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Air Pollution Scenario over Pakistan: Characterization and Ranking of Extremely Polluted Cities using Long-Term Concentrations of Aerosols and Trace Gases

Pakistan ranks third in the world in terms of mortality attributable to air pollution, with aerosol mass concentrations (PM2.5) consistently well above WHO (World Health Organization) air quality guidelines (AQG). However, regulation is dependent on a sparse network of air quality monitoring stations and insufficient ground data. This study utilizes long-term observations of aerosols and trace gases to characterize and rank the air pollution scenarios and pollution characteristics of 80 selected cities in Pakistan. Datasets used include (1) the Aqua and Terra (AquaTerra) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Level 2 Collection 6.1 merged Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products; (2) the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) reanalysis PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 data; (3) the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis PM2.5 data, (4) the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and VCD of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), (5) the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) Nighttime Lights data, (6) MODIS Collection 6 Version 2 global monthly fire location data (MCD14ML), (7) population density, (8) MODIS Level 3 Collection 6 land cover types, (9) AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) Version 3 Level 2.0 data, and (10) ground-based PM2.5 concentrations from air quality monitoring stations. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analyses were performed by integrating with ground-based PM2.5 concentrations and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) air parcel back trajectories to identify potential pollution source areas which are responsible for extreme air pollution in Pakistan. Results show that the ranking of the top polluted cities depends on the type of pollutant considered and the metric used. For example, Jhang, Multan, and Vehari were characterized as the top three polluted cities in Pakistan when considering AquaTerra DTB AOD products; for PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 Lahore, Gujranwala, and Okara were the top three; for tropospheric NO2 VCD Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad and for PBL SO2 VCD Lahore, Mirpur, and Gujranwala. The results demonstrate that Pakistan’s entire population has been exposed to high PM2.5 concentrations for many years, with a mean annual value of 54.7 μg/cu. m, over all Pakistan from 2003 to 2020. This value exceeds Pakistan’s National Environmental Quality Standards (Pak-NEQS, i.e., <15 μg/cu. m annual mean) for ambient air defined by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) as well as the WHO Interim Target-1 (i.e., mean annual PM2.5 <35 μg/cu. m). The spatial analyses of the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases in terms of population density, nighttime lights, land cover types, and fire location data, and the PSCF analysis indicate that Pakistan’s air quality is strongly affected by anthropogenic sources inside of Pakistan, with contributions from surrounding countries. Statistically significant positive (increasing) trends in PM1, PM2.5, PM10, tropospheric NO2 VCD, and SO2 VCD were observed in ~89%, ~67%, ~48%, 91%, and ~88% of the Pakistani cities (80 cities), respectively. This comprehensive analysis of aerosol and trace gas levels, their characteristics in spatio-temporal domains, and their trends over Pakistan, is the first of its kind. Results will be helpful to the Ministry of Climate Change (Government of Pakistan), Pak-EPA, SUPARCO (Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission), policymakers, and the local research community to mitigate air pollution and its effects on human health.

Muhammad Bilal↗

Use of VIIRS DNB Data to Monitor Power Outages and Restoration for Significant Weather Events

NASA fs Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project operates from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The team provides unique satellite data to the National Weather Service (NWS) and other agencies and organizations for weather analysis. While much of its work is focused on improving short-term weather forecasting, the SPoRT team supported damage assessment and response to Hurricane Superstorm Sandy by providing imagery that highlighted regions without power. The team used data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite. The VIIRS low-light sensor, known as the day-night-band (DNB), can detect nighttime light from wildfires, urban and rural communities, and other human activity which emits light. It can also detect moonlight reflected from clouds and surface features. Using real time VIIRS data collected by our collaborative partner at the Space Science and Engineering Center of the University of Wisconsin, the SPoRT team created composite imagery to help detect power outages and restoration. This blackout imagery allowed emergency response teams from a variety of agencies to better plan and marshal resources for recovery efforts. The blackout product identified large-scale outages, offering a comprehensive perspective beyond a patchwork GIS mapping of outages that utility companies provide based on customer complaints. To support the relief efforts, the team provided its imagery to the USGS data portal, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other agencies used in their relief efforts. The team fs product helped FEMA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Army monitor regions without power as part of their disaster response activities. Disaster responders used the images to identify possible outages and effectively distribute relief resources. An enhanced product is being developed and integrated into a web mapping service (WMS) for dissemination and use by a broader end user community.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Reducing Light Pollution in U.S. Coastal Regions Using the High Sensitivity Cameras on the SAC-C and Aquarius/SAC-D Satellites

