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An approximate Kalman filter for ocean data assimilation: An example with an idealized Gulf Stream model

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximation of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudomeasurements are examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform an empirical nudging scheme used in a previous study. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

Fukumori, Ichiro↗

Geosat Data Assimilation with Application to the Eastern North Atlantic

An attempt is made to determine the three-dimensional ocean circulation from satellite altimeter measurements by assimilating Geosat sea surface height data into an eddy-resolving QuasiGeostrophic (QG) model of the eastern North Atlantic Ocean. Results are tested against independent information from hydrographic field observations and moored current meter data collected during the Geosat ERM. The comparison supports the concept of inferring aspects of the three-dimensional flow field from sea surface height observations by combining altimetric measurements with the dynamics of ocean circulation models. A Holland-type QG model with open boundaries is set up on a 2000 km X 2000 km domain of the eastern North Atlantic between 25 deg. and 45 deg. N, 32 deg. and 8 deg. W. By using a simple nudging technique, about two years of Geosat altimeter data are assimilated into the model every five days as space-time objective analyses on the model grid. The error information resulting from the analysis is used during the assimilation procedure to account for data uncertainties. Results show an intense eddy field, which in the surface layer interacts with a meandering Azores Front. Compared to Geosat, the model leads to smoothed fields that follow the observations. Model simulations are significantly correlated with hydrographic data from March 1988 and June 1989, both close to the surface and in the subsurface. Good agreement is also found between the model velocity fields and moored current meter data in the top two model layers. The agreement is visually weak in the bottom layer, although a coherence analysis reveals an agreement between the model simulation and current meter data over the full water column at periods exceeding 80 days.

Stammer, Detlef↗

Seismic Excitation of the Polar Motion

The mass redistribution in the earth as a result of an earthquake faulting changes the earth's inertia tensor, and hence its rotation. Using the complete formulae developed by Chao and Gross (1987) based on the normal mode theory, we calculated the earthquake-induced polar motion excitation for the largest 11,015 earthquakes that occurred during 1977.0-1993.6. The seismic excitations in this period are found to be two orders of magnitude below the detection threshold even with today's high precision earth rotation measurements. However, it was calculated that an earthquake of only one tenth the size of the great 1960 Chile event, if happened today, could be comfortably detected in polar motion observations. Furthermore, collectively these seismic excitations have a strong statistical tendency to nudge the pole towards approx. 140 deg E, away from the actually observed polar drift direction. This non-random behavior, similarly found in other earthquake-induced changes in earth rotation and low-degree gravitational field by Chao and Gross (1987), manifests some geodynamic behavior yet to be explored.

Chao, Benjamin Fong↗

Seismic Excitation of the Polar Motion, 1977-1993

The mass redistribution in the earth as a result of an earthquake faulting changes the earth's inertia tensor, and hence its rotation. Using the complete formulae developed by CHAO and GROSS (1987) based on the normal mode theory, we calculated the earthquake-induced polar motion excitation for the largest 11,015 earthquakes that occurred during 1977.0-1993.6. The seismic excitations in this period are found to be two orders of magnitude below the detection threshold even with today's high precision earth rotation measurements. However, it was calculated that an earthquake of only one tenth the size of the great 1960 Chile event, if happened today, could be comfortably detected in polar motion observations. Furthermore, collectively these seismic excitations have a strong statistical tendency to nudge the pole towards approximately 140deg E, away from the actual observed polar drift direction. This non-random behavior, similarly found in other earthquake-induced changes in earth rotation and low-degree gravitational field by CHAO and GROSS (1987), manifests some geodynamic behavior yet to be explored.

Chao, Benjamin Fong↗

Assimilation of Surface Temperature in Land Surface Models

Hydrological models have been calibrated and validated using catchment streamflows. However, using a point measurement does not guarantee correct spatial distribution of model computed heat fluxes, soil moisture and surface temperatures. With the advent of satellites in the late 70s, surface temperature is being measured two to four times a day from various satellite sensors and different platforms. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate use of satellite surface temperature in (a) validation of model computed surface temperatures and (b) assimilation of satellite surface temperatures into a hydrological model in order to improve the prediction accuracy of soil moistures and heat fluxes. The assimilation is carried out by comparing the satellite and the model produced surface temperatures and setting the "true"temperature midway between the two values. Based on this "true" surface temperature, the physical relationships of water and energy balance are used to reset the other variables. This is a case of nudging the water and energy balance variables so that they are consistent with each other and the true" surface temperature. The potential of this assimilation scheme is demonstrated in the form of various experiments that highlight the various aspects. This study is carried over the Red-Arkansas basin in the southern United States (a 5 deg X 10 deg area) over a time period of a year (August 1987 - July 1988). The land surface hydrological model is run on an hourly time step. The results show that satellite surface temperature assimilation improves the accuracy of the computed surface soil moisture remarkably.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗

Co-Seismic Mass Dislocation and Its Effect on Earth's Rotation and Gravity

Mantle processes often involve large-scale mass transport, ranging from mantle convection, tectonic motions, glacial isostatic adjustment, to tides, atmospheric and oceanic loadings, volcanism and seismicity. On very short time scale of less than an hour, co-seismic event, apart from the "shaking" that is the earthquake, leaves behind permanent (step-function-like) dislocations in the crust and mantle. This redistribution of mass changes the Earth's inertia tensor (and hence Earth's rotation in both length-of-day and polar motion), and the gravity field (in terms of spherical harmonic Stokes coefficients). The question is whether these effects are large enough to be of any significance. In this paper we report updated calculation results. The calculation uses the normal mode summation scheme, applied to 15,814 major earthquakes that occurred during 1976-1998, according to source mechanism solutions given by the Harvard Central Moment Tensor catalog. Compared to the truly large ones earlier in the century, the earthquakes we study are individually all too small to have left any discernible signature in geodetic records of Earth rotation or global gravity field. However, their collective effects continue to exhibit an extremely strong statistical tendencies. For example, earthquakes conspire to decrease J(sub 2) and J(sub 22) while shortening LOD, resulting in a rounder and more compact Earth. Strong tendency is also seen in the earthquakes trying to "nudge" the Earth rotation pole towards about 140 degree E, roughly opposite to the observed polar drift direction. The geophysical significance and implications will be further studied.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Aeolian Sand Transport in the Planetary Context: Respective Roles of Aerodynamic and Bed-Dilatancy Thresholds

The traditional view of aeolian sand transport generally estimates flux from the perspective of aerodynamic forces creating the airborne grain population, although it has been recognized that "reptation" causes a significant part of the total airborne flux; reptation involves both ballistic injection of grains into the air stream by the impact of saltating grains as well as the "nudging" of surface grains into a creeping motion. Whilst aerodynamic forces may initiate sand motion, it is proposed here that within a fully-matured grain cloud, flux is actually governed by two thresholds: an aerodynamic threshold, and a bed-dilatancy threshold. It is the latter which controls the reptation population, and its significance increases proportionally with transport energy. Because we only have experience with terrestrial sand transport, extrapolations of aeolian theory to Mars and Venus have adjusted only the aerodynamic factor, taking gravitational forces and atmospheric density as the prime variables in the aerodynamic equations, but neglecting reptation. The basis for our perspective on the importance of reptation and bed dilatancy is a set of experiments that were designed to simulate sand transport across the surface of a martian dune. Using a modified sporting crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism, individual grains of sand were fired at loose sand targets with glancing angles typical of saltation impact; grains were projected at about 80 m/s to simulate velocities commensurate with those predicted for extreme martian aeolian conditions. The sabot impelling method permitted study of individual impacts without the masking effect of bed mobilization encountered in wind-tunnel studies. At these martian impact velocities, grains produced small craters formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. Unexpectedly, the craters were not elongated, despite glancing impact; the craters were very close to circular in planform. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. Elastic energy deposited in the bed by the impacting grain creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains from closed to open packing, and grains are consequently able to eject themselves forcefully from the impact site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. There is a great temptation to draw parallels with cratering produced by meteorite impacts, but a rigorous search for common modelling ground between the two phenomena has not been conducted at this time. For every impact of an aerodynamically energized grain, there are several hundred grains ejected into the wind for the high-energy transport that might occur on Mars. Many of these grains will themselves become subject to the boundary layer's aerodynamic lift forces (their motion will not immediately die and add to the creep population), and these grains will become indistinguishable from those lifted entirely by aerodynamic forces. As each grain impacts the bed, it will eject even more grains into the flow. A cascading effect will take place, but because it must be finite in its growth, damping will occur as the number of grains set in motion causes mid-air collisions that prevent much of the impact energy from reaching the surface of the bed -thus creating a dynamic equilibrium in a high-density saltation cloud. It is apparent that for a given impact energy, the stress field permits a smaller volume of grains to convert to open packing as the size of the bed grains increases, or as the energy of the "percussive" grain decreases (by decrease in velocity or mass). Thus, the mass of the "repercussive" grain population that is ejected from the impact site becomes a function of the scale of the stress field in relation to the scale of the bed material (self-similarity being applicable if both bed size and energy are simultaneously adjusted). In other words, in a very high energy aeolian system where an aerodynamically raised grain can ballistically raise many more grains, the amount of material lifted into the wind becomes largely a function of a dilatancy threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, grains are repercussively injected into the saltation cloud. The "dilatancy threshold" may be defined in terms of the saltation percussive force required to convert the bed, through elastic response, from a closed to an open packing system. If open packing cannot be created, the grains cannot escape from the impact site, even though the elastic deformation and percussive force may be able to reorganize the grains with respect to one another. As the crossbow experiments showed, for an ever-increasing bed grain size, a point is reached when no material can be moved because the energy of the percussive grain is insufficient to dilate the relatively coarse bed. Although this seems to be stating the obvious -- that too little energy will not cause the bed to splash -- the consequences of exceeding the "splash threshold" by dilatancy are not so obvious for high-energy aeolian transport. It is noted that the force required to elastically dilate the bed has to overcome Coulombic grain attractions such as dipole-dipole coupling, dielectric, monopole, contact-induced dipole attractions, van der Waals forces, molecular monolayer capillary forces, as well as the mechanical interlocking frictional resistance of the grains. On Mars, it is predicted that the dilatancy threshold may be the prime control of grain flux. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

