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Response patterns of simulated corn yield and soil nitrous oxide emission to precipitation change

Abstract Background Precipitation plays an important role in crop production and soil greenhouse gas emissions. However, how crop yield and soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission respond to precipitation change, particularly with different background precipitations (dry, normal, and wet years), has not been well investigated. In this study, we examined the impacts of precipitation changes on corn yield and soil N 2 O emission using a long-term (1981–2020, 40 years) climate dataset as well as seven manipulated precipitation treatments with different background precipitations using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. Results Results showed large variations of corn yield and precipitation but small variation of soil N 2 O emission among 40 years. Both corn yield and soil N 2 O emission showed near linear relationships with precipitation based on the long-term precipitation data, but with different response patters of corn yield and soil N 2 O emission to precipitation manipulations. Corn yield showed a positive linear response to precipitation manipulations in the dry year, but no response to increases in precipitation in the normal year, and a trend of decrease in the wet year. The extreme drought treatments reduced corn yield sharply in both normal and wet years. In contrast, soil N 2 O emission mostly responded linearly to precipitation manipulations. Decreases in precipitation in the dry year reduced more soil N 2 O emission than those in the normal and wet years, while increases in precipitation increased more soil N 2 O emission in the normal and wet years than in the dry year. Conclusions This study revealed different response patterns of corn yield and soil N 2 O emission to precipitation and highlights that mitigation strategy for soil N 2 O emission reduction should consider different background climate conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical Reactor Network Modeling of Ammonia Rich-Quench-Lean Combustion Using a Partially Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative fuel, but its use is challenging due to low flammability and high nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in reducing NOx emissions. This approach involves two stages: a rich stage that oxidizes part of the fuel and decomposes ammonia into hydrogen, and a lean stage that burns out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Researchers used a chemical reactor network model to study the effects of heat loss and mixing on emissions performance. They found that heat loss and reduced mixing rates can lead to increased NOx emissions and N2O formation. The results will inform the development of optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia, with a focus on minimizing NOx emissions and improving overall efficiency.

ammonia combustion↗

Precipitation and nitrogen application stimulate soil nitrous oxide emission

Precipitation and nitrogen (N) fertilization are the two most important drivers for soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission. However, the effects of changes in N fertilization and precipitation patterns (i.e., precipitation intensity and frequency) on N 2 O emissions in agricultural fields are still unclear. In this study, we simulated soil N 2 O emission under different precipitation patterns (6 precipitation intensities, and 12 precipitation frequencies by either merging or splitting precipitation events) and N fertilization rates (low, typical, and high N fertilization) in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition model. The model was parameterized and validated using meteorological data and N experimental measurements in Nashville, Tennessee, USA. Results showed that soil water filled pore space (WFPS) and simulated soil N 2 O emission increased as precipitation intensity increased. Less frequent but high intensity precipitation treatments reduced the soil WFPS by 25.2% and stimulated soil N 2 O emission by 45.3%, while more frequent but low intensity precipitation treatments increased soil WFPS by 9.0% and reduced soil N 2 O emission by 23.9%. Compared to typical N fertilization, the sensitivity of soil N 2 O emission to precipitation was higher under high N than low N fertilization treatments, and the response ratios were 50.0% and 40.1%, respectively. There was significant interactive effect of precipitation intensity and N fertilization on soil N 2 O emission. Furthermore, these findings improved our understanding of precipitation and N impacts on soil N 2 O emissions and provided useful knowledge for irrigation and N fertilizer management in agriculture to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Modeled Seasonal Cycles of Surface N 2 O Fluxes and Atmospheric N 2 O

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N 2 O-depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N 2 O (aN 2 O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N 2 O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN 2 O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre-industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal-average N 2 O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak-to-peak amplitudes differ several-fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN 2 O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN 2 O, inferred by the difference between the surface-troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ~1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre-industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN 2 O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN 2 O observations and atmospheric transport-chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon-nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Beyond denitrification: The role of microbial diversity in controlling nitrous oxide reduction and soil nitrous oxide emissions