Light pollution has significant adverse biological effects on humans, animals, and plants and has resulted in the loss of our ability to view the stars and planets of the universe. Over half of the U.S. population resides in coastal regions where it is no longer possible to see the stars and planets in the night sky. Forty percent of the entire U.S. population is never exposed to conditions dark enough for their eyes to convert to night vision capabilities. In coastal regions, urban lights shine far out to sea where they are augmented by the output from fishing boat, cruise ship and oil platform floodlights. The proposed candidate solution suggests using HSCs (high sensitivity cameras) onboard the SAC-C and Aquarius/SAC-D satellites to quantitatively evaluate light pollution at high spatial resolution. New products modeled after pre-existing, radiance-calibrated, global nighttime lights products would be integrated into a modified Garstang model where elevation, mountain screening, Rayleigh scattering, Mie scattering by aerosols, and atmospheric extinction along light paths and curvature of the Earth would be taken into account. Because the spatial resolution of the HSCs on SAC-C and the future Aquarius/SAC-D missions is greater than that provided by the DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) OLS (Operational Linescan System) or VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite), it may be possible to obtain more precise light intensity data for analytical DSSs and the subsequent reduction in coastal light pollution.

Andrews, Jane C.↗

Impact of Color Space and Color Resolution on Vehicle Recognition Models

In this study, we analyze both linear and nonlinear color mappings by training on versions of a curated dataset collected in a controlled campus environment. We experiment with color space and color resolution to assess model performance in vehicle recognition tasks. Color encodings can be designed in principle to highlight certain vehicle characteristics or compensate for lighting differences when assessing potential matches to previously encountered objects. The dataset used in this work includes imagery gathered under diverse environmental conditions, including daytime and nighttime lighting. Experimental results inform expectations for possible improvements with automatic color space selection through feature learning. Moreover, we find there is only a gradual decrease in model performance with degraded color resolution, which suggests the need for simplified data collection and processing. By focusing on the most critical features, we could see improved model generalization and robustness, as the model becomes less prone to overfitting to noise or irrelevant details in the data. Such a reduction in resolution will lower computational complexity, leading to quicker training and inference times.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Detecting Important Drivers of Gridded Population Modeling With Machine Learning

High-resolution population datasets have been lever-aged across a broad swath of domains, such as climate change, public policy, humanitarian aid, and rescue operations, among others. Machine learning methods were adopted to generate high-resolution or gridded population estimates by using various geospatial input features such as buildings, roads, and nighttime lights. In this study, we evaluate the importance of population features using Random Forest models across three levels of analysis, utilizing permutation measures. Our research aims to address key questions to enhance our understanding of high-resolution population modeling, such as: Are certain features globally (10 countries collectively) more important than others? Do optimal features vary by country? Within each country, do feature importance differ across administrative units? What similarities exist in feature importance at the global, country, and administrative unit levels? To answer these questions, we leverage the Kneedle algorithm to automate the selection of optimum features. We find that there are patterns displayed by features across spatial boundaries, evidenced by the same feature being the most important indicator of population across 7 of the 10 countries modeled. Our findings indicate that while important features may vary across geographies, certain features consistently hold greater importance than others agnostic of geography.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗

Assessment of the CALIPSO Lidar 532 nm Attenuated Backscatter Calibration Using the NASA LaRC Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar

The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) spacecraft has provided global, high-resolution vertical profiles of aerosols and clouds since it became operational on 13 June 2006. On 14 June 2006, the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) was deployed aboard the NASA Langley B-200 aircraft for the first of a series of 86 underflights of the CALIPSO satellite to provide validation measurements for the CALIOP data products. To better assess the range of conditions under which CALIOP data products are produced, these validation flights were conducted under both daytime and nighttime lighting conditions, in multiple seasons, and over a large range of latitudes and aerosol and cloud conditions. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the CALIOP 532 nm calibration (through the 532 nm total attenuated backscatter) using an internally calibrated airborne HSRL underflight data and is the most extensive study of CALIOP 532 nm calibration. Results show that average HSRL and CALIOP 532 nm total attenuated backscatter agree on average within 2.7% +/- 2.1% (CALIOP lower) at night and within 2.9 % +/- 3.9% (CALIOP lower) during the day., demonstrating the accuracy of the CALIOP 532 nm calibration algorithms. Additionally, comparisons with HSRL show consistency of the CALIOP calibration before and after the laser switch in 2009 as well as improvements in the daytime version 3 calibration scheme compared with the version 2 calibration scheme. Potential systematic uncertainties in the methodology relevant to validating satellite lidar measurements with an airborne lidar system are discussed and found to be less than 3.7% for this validation effort with HSRL. Results from this study are also compared to those from prior assessments of CALIOP calibration and attenuated backscatter.

Rogers, Raymond R.↗

Continental Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis with Linear Spectral Mixture Model Using FOSS

This work demonstrates the development and implementation of a Fully Constrained Least Squares (FCLS) unmixing model developed in C++ programming language with OpenCV package and boost C++ libraries in the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX). Visualization of the results is supported by GRASS GIS and statistical analysis is carried in R in a Linux system environment. FCLS was first tested on computer simulated data with Gaussian noise of various signal-to-noise ratio, and Landsat data of an agricultural scenario and an urban environment using a set of global end members of substrate (soils, sediments, rocks, and non-photosynthetic vegetation), vegetation that includes green photosynthetic plants and dark objects which encompasses absorptive substrate materials, clear water, deep shadows, etc. For the agricultural scenario, a spectrally diverse collection of 11 scenes of Level 1 terrain corrected, cloud free Landsat-5 TM data of Fresno, California, USA were unmixed and the results were validated with the corresponding ground data. To study an urbanized landscape, a clear sky Landsat-5 TM data were unmixed and validated with coincident World View-2 abundance maps (of 2 m spatial resolution) for an area of San Francisco, California, USA. The results were evaluated using descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, RMSE, probability of success, boxplot and bivariate distribution function. Finally, FCLS was used for sub-pixel land cover analysis of the monthly WELD (Wen-enabled Landsat data) repository from 2008 to 2011 of North America. The abundance maps in conjunction with DMSP-OLS nighttime lights data were used to extract the urban land cover features and analyze their spatial-temporal growth.

Landsat Satellites↗

Linear Subpixel Learning Algorithm for Land Cover Classification from WELD using High Performance Computing

In this work, we use a Fully Constrained Least Squares Subpixel Learning Algorithm to unmix global WELD (Web Enabled Landsat Data) to obtain fractions or abundances of substrate (S), vegetation (V) and dark objects (D) classes. Because of the sheer nature of data and compute needs, we leveraged the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) high performance computing architecture to optimize and scale our algorithm for large-scale processing. Subsequently, the S-V-D abundance maps were characterized into 4 classes namely, forest, farmland, water and urban areas (with NPP-VIIRS-national polar orbiting partnership visible infrared imaging radiometer suite nighttime lights data) over California, USA using Random Forest classifier. Validation of these land cover maps with NLCD (National Land Cover Database) 2011 products and NAFD (North American Forest Dynamics) static forest cover maps showed that an overall classification accuracy of over 91 percent was achieved, which is a 6 percent improvement in unmixing based classification relative to per-pixel-based classification. As such, abundance maps continue to offer an useful alternative to high-spatial resolution data derived classification maps for forest inventory analysis, multi-class mapping for eco-climatic models and applications, fast multi-temporal trend analysis and for societal and policy-relevant applications needed at the watershed scale.