Computer Modeling of Sand Transport on Mars Using a Compart-Mentalized Fluids Algorithm (CFA)

It has been postulated that aeolian transport on Mars may be significantly different from that on Earth. From laboratory experiments simulating martian grain transport [2], it has been observed that (saltating) grains striking the bed can cause hundreds of secondary reptation trajectories when impact occurs at speeds postulated for Mars. Some of the ballistically induced trajectories "die ouf' and effectively join the ranks on the creep population that is merely nudged along by impact. Many of the induced reptation trajectories, however, are sufficiently high for the grains to become part of the saltation load (it is irrelevant to the boundary layer how a grain attained its initial lift force). When these grains, in turn, strike the surface, they too are capable of inducing more reptating grains. This cascading effect has been discussed in connection with terrestrial aeolian transport in an attempt to dispel the notion that sand motion is divisible only into creep and saltation loads. On Earth, only a few grains are splashed by impact. On Mars, it may be hundreds. We developed a computer model to address this phenomenon because there are some important ramifications: First, this ratio may mean that martian aeolian transport is dominated by reptation flux rather than saltation. On Earth, the flux would be a roughly balanced mixture between reptation/creep and saltation. On Venus, there would be no transport other than by saltation. In other words, an understanding of planetary aeolian processes may not be necessarily understood by extrapolating from the "Earth case", with only gravity and atmospheric density/viscosity being considered as variables. Second, the reptation flux on Mars may be self sustaining, so that little input is required by the wind once transport has been initiated. The number of grains saturating the boundary layer near the bed may mean that average grain speed on Mars might conceivably be less than that on Earth. This would say much for models of sand comminution on Mars. A multiple-grain transport model using just the equations of grain motion describing lift and drag is impossible to develop owing to stochastic effects --the very effects we wish to model. Also, unless we were to employ supercomputing techniques and extremely complex computer codes that could deal with millions of grains simultaneously, it would also be difficult to model grain transport if we attempted to consider every grain in motion. No existing computer models were found that satisfactorily used the equations of motion to arrive at transport flux numbers for the different populations of saltation and reptation. Modeling all the grains in a transport system was an intractable problem within our resources, and thus we developed what we believe to be a new modeling approach to simulating grain transport. The CFA deals with grain populations, but considers them to belong to various compartmentalized fluid units in the boundary layer. In this way, the model circumvents the multigrain problem by dealing primarily with the consequences of grain transport --momentum transfer between air and grains, which is the physical essence of a dynamic grain-fluid mixture. We thus chose to model the aeolian transport process as a superposition of fluids. These fluids include the air as well as particle populations of various properties. The prime property distinguishing these fluids is upward and downward grain motion. In a normal saltation trajectory, a grain's downwind velocity increases with time, so a rising grain will have a smaller downwind velocity than a failing grain. Because of this disparity in rising and falling grain proper-ties, it seemed appropriate to track these as two separate grain populations within the same physical space. The air itself can be considered a separate fluid superimposed within and interacting with the various grain-cloud "fluids". Additional informaiton is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

Coseismic Excitation of the Earth's Polar Motion

Apart from the "shaking" near the epicenter that is the earthquake, a seismic event creates a permanent field of dislocation in the entire Earth. This redistribution of mass changes (slightly) the Earth's inertia tensor; and the Earth's rotation will change in accordance with the conservation of angular momentum. Similar to this seismic excitation of Earth rotation variations, the same mass redistribution causes (slight) changes in the Earth's gravitational field expressible in terms of changes in the Stokes coefficients of its harmonic expansion. In this paper, we give a historical background of the subject and discuss the related physics; we then compute the geodynamic effects caused by earthquakes based on normal-mode summation scheme. The effects are computed using the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions for 15,814 major earthquakes from Jan., 1977, through Feb., 1999, as provided in the Harvard CMT catalog. The computational results further strengthens these findings and conclusions: (i) the strong tendency for earthquakes to make the Earth rounder and more compact (however slightly) continues; (ii) so does the trend in the seismic "nudging" of the rotation pole toward the general direction of approx. 140 E, roughly opposite to that of the observed polar drift, but two orders of magnitude smaller in drift speed.

Chao, B. F.↗

Quasi-Equilibrium States in the Tropics Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Specific Features and Budget Analysis - Part 1

A series of long-term integrations using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model were performed by altering imposed environmental components to produce various quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic states. Model results show that the genesis of a warm/wet quasi-equilibrium state is mainly due to either strong vertical wind shear (from nudging) or large surface fluxes (from strong surface winds), while a cold/dry quasi-equilibrium state is attributed to a remarkably weakened mixed-wind shear (from vertical mixing due to deep convection) along with weak surface winds. In general, latent heat flux and net large-scale temperature forcing, the two dominant physical processes, dominate in the beginning stage of the simulated convective systems, then considerably weaken in the final stage, which leads to quasi-equilibrium states. A higher thermodynamic regime is found to produce a larger rainfall amount, as convective clouds are the leading source of rainfall over stratiform clouds even though the former occupy much less area. Moreover, convective clouds are more likely to occur in the presence of strong surface winds (latent heat flux), while stratiform clouds (especially the well-organized type) are favored in conditions with strong wind shear (large-scale forcing). The convective systems, which consist of distinct cloud types due to the variation in horizontal winds, are also found to propagate differently. Accordingly, convective systems with mixed-wind shear generally propagate in the direction of shear, while the system with strong (multidirectional) wind shear propagates in a more complex way. Based on the results from the temperature (Q1) and moisture (Q2) budgets, cloud-scale eddies are found to act as a hydrodynamic 'vehicle' that cascades the heat and moisture vertically. Several other specific features such as atmospheric stability, CAPE, and mass fluxes are also investigated and found to be significantly different between diverse quasi-equilibrium states. Detailed comparisons between the various states are presented.

Shie, C.-L.↗

Co-Seismic Mass Dislocation and its Effect on Earth's Rotation and Gravity

Mantle processes often involve large-scale mass transport, ranging from mantle convection, tectonic motions, glacial isostatic adjustment, to tides, atmospheric and oceanic loadings, volcanism and seismicity. On very short time scale of less than an hour, co-seismic event, apart from the shaking that is the earthquake, leaves behind permanent (step-function-like) dislocations in the crust and mantle. This redistribution of mass changes the Earth's inertia tensor (and hence Earth's rotation in both length-of-day and polar motion), and the gravity field (in terms of spherical harmonic Stokes coefficients). The question is whether these effects are large enough to be of any significance. In this paper we report updated calculation results based on Chao & Gross (1987). The calculation uses the normal mode summation scheme, applied to nearly twenty thousand major earthquakes that occurred during 1976-2002, according to source mechanism solutions given by the Harvard Central Moment Tensor catalog. Compared to the truly large ones earlier in the century, the earthquakes we study are individually all too small to have left any discernible signature in geodetic records of Earth rotation or global gravity field. However, their collective effects continue to exhibit an extremely strong statistical tendencies. For example, earthquakes conspire to decrease J2 and J22 while shortening LOD, resulting in a rounder and more compact Earth. Strong tendency is also seen in the earthquakes trying to nudge the Earth rotation pole towards approximately 140 degrees E, roughly opposite to the observed polar drift direction. The geophysical significance and implications will be further studied.

