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Corrigendum to “The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics” published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, 2023

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO 2 injection, seasonality of SO 2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO 2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO 4 ) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO 2 , SO 4 , and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO 2 , which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO 2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of -0.35?W?m-2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8?d), surface SO 2 concentration (up to 59?% decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23?% increase). Emitting SO 2 at height consistently increased SO 2 and SO 4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO 4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO 4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

Ahsan, Hamza [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗

Effective properties of semitransparent radiative cooling materials with spectrally variable properties

Radiative cooling is a promising solid-state, non-vapor-compression technology for passive refrigeration and air conditioning. Although this phenomenon occurs naturally, achieving a significant amount of cooling to make it a technically and economically viable technology requires highly engineered, spectrally selective radiative surfaces. These characteristics make radiative cooling difficult to estimate, particularly when it is integrated with other systems such as photovoltaic panels or building envelopes. The complexity further increases when the substrate also participates in the radiative cooling (along with the radiative coating). Energy estimation is becoming increasingly critical because of the recent focus on the semitransparent radiative coatings that transmit a variety of colors to enhance the aesthetic appeal of the system. In this work, we propose an iterative method to calculate the effective radiative properties, which provides the same net radiative cooling that would be observed using the spectral properties at both the coating and substrate surfaces. Compared to traditional methods that rely on either computationally expensive full spectral analysis or methods for averaging each radiative surface parameter locally, our proposed method focuses on calculating effective properties that provide the same the net cooling effect as a full spectral analysis by accounting the emissivity, absorptivity, and transmissivity collectively, thereby providing an overall estimation error of less than 0.2%. We believe that this study will be beneficial to the engineering communities that employ complex simulation codes and require lumped solar and thermal radiation related parameters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Coupling between radiative flux divergence and turbulence near the surface

Near‐surface turbulent flux and radiation divergence field observations are analysed over a grass‐covered surface located at the Wageningen observatory, the Netherlands. Net radiative flux divergence appears to be a large component of the energy budget near the surface, accounting for a cooling rate of several tens of degrees per day. Long‐wave radiation divergence dominates this radiation divergence flux. We show here that long‐wave flux divergence near the surface is strongly coupled to sensible heat flux, except in high relative humidity (>90%) and foggy conditions. The net long‐wave radiative flux divergence exhibits a sharp gradient within the first 20 m above the surface. This flux divergence is itself strongly coupled to sensible heat flux through adjustments in surface‐layer profiles. Nonetheless, no systematic effect of radiation is witnessed on the turbulent temperature spectrum so that the main effect of near‐surface radiation is on the mean heat budget. As typical flux‐gradient relationships are derived based on observations taken in the near‐surface boundary‐layer region where sharp long‐wave divergence is present, we suspect that those relationships implicitly represent some of the long‐wave divergence term. A modification of Monin–Obukhov Similarity Theory to include the effect of radiative divergence is proposed and discussed. This calls for independent measurements of turbulent fluxes and radiative flux divergence near the surface to re‐derive turbulent flux‐gradient relationships independently of radiative effects.

Gentine, Pierre↗

Orographic Cirrus and Its Radiative Forcing in NCAR CAM6

Cirrus clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiative energy budget, thereby affecting the climate state and climate change. Orographic gravity wave (OGW)-induced sub-grid scale vertical velocity (i.e., cooling rate) is not resolved by large-scale models and its impact on ice formation in cirrus clouds is not well quantified. In this study, one sub-grid scale OGW scheme (e.g., McFarlane) is used in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) to generate vertical velocity variance (σw) for cirrus formation. Results from the default model and simulations with the OGW-induced σw are evaluated against the DOE ARM Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) campaign observations. The OGW based on the McFarlane scheme increases the sub-grid scale σw over mountains compared to the default model and improves the model agreement with the SPARTICUS observations. Larger σ w due to OGWs can trigger more frequent homogeneous nucleation in orographic cirrus and generates a higher number concentration of ice crystals observed during the SPARTICUS campaign. Moreover, our evaluation of the model simulations against satellite observations indicates that the McFarlane scheme generates high in-cloud ice number concentrations (>200 L -1 ) in the upper troposphere over mountains and high plateaus at mid- and high-latitudes of the winter hemisphere as shown in the observations. More ice crystals with smaller sizes absorb more infrared radiation (+0.523 ± 0.125 W m -2 ). The net radiative cloud forcing change at the top of the atmosphere is +0.330 W m -2 due to the orographic cirrus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Fluxes Using Six Meteorological Data-Based Approaches for a Range of Climate and Land Cover Types

