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DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-World Cyber Security Demonstration for Networked Electric Drives

In this article, we present the design and implementation of a cyber-physical security testbed for networked electric drive systems, aimed at conducting real-world security demonstrations. To our knowledge, this is one of the first security testbeds for networked electric drives, seamlessly integrating the domains of power electronics and computer science, and cybersecurity. By doing so, the testbed offers a comprehensive platform to explore and understand the intricate and often complex interactions between cyber and physical systems. The core of our testbed consists of four electric machine drives, meticulously configured to emulate small-scale but realistic information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) networks. This setup both provides a controlled environment for simulating a wide array of cyber-attacks, and mirrors potential real-world attack scenarios with a high degree of fidelity. The testbed serves as an invaluable resource for the study of cyber-physical security, offering a practical and dynamic platform for testing and validating cybersecurity measures in the context of networked electric drive systems. As a concrete example of the testbed's capabilities, we have developed and implemented a Python-based script designed to execute step-stone attacks over a wireless local area network (WLAN). This script leverages a sequence of target IP addresses, simulating a real-world attack vector that could be exploited by adversaries. To counteract such threats, we demonstrate the efficacy of our developed cyber-attack detection algorithms, which are integral to our testbed's security framework. Furthermore, the testbed incorporates a real-time visualization system using InfluxDB and Grafana, providing a dynamic and interactive representation of networked electric drives and their associated security monitoring mechanisms. This visualization component not only enhances the testbed's usability but also offers insightful, real-time data for researchers and practitioners, thereby facilitating a deeper understanding of cyber-physical security dynamics in networked electric drive systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Testbed for Studying Cyberattacks and Defense in DER-integrated Smart Inverter Systems

In this paper, we propose a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) simulation testbed suitable for the implementation and testing of realistic cyberattacks on grid-tied smart inverter systems integrated with Distributed Energy Resources (DER) that use the Distributed Network Protocol-3 (DNP3) protocol for communications between grid components. Specifically, our testbed combines a Real-Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) NovaCor device, outfitted with GNETx2 network interface cards, a gridtied DER topology implemented via the RTDS software package RSCAD, and a custom virtual network that emulates a man in the middle attacker. The Man-in-the-Middle (MITM) attacker captures DNP3 traffic and falsifies telemetry data in DNP3 packets to trigger unwarranted commands from a DNP3 controller that exploit smart inverter grid support functions. We choose DNP3 and implement grid support functions according to the IEEE Std. 1547-2018 mandated for the interconnection and interoperability of DER power systems with associated power components. Furthermore, we develop a protocol payload agnostic attack detection framework that leverages the round-trip time (RTT) anomalies between DNP3 requests and responses and can detect the presence of attacks without having to analyze the payload’s contents, while balancing trade-offs between false alarm counts, missed detections, and time to detection. To facilitate further research, we publicly release benign and attack network traffic exchanged between various sensors, controllers, and actuators in our grid-tied inverter testbed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implicit quantile networks for emulation in jet physics

Abstract The ability to model and sample from conditional densities is important in many physics applications. Implicit quantile networks (IQN) have been successfully applied to this task in domains outside physics. In this work, we illustrate the potential of IQNs as components of emulators using the simulation of jets as an example. Specifically, we use an IQN to map jets described by their 4-momenta at the generation level to jets at the event reconstruction level. The conditional densities emulated by our model closely match those generated by Delphes , while also enabling faster jet simulation.

Kronheim, Braden (ORCID:0000000307040972)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

SUNBIRD : a simulation-based model for full-shape density-split clustering

Combining galaxy clustering information from regions of different environmental densities can help break cosmological parameter degeneracies and access non-Gaussian information from the density field that is not readily captured by the standard two-point correlation function (2PCF) analyses. However, modelling these density-dependent statistics down to the non-linear regime has so far remained challenging. We present a simulation-based model that is able to capture the cosmological dependence of the full shape of the density-split clustering (DSC) statistics down to intra-halo scales. Our models are based on neural-network emulators that are trained on high-fidelity mock galaxy catalogues within an extended-ΛCDM framework, incorporating the effects of redshift-space, Alcock–Paczynski distortions, and models of the halo–galaxy connection. Our models reach sub-percent level accuracy down to $1 \, h^{-1}\text{Mpc}$ and are robust against different choices of galaxy–halo connection modelling. When combined with the galaxy 2PCF, DSC can tighten the constraints on ω cdm , σ 8 , and n s by factors of 2.9, 1.9, and 2.1, respectively, compared to a 2PCF-only analysis. DSC additionally puts strong constraints on environment-based assembly bias parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Detector Interface for Streaming, Control, and Open-source integration (DISCO) v1.0.0

