interactions when investigating the effects of changing emissions on atmospheric composition and climate.

troposphere↗

Efficiency and emissions of NH3-diesel/bio-pilot dual-fuel combustion in a high-speed four-stroke engine

While dual-fuel ammonia engines are starting to be commercialized for the large low-speed 2-stroke marine engine market, there are still challenges with utilizing ammonia on 4-stroke engines used as auxiliary engines for ocean going vessels and within inland and coastal marine applications. The shorter timescales for high-speed engines pose a particular challenge for low-cetane, high ignition energy fuels like ammonia. In addition to achieving maximum ammonia substitution levels, N2O emissions are a key factor that needs to be understood. This paper reports the results of experiments using a single-cylinder 107mm bore Cummins B-series diesel engine modified for port-fuel injection of gaseous anhydrous ammonia with a direct injection of diesel fuel near-TDC to ignite the premixed ammonia. Combustion data as well as emissions data from an FTIR including NO, NO2, N2O, and unburned ammonia are presented for selected operating points with a focus on high-load operation at 1200rpm with high ammonia energy substitution (over 95% by fuel energy). Several air/fuel ratio conditions are included, sweeping from diesel-like airflow to stoichiometric conditions. The impact of biofuels (biodiesel and renewable diesel) as pilot fuels is also considered. Comparisons for emissions, greenhouse gas performance, and efficiency are made with a conventional diesel combustion baseline. The impact of fuel injection strategy on NOx, N2O, and NH3 emissions is quantified, and the dual-fuel ammonia results on this high-speed 4-stroke engine are expected to provide fundamental insights into further combustion development opportunities for the larger engines used across marine applications.

Kaul, Brian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000184813620)↗

Atmospheric emissions and trends of nitrous oxide deduced from 10 years of ALE-GAGE data

Long-term measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) obtained during the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE) and the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE) for a period from 1978 to 1988 are presented and interpreted. It is observed that the average concentration in the Northern Hemisphere is 0.75 +/- 0.16 ppbv higher than in the Southern Hemisphere and that the global average linear trend in N2O lies in the range from 0.25 to 0.31 percent/year. The measured trends and latitudinal distributions are shown to be consistent with the hypothesis that stratospheric photodissociation is the major atmospheric sink for N2O, while the cause of the N2O trend is suggested to be a combination of a growing tropical source and a growing Northern mid-latitude source. A 10-year average global N2O emission rate of (20.5 +/- 2.4) x 10 to the 12th g N2O/year is deduced from the ALE/GAGE data.

Prinn, R.↗

Examining experimental nitrogen-based emissions trends from ammonia/diesel and ammonia/hydrogen/diesel combustion

Ammonia has garnered interest as an alternative fuel for power sectors with heavy payload and distance requirements, such as shipping. In this study, ammonia was used in a dual-fuel compression-ignition combustion strategy to overcome some of its technical barriers, using a diesel pilot to ignite a premixed mixture of ammonia and air. Mixtures of premixed ammonia and hydrogen were also explored to evaluate whether the inclusion of hydrogen improves nitrogen-based emissions from the combustion process. A single-cylinder version of a Cummins ISB 6.7 L engine platform was used to experimentally study these effects at various global air/fuel ratios and hydrogen energy fractions. Hydrogen inclusion produced pronounced NOx and N2O emissions, while inclusion of trapped residuals increased N2O but reduced NOx. The two most recent and relevant mechanisms available in the literature—those from Xu and Zhang-Ren-Kokjohn—were used in a chemical kinetics analysis to examine the observed differences in the NOx trends from two dual-fuel ammonia/diesel datasets: (1) in which a portion of the premixed ammonia was substituted with hydrogen and (2) in which the effect of hot trapped residuals was evaluated with only ammonia/air premixed mixtures. The analysis with both mechanisms showed agreement with experimental trends; however, contributions from thermal vs. fuel-borne NOx pathways showed disagreement. A reaction pathway analysis showed that the HNO to NO pathway was the key to NO formation in the mixture.