Chao, B. F.↗

Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D model. The modeled cloud generated from such an approach is termed continuously forced convection or continuous large-scale forced convection. A third study, which focuses on the respective impact of atmospheric components on upper Ocean heat and salt budgets, will be presented in the end. Unlike the two previous 2-D studies, this study employs the 3-D GCE-simulated diabatic source terms (using TOGA COARE observations) - radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the Ocean mixed-layer (OML) model.

Shie, C.-L.↗

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in th~s direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Inner Radiation Belt Representation of the Energetic Electron Environment: Model and Data Synthesis Using the Salammbo Radiation Belt Transport Code and Los Alamos Geosynchronous and GPS Energetic Particle Data

The highly energetic electron environment in the inner magnetosphere (GEO inward) has received a lot of research attention in resent years, as the dynamics of relativistic electron acceleration and transport are not yet fully understood. These electrons can cause deep dielectric charging in any space hardware in the MEO to GEO region. We use a new and novel approach to obtain a global representation of the inner magnetospheric energetic electron environment, which can reproduce the absolute environment (flux) for any spacecraft orbit in that region to within a factor of 2 for the energy range of 100 KeV to 5 MeV electrons, for any levels of magnetospheric activity. We combine the extensive set of inner magnetospheric energetic electron observations available at Los Alamos with the physics based Salammbo transport code, using the data assimilation technique of "nudging". This in effect input in-situ data into the code and allows the diffusion mechanisms in the code to interpolate the data into regions and times of no data availability. We present here details of the methods used, both in the data assimilation process and in the necessary inter-calibration of the input data used. We will present sample runs of the model/data code and compare the results to test spacecraft data not used in the data assimilation process.

Friedel, R. H. W.↗

Co-Seismic Mass Displacement and its Effect on Earth's Rotation and Gravity

Mantle processes often involve large-scale mass transport, ranging from mantle convection, tectonic motions, glacial isostatic adjustment, to tides, atmospheric and oceanic loadings, volcanism and seismicity. On very short time scale of less than an hour, co-seismic event, apart from the "shaking" that is the earthquake, leaves behind permanent (step-function-like) displacements in the crust and mantle. This redistribution of mass changes the Earth's inertia tensor (and hence Earth's rotation in both length-of-day and polar motion), and the gravity field. The question is whether these effects are large enough to be of any significance. In this paper we report updated calculation results based on Chao & Gross. The calculation uses the normal mode summation scheme, applied to over twenty thousand major earthquakes that occurred during 1976-2002, according to source mechanism solutions given by the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor catalog. Compared to the truly large ones earlier in the century, the earthquakes we study are individually all too small to have left any discernible signature in geodetic records of Earth rotation or global gravity field. However, their collective effects continue to exhibit an extremely strong statistical tendencies, conspiring to decrease J2 and J22 while shortening LOD, resulting in a rounder and more compact Earth. Strong tendency is also seen in the earthquakes trying to "nudge" the Earth rotation pole towards approx. 140 deg.E, roughly opposite to the observed polar drift direction. Currently, the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) is measuring the time-variable gravity to high degree and order with unprecedented accuracy. Our results show that great earthquakes such as the 1960 Chilean or 1964 Alaskan events cause gravitational field changes that are large enough to be detected by GRACE.

Chao, B. F.↗

Torque Balances on the Taylor Cylinders in the Geomagnetic Data Assimilation

In this presentation we report on our continuing effort in geomagnetic data assimilation, aiming at understanding and predicting geomagnetic secular variation on decadal time scales. In particular, we focus on the effect of the torque balances on the cylindrical surfaces in the core co-axial with the Earth's rotation axis (the Taylor cylinders) on the time evolution of assimilated solutions. We use our MoSST core dynamics,model and observed geomagnetic field at the Earth's surface derived via Comprehensive Field Model (CFM) for the geomagnetic data assimilation. In our earlier studies, a model solution is selected randomly from our numerical database. It is then assimilated with the observations such that the poloidal field possesses the same field tomography on the core-mantel boundary (CMB) continued downward from surface observations. This tomography change is assumed to be effective through out the outer core. While this approach allows rapid convergence between model solutions and the observations, it also generates sevee numerical instabilities: the delicate balance between weak fluid inertia and the magnetic torques on the Taylor cylinders are completely altered. Consequently, the assimilated solution diverges quickly (in approximately 10% of the magnetic free-decay time in the core). To improve the assimilation, we propose a partial penetration of the assimilation from the CMB: The full-scale modification at the CMB decreases linearly and vanish at an interior radius r(sub a). We shall examine from our assimilation tests possible relationships between the convergence rate of the model solutions to observations and the cut-off radius r(sub a). A better assimilation shall serve our nudging tests in near future.

Kuang, Weijia↗

The Effect of the Saharan Air Layer on the Formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) Simulated with AIRS Data

The crucial physics of how the atmosphere really accomplishes the tropical cyclogenesis process is still poorly understood. The presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), an elevated mixed layer of warm and dry air that extends from Africa to the tropical Atlantic and contains a substantial amount of mineral dust, adds more complexity to the tropical cyclogenesis process in the Atlantic basin. The impact of the SAL on tropical cyclogenesis is still uncertain. Karyampudi and Carlson (1988) conclude that a strong SAL can potentially aid tropical cyclone development while Dunion and Velden (2004) argue that the SAL generally inhibits tropical cyclogenesis and intensification. Advancing our understanding of the physical mechanisms of tropical cyclogenesis and the associated roles of the SAL strongly depends on the improvement in the observations over the data-sparse ocean areas. After the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), and the microwave Humidity Sounder of Brazil (HSB) were launched with the NASA Aqua satellite in 2002, new data products retrieved from the AIRS suite became available for studying the effect of the warm, dry air mass associated with the SAL (referred to as the thermodynamic effect). The vertical profiles of the AIRS retrieved temperature and humidity provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the thermodynamic effect of the SAL. The observational data can be analyzed and assimilated into numerical models, in which the model thermodynamic state is allowed to relax to the observed state from AIRS data. The objective of this study is to numerically demonstrate that the thermodynamic effect of the SAL on the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) can be largely simulated through nudging of the AIRS data.

Wu, iguang↗

Validation of the Archived CERES Surface and Atmosphere Radiation Budget (SARB) at SGP

The CERES Surface and Atmosphere Radiation Budget (SARB) product (Charlock et al, 2002) includes the vertical profile of broadband SW, broadband LW, and 8-12 micron window (WN) fluxes; upwelling and downwelling at TOA, 70 hPa, 200 hPa, 500 hPa, and the surface; and for all-sky and clear-sky conditions. We test the archived CERES TRMM record of SARB for January-August 1998 and focus on discrepancies with ground-based measurements at SGP. The CERES SARB is generated by a highly modified Fu-Liou radiative transfer code (Fu and Liou, 1993). The most critical inputs for this application are cloud optical properties (fractional area, optical depth, particle size and phase, height of top, and estimate of geometrical thickness Minnis et al., 2002) from the narrowband VIRS imager. Numerous VIRS pixels (approx. 2km resolution at nadir) are matched to each of the large (approx. 20km) CERES broadband footprints (Wielicki et al, 1996). Other inputs include temperature and humidity from ECMWF (Rabier et al, 1998) , NCEP ozone profiles from SBUV and TOVS (Yang et al, 2001), aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Model for Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) aerosol assimilation (Collins et al., 2001) or alternately from the VIRS imager (Ignatov and Stowe, 2000). VIRS AOT is available for clear and partly cloudy ocean footprints during daylight; and only when viewing geometry renders a contribution from sunglint as unlikely. For other footprints, AOT is taken from MATCH. AOT is apportioned into fractions of dust (Tegan and Lacis, 1996), sea salt, sulfate, dust, soluble organic, insoluble organic, and soot (Hess et al., 1996) using the 6-hourly MATCH output. Tuned fluxes are retrieved by adjusting inputs to nudge computed TOA fluxes toward CERES observations (Rose et al, 1997). In clear conditions, the fields of humidity, surface skin temperature, surface albedo and AOT are adjusted to produce a closer match of computed and observed fluxes at TOA. When CERES footprints have clouds, the cloud optical thickness, fractional area within the footprint, and temperature of cloud top are adjusted by the tuning algorithm. Both tuned and untuned fluxes are archived, as are the respective adjustments to any parameters at the surface or within the atmosphere.

Charlock, Thomas P.↗