This suite consists of a multi-package ecosystem featuring detector emulators, EPICS areaDetector drivers, and remote server frameworks designed for the Advanced Light Source (ALS). Engineered for high-bandwidth devices—including VFCCD, Timepix3, Timepix4, and related pixel detectors—the software simulates hardware, wraps vendor SDKs into remote-callable servers, and integrates with open-source control systems. Key Capabilities: Distributed SDK Architecture: Server packages wrap hardware-specific SDKs, allowing areaDetector drivers to execute remote framework calls. This isolates proprietary libraries from the EPICS IOC, enhancing stability and enabling distributed computing across beamline networks. Device Support: Custom drivers for VFCCD, the Timepix family, and similar sensors optimize the data path from hardware control to high-speed transport. Full-Stack Emulation: Sophisticated emulator packages allow end-to-end pipeline testing and software development without requiring physical hardware or beam time. Integrated Workflows: Supports high-bandwidth streaming for real-time analysis and robust, metadata-rich file-based workflows (e.g., HDF5/NeXus). By standardizing interfaces across heterogeneous hardware, this suite reduces technical debt. It provides the ALS with a scalable, open-source solution to manage massive data rates within a unified control environment.

Mahl, Johannes [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Complementing Dynamical Downscaling With Super‐Resolution Convolutional Neural Networks

Despite advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods for climate downscaling, significant challenges remain for their practicality in climate research. Current AI-methods exhibit notable limitations, such as limited application in downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs), and accurately representing extremes. To address these challenges, we implement an AI-based methodology using super-resolution convolutional neural networks (SRCNN), trained and evaluated on 40 years of daily precipitation data from a reanalysis and a high-resolution dynamically downscaled counterpart. The dynamical downscaled simulations, constrained using spectral nudging, enable the replication of historical events at a higher resolution. This allows the SRCNN to emulate dynamical downscaling effectively. Modifications, such as incorporating elevation data and data pre-processing enhances overall model performance, while using exponential and quantile loss functions improve the simulation of extremes. Our findings show SRCNN models efficiently and skillfully downscale precipitation from GCMs. Future work will expand this methodology to downscale additional variables for future climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optical Control of Adaptive Nanoscale Domain Networks

Adaptive networks can sense and adjust to dynamic environments to optimize their performance. Understanding their nanoscale responses to external stimuli is essential for applications in nanodevices and neuromorphic computing. However, it is challenging to image such responses on the nanoscale with crystallographic sensitivity. Here, the evolution of nanodomain networks in (PbTiO 3 ) n /(SrTiO 3 ) n superlattices (SLs) is directly visualized in real space as the system adapts to ultrafast repetitive optical excitations that emulate controlled neural inputs. The adaptive response allows the system to explore a wealth of metastable states that are previously inaccessible. Their reconfiguration and competition are quantitatively measured by scanning x-ray nanodiffraction as a function of the number of applied pulses, in which crystallographic characteristics are quantitatively assessed by assorted diffraction patterns using unsupervised machine-learning methods. The corresponding domain boundaries and their connectivity are drastically altered by light, holding promise for light-programable nanocircuits in analogy to neuroplasticity. Phase-field simulations elucidate that the reconfiguration of the domain networks is a result of the interplay between photocarriers and transient lattice temperature. The demonstrated optical control scheme and the uncovered nanoscopic insights open opportunities for the remote control of adaptive nanoscale domain networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rate expressions and kinetic parameters for metal ferrites in relation to applications of fossil fuel conversion to hydrogen: Part 1 of 2

Here, the goal of the present work was to provide the necessary reaction emulation information to enable detailed process simulation of a chemical looping H 2 production system from fossil fuels using CaFe 2 O 4 . This specifically pertained to the necessary kinetic data, reaction model development, and model rate parameters required for reaction emulation in both reducing and oxidizing environments. A logical methodology was defined, which included discretization of the reaction network, establishing a core model for reaction emulation that could be adapted based on the system phenomena, and development of a rate parameter regression tool designed around the core model. An extensive array of data sets was acquired by which parametric regressions were performed. The work presented and tabulated a comprehensive set of rate parameters for the reduction and oxidation reactions of CaFe 2 O 4 and descendent phases of Ca 2 Fe 2 O 5 , FeO, Fe 3 O 4 , Fe, and CaO to emulate reaction behavior in a looping-based process environment. This included direct reduction using CH 4 , H 2 , and CO, and direct oxidation reactions with steam, CO 2 and O 2 . Dynamic equilibrium was quantified for reactions that could utilize H 2 O and CO 2 as soft oxidants to re-saturate lattice oxygen in the depleted structure/phases. The kinetics associated with the oxidative mechanisms with the soft oxidants were quantified and compared to those of the reducing counterparts. The analysis provided critical insight to emulate reactions for a process that seeks to use natural gas (NG) or other fossil fuels as a direct reductant for the end goal of H 2 production.