Subpixel↗

NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near Real-Time Capability for EOS (LANCE): Delivering Data and Imagery to Meet the Needs of Near Real-Time Applications

NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) is a virtual system that provides near real-time EOS data and imagery from the AIRS, AMSR2, LIS (ISS), MISR, MLS, MODIS, MOPITT, OMI, OMPS, and VIIRS instruments, to meet the needs of scientists and application users interested in monitoring a wide variety of natural and man-made phenomena. NRT imagery from LANCE are available through NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), Worldview, FIRMS and most recently through Worldview Snapshots – a low band width application that has replaced the Rapid Response Subsets. Over the past year: data and imagery from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on board the International Space Station (ISS), OMPS and VIIRS-Land have been added to LANCE. In the coming year LANCE will integrate the MODIS NRT Global Flood product, VIIRS Black Marble nighttime lights and Cloud Mask and Aerosol Dark Target from VIIRS Atmosphere. Here we provide a brief overview of LANCE, focusing on what's new and describing how these new data sets have been used to monitor lightning flashes, hurricanes and fires. For more information on LANCE visit: https://earthdata.nasa.gov/lance.

Davies, Diane↗

Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink

With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.

Weir, B.↗

The Use of Gridded Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (FFCO2) Inventory for Climate Mitigation Applications: Errors, Uncertainties, and Current and Future Challenges

Emission Inventory (EI) is a fundamental tool to monitor global compliance of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions reduction actions. Inventory guidelines provide a best practice to help EI compilers to make comparable national emission estimates, in spite of the differences in data availability across countries and regions. There are a variety of sources of errors and uncertainties, however, that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines define. For example, spatially-explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes, and there are no specific guidelines to disaggregate emission estimates from country scale. On top of that, EIs are fundamentally prone to systematic biases due to the simple calculation methodology and thus an objective evaluation (e.g. atmospheric top-down estimates) is needed to assure the accuracy of the estimates. ODIAC is a global high-resolution (1x1 km) fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) gridded EI that is now often used in atmospheric CO2 modeling. ODIAC is based on disaggregation of national emission estimates made by CDIAC, which is the well accepted standard in the community. The ODIAC emission data product is updated on an annual basis using best available statistical data. Subnational spatial emission patterns are estimated using power plant profiles and satellite-observations of nighttime lights. In addition to the conventional CDIAC gridded data product, ODIAC carries international bunker emissions (shipping and aviation), which allows flux inversion modelers to accurately impose the global total fossil fuel emissions and their horizontal and vertical distribution. We have extensively evaluated ODIAC emissions using fine-grained EIs as well as a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy relevant) with a focus on the uncertainties associated with the emission disaggregation. We have examined the use of NASA's Black Marble Suomi-NPP/VIIRS nightlight data.

Oda, Tomohiro↗

Progress in Atmospheric Carbon Monitoring Using NASA's GEOS Model and Data from the OCO and GOSAT Missions

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces a variety of carbon products based the synthesis of satellite remote sensing data and outputs of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This includes bottom-up surface fluxes due to fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, terrestrial biospheric exchange, and ocean exchangeconstrained by measurements of nighttime lights, fire radiative power, normalized difference vegetation index, and ocean color. These fluxes are the basis of top-down estimates of carbon concentrations and fluxes. In particular, the GMAO system processes retrievals of column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from GOSAT and OCO-2 to produce a high-resolution, long-term global analysis of CO2 in three dimensions every 6 hours. Here, we discuss the potential applications of such products for satellite intercomparison and evaluation against independent, non-coincident data. We also highlight the ability to provide monthly global atmospheric growth rates inferred from the assimilated CO2 concentration product. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing such products including bias correction and the estimation and analysis of model transport errors.

