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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large-Scale Meteorology Over the Western North Atlantic From 2003 to 2020

Here, a continuous decrease in aerosols over the Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on a decadal timescale provides a long-term benchmark to evaluate how various natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO serves as a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds more variable than those in marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes established by the Gulf Stream and the semi-permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite-retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large-scale meteorology related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find a reduction in low-cloud optical thickness, accompanied by fewer and larger cloud droplets, yet observe no significant changes in low-cloud fraction and liquid water path. Despite the reduction in low-cloud optical thickness together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the trends of surface shortwave irradiance, also known as surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially related to concomitant changes found in large-scale meteorology associated with NAO—Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high-level cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns of decadal meteorological variability introduce complexities in the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO, thereby complicating the isolation and examination of aerosol-cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Recent Increase in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over Florida's Gulf Coast

Unlike Florida's Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast of Florida has seen heightened tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent decades with several destructive landfalls. Here, we attempt to understand this regional contrast using a suite of observations for the period 1979–2024. First, we demonstrate that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can explain ~23% of the interannual variability in landfalls over the Gulf Coast, the variance explained by them for the Atlantic Coast is statistically insignificant. Next, we show that this striking difference may be attributed to the regional patterns of wind shear, steering flow and air-sea thermodynamic state excited by those modes of variability. The differential control exerted by ENSO, AMO, and NAO on landfalling Florida TCs, in combination with decadal trends in those modes, is likely responsible for the observed increases in landfalls over Florida's Gulf Coast.

Florida↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America

Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD), with particular focus on their roles in shaping anomalous weather across North America. Our investigation reveals a consistent influence of the NAWD over seven decades, contrasting with fluctuating impacts from PNA and minor impacts from NAO. In particular, an emergent negative correlation between the NAWD and PNA, signaling a shifted phase of teleconnection patterns, is identified. Such a relationship change is traced to enhanced upper-level ridges across western North America, reflecting a reinforced winter stationary wave. Through attribution analysis, we identify greenhouse gas emissions as a probable driver for the northward drift of the Asia-Pacific jet core, which, aided by orographic lifting over the Alaskan Range, subsequently amplifies the winter stationary wave across western North America. This work emphasizes the pronounced effect of human-induced global warming on the structure and teleconnection of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing vital perspectives on the dynamics of current climate trends.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. In our study the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. Finally, for ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inhibition of Alkali Metal Reduction of 1-Adamantanol by London Dispersion Effects

Here, a series of alkali metal 1-adamantoxide (OAd 1 ) complexes of formula [M(OAd 1 )(HOAd 1 ) 2 ], where M=Li, Na or K, were synthesised by reduction of 1-adamantanol with excess of the alkali metal. The syntheses indicated that only one out of every three HOAd 1 molecules was reduced. An X-ray diffraction study of the sodium derivative shows that the complex features two unreduced HOAd 1 donors as well as the reduced alkoxide (OAd 1 ), with the Ad 1 fragments clustered together on the same side of the NaO 3 plane, contrary to steric considerations. This is the first example of an alkali metal reduction of an alcohol that is inhibited from completion due to the formation of the [M(OAd 1 )(HOAd 1 ) 2 ] complexes, stabilized by London dispersion effects. NMR spectroscopic studies revealed similar structures for the lithium and potassium derivatives. Computational analyses indicate that decisive London dispersion effects in the molecular structure are a consequence of the many C–H•••H–C interactions between the OAd 1 groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

TiO x -supported Na-Mn-W oxides for the oxidative coupling of methane

Supported Na-Mn-W oxides are among the most studied catalysts for the oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) because of their superior thermal stability and relatively high C 2+ product yields. However, because of the structural complexity, the roles of each component in these catalysts have been controversial. In this work, WO x and MnO x sites were supported on titanate nanowires and employed in OCM studies. Compared to the commonly studied silica support, which is subject to severe restructuring due to the Na-induced crystallization, titanate support not only serves as a reservoir for alkali metals (e.g., Na), but also stabilizes isolated MnO x species. The catalytic performance of the titanate-based catalyst is similar to that of reference catalyst, MnO x /Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 , with a synergistic effect between MnO x and WO x sites. Further, advanced electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, infrared spectroscopy, and X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy suggest that the basic NaO x and MnO x species have strong interactions with the acidic WO x and TiO x species, which might contribute to the high selectivity toward C 2+ products and suppressed CO x formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

An integrated in-situ coordination strategy enabling high-performance layered cathodes for sodium-ion batteries

O3-type layered transition metal oxide cathodes hold tremendous potential in sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) due to their low cost and high energy density. However, the structure instability associated with detrimental phase transitions and severe interface parasitic reactions exacerbate the material's electrochemical performance degradation. Herein, we develop an integrated in-situ coordination strategy via heteroatomic modulation inducing coherent epitaxial layer to collaboratively enhance the overall framework robustness from surface to bulk. The theoretical calculation and multiple in/ex-situ characterizations demonstrate the charge density around oxygen is redistributed, which promotes the electron localization, thus widening the NaO 2 lattice space and accelerating the Na + transport dynamics. Furthermore, the formed strengthened oxygen bond energy effectively distributes the long-range coordination of Mn 3+ O 6 octahedron, thereby alleviating Jahn-Teller distortion and local stress. Importantly, the in-situ formed conformal buffer layer dramatically relieves the adverse interface side reactions, facilitating the construction of robust cathode-electrolyte interface, which ameliorate the whole structure stability of designed materials. Consequently, the optimized NFMZ@NZO-1.0 exhibits the excellent cycling stability with 80.2% capacity retention after 300 cycles at 1C, and delivers a high discharge capacity of 107.1 mAh g −1 at 10C. In conclusion, this distinctive coupling strategy provides valuable insights for developing high-performance layered cathode materials in SIBs.

Coherent epitaxial layer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding geopolymer binder-aggregate interfacial characteristics at molecular level

The interfacial characteristics of geopolymer binder to aggregate composites are poorly understood, especially at molecular level. Herein, molecular models are developed to study, for the first time, the geopolymer-aggregate interface. Chemically, various forms of interfacial bonding are characterized, including Al-O-Si bonding through condensation reactions, NaO and H-bonding. An atomic-level interfacial transition zone (ITZ) is identified, attributed to the concentration of –OH groups. Increasing the Si/Al ratio of geopolymer is found to decrease the ITZ density, but have limited effect on the ITZ width. A heterogeneous diffusion characteristic occurs in geopolymer, due to the weak interfacial interaction. Mechanically, lowering the Si/Al ratio promotes the interfacial strength due to the stronger interfacial interaction and higher cross-linking degree in geopolymer. Under loading the interfacial fracture undergoes three stages: crack propagation, chain bridging (including aluminosilicate and ionic bridging) and breakage. The above atomic-level findings may facilitate a better design of geopolymer concrete in engineering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A chiral alkali metal capped Ni 4 cubane complex: Synthesis, structure, magnetic and catalytic bromination studies

A new chiral NaO 2 Ni 4 O 2 N 2 cluster has been developed with a distorted capped cubane-type structure. The structure was determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The tetradentate Schiff-base ligand was synthesized by the condensation of o-vanillin and $\textit{D}$-(-)–threo-2-amino-1-(4-nitrophenyl)-1,3-propanediol. X-ray structure reveals that the complex possesses a Ni 4 cubane cluster where sodium ion is anchored on the face of the cubane structure. Continuous shape measurement studies revealed that all the Ni centres are in distorted octahedral geometry and sodium ion adopts the spherical square pyramidal geometry. Further structural exploration reveals that the complex shows local distortions of the coordination geometries at each metal site, and these distortions govern the magnetic anisotropy associated with each Ni II ion. For the present case, an elongation ($d_{str}$ > 0) of the octahedral coordination sphere results in a local easy-plane anisotropy, with a positive $D_{Ni(II)}$ parameter. Temperature dependant magnetization measurements showed a predominant ferromagnetic interaction amongst the four Ni centres. This complex is also catalytically active towards bromination of aromatic phenolic compounds. Initial catalytic activity was verified with the conversion of phenol red to bromophenol blue. Different phenolic substances show good conversion to their corresponding bromo derivatives. The complex showed good catalytic activity towards bromination of aromatic phenolic compounds, offering up to 99% conversion with 100% selectively to their corresponding bromo derivatives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultrathin silicon oxide prepared by in-line plasma-assisted N 2 O oxidation (PANO) and the application for n-type polysilicon passivated contact

We develop a plasma-assisted nitrous-oxide (N 2 O) gas oxidation (PANO) method to prepare the ultrathin silicon oxide (SiO x ) for polysilicon (poly-Si) passivated contact. The effects of preparation conditions, including the substrate temperature, processing time, and plasma power, are studied. Afterwards, we integrate the PANO SiO x into the polysilicon passivated contact and optimize the passivation and contact performances. Excellent surface passivation with the n-type poly-Si and PANO SiO x on the n-type c-Si wafer is achieved by 880 °C annealing, which shows competitive passivation quality to the one with NASO SiO x . Champion implied open-circuit voltage (iV oc ) and single-sided recombination saturated current (J 0 ) reach 730 mV and 4.3 fA/cm 2 after crystallization; and they are further improved to 747 mV and 2.0 fA/cm 2 (3 × 10 15 cm -3 ) after subsequent AlO x /SiN x hydrogenation. Using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), we find that the thickness of PANO SiO x ranges 1.1–2.4 nm and the controlled nitric acid oxidized SiO x (NAOS) ranges 1.3–1.8 nm. The contact resistivity (ρ c ) is typically <10 mΩ cm 2 with the annealing temperature of >820 °C. Also, the crystallinity, phosphorous in-diffusion profile, and current-leaking density of the passivated contacts are investigated. In general, the PANO SiO x and in-situ doping amorphous silicon precursor can be fabricated in one PECVD system without additional equipment or transfer procedures, which is favorable for the high-efficiency, low-cost industrial manufacture.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deciphering the Mechanistic Role of Individual Oxide Phases and Their Combinations in Supported Mn–Na 2 WO 4 Catalysts for Oxidative Coupling of Methane

Oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) is an attractive direct route for upgrading methane to valuable chemicals. In this study, Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) and steady state experiments are conducted to understand the role of individual oxide phases and their combinations in supported Mn-Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 catalysts for OCM. The results from TAP transient kinetic studies indicate that Mn plays an important role in promoting gas phase oxygen activation, while NaO x /SiO 2 and WO x /SiO 2 are relatively inert towards gas phase oxygen and methane activation. However, the supported catalyst combining Na and W in the form Na 2 WO 4 show enhanced gas phase oxygen activation exhibiting a much lower oxygen activation energy (148 kJ/mol) and enhanced activity toward methane activation as compared to the individual supported oxide catalysts. Addition of Mn to Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 further decreases the oxygen activation energy by 40 kJ/mol. Moreover, methane activation is also enhanced with CH 3 as the main intermediate but, with increasing Mn content, more CH 2 intermediates are observed. Different forms of oxygen (both dioxygen and atomic) are detected on the catalyst surface using isotopic pump/probe pulsing and their distribution is found to depend on the catalyst composition. An optimal Mn content in the Na 2 WO 4 /SiO 2 catalyst system is needed to enhance the amount of dioxide surface species (e.g., superoxide 16 O 2 - or peroxide 16 O 2 2- ) associated with the Na 2 WO 4 leading to high C 2 selectivity for OCM. When the Mn content is too high, the larger MnOx domains are shown to contribute to the formation of higher concertation of monoxide surface species that lead to nonselective OCM pathways. This insight from transient kinetic characterization using TAP combined with conventional steady state studies, provides a deeper understanding of the role of individual oxide phases and their combination on supported catalysts toward the formation of intermediate surface species and their impact on the OCM reaction mechanism. This knowledge is critical toward designing superior catalyst formulations for OCM.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revealing High Na-Content P2-Type Layered Oxides as Advanced Sodium-Ion Cathodes

Layered Na-based oxides with the general composition of Na x TMO 2 (TM: transition metal) have attracted significant attention for their high compositional diversity that provides tunable electrochemical performance for electrodes in sodium-ion batteries. The various compositions bring forward complex structural chemistry that is decisive for the layered stacking structure, Na-ion conductivity, and the redox activity, potentially promising new avenues in functional material properties. In this work, we have explored the maximum Na content in P2-type layered oxides and discovered that the high-content Na in the host enhances the structural stability; moreover, it promotes the oxidation of low-valent cations to their high oxidation states (in this case Ni 2+ ). This can be rationalized by the increased hybridization of the O(2p)-TM(3d-e g *) states, affecting both the local TM environment as well as the interactions between the NaO 2 and TMO 2 layers. These properties are highly beneficial for the Na storage capabilities as required for cathode materials in sodium-ion batteries. It leads to excellent Na-ion mobility, a large storage capacity (>100 mAh g –1 between 2.0-4.0 V), yet preventing the detrimental sliding of the TMO 2 layers (P2–O2 structural transition), as reflected by the ultralong cycle life (3000 (dis)charge cycles demonstrated). These findings expand the horizons of high Na-content P2-type materials, providing new insights of the electronic and structural chemistry for advanced cathode materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

Abstract Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction

Floods and heavy precipitation have disruptive impacts worldwide, but their historical variability remains only partially understood at the global scale. This article aims at reducing this knowledge gap by jointly analyzing seasonal maxima of streamflow and precipitation at more than 3,000 stations over a 100‐year period. The analysis is based on Hidden Climate Indices (HCIs). Like standard climate indices (e.g., Nino 3.4, NAO), HCIs are used as covariates explaining the temporal variability of data, but unlike them, HCIs are estimated from the data. In this work, a distinction is made between common HCIs, that affect both heavy precipitation and floods, and specific HCIs, that exclusively affect one or the other. Overall, HCIs do not show noticeable autocorrelation, but some are affected by noticeable trends. In particular, strong and wide‐ranging trends are identified in precipitation‐specific HCIs, while trends affecting flood‐specific HCIs are weaker and have more localized effects. A probabilistic model is then derived to link HCIs and large‐scale atmospheric variables (pressure, wind, temperature) and to reconstruct HCIs since 1836 using the 20CRv3 reanalysis. In turn this allows estimating the probability of occurrence of floods and heavy precipitation at the global scale. This 180‐year reconstruction highlights flood hot‐spots and hot‐moments in the distant past, well before the establishment of perennial monitoring networks. Finally, the approach presented in this study is generic and paves the way for an improved characterization of historical variability by making a better use of long but highly irregular station data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