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Tuning Neural Network Models for Improved Prediction of Boundary Layer Transition

Boundary layer transition can strongly impact flight vehicle performance as it influences surface skin friction and aerodynamic heating, making accurate transition prediction a key to designing next generation aircraft. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown promise toward predicting laminar-turbulent transition based on linear stability correlations. The computational efficiency of ANNs and the substantially reduced user involvement in relation to direct computations based on the linear stability theory (LST) makes them an attractive methodology for integrating the LST based correlations in computational fluid dynamics codes. Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) waves correspond to the dominant transition mechanism in 2D or weakly 3D subsonic boundary layers, such as those encountered in general aviation applications. Improvements to neural network model accuracy in predicting the amplification rates of TS instability waves have been investigated by leveraging recent machine learning developments in conjunction with surrogate optimization techniques and via suitable augmentation of the data used to train the networks. The optimized models trained on the modified dataset reduced the average transition location errors on different airfoils at several flow conditions by 51% of the original manually-tuned network’s errors on the same flow cases. The actual transition locations were derived from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code (LASTRAC).

Machine Learning

Task network models in the prediction of workload imposed by extravehicular activities during the Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission

In a joint effort with Brooks AFB, Texas, the Flight Crew Support Division at JSC has begun a computer simulation and performance modeling program directed at establishing the predictive validity of software tools for modeling human performance during spaceflight. This paper addresses the utility of task network modeling for predicting the workload that astronauts are likely to encounter in extravehicular activities (EVA) during the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) repair mission. The intent of the study was to determine whether two EVA crewmembers and one intravehicular activity (IVA) crewmember could reasonably be expected to complete HST Wide Field/Planetary Camera (WFPC) replacement in the allotted time. Ultimately, examination of the points during HST servicing that may result in excessive workload will lead to recommendations to the HST Flight Systems and Servicing Project concerning (1) expectation of degraded performance, (2) the need to change task allocation across crewmembers, (3) the need to expand the timeline, and (4) the need to increase the number of EVA's.

Diaz, Manuel F.

A Validated Set of MIDAS V5 Task Network Model Scenarios to Evaluate Nextgen Closely Spaced Parallel Operations Concepts

The Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) scenario is a complex, human performance model scenario that tested alternate operator roles and responsibilities to a series of off-nominal operations on approach and landing (see Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013). The model links together the procedures, equipment, crewstation, and external environment to produce predictions of operator performance in response to Next Generation system designs, like those expected in the National Airspaces NextGen concepts. The task analysis that is contained in the present report comes from the task analysis window in the MIDAS software. These tasks link definitions and states for equipment components, environmental features as well as operational contexts. The current task analysis culminated in 3300 tasks that included over 1000 Subject Matter Expert (SME)-vetted, re-usable procedural sets for three critical phases of flight; the Descent, Approach, and Land procedural sets (see Gore et al., 2011 for a description of the development of the tasks included in the model; Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the model, and its results; Hooey, Gore, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the guidelines that were generated from the models results; Gore, Hooey, Foyle, 2012 for a description of the models implementation and its settings). The rollout, after landing checks, taxi to gate and arrive at gate illustrated in Figure 1 were not used in the approach and divert scenarios exercised. The other networks in Figure 1 set up appropriate context settings for the flight deck.The current report presents the models task decomposition from the tophighest level and decomposes it to finer-grained levels. The first task that is completed by the model is to set all of the initial settings for the scenario runs included in the model (network 75 in Figure 1). This initialization process also resets the CAD graphic files contained with MIDAS, as well as the embedded operator models that comprise MIDAS. Following the initial settings, the model progresses to begin the first tasks required of the two flight deck operators, the Captain (CA) and the First Officer (FO). The task sets will initialize operator specific settings prior to loading all of the alerts, probes, and other events that occur in the scenario. As a note, the CA and FO were terms used in developing this model but the CA can also be thought of as the Pilot Flying (PF), while the FO can be considered the Pilot-Not-Flying (PNF)or Pilot Monitoring (PM). As such, the document refers to the operators as PFCA and PNFFO respectively.

task network model

An Ensemble Neural Network Model for Predicting Rare-Earth Oxide and Silicate Heat Capacities at High Temperature

In this work, a neural network model was developed to predict the constant pressure heat capacity for materials in the rare-earth oxide—silica material space. Several model architectures were trained and tested on heat capacity data generated from first-principles density functional theory calculations. Hyperparameter optimization was performed, and the optimal model was selected for heat capacity predictions. The optimal model architecture was found to have a root-mean-squared error of 5.12 ± 3.37 J/mol-K. The optimal model architecture was then used in a bagging ensemble model trained using the leave-one-group-out method to provide error estimates for model predictions. The out-of-bag score for the ensemble model was 0.997. The predicted heat capacities agree well with the DFT and experimental results and were computed orders of magnitude faster than DFT simulations. Machine learning shows the potential to provide a suitable surrogate model for thermochemical property predictions for candidate environmental barrier coating materials but refining of input material features and model architectures could further improve accuracy for these models.

environmental barrier coatings

Chemical Reactor Network Modeling of Ammonia Rich-Quench-Lean Combustion Using a Partially Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative fuel, but its use is challenging due to low flammability and high nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in reducing NOx emissions. This approach involves two stages: a rich stage that oxidizes part of the fuel and decomposes ammonia into hydrogen, and a lean stage that burns out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Researchers used a chemical reactor network model to study the effects of heat loss and mixing on emissions performance. They found that heat loss and reduced mixing rates can lead to increased NOx emissions and N2O formation. The results will inform the development of optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia, with a focus on minimizing NOx emissions and improving overall efficiency.