Weir, B.↗

Bias-Correcting Carbon Fluxes Derived From Land-Surface Satellite Data for Retrospective and Near Real-Time Assimilation Systems

The ability to monitor and understand natural and anthropogenic variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) is a growing need of many stakeholders across the world. Systems that assimilate satellite observations, given their short latency and dense spatial coverage, into high resolution global models are valuable, if not essential, tools for addressing this need. A notable drawback of modern assimilation systems is the long latency of many vital in-put datasets, e.g., inventories, in situ measurements, and re-processed remote-sensing data can trail the current date by months to years. This paper describes techniques for bias-correcting surface fluxes derived from satellite observations of the Earth’s surface to be consistent with constraints from inventories and in situ CO2 datasets. The techniques are applicable in both short-term forecasts and retrospective simulations, thus taking advantage of the coverage and short latency of satellite data while reproducing the major features of long-term inventory and in situ records. Our approach begins with a standard collection of diagnostic fluxes which incorporate a variety of remote-sensing driver data, viz. vegetation indices, fire radiative power, and nighttime lights. We then apply an empirical sink so that global budgets of the diagnostic fluxes match given atmospheric and oceanic growth rates for each year. This step removes coherent, systematic flux errors that produce biases inCO2which mask the signals an assimilation system hopes to capture. Depending on the simulation mode, the empirical sink uses different choices of atmospheric growth rates: estimates based on observations in retrospective mode and projections based on seasonal fore-casts of sea surface temperature in forecasting mode. The retrospective fluxes, when used in simulations with NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), reproduce marine boundary layer measurements with comparable skill to those using fluxes from a modern inversion system. The forecasted fluxes show promising accuracy in their application to the analysis of changes in the carbon cycle as they occur.

CO2↗

Low Latency Flux and Concentration Datasets in Support of Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Based on NASA's GEOS Modeling and Data Assimilation System

We present efforts to develop space-based greenhouse gas monitoring systems that can provide low latency information and traceability to independent observations. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO2 mixing ratio. When OCO-2 data are not available, concentration fields are further informed by a bottom-up flux package based on remotely sensed fire radiative power, nighttime lights, and vegetation reflectance combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of this dataset supports evaluation with independent aircraft data, helping to ensure transparency of remotely sensed data products. These quasi-operational data are currently produced 2-3 months behind real time and are distributed via NASA and international dashboard services to a variety of end users. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the system as well as remaining data gaps and modeling challenges. We also highlight the application of this dataset for detecting emissions anomalies associated with COVID-19 and comparing against independent emissions estimates. Finally, we highlight a new NASA initiative called the Earth Information System (EIS), which aims to support open science and applications by leveraging emerging cloud computing capabilities to increase access to NASA’s greenhouse gas datasets, opportunities for co-development, and transparency in methods for analysis and flux attribution.

Lesley Ott↗

New York Ecological Conservation: Evaluating Agricultural Conservation Easement Impact Using Earth Observations to Examine Avoided Soil Carbon Loss to Development

Farmland provides ecosystems and communities with services ranging from habitat conservation to food security. As total U.S. farmland continues to decline, agricultural lands near urban areas are especially vulnerable. Our project partners—Finger Lakes Land Trust, Genesee Land Trust, and Saratoga Preserving Land and Nature (PLAN)—can use study results to better profile farmland vulnerability, issuing conservation easements to protect maximum acreage in Saratoga County and the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple existing studies effectively use remote sensing imagery to analyze historical land cover and forecast future change. This study examined soil carbon stocks and land cover change to estimate avoided soil carbon loss. We also predicted farmland vulnerability. We completed these analyses using European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA Earth observations that include Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) for nighttime lights data that aided in the land change model analysis. We determined that the conversion of agriculture to development from 1990 to 2022 occurred at rates of 0.91% (Finger Lakes) and 7% (Saratoga). Urban development is predicted to increase surrounding urban centers through 2030 and 2050. We also estimate that between 26.5 and 348,101 kilotons (Finger Lakes) and 3.7 and 58,006 kilotons (Saratoga) of soil carbon losses have been avoided through agricultural easements. Findings from this study will support our partners in determining agricultural conservation easement benefits and prioritizing the acquisition of future easement sites.