Tyrewala, Daanish [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000208599324)↗

Kuwait oil fires - Compositions of source smoke

While the Kuwait oil-fire smoke plumes manifested a pronounced impact on solar radiation in the Gulf region (such as visibility and surface temperatures), smoke plume concentrations of combustion-generated pollutants suggest that the overall chemical impact on the atmosphere of the smoke from these fires was probably much less than anticipated. Combustion in the Kuwaiti oil fires was surprisingly efficient, releasing on average more than 93 percent of the combusted hydrocarbon fuels as CO2. Correspondingly, combustion-produced quantities of carbon monoxide (CO) and carbonaceous particles were low, each about 2 percent by weight. The fraction of CH4 produced by the fires was also relatively low (about 0.2 percent), but source emissions of nonmethane hydrocarbons were high (about 2 percent). Processes other than combustion (e.g., volatilization) probably contributed significantly to the measured in-plume hydrocarbon concentrations. Sulfur emissions (particulate and gaseous) measured at the source fires were lower (about 0.5 percent) than predicted based on average sulfur contents in the crude. N2O emissions from the Kuwaiti oil fires were very low and often could not be distinguished from background concentrations.

Cofer, Wesley R., III↗

Data from: Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N2O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

The long-term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N2O flux measurements with site-specific Michaelis-Menten kinetics of nitrification-derived N2O, we test the relative importance of nitrification-derived N2O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N2O fluxes was 13-17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27-42% in a low-input cover-cropped annual cropping system, and 52-63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be less than 10% of these values because of low N2O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04 to 8% of NH3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available NH4+ in situ. Most nitrification-derived N2O was produced by ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) rather than archaea (AOA), who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification-derived N2O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification-derived N2O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification-derived N2O (higher Vmax) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N2O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate-carbon feedback tradeoff between Arctic and alpine permafrost under warming

Whether greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from permafrost will trigger positive climate feedbacks under warming remains unknown. Here, we synthesized the response of growing season carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to experimentally manipulated warming of ~2°C for permafrost in alpine and Arctic regions. Warming weakened the GHG sink of alpine permafrost, thereby increasing (13%) its global warming potential, but strengthened the GHG sink of Arctic permafrost and decreased (-10%) its global warming potential. When warming caused drying of alpine permafrost soils, the CO2 sink weakened but the CH4 sink increased. In contrast, warming of relatively wet Arctic permafrost increased the CO2 sink and CH4 source. Warming led to much stronger increases of the N2O source in alpine than Arctic permafrost. Although keeping additional warming below 2°C in permafrost regions can avoid the positive permafrost-climate feedback, measures are needed to maintain fragile carbon sink of alpine permafrost ecosystems.

Bao, Tao↗

Terrestrial nitrous oxide cycles and atmospheric effects

The basic processes that cause N2O emission from soils are briefly discussed, and the rate of the processes is shown to vary widely in space and time, depending on soil, climate, and agrotechnical conditions. Although significant amounts of N2O are indeed emitted from the land, the complexity of the soil processes involved and the wide variation of measured rates still prevents the quantitative evaluation, global budgeting, and reliable prediction of atmospheric N2O. Increased atmospheric N2O abundance increases the levels of odd-nitrogen in the stratosphere, which, in turn, decreases the stratospheric ozone density via a catalytic cycle. Using appropriate atmospheric models and current chemical kinetic data, it has been found that the dependence of ozone reduction on N2O increase is nearly linear; a simulated doubling of N2O leads to a predicted decrease of about 14 percent in total ozone column density. A 10 percent increase in N2O yields a predicted increase in nonmelanoma skin cancer of several percent, and a possible raising of surface temperature of 0.03 K.