Evapotranspiration is the major component of the water cycle, so a correct estimate of this variable is fundamental. The purpose of the present research is to assess the monthly scale accuracy of six meteorological data-based models in the prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) losses by comparing the modelled fluxes with the observed ones from eight sites equipped with eddy covariance stations which differ in terms of vegetation and climate type. Three potential ET methods (Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, and Blaney-Criddle models) and three actual ET models (the Advection-Aridity, the Granger and Gray, and the Antecedent Precipitation Index method) have been proposed. The findings show that the models performances differ from site to site and they depend on the vegetation and climate characteristics. Indeed, they show a wide range of error values ranging from 0.18 to 2.78. It has been not possible to identify a single model able to outperform the others in each biome, but in general, the Advection-Aridity approach seems to be the most accurate, especially when the model calibration in not carried out. It returns very low error values close to 0.38. When the calibration procedure is performed, the most accurate model is the Granger and Gray approach with minimum error of 0.13 but, at the same time, it is the most impacted by this process, and therefore, in a context of data scarcity, it results the less recommended for ET prediction. The performances of the investigated ET approaches have been furthermore tested in case of lack of measured data of soil heat fluxes and net radiation considering using empirical relationships based on meteorological data to derive these variables. Results show that, the use of empirical formulas to derive ET estimates increases the errors up to 200% with the consequent loss of model accuracy.

net radiation↗

Benchmarking a Pronghorn Model of the Natural Convection Shutdown Heat Removal Test Facility Against STAR-CCM+ (Poster)

Summary Verification of Pronghorn’s Net Radiation Transfer via Code-to-Code comparison with STAR-CCM+. Comparison based on Natural Convection Shutdown Heat-Removal Test Facility (NSTF). Near-perfect agreement if conjugate heat transfer inside the riser channels is replaced by fixed temperature. Difference of up to 5K if conjugate heat transfer is modeled (correlation vs. full CFD).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Representing Fine‐Scale Topographic Effects on Surface Radiation Balance in Hyper‐Resolution Land Surface Models

Land surface models are increasingly used to simulate land surface processes at hyper-spatial resolutions (e.g., ∼1 km). As model resolution increases, grid-scale topographic effects on surface radiation fluxes and their interactions between adjacent grids become more pronounced. However, current land surface models routinely neglect the fine-scale topographic effects on surface radiation balance. This study developed physically-based and computationally-efficient parameterizations (fineTOP) that explicitly resolve fine-scale topographic effects on downward shortwave and longwave radiation as well as land surface radiative properties. The newly developed parameterizations were implemented and tested in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Multi-decadal km-resolution ELM simulations over the California Sierra Nevada show that fine-scale topography significantly impacts the surface energy balance and snow processes across seasons. Slope determines the magnitude of topographic effects, while aspect controls their sign. For slopes larger than 30°, topography-induced change in annual surface temperature can be as large as 3.3 K. Regionally, the mean value and standard deviation of topography-induced changes in annual surface temperature are −0.22 ± 0.38 K and +0.25 ± 0.37 K over north-facing and south-facing slopes, respectively. Topography-induced changes in surface radiative properties account for 3.5% ± 13.8% of total topographic effects on annual net radiation. With fineTOP, ELM captures the aspect-dependence of snow cover fraction, snow water equivalent, and land surface temperature found in MODIS satellite observations and a snow reanalysis data set, while the default ELM fails to capture this phenomenon. The enhanced capability to represent fine-scale topographic effects on surface radiation balance can be used to advance understanding of the role of fine-scale topography in land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions over mountainous regions.