Many biotic and abiotic processes contribute to nitrous oxide (N 2 O) production in the biosphere, but N 2 O consumption in the environment has heretofore been attributed primarily to canonical denitrifying microorganisms. The nosZ genes encoding the N 2 O reductase enzyme, NosZ, responsible for N 2 O reduction to dinitrogen are now known to include two distinct groups: the well-studied Clade I which denitrifiers typically possess, and the novel Clade II possessed by diverse groups of microorganisms, most of which are non-denitrifiers. Clade II N 2 O reducers could play an important, previously unrecognized role in controlling N 2 O emissions for several reasons, including: (1) the consumption of N 2 O produced by processes other than denitrification, (2) hypothesized non-respiratory functions of NosZ as an electron sink or for N 2 O detoxification, (3) possible differing enzyme kinetics of Clade II NosZ compared to Clade I NosZ, and (4) greater nosZ gene abundance for Clade II compared to Clade I in soils of many ecosystems. Despite the potential ecological significance of Clade II NosZ, a census of 800 peer-reviewed original research articles discussing nosZ and published from 2013 to 2019 showed that the percentage of articles evaluating or mentioning Clade II nosZ increased from 5% in 2013 to only 22% in 2019. The census revealed that the slowly spreading awareness of Clade II nosZ may result in part from disciplinary silos, with the percentage of nosZ articles mentioning Clade II nosZ ranging from 0% in Agriculture and Agronomy journals to 32% in Multidisciplinary Sciences journals. In addition, inconsistent nomenclature for Clade I nosZ and Clade II nosZ, with 17 different terminologies used in the literature, may have created confusion about the two distinct groups of N 2 O reducers. Furthermore, we provide recommendations to accelerate advances in understanding the role of the diversity of N 2 O reducers in regulating soil N 2 O emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NitroNet: Smart System to Quantify Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Agricultural croplands are the largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), the third most important greenhouse gas. Emissions are characterized by “hot spots” and “hot moments”, meaning emissions are highly heterogeneous in space and time. Emissions are driven by nitrification and denitrification processes which depend upon complex factors such as soil characteristics (type, compaction, pH, moisture, topography), management practices (fertilizer type and application, tillage, crop type, field history, irrigation), biogeochemistry (organic carbon, microbial composition), and meteorology (precipitation, temperature, and wind). For these reasons, quantifying cropland emissions by either measurements or modeling is extremely challenging with large uncertainties.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

On Road vs. Off Road Low Load Cycle Comparison

Reducing criteria pollutants while reducing greenhouse gases is an active area of research for commercial on-road vehicles as well as for off-road machines. The heavy duty on-road sector has moved to reducing NOx by 82.5% compared to 2010 regulations while increasing the engine useful life from 435,000 to 650,000 miles by 2027 in the United States (US). An additional certification cycle, the Low Load Cycle (LLC), has been added focusing on part load operation having tight NOx emissions levels. In addition to NOx, the total CO2 emissions from the vehicle will also be reduced for various model years. The off-road market is following with a 90% NOx reduction target compared to Tier 4 Final for 130-560 kW engines along with greenhouse gas targets that are still being established. The off-road market will also need to certify with a Low Load Application Cycle (LLAC), a version of which was proposed for evaluation in 2021. Since the LLAC has not been finalized, this study is being conducted to compare and contrast the LLC for on-road with the LLAC for off-road as there might be some shared learnings. A US off-road production 2023 Fiat Powertrain 13L engine and aftertreatment system was chosen for this work. This engine is used in production for both off-road and on-road products, so it is a good choice for this study. The associated off-road aftertreatment system was aged for more relevant comparisons. The engine calibration was not altered for either of the low load cycles. This study shows that the cycles are quite different in nature as the market needs are different. The LLC includes a large fraction of operation at idle and lower speeds, representing products that use the engine primarily for motive power, where lower vehicle speed means a lower engine speed and load. The LLAC has more time and load spent at high speeds and slightly higher loads. The off-road products represented by this cycle often use the engine to drive auxiliary equipment which means higher parasitic loads and hand/fixed throttle. The comparison will include the use profiles, tailpipe NOx and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O).

