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NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Evaluation of GEOS-5 Aerosol and CO Distributions Forecast During TC4

The NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) Mission was based out San Jose, Costa Rica during July and August 2007. During TC4 the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) ran twice-daily 0.5 x 0.666 global 5-day forecasts of the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-5). This implementation of GEOS-5 contained an aerosol and carbon monoxide (CO) model to provide online forecast tropospheric distributions of dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols and CO for both the planning of flights and for science. Here we provide a description of the aerosol and CO modeling system and give a preliminary evaluation of forecast tracer distributions. Our comparisons to satellite observations of aerosol and CO show qualitatively similar simulated distributions of tracers to those observed. During TC4 copious amounts of dust were observed in the Caribbean. The model generally reproduced the observations of the timing of dust events and the vertical structure in the lower atmosphere. However, the model simulations had too much aerosol at high altitudes relative to airborne Cloud Physics Lidar observations. The results were similar for biomass burning aerosol and CO tracers, where the model showed higher simulated concentrations of these tracers at aircraft flight altitude than observations.

Colarco, Peter R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation and Assimilation of Cloud Cleared Radiances for AIRS in GEOS-5

The use of clear (cloud-free) channels for AIRS in GEOS-5 had shown positive impact on forecast skills in both hemispheres. However, improvements in forecast skills due to the assimilation of AIRS data are less impressive since the number of assimilated channels from AIRS is much larger than that from other Infrared sounders such as HIRS-3 onboard NOAA 15-17 satellites. This limitation of AIRS radiance data to improve the forecast skill is mainly due to the fact that channels capable of peaking below clouds are not used in the assimilation and yet those have highest vertical resolving capability of AIRS instrument are concentrated in the lower troposphere. On average, the percentage of AIRS footprints completely clear for all channels is less than 10%. The percentage of assimilated AIRS channel radiances however ranges from 100% for channels peaking in the upper stratosphere, above the cloud, to no more that 5% in the lower atmosphere due to cloud contamination. Our current ability to model and predict clouds accurately in global model, and to fully characterize and parameterize optical properties of cloud particles in radiative transfer model are the two major obstacles prohibiting us to use cloudy radiance directly in the assimilation. To further improve forecast skill using AIRS data, we ought to use the channels peaking below the clouds in the troposphere, which can be accomplished by assimilating cloud-cleared radiance. The cloud-cleared radiance data for AIRS used in this study were obtained from optimal cloud clearing procedures developed by researchers at CIMSS of University of Wisconsin at Madison to retrieve clear column radiances for all AIRS channels by collocating multi-band MODIS IR clear radiance observations with the AIRS cloudy radiances on a single footprint basis. Two adjacent AIRS cloudy footprints are used to retrieve one AIRS cloud-cleared radiance spectrum and no background information (first guess) is needed. To assimilate the cloud-cleared radiance data, the errors of the cloud-cleared radiances need to be addressed. The details of convolving AIRS radiances with MODIS spectral response function and comparison with MODIS-measured cloud-free radiance will be presented. The range of errors of cloud-cleared radiances for AIRS using collocated MODIS clear and near-by AIRS clear data will be shown. The NASA. global data assimilation model, GEOS-5, is used to evaluate and assimilate the cloud-cleared radiance for AIRS. The residues between the cloud-cleared brightness temperature and the simulated brightness temperature from background (i.e., OMFs) will be investigated. The quality control procedures will be documented based on error estimation and the OMFs. Finally, the impacts between assimilation of clear channel radiances and cloud-cleared radiances will be addressed.

Liu, Hui-chun↗
NASA NTRS2007

Data Registration, Match, and Model Component Coupling

A coupling toolkit has been developed to reduce the complexity of model component coupling, in particular among hierarchical model components. The toolkit provides the services of data registration, data matching, data filtering, and model component coupling. In addition, it can generate diagrams to reveal the "producer"-to-"consumer" relations among the components. We have tested this toolkit with the operational NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5), which is built on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and consists of several-level Earth system components.