calcium ferrite oxygen carriers↗

DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate modeling of Monte Carlo radiation transport with convolutional neural networks for shielding optimization

Here, we present a machine learning (ML)-based surrogate model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) designed to emulate the attenuation of neutron fields as they pass through various shielding materials. This model can compute the outgoing neutron flux almost instantaneously and achieves reasonable accuracy compared to traditional Monte Carlo (MC)-based codes, which are computationally intensive. This emulator alleviates the complexity of neutron radiation transport through shielding materials by reducing the dimensionality and enables shielding optimization for a known radiation environment. This optimization process, which would have taken an unrealistic timeline due to several complex radiation transport simulations, can now be achieved in minutes, thus increasing computational capabilities in radiation shielding assessment. We demonstrate the applications of this emulator in computing effective dose rates and optimizing shielding solutions for a heavy-ion accelerator facility, such as the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, where secondary neutrons produced via beam interactions dominate the radiation environment.

accelerator shielding↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites↗

DOE OSTI2025

Functional Design of Peptide Materials Based on Supramolecular Cohesion

Peptide materials offer a broad platform to design biomimetic soft matter, and filamentous networks that emulate those in extracellular matrices and the cytoskeleton are among the important targets. Given the vast sequence space, a combination of computational approaches and readily accessible experimental techniques is required to design peptide materials efficiently. Here, we report here on a strategy that utilizes this combination to predict supramolecular cohesion within filaments of peptide amphiphiles, a property recently linked to supramolecular dynamics and consequently bioactivity. Using established coarse-grained simulations on 10,000 randomly generated peptide sequences, we identified 3500 likely to self-assemble in water into nanoscale filaments. Atomistic simulations of small clusters were used to further analyze this subset of sequences and identify mathematical descriptors that are predictive of intermolecular cohesion, which was the main purpose of this work. We arbitrarily selected a small cohort of these sequences for chemical synthesis and verified their fiber morphology. With further characterization, we were able to link the latent heat associated with fiber to micelle transitions, an indicator of cohesion and potential supramolecular dynamicity within the filaments, to calculated hydrogen bond densities in the simulation clusters. Based on validation from in situ synchrotron X-ray scattering and differential scanning calorimetry, we conclude that the phase transitions can be easily observed by very simple polarized light microscopy experiments. We are encouraged by the methodology explored here as a relatively low-cost and fast way to design potential functions of peptide materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalability of Real-time Distribution Models

This work will focus on developing the capabilities and validating the models for a sub transmission network with multiple feeders and microgrids. To achieve this scale of Hardware-in-the-loop (HitL) simulation, it is necessary to federate and collaborate. The work aims to design the large-scale feeder models to allow federation with complementary testbeds in the future. The feeder would be designed to be reconfigurable to put the system into a variety of modes. Aggregators models will be included in each distribution network’s federate to take control actions and interact with the management systems. Lastly, the feeder model will support large scale resilience studies involving complex Distributed Energy Resources (DER) controls, microgrid studies and emulation of complex data flows in future grid architectures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beyond interpolation: Physics-inspired gating transformers for extrapolating irradiation conditions to novel nuclear fuels

The qualification of advanced nuclear fuels relies on irradiation experiments in test reactors that emulate commercial conditions. Designing these tests requires accurate prediction of key irradiation quantities, particularly heat generation rate and burnup, yet obtaining them typically involves computationally expensive multi-step simulation workflows. We propose a physics-inspired gating transformer (PIGT) that integrates an inverse-square, distance-based attenuation into the encoder representation to bias attention toward physically relevant spatial relationships while retaining data-driven flexibility. Using MiniFuel irradiation data from the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we benchmark against ensemble methods, feedforward and recurrent networks, convolutional models, and standard transformers. While baseline models perform well under interpolation, they exhibit a pronounced generalization gap when evaluated on fuels not included in the training set. The proposed model consistently improves extrapolative accuracy and stability, yielding the strongest performance on unseen fuel configurations. These results indicate that a lightweight physics structure embedded within attention mechanisms can substantially improve robustness, enabling more reliable surrogate predictions to accelerate the design of nuclear fuel irradiation experiments.

Fuel qualification↗