McCarthy, James↗

Effects of Vegetation on Fluxes of Nitric Oxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Nitrous Oxide in a Mixed Deciduous Forest Clearing

Atmosphere-terrestrial exchange of nitrogen oxides, such as nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plays an important role in controlling atmospheric composition and the radiative forcing of Earth’s atmosphere. In this study, the impact of vegetation ground cover on NOx (NOx = NO + NO2) and N2O fluxes in a deciduous forest clearing was studied using dynamic flow chambers located on three experimental plots with differing vegetation ground cover. Microbial emissions of NO and N2O were observed throughout the measurement period, while NO2 was exclusively deposited. Vegetation had no observable impact on NO2 deposition. Under dry conditions, total measured nitrogen emissions were numerically similar across all plots, although the N2O:NO ratio was higher for plots containing plants. Vegetation elevates soil water content through enhanced water retention, a condition that favors denitrification and more N2O production, relative to NO. Two rain events induced pulses of NO and N2O that were higher for bare soil compared to the vegetated plots. Lower NO and N2O emissions in plant-containing chambers stemmed from enhanced root uptake of N following rewetting, which diminished the amount of N substrate available for microbial NO and N2O production. The sensitivity of soil N emissions to vegetation ground cover highlights the need for more studies that investigate this effect over a wide range of ecosystems and to include vegetation effects in future parameterizations of soil NOx and N2O used in atmospheric models. This dataset includes processed data collected from 4 dynamic flux chambers and 17 sensors. Data includes ambient gas measurements made 1 m from the surface and soil flux measurements of NO, NO2, N2O, ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Also included is a suite of meteorological (air temperature, humidity, pressure) and soil parameters (water filled pore space, soil temperature). Refer to the readme for more information about each of the data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct Numerical Simulation of Flame-Wall Interaction for Low-Carbon Gas Turbine Combustion

Green hydrogen (H2) and ammonia (NH3) are emerging as carbon free alternatives to hydrocarbon fuels. In gas turbines, flames interact with the combustor liner (wall), which affects the pollutant emissions, the burning efficiency, and the thermal load on the liner. We lack understanding of this important flame-wall interaction (FWI) for alternative fuels. FWI occurs at the scale of the flame thickness, and such scales are only resolved by direct numerical simulation. Here, we resolve the FWI for NH3 and H2 flames. Preliminary results of two distinct projects are presented: 2D laminar anchored V-flame, and 3D turbulent swirling flame. For the laminar flame, we show flame quenching at the wall and resulting leakage of NH3 and increased N2O, but decreased NO emissions. For the swirling flame, we show CO emissions, and comparison of flame shapes and location to experimental measurements. Ultimately we show that quenching and pollutant emissions strongly affected by fuel/air ratio, and that an inclined wall can stabilize very lean turbulent CH4/H2 flames, but prone to large CO emissions.

adaptive mesh refinement↗

Estimating soil N 2 O emissions induced by organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs using a Tier-2, regression-based meta-analytic approach for U.S. agricultural lands

Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic insights into N 2 O formation as a side product in NH 3 -SCR over small pore Cu-zeolites

Here, the present contribution provides clarity to N 2 O formation mechanisms and key influencing factors during low temperature NH 3 -SCR, with the goal of enabling the rational design of advanced SCR catalysts with low greenhouse gas impact. By studying more than 50 small pore Cu-exchanged zeolite SCR catalyst samples, including model catalysts synthesized in our laboratories and state-of-the-art industrial catalysts, we explored a wide range of factors affecting N 2 O formation. These factors included Cu loading, support Si/Al ratio, support topology, catalyst aging, reaction temperature and reactant feed composition effects. We probed N 2 O formation under both steady-state SCR, and during NH 4 NO 3 decomposition via temperature programmed desorption (TPD). Finally, we used DFT to probe energetics of possible N 2 O formation pathways. Based on these studies, we confirm that low temperature N 2 O formation occurs via multiple reaction pathways that all involve NH 4 NO 3 and are supported by Cu moieties that facilitate in-situ NO oxidation to NO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A comprehensive and synthetic dataset for global, regional, and national greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1970–2018 with an extension to 2019

