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Recommendations for an Applicant to Calculate Activity Data for Greenhouse Gases Estimates

In 2009, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) directed the NRC staff to address climate change issues and consider the impacts of the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in its environmental reviews for major licensing actions (NRC 2009b). To implement this direction from the Commission, the staff issued guidance in 2011 and updated guidance in 2014 in Attachment 1 to Interim Staff Guidance COL/ESP-ISG-026 (NRC 2011; NRC 2014). This guidance provides a simpler method than the method described in RG 4.2 Rev. 3, that an applicant can use to meet the plant parameter envelope (PPE) value from the Generic Environmental Impact Statement for Licensing of New Nuclear Reactors (NR GEIS). NRC staff estimated the 97-year lifecycle GHG emissions from a reference 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) light-water reactor (LWR) for various activities associated with construction, operation (including uranium fuel cycle), and decommissioning of nuclear power plants and presented the results in Appendix H of the NR GEIS. Appendix H of the NR GEIS includes estimates of direct emissions from construction equipment and emergency diesel engines in a nuclear facility and indirect emissions from workforce vehicular traffic, fuel transportation and the uranium fuel cycle. The NR GEIS Section 3.3 extended the estimates in Appendix H for the installation of two 1000 MWe nuclear reactors on the same site. Scaling factors were used to extrapolate the GHG emissions of a reference 1000 MWe reactor to a two-unit nuclear reactor plant (each reactor unit generating 1000 MWe). GHG emission estimates for building, operation, decommissioning and safe storage (SAFSTOR) for a two-unit nuclear reactor plant would be based on the plant’s physical size, and therefore estimates for these source categories were assumed to be twice the value of the reference 1000 MWe reactor. However, GHG emissions from the fuel cycle (including fuel transportation) were scaled upward by a factor of 3, based on plant efficiencies greater than the 80 percent assumption in Appendix H. Table 1 below shows the PPE emissions for two 1000 MWe nuclear reactors as provided in NR GEIS. The total GHG emissions for two 1000 MWe reactors were calculated as 2,534,000 metric tons (MT) of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 (e)) based on a 97 year GHG life cycle period. The GHG emissions lifetime of 97 years for a reference nuclear reactor includes a 7-year building phase, 40 years of operation, 10 years of active decommissioning, and 40 years of SAFSTOR operations (NRC 2024). Construction equipment and vehicular traffic from workers commute would contribute to the GHG emissions during a 7-year building phase. Uranium fuel cycle, vehicular traffic, fuel and waste transportation, and testing of standby diesel generators would contribute to GHG emissions during the 40-year operations phase. While NRC’s regulations allow up to 60 years of reactor facility decommissioning, Appendix H estimated that most of the GHGs would occur over an estimated 10-year period during which to the licensee would engage in significant demolition and earth-moving activities, as discussed in Supplement 1 to NUREG-0586 (NRC 2002). Vehicular traffic by the workforce during a 40-year SAFSTOR period would additionally contribute GHG emissions. The carbon footprint for a 40-year SAFSTOR period was separately analyzed from the decommissioning activities as provided in Table YYYY-2 of the staff issued guidance in 2011 (NRC 2011).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

SPARC - Plans for a New Critical Experiment Facility with a Horizontal Split Table

Several critical experiment facilities, sometimes referred to as zero power reactor facilities, have provided crucial data to aid understanding and validate nuclear-physics models since the beginning of nuclear technology. Indeed, the first man-made reactor, Chicago Pile-1, was essentially this type of reactor. However, there was a downturn in nuclear technology development toward the turn of the millennium, and the need for these specialized research facilities waned. Now there are few of these experimental facilities operational in the world and those that remain have relatively small critical assembly machines. The need for criticality safety benchmark experiments at intermediate neutron energy levels and the modern resurgence of interest in advanced reactors designs, many of which do not have historical precedents in terms of nuclear fuel composition, moderator, and coolant combinations, all combine to create a substantial need for a critical experiment facility with a large horizontal split-table (HST) machine. A HST machine is used to arrange two separate and subcritical parts of a core assembly, bring them together in a precise manner to achieve criticality using remote controls, and separate them to achieve a subcritical configuration again. A new effort was recently performed to develop user needs for a HST, assess candidate locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and develop a plan for deployment. This project is referred to as the System Physics Advanced Reactor Critical facility (SPARC). A few months after this assessment began, and shortly after as a viable pathway was emerging, a series of important presidential executive orders were issued to revitalize nuclear energy in the United States (U.S.). The relevance of SPARC to these executive orders was immediately apparent. The far-reaching potential of SPARC to these executive orders will reside in its ability to produce data which facilitates licensing of advanced nuclear reactor designs while reducing uncertainties to help increase energy production alongside new criticality safety data to enable more efficient nuclear fuel manufacture, transport, and storage.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Method for Real-Time Salt Aerosol Concentration and Size Measurements for Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessments

Licensing a new nuclear reactor involves evaluating credible accident scenarios by developing models that simulate accident progression to predict possible outcomes and their impact on safety. The formation of radionuclide-bearing aerosols in the respirable size range can significantly affect dose consequence and threaten human health and is therefore a focus of nuclear reactor safety assessments. Recent reviews of the literature identified a lack of existing experimental data describing the mechanisms of formation and properties (size, concentration, and composition) of radionuclide-bearing aerosols that may be produced from molten salt reactor (MSR) facilities during postulated accident scenarios. Experiments on aerosol formation from molten salt systems are a high priority need that will support MSR licensing by indicating the radiological consequences of aerosol formation and providing the data required for model development and validation. The evolving conditions that occur during a MSR accident, such as a spill of molten fuel salt, may affect aerosol formation mechanisms and aerosol properties over time. There is a need to conduct experiments that simulate credible MSR accidents in a laboratory to generate aerosols with realistic characteristics and behaviors and a need to measure these aerosols in real time under accident-relevant conditions. This report describes the development of a method that can be used to quantify the size and concentration of salt aerosol particles that form from molten salt systems in real time. This method will be employed in future integral effects tests that are conducted at an engineering scale to simulate realistic MSR accidents and in future separate effects tests that will provide mechanistic insight into aerosol formation and properties to support process model development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Quality Assurance of the Irradiated EBR-II Metallic Fuels Data

The U.S. DOE-NE’s Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Fast Reactor Program (FRP) and the NE-4 Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) have jointly undertaken efforts to qualify post-irradiation examination (PIE) data for Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) metallic fuels. Among the thousands of PIE datasets in the Metallic Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD), data from selected EBR-II experiments have been prioritized as the most valuable to the U.S. nuclear industry for licensing activities related to metallic fuel-based advanced fast reactors. This report summarizes the general data qualification progress of the EBR-II and FFTF experiments, with focus on the selected EBR-II experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Automated Waterbox Inspection for Nuclear Power Plants Using Computer Vision - Based Change Detection

Nuclear power plant waterboxes require regular inspection for leaks, missing components, and structural damage during maintenance outages. Traditional manual inspection is time-consuming and poses safety risks from confined space entry. We developed an automated computer vision system for drone-based waterbox inspection in partnership with Florida Light and Power. Our approach uses feature detection and matching to identify critical changes between baseline and current inspection images, automatically flagging additions (leaks/debris), removals (missing plugs), and translations (displaced components) while compensating for drone movement and environmental variations. We systematically evaluated six feature matching methods, from classical approaches (SIFT+BF) to state-of-the-art neural networks (SuperPoint+SuperGlue), using both standard benchmarks (HPatches) and waterbox-specific validation with real-world augmentations. SuperPoint+SuperGlue achieved superior performance with 7.82 pixels RMSE and 100% success rate—2.8x better accuracy than our baseline. While the pre-trained model has commercial licensing restrictions for nuclear deployment, our findings validate this architecture for custom training. We implemented a real-time GUI demonstrating the SIFT+BF approach for immediate deployment, processing drone feeds at 30 FPS with color-coded change visualization. Future work includes training a custom SuperPoint+SuperGlue model on waterbox data and integrating Vision-Language Models for automated reporting and maintenance guidance.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Safety Assurance of Software and Machine Learning Development for Nuclear Instrumentation and Controls

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems monitor and control parameters in nuclear power plants. Ensuring their safety is a critical part of ensuring overall plant safety. Nuclear power plant licensing generates thousands of safety documents that could be organized more effectively using a safety assurance case (SAC). We conducted a literature survey of SACs and created a SAC framework for DI&C software using Goal Structuring Notation (GSN). This framework focuses on four software development processes: management & assurance, pre-developed software (PDS) qualification, the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC), and the Machine Learning Development Life Cycle (MLDLC). We organized our framework using a novel level structure that can be applied to other SACs to improve their clarity. Finally, we demonstrate how our framework can be incorporated as part of a SAC for a larger reactor system.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN

Updated General Aviation Non-Airport Crash Density Values Using Data Obtained from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board for 2000 through 2019

This report documents the calculation of the General Aviation (GA) non-airport crash density for Department of Energy (DOE) sites and power generating facilities licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) using the methodology outlined in DOE-STD-3014-2006, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash Into Hazardous Facilities. The results of this report will be used by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) for the development of ANS standard 2.36, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Reactor and Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Using Calibrated Sodium Data for Preliminary Validation of the SRT Code for Advanced Reactors