ammonia combustion

Neural Network Models of Simple Mechanical Systems Illustrating the Feasibility of Accelerated Life Testing

A complete evaluation of the tribological characteristics of a given material/mechanical system is a time-consuming operation since the friction and wear process is extremely systems sensitive. As a result, experimental designs (i.e., Latin Square, Taguchi) have been implemented in an attempt to not only reduce the total number of experimental combinations needed to fully characterize a material/mechanical system, but also to acquire life data for a system without having to perform an actual life test. Unfortunately, these experimental designs still require a great deal of experimental testing and the output does not always produce meaningful information. In order to further reduce the amount of experimental testing required, this study employs a computer neural network model to investigate different material/mechanical systems. The work focuses on the modeling of the wear behavior, while showing the feasibility of using neural networks to predict life data. The model is capable of defining which input variables will influence the tribological behavior of the particular material/mechanical system being studied based on the specifications of the overall system.

Fusaro, Robert L.

Processors, Pipelines, and Protocols for Advanced Modeling Networks

Predictive capabilities arise from our understanding of natural processes and our ability to construct models that accurately reproduce these processes. Although our modeling state-of-the-art is primarily limited by existing computational capabilities, other technical areas will soon present obstacles to the development and deployment of future predictive capabilities. Advancement of our modeling capabilities will require not only faster processors, but new processing algorithms, high-speed data pipelines, and a common software engineering framework that allows networking of diverse models that represent the many components of Earth's climate and weather system. Development and integration of these new capabilities will pose serious challenges to the Information Systems (IS) technology community. Designers of future IS infrastructures must deal with issues that include performance, reliability, interoperability, portability of data and software, and ultimately, the full integration of various ES model systems into a unified ES modeling network.

Coughlan, Joseph

GIS Data Based Automatic High-Fidelity 3D Road Network Modeling

3D road models are widely used in many computer applications such as racing games and driving simulations_ However, almost all high-fidelity 3D road models were generated manually by professional artists at the expense of intensive labor. There are very few existing methods for automatically generating 3D high-fidelity road networks, especially those existing in the real world. This paper presents a novel approach thai can automatically produce 3D high-fidelity road network models from real 2D road GIS data that mainly contain road. centerline in formation. The proposed method first builds parametric representations of the road centerlines through segmentation and fitting . A basic set of civil engineering rules (e.g., cross slope, superelevation, grade) for road design are then selected in order to generate realistic road surfaces in compliance with these rules. While the proposed method applies to any types of roads, this paper mainly addresses automatic generation of complex traffic interchanges and intersections which are the most sophisticated elements in the road networks

Wang, Jie

Feasibility of Using Neural Network Models to Accelerate the Testing of Mechanical Systems

Verification testing is an important aspect of the design process for mechanical mechanisms, and full-scale, full-length life testing is typically used to qualify any new component for use in space. However, as the required life specification is increased, full-length life tests become more costly and lengthen the development time. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, we theorized that neural network systems may be able to model the operation of a mechanical device. If so, the resulting neural network models could simulate long-term mechanical testing with data from a short-term test. This combination of computer modeling and short-term mechanical testing could then be used to verify the reliability of mechanical systems, thereby eliminating the costs associated with long-term testing. Neural network models could also enable designers to predict the performance of mechanisms at the conceptual design stage by entering the critical parameters as input and running the model to predict performance. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential of using neural networks to predict the performance and life of mechanical systems. To do this, we generated a neural network system to model wear obtained from three accelerated testing devices: 1) A pin-on-disk tribometer; 2) A line-contact rub-shoe tribometer; 3) A four-ball tribometer.

Fusaro, Robert L.

Character recognition using a neural network model with fuzzy representation

The degree to which digital images are recognized correctly by computerized algorithms is highly dependent upon the representation and the classification processes. Fuzzy techniques play an important role in both processes. In this paper, the role of fuzzy representation and classification on the recognition of digital characters is investigated. An experimental Neural Network model with application to character recognition was developed. Through a set of experiments, the effect of fuzzy representation on the recognition accuracy of this model is presented.

Tavakoli, Nassrin

Queueing Network Models for Parallel Processing of Task Systems: an Operational Approach

Computer performance modeling of possibly complex computations running on highly concurrent systems is considered. Earlier works in this area either dealt with a very simple program structure or resulted in methods with exponential complexity. An efficient procedure is developed to compute the performance measures for series-parallel-reducible task systems using queueing network models. The procedure is based on the concept of hierarchical decomposition and a new operational approach. Numerical results for three test cases are presented and compared to those of simulations.

Mak, Victor W. K.

Neural-Network Modeling Of Arc Welding

Artificial neural networks considered for use in monitoring and controlling gas/tungsten arc-welding processes. Relatively simple network, using 4 welding equipment parameters as inputs, estimates 2 critical weld-bead paramaters within 5 percent. Advantage is computational efficiency.

Anderson, Kristinn

Uncertainty propagation in feed-forward neural network models

We develop new uncertainty propagation methods for feed-forward neural network architectures with leaky ReLU activation functions subject to random perturbations in the input vectors. In particular, we derive analytical expressions for the probability density function (PDF) of the neural network output and its statistical moments as a function of the input uncertainty and the parameters of the network, i.e., weights and biases. A key finding is that an appropriate linearization of the leaky ReLU activation function yields accurate statistical results even for large perturbations in the input vectors. This can be attributed to the way information propagates through the network. We also propose new analytically tractable Gaussian copula surrogate models to approximate the full joint PDF of the neural network output. To validate our theoretical results, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations and a thorough error analysis on a multi-layer neural network representing a nonlinear integro-differential operator between two polynomial function spaces. Our findings demonstrate excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and Monte Carlo simulations.

MLP networks