Hao, Dalei [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗

Evaluation and improvement of the parameterization of aerosol hygroscopicity in global climate models using in-situ surface measurements (Final Report)

Aerosols are tiny particles suspended on the atmosphere that can interact with incoming solar radiation and affect the Earth radiative budget. They do so by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and these properties vary depending on the aerosol size and chemical composition. Moreover, by taking up water from the surrounding air, hygroscopic aerosol particles will grow in size and change their chemical composition, thus modifying their optical properties (scattering and absorption) and their final impact on radiative forcing calculations. An accurate knowledge of aerosol hygroscopicity is crucial for estimating the net radiative impact of aerosols. We took a three-pronged approach to improve our understanding of aerosol hygroscopicity and how it is implemented in Earth system models. In the first part of our project, we developed a benchmark dataset from existing aerosol hygroscopic growth measurements made by tandem nephelometer humidogram systems. We analyzed, using a standardized methodology, observations from 26 in-situ stations around the globe. Measurement data was collected from multiple data providers, reviewed and harmonized to create a consistent dataset of the scattering enhancement factor due to aerosol water uptake. This dataset is archived in several publicly available databases for use by interested researchers. In the second part of the project, we used the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset to perform a global study on aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol optical properties. Measurements show a global picture of scattering enhancement with larger values for Arctic and marine sites and lower for urban and desert sites. We assessed the RH dependence of aerosol radiative forcing and showed that the overall effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on DARF is an increase in the absolute forcing effect (negative sign) by a factor of up to 4 compared to dry conditions (RH<40%). Finally, we explored using aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and scattering Angstrom exponent (SAE) as possible proxies for aerosol hygroscopicity. SSA showed more promise as a surrogate for the scattering enhancement factor than SAE, but neither was ideal. In the third part of the project we evaluated the output of ten Earth system models (ESMs) against the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset. ESMs utilize various schemes for aerosol hygroscopicity which had not been previously tested against observations on a global scale. We found that ESMs currently overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. Model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are two main factors driving the observed diversity in hygroscopicity simulations among the models. In addition, our study makes several suggestions for modelers, including improving the parameterizations of organic and sea salt aerosol hygroscopicity. Future hygroscopicity model evaluation experiments should include the model data related to particles size which was not available for our study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenging and Improving the Simulation of Mid-Level Mixed-Phase Clouds Over the High-Latitude Southern Ocean

Climate models exhibit major radiative biases over the Southern Ocean owing to a poor representation of mixed-phase clouds. In this study, we used the remote-sensing dataset from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) campaign to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce frontal clouds off Antarctica. It focuses on the modeling of thin mid-level supercooled liquid water layers which precipitate ice. The standard version of WRF produces almost fully glaciated clouds and cannot reproduce cloud top turbulence. Our work demonstrates the importance of adapting the ice nucleation parameterization to the pristine austral atmosphere to reproduce the supercooled liquid layers. Once simulated, droplets significantly impact the cloud radiative effect by increasing downwelling longwave fluxes and decreasing downwelling shortwave fluxes at the surface. The net radiative effect is a warming of snow and ice covered surfaces and a cooling of the ocean. Despite improvements in our simulations, the local turbulent circulation related to cloud-top radiative cooling is not properly reproduced, advocating for the need to develop a parameterization for top-down convection to capture the turbulence-microphysics interplay at cloud top.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative heating rate profiles over the southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 biomass burning seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF1) in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96° S, 14.35° W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign alongside aerosol optical properties from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM), profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Idealized experiments using the RRTM with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single-scattering albedo (SSA) demonstrate that shortwave (SW) heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K d -1 depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA, and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave (LW) cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single-scattering albedo assumptions in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The dominant contribution of Southern Ocean heat uptake to time - evolving radiative feedback in CESM

Radiative feedbacks are found to vary with time in both historical records and future warming projections. Previous studies proposed two factors that determine the variation of radiative feedbacks: (i) the evolution of tropical sea surface warming patterns and (ii) the tropical-extratropical contrast of ocean heat uptake. Our results bridge the two factors by evaluating the remote impact from the extratropical ocean on tropical temperature patterns, accounting for the changes in radiative feedbacks. Based on the Green’s Function approach that quantifies the non-local contributions of regional ocean heat uptake, we show that the net radiative feedback evolution in CESM can be mostly attributed to the heat uptake variations in the Southern Ocean. The enhanced surface warming associated with the weakened heat uptake decades after quadrupling CO2 is not confined over the Southern Ocean, but extends to tropical Southeastern Pacific, which leads to decreasing tropospheric stability and more positive cloud feedbacks.