Zhou, Shujia↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, and Climate: NASA's Global Cloud-Scale Simulations and New Observations that Characterize the Lifecycle of Hurricanes

One of the primary interests of Global Change research is the impact of climate changes and climate variability on extreme weather events, such as intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Atmospheric climate models run at resolutions of global weather models have been used to study the impact of climate variability, as seen in sea surface temperatures, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) in ensembles run at 50 km resolution has been able to reproduce the interannual variations of tropical cyclone frequency seen in nature. This, and other global models, have found it much more difficult to reproduce the interannual changes in intensity, a result that reflects the inability of the models to simulate the intensities of the most extreme storms. Better representation of the structures of cyclones requires much higher resolution models. Such improved representation is also fundamental to making best use of satellite observations. In collaboration with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GEOS-5 now has the capability of running at much higher resolution to better represent cloud-scale resolutions. Global simulations at cloud-permitting resolutions (10- to 3.5-km) allows for the development of realistic tropical cyclones from tropical storm 119 km/hr winds) to category 5 (>249km1hr winds) intensities. GEOS-5 has produced realistic rain-band and eye-wall structures in tropical cyclones that can be directly analyzed against satellite observations. For the first time a global climate model is capable of representing realistic intensity and track variability on a seasonal scale across basins. GEOS-5 is also used in assimilation mode to test the impact of NASA's observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. One such test, for tropical cyclone Nargis in the Indian Ocean in May 2008, showed that observations from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) on Aqua substantially reduced forecast track errors. Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. SA is also bringing several state of the art instruments in recent field campaigns to peer under the clouds and study the inner workings of the tropical storms. With the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, a NASA Earth science field experiment in 2010 that includes the Global Hawk Unmanned Airborne System (UAS) configured with a suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments that are observing and characterizing the lifecycle of hurricanes, we expect significant improvement in our understanding of the track and intensification processes with the assimilation of the satellite and field campaign observations of meteorological parameters in the numerical prediction models.

Putman, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Five-Year (2004-2009)Observations of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor and Cloud Ice from MLS and Comparisons with GEOS-5 Analyses

This paper gives an overview of August 2004 through July 2009 upper tropospheric (UT) water vapor (H2O) and ice water content (IWC) from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and comparisons with outputs from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. Both MLS and GEOS-5 show that high values of H2O and IWC at 215 to 147 hPa are associated with areas of deep convection. They exhibit good (within approximately 15%) agreement in IWC at these altitudes, but GEOS-5 H2O is approximately 50% (215 hPa) to approximately 30% (147 hPa) larger than MLS, possibility due to its higher temperatures at these altitudes. GOES-5 produces a weaker intertropical convergence zone than MLS, while a seasonally-migrating band of tropical deep convection is clearly evident in both the MLS and GEOS-5 UT H2O and IWC. MLS and GEOS-5 both show spatial anti-correlation between IWC and H2O at 100 hPa, where less H2O is associated with low temperatures in regions of tropical convection. At 100 hPa, GEOS-5 produces 50% less IWC and 15% less H2O in the tropics, and approximately 20% more H2O in the extra-tropics, than does MLS. Behavior of the 100 hPa H2O, which exhibits a quasi-biennial oscillation, appears consistent with it being controlled by temperature. The seasonal cycle in the vertical transport of tropical mean H2O from approximately 147 hPa to approximately 10 hPa appears much stronger in MLS than in GEOS-5. The UT IWC and H2O interannual variations, from both MLS and GEOS-5, show clear imprints of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Jiang, Jonathan H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Influence of the 2006 Indonesian Biomass Burning Aerosols on Tropical Dynamics Studied with the GEOS-5 AGCM

The direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols produced by Indonesian biomass burning (BB) during August November 2006 on tropical dynamics have been examined using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM includes CO, which is transported by resolved and sub-grid processes and subject to a linearized chemical loss rate. Simulations were driven by two sets of aerosol forcing fields calculated offline, one that included Indonesian BB aerosol emissions and one that did not. In order to separate the influence of the aerosols from internal model variability, the means of two ten-member ensembles were compared. Diabatic heating from BB aerosols increased temperatures over Indonesia between 150 and 400 hPa. The higher temperatures resulted in strong increases in upward grid-scale vertical motion, which increased water vapor and CO over Indonesia. In October, the largest increases in water vapor were found in the mid-troposphere (~25%) while the largest increases in CO occurred just below the tropopause (80 ppbv or ~50%). Diabatic heating from the Indonesian BB aerosols caused CO to increase by 9% throughout the tropical tropopause layer in November and 5% in the lower stratosphere in December. The results demonstrate that aerosol heating plays an important role in the transport of BB pollution and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Changes in vertical motion and cloudiness induced by aerosol heating can also alter the transport and phase of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere.