To track progress towards keeping global warming well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, comprehensive up-to-date and reliable information on anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required. Here we compile a new synthetic dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. Our dataset is global in coverage and includes CO 2 emissions, CH 4 emissions, N 2 O emissions, as well as those from fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 , NF 3 ) and provides country and sector details. We build this dataset from the version 6 release of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6) and three bookkeeping models for CO 2 emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). We assess the uncertainties of global greenhouse gases at the 90 % confidence interval (5th–95th percentile range) by combining statistical analysis and comparisons of global emissions inventories and top-down atmospheric measurements with an expert judgement informed by the relevant scientific literature. We identify important data gaps for F-gas emissions. The agreement between our bottom-up inventory estimates and top-down atmospheric-based emissions estimates is relatively close for some F-gas species (~ 10 % or less), but estimates can differ by an order of magnitude or more for others. Our aggregated F-gas estimate is about 10 % lower than top-down estimates in recent years. However, emissions from excluded F-gas species such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are cumulatively larger than the sum of the reported species. Using global warming potential values with a 100-year time horizon from the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global GHG emissions in 2018 amounted to 58 ± 6.1 GtCO 2 eq. consisting of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI) 38 ± 3.0 GtCO 2 , CO 2 -LULUCF 5.7 ± 4.0 GtCO 2 , CH 4 10 ± 3.1 GtCO 2 eq., N2O 2.6 ± 1.6 GtCO 2 eq., and F-gases 1.3 ± 0.40 GtCO 2 eq. Initial estimates suggest further growth of 1.3 GtCO 2 eq. in GHG emissions to reach 59 ± 6.6 GtCO 2 eq. by 2019. Our analysis of global trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 5 decades (1970–2018) highlights a pattern of varied but sustained emissions growth. There is high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased every decade, and emissions growth has been persistent across the different (groups of) gases. There is also high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions levels were higher in 2009–2018 than in any previous decade and that GHG emissions levels grew throughout the most recent decade. While the average annual GHG emissions growth rate slowed between 2009 and 2018 (1.2 % yr –1 ) compared to 2000–2009 (2.4 % yr –1 ), the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions by decade was never larger than between 2000–2009 and 2009–2018. Our analysis further reveals that there are no global sectors that show sustained reductions in GHG emissions. There are a number of countries that have reduced GHG emissions over the past decade, but these reductions are comparatively modest and outgrown by much larger emissions growth in some developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. There is a need to further develop independent, robust, and timely emissions estimates across all gases. As such, tracking progress in climate policy requires substantial investments in independent GHG emissions accounting and monitoring as well as in national and international statistical infrastructures. The data associated with this article (Minx et al., 2021) can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5566761.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions and optimizing nitrogen-use efficiency in dryland crop rotations with different nitrogen rates

Recent interests in improving agricultural production while minimizing environmental footprints emphasized the need for research on management strategies that reduce nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and increase nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) of cropping systems. This study aimed to evaluate N 2 O emissions, annualized crop grain yield, emission factor, and yield-scaled- and NUE-scaled N 2 O emissions under continuous spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (CW) and spring wheat-pea (Pisum sativum L.) (WP) rotations with four N fertilization rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg N ha(-1)). The N 2 O fluxes peaked immediately after N fertilization, intense precipitation, and snowmelt, which accounted for 75-85% of the total annual flux. Cumulative N 2 O flux usually increased with increased N fertilization rate in all crop rotations and years. Annualized crop yield and NUE were greater in WP than CW for 0 kg N ha(-1) in all years, but the trend reversed with 100 kg N ha(-1) in 2013 and 2015. Crop yield maximized at 100 kg N ha(-1), but NUE declined linearly with increased N fertilization rate in all crop rotations and years. As N fertilization rate increased, N fertilizer-scaled N2O flux decreased, but NUE-scaled N 2 O flux increased non-linearly in all years, regardless of crop rotations. The yield-scaled N 2 O flux decreased from 0 to 50 kg N ha -1 and then increased with increased N fertilization rate. Because of non-significant difference of N 2 O fluxes between 50 and 100 kg N ha(-1), but increased crop yield, N 2 O emissions can be minimized while dryland crop yields and NUE can be optimized with 100 kg N ha -1 , regardless of crop rotations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Modeling of U.S. Agricultural Soil Emissions of Reactive Nitrogen and Associated Impacts on Air Pollution, Health, and Climate

Agricultural soils are leading sources of reactive nitrogen (Nr) species including nitrogen oxides (NO x ), ammonia (NH 3 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Here, the propensity of NO x and NH 3 to generate ozone and fine particulate matter (PM) and associated impacts on health are highly variable, whereas the climate impacts of long-lived N 2 O are independent of emission timing and location. However, these impacts have rarely been compared on a spatially-resolved, monetized basis. In this study, we update the nitrogen scheme in an agroecosystem model to simulate the agricultural emissions of Nr from across the United States. We then apply a reduced-form air pollution health effects model to assess air quality impacts from NO x and NH 3 and a social cost of N 2 O to assess the climate impacts. Assuming an $\$$8.2 million Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and a $\$$13,100/ton social cost of N 2 O, the air quality impacts are a factor of ~7 to 15 times as large as the climate impacts in heavily populated coastal regions, whereas the ratios are closer to 2.5 in sparsely populated regions. Our results show that air pollution, health, and climate should be considered jointly in future assessments of how farming practices affect Nr emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CRN Modeling of Ammonia RQL Combustion using a Partially-Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative to hydrogen with high energy density and favorable storage and transport characteristics. However low flammability and a propensity for high nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions make direct utilization challenging. Recently, two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in achieving low NOx emissions with ammonia. In this approach, the rich stage serves to oxidize a portion of the fuel, while thermally decomposing as much of the remaining ammonia as possible, generating hydrogen. In the second (lean) stage, air is rapidly introduced, burning out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Two-stage RQL combustion of ammonia has been investigated in the open literature both experimentally and numerically. In general, idealized chemical reactor network (CRN) models predict NOx concentrations below that of 2D/3D computational fluid dynamics models and experiments. The primary drivers of these discrepancies may be largely attributed to finite rate mixing non-adiabatic operation. The typical CRN model is comprised of a perfectly-stirred-reactor (PSR), followed by a plug-flow-reactor (PFR), meant to represent the flame, and post-flame zones, respectively. In the two-stage RQL approach two PSR-PFR networks are arranged sequentially, corresponding to the rich and lean stages, with secondary air injection in between. In the authors’ past work, this arrangement has demonstrated the significant sensitivity of exit NOx to the rich stage equivalence ratio, while the amount of secondary air injection was shown to be less critical. In this paper, the CRN model is extended to (1) include the impacts of heat loss and (2) utilize a partially-stirred-reactor (PaSR) approach to study the impacts of mixing on emissions performance. Varying amounts of heat loss are applied to the rich relaxation zone to understand emissions performance and changes to optimization of equivalence ratio and residence time. Premixed and non-premixed configurations are considered in the rich stage PaSR, with varying degrees of mixing intensity to study the interaction between mixing, transport, and kinetic timescales. Critically, the impact of mixing between hot products and secondary air injection is studied to understand practical injector needs. Results show unburnt ammonia leaving the rich stage as a primary contributor to NOx emissions – driven both by increased heat loss and reduced mixing rates. Furthermore, heat losses have shown to create conditions which are conducive to increased N2O formation in the lean stage. The results of this study will be considered in the context of developing optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia..

advanced gas turbines↗

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗

Life-Cycle Emissions and Human Health Implications of Multi-Input, Multi-Output Biorefineries

To meaningfully broaden the supply of fuels for the transportation sector, biofuel production must be scaled up and this requires a wider array of biomass feedstocks, including agricultural residues and organic waste. Rather than pursuing conversion of lignocellulosic biomass to fuels and anaerobic digestion of wastes as separate pathways, there are economic and environmental advantages associated with integrating these processes in a single facility. However, existing research rarely goes beyond carbon footprints in quantifying the effects of such a shift in bioenergy production. In addition to CO2, CH4, and N2O, this study explores the life-cycle air pollution (NH3, volatile organic compounds, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5), marine eutrophication, acidification, and local external cost implications of biorefineries capable of taking in crop residues, food waste, and manure to produce liquid fuel, electricity, and/or other options such as renewable natural gas (RNG), hydrogen, bioplastics, and protein-rich livestock feed. Relative to a single-input, single-output baseline, biorefineries integrated with organic waste codigestion to coproduce electricity or RNG can reduce life-cycle CO2-equivalent emissions by 84-149%, and the monetized external impacts across all scenarios range from $1.07/gallon to -$0.75/gallon ethanol.

Air pollution↗