Whitten, R. C.↗

Assessing Non-CO2 Climate-Forcing Emissions and Mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

There are few direct measurements of anthropogenic climate-forcing emissions in Africa, making it difficult to accurately assess current emissions and to anticipate changes in future emissions. Emissions databases suggest that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to less than 15 of the world's population, is responsible for 11 of anthropogenic methane (CH4) and 18 of anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions globally, though this includes substantial emissions from biomass burning that would occur in the absence of contemporary anthropogenic activity, and which may be over-estimated. SSA is also an important source of precursors to the greenhouse gas tropospheric ozone, and of mineral dust, which has a range of impacts on climate. Eliminating food insecurity and poverty is likely to take priority over greenhouse gas mitigation in the region, so innovations in mitigation must focus on ways to reduce emissions as an ancillary benefit of improving livelihoods.

Africa↗

Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in native, fertilized and cultivated grasslands

Measurements of CH4 uptake and N2O emissions in native, nitrogen-fertilized, and wheat-growing prairie soils from spring to late autumn, 1990 are reported. It is found that nitrogen fertilization and cultivation can both decrease CH4 uptake and increase N2O production, thereby contributing to the increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases.

Mosier, A.↗

Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs and Impacts on Oceanic N2O Fluxes in the Northern Indian Ocean: the Need for an Integrated Observation and Modelling Approach

Anthropogenically-derived nitrogen input to the northern Indian Ocean has increased significantly in recent decades, based on both observational and model derived estimates This external nutrient source is supplied by atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, and has the potential to affect the vulnerable biogeochemical systems of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, influencing productivity and oceanic production of the greenhouse-gas nitrous-oxide (N2O). We summarize current estimates of this external nitrogen source to the northern Indian Ocean from observations and models, highlight implications for regional marine N2O emissions using model-based analyses, and make recommendations for measurement and model needs to improve current estimates and future predictions of this impact. Current observationally-derived estimates of deposition and riverine nitrogen inputs are limited by sparse measurements and uncertainties on accurate characterization of nitrogen species composition. Ocean model assessments of the impact of external nitrogen sources on regional marine N2O production in the northern Indian Ocean estimate potentially significant changes but also have large associated uncertainties. We recommend an integrated program of basin-wide measurements combined with high-resolution modeling and more detailed characterization of nitrogen-cycle process to address these uncertainties and improve current estimates and predictions.

Parvadha Suntharalingam↗

Limited effects of tannin supplementation on the dairy cattle fecal microbiome with modulation of metabolites

Tannins are plant secondary metabolites that bind organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), potentially altering substrate bioavailability for enteric fermentation in ruminants. This interaction may reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and influence nitrogen partitioning. Given tannins' resistance to ruminal degradation and persistence through the gastrointestinal tract, this study investigated the effects of a tannin-based feed additive on fecal microbial diversity, fecal chemical composition, and GHG emissions. Twenty-four early- to mid-lactation dairy cows were randomized to receive either a tannin-based feed additive (TRT; containing condensed and hydrolyzable tannins from Schinopsis quebracho-colorado [Schltdl.]) or a control diet (CON) for 64 days. Cows were blocked by parity, dry matter intake, milk yield, body weight, and days in milk. Fecal samples were collected on days 0, 16, 32, and 64 and analyzed using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Fecal C, N, and indole-3-lactate were measured, and GHG emissions (N2O, CH4, CO2) were assessed via 14-day laboratory incubation. A total of 1,538 amplicon sequence variants were identified, with Firmicutes as the dominant phylum. Fecal phylogenetic diversity showed a significant treatment × day interaction (p < 0.01), with TRT cows exhibiting reduced microbial diversity from day 16 to 64. Fecal C and N concentrations were significantly lower (p < 0.01) in TRT cows on day 16, while indole-3-lactate levels were higher on day 64 (p = 0.02). GHG emissions did not differ significantly between treatments. The tannin-based feed additive influenced fecal microbial community structure and select chemical parameters but did not significantly affect GHG emissions from feces. These findings suggest that dietary tannins may modulate gut microbial ecology with minimal impact on downstream manure-related emissions.

Klein, Matthew L↗

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from lipids is a technologically mature approach for replacing conventional fossil fuel use in the aviation sector, and there is increasing demand for such feedstocks. The oilseed Brassica carinata (known as Ethiopian mustard or simply carinata) is a promising SAF feedstock that can be grown as a supplemental cash crop over the winter fallow season of various annual crop rotations in the Southeast US, avoiding land use changes and potentially achieving some of the soil carbon sequestration and ecosystem service benefits of winter cover crops. However, carinata may require more intensive management than traditional cover crops, potentially leading to additional soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through increased carbon losses from soil tillage and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application. In this work, the 2017 version of the process-based DayCent ecosystem model was used to establish initial expectations for the total regional SAF production potential and associated soil GHG emissions when carinata is integrated as a winter crop into the existing crop rotations across its current suitability range in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and northern Florida. Using data from academic and industry carinata field trials in the region, DayCent was calibrated to reproduce carinata yield, nitrogen response, harvest index, and biomass carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. The resulting model was then used to simulate the integration of carinata every third winter across all 2.1 Mha of actively cultivated cropland in the study area. The model predicted regional average yields of 2.9–3.0 Mg carinata seed per hectare depending on crop management assumptions. That results in the production of more than two million Mg of carinata seed annually across the study area, enough to supply approximately one billion liters of SAF. Conventional management of carinata led to only modest increases in soil carbon storage that were largely offset by additional N2O emissions. Climate-smart management via adopting no-till carinata establishment or using poultry litter as a nitrogen source resulted in a substantial net soil GHG sink (0.23–0.31 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 , or 0.24–0.32 Mg CO2e per Mg of seed produced) at the farms where carinata is cultivated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corn and Switchgrass Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel Carbon Intensity

The production and use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could lower aviation's carbon footprint. Feedstock agricultural management can optimize—or potentially determine—SAF sustainability and profitability, but long-term SAF feedstock comparisons are limited. Life cycle assessments (LCA) are commonly used to estimate the carbon intensity of producing SAF from emerging feedstocks due to the limited availability of long-term, primary field data. We quantified the agricultural phase and well-to-wake (WTWa) carbon intensities of producing SAF from no-till, continuous corn (Zea mays L.) under 120 kg N ha−1 year−1 (120 N corn) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) under 60 or 120 kg N ha−1 year−1 (60 N and 120 N SWG, respectively) via LCAs based on measured data from a long-term (1998-present) field experiment on marginally productive cropland located in Eastern NE, USA. Measured data included crop productivity, long-term changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks (0–150 cm), annual soil N2O emissions, and field management practices. Both 120 N corn (2078 L ha−1) and 120 N SWG (1752 L ha−1) produced more SAF than 60 N SWG (1229 L ha−1) (p < 0.0001). However, making SAF from corn had greater life cycle GHG emissions (i.e., WTWa carbon intensity) than making SAF from 120 N and 60 N SWG (61.5 > −14.5 and −27.5 g CO2e MJ−1 SAF, respectively; p = 0.0007), primarily due to SOC accrual during crop production. Here, we demonstrate that agricultural management (e.g., crop type, fertilizer use) can determine the sustainably and productivity of producing SAF by using long-term, measured field data in LCAs.

carbon intensity↗

Low-Cost X-Ray CT System for Imaging of Roots

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate an innovative, low cost, field deployable, stationary 3D x-ray computed tomography (CT) system that will image total root phenotypes with a micron size resolution at a throughput of hundreds of plants per cycle. This system is based on UHV’s unique low cost linear x-ray tube technology and sophisticated reconstruction & image segmentation algorithms developed at University of Massachusetts, Lowel and University of Nottingham; and was tested for several types of soils at University of Wisconsin and Texas A&M University. Currently, no technologies exist that have been designed to image roots in complex media such as agricultural field conditions. Due to its small size, high resolution & fast imaging of fine roots, low power consumption, large penetration depth (i.e. ability to see through several feet of soil) and ease of field deployability, this CT system will increase the speed and efficacy of discovery, field translation, and deployment of improved crops and systems that improve soil carbon accumulation and storage, decrease N2O emissions, and improve water efficiency leading towards advancements that could mitigate 10% of the total US Greenhouse gases. This degree of imaging in the field has never been available and would be invaluable to scientists in understanding how environmental conditions and phenotypic variations contribute to carbon deposition through root development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