Ott, Lesley↗
NASA NTRS2009

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes During SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

This article investigates the role of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a nondeveloping and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African. Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because they both interact heavily with Saharan air. A glottal data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System. version 5 (GEOS-5), is being run to produce a set of high-9 uality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with additional satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same authors, the duality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 five-day high-resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results indicate that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses, even at great distances from their source over the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole in the vertiieat (warm above, cool below) is present in the nondeveloping case. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spoctroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites shows that aerosol optical thickness, indicative of more dust as opposed to other factors, is higher in the nondeveloping case. Altogether, results suggest that the radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 km can capture the large-scale transport and the tine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression that has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. Thcse effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions, therefore global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold necessary to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS2007

Validation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Temperature and Geopotential Height Measurements

This paper describes the retrievals algorithm used to determine temperature and height from radiance measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder on EOS Aura. MLS is a "limbscanning" instrument, meaning that it views the atmosphere along paths that do not intersect the surface - it actually looks forwards from the Aura satellite. This means that the temperature retrievals are for a "profile" of the atmosphere somewhat ahead of the satellite. Because of the need to view a finite sample of the atmosphere, the sample spans a box about 1.5km deep and several tens of kilometers in width; the optical characteristics of the atmosphere mean that the sample is representative of a tube about 200-300km long in the direction of view. The retrievals use temperature analyses from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system as a priori states. The temperature retrievals are somewhat deperrde~zt on these a priori states, especially in the lower stratosphere. An important part of the validation of any new dataset involves comparison with other, independent datasets. A large part of this study is concerned with such comparisons, using a number of independent space-based measurements obtained using different techniques, and with meteorological analyses. The MLS temperature data are shown to have biases that vary with height, but also depend on the validation dataset. MLS data are apparently biased slightly cold relative to correlative data in the upper troposphere and slightly warm in the middle stratosphere. A warm MLS bias in the upper stratosphere may be due to a cold bias in GEOS-5 temperatures.

Schwartz, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Examination of Observation Impacts derived from OSEs and Adjoint Models

With the adjoint of a data assimilation system, the impact of any or all assimilated observations on measures of forecast skill can be estimated accurately and efficiently. The approach allows aggregation of results in terms of individual data types, channels or locations, all computed simultaneously. In this study, adjoint-based estimates of observation impact are compared with results from standard observing system experiments (OSEs) in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) GEOS-5 system. The two approaches are shown to provide unique, but complimentary, information. Used together, they reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed. Understanding these dependencies poses a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems.

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2010

Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation. Section 3 presents an overall precipitation improvement with AIRS assimilation during a 37-day case study period, and Section 4 focuses on a single case study to further investigate the meteorological impact of AIRS profiles on synoptic scale models. Finally, Section 5 provides a summary of the paper.

Chou, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Demonstration of Effects on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution Global Model from Variation in Cumulus Convection Parameterization

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models that have been developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to support NASA's earth science research in data analysis, observing system modeling and design, climate and weather prediction, and basic research. The work presented used GEOS-5 with 0.25o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels (up to 0.01 hP) resolving both the troposphere and stratosphere, with closer packing of the levels close to the surface. The model includes explicit (grid-scale) moist physics, as well as convective parameterization schemes. Results will be presented that will demonstrate strong dependence in the results of modeling of a strong hurricane on the type of convective parameterization scheme used. The previous standard (default) option in the model was the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme, which uses a quasi-equilibrium closure. In the cases shown, this scheme does not permit the efficient development of a strong storm in comparison with observations. When this scheme is replaced by a modified version of the Kain-Fritsch scheme, which was originally developed for use on grids with intervals of order 25 km such as the present one, the storm is able to develop to a much greater extent, closer to that of reality. Details of the two cases will be shown in order to elucidate the differences in the two modeled storms.

Miller, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessment of Aerosol Distributions from GEOS-5 Using the CALIPSO Feature Mask

A-train sensors such as MODIS, MISR, and CALIPSO are used to determine aerosol properties, and in the process a means of estimating aerosol type (e.g. smoke vs. dust). Correct classification of aerosol type is important for climate assessment, air quality applications, and for comparisons and analysis with aerosol transport models. The Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) satellite mission proposed in the NRC Decadal Survey describes a next generation aerosol and cloud suite similar to the current A-train, including a lidar. The future ACE lidar must be able to determine aerosol type effectively in conjunction with modeling activities to achieve ACE objectives. Here we examine the current capabilities of CALIPSO and the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-5), to place future ACE needs in context. The CALIPSO level 2 feature mask includes vertical profiles of aerosol layers classified by type. GEOS-5 provides global 3D aerosol mass for sulfate, sea salt, dust, and black and organic carbon. A GEOS aerosol scene classification algorithm has been developed to provide estimates of aerosol mixtures and extinction profiles along the CALIPSO orbit track. In previous work, initial comparisons between GEOS-5 derived aerosol mixtures and CALIPSO derived aerosol types were presented for July 2007. In general, the results showed that model and lidar derived aerosol types did not agree well in the boundary layer. Agreement was poor over Europe, where CALIPSO indicated the presence of dust and pollution mixtures yet GEOS-5 was dominated by pollution with little dust. Over the ocean in the tropics, the model appeared to contain less sea salt than detected by CALIPSO, yet at high latitudes the situation was reserved. Agreement between CALIPSO and GEOS-5, aerosol types improved above the boundary layer, primarily in dust and smoke dominated regions. At higher altitudes (> 5 km), the model contained aerosol layers not detected by CALIPSO. Here we present new results for a full year study using the new Version 3 CALIPSO data and most recent GEOS-5 model results.

Welton, Ellsworth↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRS2008

The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System-Documentation of Versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0

This report documents the GEOS-5 global atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), including the versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0, which have been implemented in products distributed for use by various NASA instrument team algorithms and ultimately for the Modem Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The DAS is the integration of the GEOS-5 atmospheric model with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis, a joint analysis system developed by the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the NASA/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The primary performance drivers for the GEOS DAS are temperature and moisture fields suitable for the EOS instrument teams, wind fields for the transport studies of the stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry communities, and climate-quality analyses to support studies of the hydrological cycle through MERRA. The GEOS-5 atmospheric model has been approved for open source release and is available from: http://opensource.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/GEOS-5/GEOS-5.php.

M. M. Rienecker↗
NASA NTRS2008

Benchmark Comparison of Dual- and Quad-Core Processor Linux Clusters with Two Global Climate Modeling Workloads

This viewgraph presentation details the science and systems environments that NASA High End computing program serves. Included is a discussion of the workload that is involved in the processing for the Global Climate Modeling. The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models integrated using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The GEOS-5 system was used for the Benchmark tests, and the results of the tests are shown and discussed. Tests were also run for the Cubed Sphere system, results for these test are also shown.

McGalliard, James↗
NASA NTRS2008

Accurate Satellite-Derived Estimates of Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing

Estimates of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenically-produced tropospheric O3 are derived primarily from models. Here, we use tropospheric ozone and cloud data from several instruments in the A-train constellation of satellites as well as information from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System to accurately estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing from tropospheric O3 for January and July 2005. We improve upon previous estimates of tropospheric ozone mixing ratios from a residual approach using the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) by incorporating cloud pressure information from OMI. Since we cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources with the satellite data, our estimates reflect the total forcing due to tropospheric O3. We focus specifically on the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud effect on both the shortand long-wave radiative forcing. The estimates presented here can be used to validate present day O3 radiative forcing produced by models.

Joiner, Joanna↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reply [to: Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System]

This article is a Reply to a Comment by Scott Braun on a previously published article by O. Reale, K.-M. Lau, and E. Brin: "Atlantic tropical cyclogenetic processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 global data assimilation and forecast system", by Reale, Lau and Brin, hereafter referred to as RA09. RA09 investigated the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (MAMMA). The wave was chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. Results showed: a) very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara; b) a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) in the non-developing case. RA09A suggested that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis, and also indicated that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL Braun (2010) questions those results attributing the wave dissipation to midlatitude air. The core discussion is on a dry filament preceding the wave, on the presence of dust, and on the origin of the air contained in this dry filament. In the 'Reply', higher resolution analyses than the ones used by Braun, taken at almost coincident times with Aqua and Terra passes, are shown, to emphasize how the channel of dry air associated with W1 is indeed rich in dust. Backtrajectories on a higher resolution grid are also performed, leading to results drastically different from Braun (2010), and in particularly showing that there is a clear contribution of Saharan air. Finally, the 'Reply' presents evidence on that analyses at a horizontal resolution of one degree are inadequate to investigate such feature.

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS2008

NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA): Early Results and Future Directions

This talk will review the status and progress of the NASA/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) atmospheric global reanalysis project called the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). An overview of NASA's emerging capabilities for assimilating a variety of other Earth Science observations of the land, ocean, and atmospheric constituents will also be presented. MERRA supports NASA Earth science by synthesizing the current suite of research satellite observations in a climate data context (covering the period 1979-present), and by providing the science and applications communities with of a broad range of weather and climate data with an emphasis on improved estimates of the hydrological cycle. MERRA is based on a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-5), that includes the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)-based GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model and the new NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) unified grid-point statistical interpolation (GST) analysis scheme developed as a collaborative effort between NCEP and the GMAO. In addition to MERRA, the GMAO is developing new capabilities in aerosol and constituent assimilation, ocean, ocean biology, and land surface assimilation. This includes the development of an assimilation capability for tropospheric air quality monitoring and prediction, the development of a carbon-cycle modeling and assimilation system, and an ocean data assimilation system for use in coupled short-term climate forecasting.

Schubert, Siegfried↗