Various types of non-light water reactors are currently engaged in the U.S. licensing process. Because of inherent differences compared with well-established large light water reactors, appropriate assessment tools are needed. Specifically, source term analysis, which determines environmental dose impacts from potential accident scenarios, is a crucial part of design and licensing. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has emphasized the importance of mechanistic source term analysis for advanced reactor deployments. To align with these needs, Argonne National Laboratory has developed the Simplified Radionuclide Transport (SRT) source term analysis code for metal fuel Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) and microreactors. SRT conducts time-dependent radionuclide transport and retention in SFRs for core and ex-core radionuclide source accident sequences. The main objective of SRT is to provide rapid sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, incorporating parametric uncertainties and summarizing probabilistic results. As part of the code validation process, a study focused on the bubble scrubbing module was performed using an experiment recently carried out by the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Based on the analysis, the modeling approach in SRT provides accurate results for small and large aerosols, while slight underprediction of radionuclide aerosol removal are observed for medium sized aerosols. However, the deviation is minor, considering the highly uncertain phenomenon and range of results, and is in the conservative direction. In addition, uncertainty information derived from the experiments is further implemented, reflecting the actual span of parameters, which leads to enhanced agreement with code predictions. The results demonstrate that SRT provides reasonable predictions for the bubble scrubbing process in sodium pool.

Kam, Dong Hoon

Characterization of MC&A for the Molten Salt Fuel Cycle

Advanced reactor developers are exploring diverse reactor designs, including molten salt reactors (MSRs). These advanced reactors are considered for wider applications and a range of deployment locations, including supporting the integration of renewable energy sources in the grid. There are three main types of MSRs: (1) reactors in which the fuel salt freely circulates within the core; (2) reactors with the fuel salt contained within vented fuel tubes; and (3) reactors that use molten salt solely as a coolant, with the fuel in a separate, solid form. In this document, the term MSR refers specifically to the first two types, which use fuel salt—special nuclear material (enriched uranium, plutonium, and 233 U) in chloride or fluoride form mixed with chloride- or fluoride-based carrier salt in a peritectic mixture—as the primary medium for fission. The composition of fuel salt, both at startup and for makeup or refueling, varies depending on the MSR design and the chosen fuel cycle approach, which can be either once-through or closed. For MSRs, a variety of fuel cycle approaches (e.g., U, U–Pu, U–Pu–TRU, U–Th, U–Pu–Th) are being considered. Fuel in MSRs is much different than traditional solid fuel, including its preparation. The uniqueness warrants investigation into characterizing fuel preparation processes, known as fuel salt synthesis . This effort characterized major fuel preparation and synthesis processes, identifying temperature, equipment, and environmental requirements for uranium-, plutonium-, and thorium-based fuel preparation and synthesis. Because MSR fuel salt synthesis facilities handle special nuclear material in loose, bulk form, a material control and accounting plan will be required for licensing from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission or under the US Department of Energy authorization. This effort serves as a foundation to investigate material control and accounting approaches for synthesis facilities, including determining measurement points and techniques. Because several MSR developers are planning demonstration facilities in the coming years, this effort will support stakeholders with preparing or reviewing material control and accounting plans for providing assurance that all special nuclear material is accounted for at fuel salt synthesis facilities. This report was produced for Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program under the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy, Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Versatile TRISO fuel particle modeling in Bison

Tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles are a key component in several previous and current reactors as well as in a variety of novel nuclear reactor designs. Interest in TRISO fuel is on the rise, necessitating considerable computer modeling of TRISO fuel behavior in order to support related design and licensing activities. The Bison nuclear fuel performance code, which offers a full set of capabilities for modeling TRISO fuels, makes it easier to explore the various important aspects of TRISO fuel behavior. One key advantage of Bison is its ability to create meshes in 1D, 2D, and 3D. Users can customize these meshes for specific geometries, mesh densities, and use cases. This enables a wide variety of analyses, including thermal, structural, mass diffusion, homogenization, and statistical failure analyses. Furthermore, the meshing capability simplifies analysts’ workflows. The inherent mesh generation capability eliminates the need for separate mesh-generating software and mesh file management. Also, the fact that the meshes are customizable makes it straightforward to automate an investigation over a range of geometric parameters or mesh densities. Here, the present paper highlights the ease with which Bison may be used to create meshes for both simple and relatively complex TRISO fuel particles, and it explores the types of analyses enabled by these meshes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Polaris-PARCS Sensitivity Study on LWR Fuel Cycles: Polaris Input Options