Lin, Yuan-Jen↗

Assessing Physical Relationships Between Atmospheric State, Fluxes, and Boundary Layer Stability at McMurdo Station, Antarctica

Observations at McMurdo Station, Antarctica from 24 November 2015 through 3 January 2017 were used to characterize the physical relationships between boundary layer stability and atmospheric state and fluxes. The basis of this analysis was self-organizing maps (SOMs), a neural network algorithm, used to identify the range of potential temperature profiles present in the twice-daily radiosonde data during the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) campaign. The SOM identified profiles ranging from strongly stable to weakly stable regimes over the lowest 500 m of the atmosphere. It was found that in the winter (MJJA), moderate and strongly stable regimes occur most frequently (61%), while weakly stable regimes dominate in the summer (DJ, 83.4%). The mechanisms responsible for the dominance of different stability regimes in each season were analyzed to determine why these regimes occur with varying frequency throughout the year. This analysis found that wind speed variations and radiative cooling are responsible for the stability observed in the winter, radiative warming, as well as weaker wind speeds, are responsible for summer weak stability, and stability variations in the transition seasons (FMA, SON) are characterized by a change in sign of net radiation with increasing stability, as wind speed changes little across stability regimes. Low-level jets were observed to occur about 50% of the time below areas of enhanced stability aloft and were observed most frequently in the transition seasons. The boundary layer depth, as determined by the Bulk Richardson number, was found to decrease with increasing stability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tensorized Interior Radiative Heat Transfer for a Scalable and Calibrated Building Energy Simulator

Building energy simulation is a critical tool for developing and testing advanced control strategies, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL), to provide demand flexibility and affordable energy costs. The recently introduced Smart Buildings Control Suite (sbsim) provides a lightweight, scalable, and data-calibrated simulation environment based on a 2D finite-difference model. However, the initial model primarily focused on conductive and convective heat transfer, neglecting the significant impact of long-wave radiative heat exchange between interior surfaces. This paper presents a significant extension to the sbsim framework by incorporating a physically-grounded model for interior radiative heat transfer. Our primary contribution is the development and integration of a fully tensorized radiative heat transfer module, which preserves the computational efficiency and scalability of the original simulator. This was achieved by developing a pipeline for view factor calculation, including an algorithm to identify directly seeing surfaces within complex floor plans, and formulating the net radiation equations for efficient execution on modern hardware accelerators. We validate the numerical accuracy of our tensorized implementation by comparing its results against a traditional iterative approach, demonstrating identical outcomes. This enhancement increases the physical fidelity of sbsim, enabling more accurate training of RL agents for building energy optimization.

Ham, Sang woo↗

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

Abstract Tropical forests are an important part of global water and energy cycles, but the mechanisms that drive seasonality of their land‐atmosphere exchanges have proven challenging to capture in models. Here, we (1) report the seasonality of fluxes of latent heat (LE), sensible heat ( H ), and outgoing short and longwave radiation at four diverse tropical forest sites across Amazonia—along the equator from the Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forests in the eastern Amazon to a forest near Manaus, and from the equatorial zone to the southern forest in Reserva Jaru; (2) investigate how vegetation and climate influence these fluxes; and (3) evaluate land surface model performance by comparing simulations to observations. We found that previously identified failure of models to capture observed dry‐season increases in evapotranspiration (ET) was associated with model overestimations of (1) magnitude and seasonality of Bowen ratios (relative to aseasonal observations in which sensible was only 20%–30% of the latent heat flux) indicating model exaggerated water limitation, (2) canopy emissivity and reflectance (albedo was only 10%–15% of incoming solar radiation, compared to 0.15%–0.22% simulated), and (3) vegetation temperatures (due to underestimation of dry‐season ET and associated cooling). These partially compensating model‐observation discrepancies (e.g., higher temperatures expected from excess Bowen ratios were partially ameliorated by brighter leaves and more interception/evaporation) significantly biased seasonal model estimates of net radiation ( R n ), the key driver of water and energy fluxes (LE ~ 0.6 R n and H ~ 0.15 R n ), though these biases varied among sites and models. A better representation of energy‐related parameters associated with dynamic phenology (e.g., leaf optical properties, canopy interception, and skin temperature) could improve simulations and benchmarking of current vegetation–atmosphere exchange and reduce uncertainty of regional and global biogeochemical models.

Restrepo‐Coupe, Natalia↗