Agriculture↗

From CMS to the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center – Improved Tracking of Recent Changes in Co 2 and Ch 4 From NASA’s Quasi-Operational Modeling Systems

Reliable, low latency delivery of high quality global flux and concentration information is a growing but still unmet need to advance expanding measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification efforts that underpin federal climate mitigation strategies. Here we present on progress toward developing space-based greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring systems that can provide comprehensive information trailing real time by a matter of weeks to a few months. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO 2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO 2 ) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO 2 mixing ratio. When observations are unavailable, concentration fields are further informed by observationally-informed bottom-up flux packages that incorporate remotely sensed fire, nighttime lights, and vegetation observations combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of these datasets supports evaluation with independent aircraft data to improve confidence in satellite data, development of new regional modeling approaches, and quantification of the climate impacts of GHGs. The system has recently been expanded to assimilate XCH 4 from ESA’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument and is supported by companion efforts to improve delivery of estimates of bottom-up land and ocean fluxes. The quasi-operational GEOS-GHG system is contributing to the recently announced U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center (GHG Center) by delivering information on recent changes in CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and concentrations to support stakeholder and research communities. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the current system configured to support the GHG Center. We highlight examples of how this data contributes to broader NASA initiatives including the Earth Information Center, an innovative virtual and physical exhibit designed to show how NASA data helps the nation combat climate change. We conclude by discussing how innovations in CMS research can address remaining data gaps and modeling challenges to advance operational GHG monitoring in the future.

Lesley Ott↗

Impact of Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, and Urbanization on Wetland Habitat in the Platte River Basin​

The Platte River Basin (PRB) is a dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for various flora and fauna, including local and migratory birds. It provides many crucial ecosystem services that benefit humans directly and indirectly. However, anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization have resulted in decline in wildlife habitat, elevated flood risk, and wetland loss. To address this issue, NASA DEVELOP partnered with Audubon Great Plains (AGP) to address the vital habitats within urban areas to protect bird species, reduce flood hazards, and analyze the potential impact of future development on wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to assess land use and land cover (LULC) change. Nighttime lights data from Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) population data were also used as inputs to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. A broad scale analysis across 13 focal cities showed varied changes in land use patterns across the PRB, with the most notable being a decrease in agricultural land coverage and an increase in vegetation and grassland coverage. We overlaid a flood extent map with the LULC classifications in Grand Island to identify possible restoration sites under AGP’s Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative. The results for two proposed scenarios showed that at least 51 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by year 2050. The first scenario (all wetlands are protected) showed that there will be no loss of wetlands by 2050. However, the second scenario (no wetlands are protected) showed a decrease in wetland area and loss of habitat for bird conservation. The results will help AGP to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies in the future.​

Nancee Uniyal↗

The NASA Disasters Response Coordination System’s (DRCS) Response to the 2024 Hurricane Season

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Disasters Response Coordination System (DRCS) leverages the best available science and expertise to aid federal, state, local, and non-governmental organization (NGO) partners in addressing identified needs during a disaster response. During the 2024 hurricane season, the DRCS activated for seven hurricanes/tropical storms, providing openly available geospatial data through NASA’s Disasters Mapping Portal. Hurricanes Helene and Milton were major hurricanes that impacted the southeastern United States within weeks of one another. Impacts from Helene and Milton to the region included inland flooding, record coastal storm surge, over a thousand landslides, and regional power and telecommunications outages. In response to Helene and Milton, DRCS provided actionable information and products to stakeholders, including Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) analysis for landslide and flood detection, Black Marble nighttime lights products for assessing power outages, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis for post-event vegetation change detection. NASA deployed an Uninhibited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) instrument to collect data on flood extent, providing crucial information on affected communities. Additionally, astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) collected hand-held photography along the paths of Hurricane Helene and Milton to aid in response efforts. Here, we summarize the DRCS responses to Helene and Milton, in particular highlighting the information and products that were provided by the DRCS and how they were utilized by partners to address immediate response needs.

Earth observations↗