This study is the first of a multi-phase effort to assess the sensitivity of light-water reactor (LWR) core-level prediction biases to changes in lattice-level calculation parameters. Prediction bias is the measured-to-predicted difference in a core-level quantity of interest (QOI) which can be estimated by comparing the simulation results with the plant-measured data for key nuclear parameters. The LWR two-step neutronics codes employed herein are the SCALE–Polaris lattice physics code (v6.3.1) and the Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) nodal diffusion simulator (v3.4.2), both funded and used for confirmatory analysis to support licensing by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Polaris–PARCS is used to model Watts Bar Unit 1 cycles 1–3 and Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3. This study focuses on the impact of changes to Polaris input options such as scattering treatment or quadrature settings and how these input options induce changes in core-level quantities of interest (QOIs)bias. The report documents multiple bias assessments for different modeling choices and compares the bias magnitude to the QOI measurement uncertainties. Future companion reports will investigate the sensitivity of core-level LWR prediction bias to Polaris input options and Polaris-computed QOIs such as few-group assembly-homogenized cross sections to gain an understanding of the key drivers of prediction bias at lattice and core levels for application of a two-step LWR neutronics procedure in a licensing scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

A Potential NASA Research Reactor to Support NTR Development

In support of efforts for research into the design and development of a man rated Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) engine, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), is evaluating the potential for building a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensed research reactor. The proposed reactor would be licensed by NASA and operated jointly by NASA and university partners. The purpose of this reactor would be to perform further research into the technologies and systems needed for a successful NTR project and promote nuclear training and education.

Eades, Michael

A Research Reactor Concept to Support NTP Development

In support of efforts for research into the design and development of man rated Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), is evaluating the potential for building a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensed NTP based research reactor (NTPRR). The proposed NTPRR would be licensed by NASA and operated jointly by NASA and university partners. The purpose of the NTPRR would be used to perform further research into the technologies and systems needed for a successful NTP project and promote nuclear training and education.

Eades, Michael J.

ECAR-6440 Rev 2 MARVEL Hazard Evaluation

This hazard evaluation supports the Microreactor Applications Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) Project’s design effort and the development of the preliminary documented safety analysis (PDSA) (addendum to safety analysis report [SAR]-420, “Transient Reactor Test [TREAT] Facility FSAR”) (SAR-420-ADD-1). The hazard evaluation process for the MARVEL project for compliance with the requirements in 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” follows a process similar to the Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) as outlined in Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI)-18-04, “Risk-Informed Performance-Based Guidance for Non-Light Water Reactor Licensing Basis Development,” and supporting documents. The LMP process is adapted to fit Department of Energy (DOE) reactor regulatory requirements as applicable and appropriate using a graded approach based on the MARVEL microreactor design. This approach provides reasonable assurance of meeting the requirements of 10 CFR 830 for protection of the public, workers, and environment.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Framework Development and Demonstration

Nuclear power currently contributes approximately 20% of total electricity generation in the United States and more than 10% globally. Given the increasing reliance on nuclear energy to achieve our nation’s goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, there is significant pressure on the existing nuclear industry to extend plant operational licenses and improve efficiency. This is crucial as the existing nuclear fleet serves as a vital bridge until new light water and advanced reactors can be developed and deployed, bolstering the supply of carbon-free energy to meet domestic demands. Operational costs primarily consist of plant operation and maintenance and fuel costs, influenced by materials and reactor core designs. These factors, coupled with heavily subsidized renewable energy markets, create a challenging economic environment for the existing light water reactor fleet, as well as for new build projects. To address these economic challenges, the nuclear industry has developed a strategic blueprint aimed at enhancing nuclear power’s economic sustainability. Past initiatives, such as efforts to eliminate fuel failures by 2010 and reduce operating costs by 30% before 2020, have laid the groundwork. Optimizing core design parameters, including burnup limits and enrichment levels, can lengthen cycles, reduce outages, reduce batch reload batch fractions and spent fuel storage requirements, and lower maintenance and operating expenses, thereby enhancing economic viability. In the United States, boiling water reactors (BWRs) comprise approximately one-third of the fleet, although much of the research and development focus has traditionally been on pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Advances in modeling and simulation, particularly through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, are crucial to the long-term viability of BWRs, just as they are for PWRs. A key research area of the high burnup/increased enriched fuel initiative is focused on addressing loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA)-related issues. NEAMS has dedicated significant effort to enhancing tools to better support BWRs, with a current focus on showcasing the BWR framework for high-burnup LOCA analysis. This high-fidelity work will demonstrate a best estimate pin-by-pin high-burnup BWR LOCA analysis to assess full-core cladding rupture behavior. This modeling capability will help with better understanding and realistic evaluation of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) phenomena at BWRs, which then could be used to prevent FFRD at BWRs without penalizing operational parameters. In addition, the results of this work will help identify strategies to identify additional margins or to potentially limit cladding rupture through core design optimizations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS