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Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II - Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters III: Building a Real-Time Statistical Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

Erika Munshi↗

NASA NTRS1994

Quality optimization of thermally sprayed coatings produced by the JP-5000 (HVOF) gun using mathematical modeling

Currently, thermal barrier coatings (TBC) of gas-turbine blades and similar applications have centered around the use of zirconia as a protective coating for high thermal applications. The advantages of zirconia include low thermal conductivity and good thermal shock resistance. Thermally sprayed tungsten carbide hardface coatings are used for a wide range of applications spanning both the aerospace and other industrial markets. Major aircraft engine manufacturers and repair facilities use hardface coatings for original engine manufacture (OEM), as well as in the overhaul of critical engine components. The principle function of these coatings is to resist severe wear environments for such wear mechanisms as abrasion, adhesion, fretting, and erosion. The (JP-5000) thermal spray gun is the most advanced in the High Velocity Oxygen Fuel (HVOF) systems. Recently, it has received considerable attention because of its relative low cost and its production of quality coatings that challenge the very successful but yet very expensive Vacuum Plasma Spraying (VPS) system. The quality of thermal spray coatings is enhanced as porosity, oxidation, residual stress, and surface roughness are reduced or minimized. Higher densification, interfacial bonding strength, hardness and wear resistance of coating are desirable features for quality improvement.

Tawfik, Hazem↗

NASA NTRS1976

Flatplate Solar Energy Collector

A small truck body fabricator in Florida became producer of flatplate solar collectors after having an inexpensive literature search performed by the NASA IAC in Research Triangle Park, NC. The center provided him with 314 abstracts of which he requested 15 full length articles. His total cost, $100.00, was sufficient to launch his new venture OEM Products, Inc. Flatplate collector design incorporates new black paint developed by Dow-Corning Corporation but not yet commercially available.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2003

Case Studies of Fatigue Life Improvement Using Low Plasticity Burnishing in Gas Turbine Engine Applications

Surface enhancement technologies such as shot peening, laser shock peening (LSP), and low plasticity burnishing (LPB) can provide substantial fatigue life improvement. However, to be effective, the compressive residual stresses that increase fatigue strength must be retained in service. For successful integration into turbine design, the process must be affordable and compatible with the manufacturing environment. LPB provides thermally stable compression of comparable magnitude and even greater depth than other methods, and can be performed in conventional machine shop environments on CNC machine tools. LPB provides a means to extend the fatigue lives of both new and legacy aircraft engines and ground-based turbines. Improving fatigue performance by introducing deep stable layers of compressive residual stress avoids the generally cost prohibitive alternative of modifying either material or design. The X-ray diffraction based background studies of thermal and mechanical stability of surface enhancement techniques are briefly reviewed, demonstrating the importance of minimizing cold work. The LPB process, tooling, and control systems are described. An overview of current research programs conducted for engine OEMs and the military to apply LPB to a variety of engine and aging aircraft components are presented. Fatigue performance and residual stress data developed to date for several case studies are presented including: * The effect of LPB on the fatigue performance of the nickel based super alloy IN718, showing fatigue benefit of thermal stability at engine temperatures. * An order of magnitude improvement in damage tolerance of LPB processed Ti-6-4 fan blade leading edges. * Elimination of the fretting fatigue debit for Ti-6-4 with prior LPB. * Corrosion fatigue mitigation with LPB in Carpenter 450 steel. *Damage tolerance improvement in 17-4PH steel. Where appropriate, the performance of LPB is compared to conventional shot peening after exposure to engine operating temperatures.

Prevey, Paul S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) Connectors in Space Flight Applications

This report documents the current status of CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors in GSFC spaceflight applications. To the extent the information is known, this report summarizes to what component quality level each NASA contractor (referred to as OEM in this report) procured the parts, and what board level and system level testing was performed. The report also provides the current status of the reliability assessment for each GSFC project based on the results of testing and FMEA (Failure Mode Effects Analysis). This report addresses how the CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors came into existence, and how these became the connector style chosen by many designers of space flight hardware. It identifies the design philosophy and the lack of robustness which has led to several known failure modes. These failure modes include fretting of connector pins during vibration, shock and thermal cycling, exposure of underplating, and increased resistance, including brief excursions to very high resistance. Each of these are signs of aging, which becomes an increasing concern for long duration orbiting space flight applications. This report addresses the mitigation strategy to replace CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors with space qualified Hypertronics 2mm cPCI connectors. The Hypertronics 2mm cPCI connectors are pin-to-pin compatible with the CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors and meet all of the same technical requirements, except the ability to hot mate, and to mate directly with a CompactPCI of the opposite gender. A detailed comparison of the CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connector and the Hypertronics 2mm cPCI connector is provided to describe the ruggedness of Hypertronics connector for space flight applications. Finally, this report makes recommendations for flight hardware for the future missions where the hardware is yet to be built, as well as for the hardware which has already been built with CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors.

Williams, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2009

Modeling Guidelines for Code Generation in the Railway Signaling Context

Modeling guidelines constitute one of the fundamental cornerstones for Model Based Development. Their relevance is essential when dealing with code generation in the safety-critical domain. This article presents the experience of a railway signaling systems manufacturer on this issue. Introduction of Model-Based Development (MBD) and code generation in the industrial safety-critical sector created a crucial paradigm shift in the development process of dependable systems. While traditional software development focuses on the code, with MBD practices the focus shifts to model abstractions. The change has fundamental implications for safety-critical systems, which still need to guarantee a high degree of confidence also at code level. Usage of the Simulink/Stateflow platform for modeling, which is a de facto standard in control software development, does not ensure by itself production of high-quality dependable code. This issue has been addressed by companies through the definition of modeling rules imposing restrictions on the usage of design tools components, in order to enable production of qualified code. The MAAB Control Algorithm Modeling Guidelines (MathWorks Automotive Advisory Board)[3] is a well established set of publicly available rules for modeling with Simulink/Stateflow. This set of recommendations has been developed by a group of OEMs and suppliers of the automotive sector with the objective of enforcing and easing the usage of the MathWorks tools within the automotive industry. The guidelines have been published in 2001 and afterwords revisited in 2007 in order to integrate some additional rules developed by the Japanese division of MAAB [5]. The scope of the current edition of the guidelines ranges from model maintainability and readability to code generation issues. The rules are conceived as a reference baseline and therefore they need to be tailored to comply with the characteristics of each industrial context. Customization of these recommendations has been performed for the automotive control systems domain in order to enforce code generation [7]. The MAAB guidelines have been found profitable also in the aerospace/avionics sector [1] and they have been adopted by the MathWorks Aerospace Leadership Council (MALC). General Electric Transportation Systems (GETS) is a well known railway signaling systems manufacturer leading in Automatic Train Protection (ATP) systems technology. Inside an effort of adopting formal methods within its own development process, GETS decided to introduce system modeling by means of the MathWorks tools [2], and in 2008 chose to move to code generation. This article reports the experience performed by GETS in developing its own modeling standard through customizing the MAAB rules for the railway signaling domain and shows the result of this experience with a successful product development story.

Ferrari, Alessio↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project

Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), depots, and support contract ors have to be prepared to deal with an electronics supply chain that increasingly provides parts with lead-free finishes, some labeled no differently and intermingled with their SnPb counterparts. Allowance of lead-free components presents one of the greatest risks to the r eliability of military and aerospace electronics. The introduction of components with lead-free terminations, termination finishes, or cir cuit boards presents a host of concerns to customers, suppliers, and maintainers of aerospace and military electronic systems such as: 1. Electrical shorting due to tin whiskers 2. Incompatibility of lead-f ree processes and parameters (including higher melting points of lead -free alloys) with other materials in the system 3. Unknown material properties and incompatibilities that could reduce solder joint reli ability As the transition to lead-free becomes a certain reality for military and aerospace applications, it will be critical to fully un derstand the implications of reworking lead-free assemblies.

Kessel, Kurt↗

NASA NTRS2011

DESDynI Lidar for Solid Earth Applications

As part of the NASA's DESDynI mission, global elevation profiles from contiguous 25 m footprint Lidar measurements will be made. Here we present results of a performance simulation of a single pass of the multi-beam Lidar instrument over uplifted marine terraces in southern Alaska. The significance of the Lidar simulations is that surface topography would be captured at sufficient resolution for mapping uplifted terraces features but it will be hard to discern I-2m topographic change over features less than tens of meters in width. Since Lidar would penetrate most vegetation, the accurate bald Earth elevation profiles will give new elevation information beyond the standard 30-m OEM.

Sauber, Jeanne↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA TEERM Hexavalent Chrome Alternatives Projects

The overall objective of the Hex Chrome Free Coatings for Electronics project is to evaluate and test pretreatment coating systems not containing hexavalent chrome in avionics and electronics housing applications. This objective will be accomplished by testing strong performing coating systems from prior NASA and DoD testing or new coating systems as determined by the stakeholders. The technical stakeholders have agreed that this protocol will focus specifically on Class 3 coatings. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), depots, and support contractors have to be prepared to deal with an electronics supply chain that increasingly provides parts with lead-free finishes, some labeled no differently and intermingled with their SnPb counterparts. Allowance of lead-free components presents one of the greatest risks to the reliability of military and aerospace electronics. The introduction of components with lead-free terminations, termination finishes, or circuit boards presents a host of concerns to customers, suppliers, and maintainers of aerospace and military electronic systems such as: 1. Electrical shorting due to tin whiskers 2. Incompatibility of lead-free processes and parameters (including higher melting points of lead-free alloys) with other materials in the system 3. Unknown material properties and incompatibilities that could reduce solder joint reliability

Kessel, Kurt R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project

Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). depots. and support contractors have to be prepared to deal with an electronics supply chain thaI increasingly provides parts with lead-free finishes. some labeled no differently and intenningled with their SnPb counterparts. Allowance oflead-free components presents one of the greatest risks to the reliability of military and aerospace electronics. The introduction of components with lead-free lenninations, tennination finishes, or circuit boards presents a host of concerns to customers. suppliers, and maintainers of aerospace and military electronic systems such as: 1. Electrical shorting due to tin whiskers; 2. Incompatibility oflead-free processes and parameters (including higher melting points of lead-free alloys) with other materials in the system; and 3. Unknown material properties and incompatibilities that could reduce solder joint re liability.

Kessel, Kurt↗

NASA NTRS2011

Investigation of International Space Station Major Constituent Analyzer Anomalous ORU 02 Performance

The Major Constituent Analyzer (MCA) is a mass spectrometer-based instrument designed to provide critical monitoring of six major atmospheric constituents; nitrogen, oxygen, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor on-board the International Space Station. It is an integral part of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS). The MCA system is comprised of seven orbit-replaceable units (ORUs) that provide flexibility in maintaining the MCA. Of these, ORU 02, the analyzer assembly requires replacement every 1 to 2 years due to the consumption of limited life components including the ion pump and ion source filaments. Typically, ORU 02s that reach end of life are swapped out of the MCA on orbit and replaced with the on-orbit spare. The replaced ORU 02 is then returned to the OEM for refurbishment and is then return to service. Recently, 2 refurbished ORU 02s, serial numbers F0001 and F0003, failed on orbit shortly after being installed into the MCA. Both ORU 02s have been returned to ground for TT&E, and a failure investigation is underway. The failure signatures have been reproduced on the ground and an initial investigation has determined that both ORU 02 failures involve either the ion source or the ion source control electronics. This paper discusses the results of the failure investigation, the steps required to refurbish the ORU 02s, and the risk mitigation steps that are being incorporated into the refurbishment process to preclude the reoccurrence of these failures in the future

Gardner, Ben D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Investigation of International Space Station Major Constituent Analyzer Anomalous ORU 02 Performance

The Major Constituent Analyzer (MCA) is a mass spectrometer-based instrument designed to provide critical monitoring of six major atmospheric constituents; nitrogen, oxygen, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor on-board the International Space Station. It is an integral part of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS). The MCA system is comprised of seven orbit-replaceable units (ORUs) that provide flexibility in maintaining the MCA. Of these, ORU 02, the analyzer assembly requires replacement every 1 to 2 years due to the consumption of limited life components including the ion pump and ion source filaments. Typically, ORU 02s that reach end of life are swapped out of the MCA on orbit and replaced with the on-orbit spare. The replaced ORU 02 is then cycled through the OEM for refurbishment and returned to service. Recently, two refurbished ORU 02s, serial numbers F0001 and F0003, failed on orbit shortly after being installed into the MCA. Both ORU 02s were returned to ground for TT&E and a failure investigation. The failure signatures were reproduced on the ground and the investigation determined that both ORU 02 failures involve either the ion source or the ion source control electronics. This paper discusses the results of the failure investigation, the steps required to refurbish the ORU 02s, and the corrective actions that are being incorporated into the build and refurbishment process to preclude the reoccurrence of these failures in the future.

Gardner, Ben D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Joint Lead-Free Solder Test Program for High Reliability Military and Space Applications

Current and future space and defense systems face potential risks from the continued use of tin-lead solder, including: compliance with current environmental regulations, concerns about potential environmental legislation banning lead-containing products, reduced mission readiness, and component obsolescence with lead surface finishes. For example, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has lowered the Toxic Chemical Release reporting threshold for lead to 100 pounds. Overseas, the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) and the Restriction on Hazardous Substances (RoHS) Dicctives in Europe and similar mandates in Japan have instilled concern that a legislative body will prohibit the use of lead in aerospace/military electronics soldering. Any potential banning of lead compounds could reduce the supplier base and adversely affect the readiness of missions led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Before considering lead-free electronics for system upgrades or future designs, however, it is important for the DoD and NASA to know whether lead-free solders can meet their systems' requirements. No single lead-free solder is likely to qualify for all defense and space applications. Therefore, it is important to validate alternative solders for discrete applications. As a result of the need for comprehensive test data on the reliability of lead-free solders, a partnership was formed between the DoD, NASA, and several original equipment manufactures (OEMs) to conduct solder-joint reliability (laboratory) testing of three lead-free solder alloys on newly manufactured and reworked circuit cards to generate performance data for high-reliability (IPC Class 3) applications.

Brown, Christina↗

NASA NTRS2016

Health Monitoring Survey of Bell 412EP Transmissions

Health and usage monitoring systems (HUMS) use vibration-based Condition Indicators (CI) to assess the health of helicopter powertrain components. A fault is detected when a CI exceeds its threshold value. The effectiveness of fault detection can be judged on the basis of assessing the condition of actual components from fleet aircraft. The Bell 412 HUMS-equipped helicopter is chosen for such an evaluation. A sample of 20 aircraft included 12 aircraft with confirmed transmission and gearbox faults (detected by CIs) and eight aircraft with no known faults. The associated CI data is classified into "healthy" and "faulted" populations based on actual condition and these populations are compared against their CI thresholds to quantify the probability of false alarm and the probability of missed detection. Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis is used to optimize thresholds. Based on the results of the analysis, shortcomings in the classification method are identified for slow-moving CI trends. Recommendations for improving classification using time-dependent receiver-operator characteristic methods are put forth. Finally, lessons learned regarding OEM-operator communication are presented.

mechanical components↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cirrus Heterogeneity Effects on Cloud Optical Properties Retrieved with an Optimal Estimation Method from MODIS VIS to TIR Channels.

This study presents preliminary results on the effect of cirrus heterogeneities on top-of-atmosphere (TOA) simulated radiances or reflectances for MODIS channels centered at 0.86, 2.21, 8.56, 11.01 and 12.03 micrometers , and on cloud optical properties retrieved with a research-level optimal estimation method (OEM). Synthetic cirrus cloud fields are generated using a 3D cloud generator (3DCLOUD) and radiances/reflectances are simulated using a 3D radiative transfer code (3DMCPOL). We find significant differences between the heterogeneity effects on either visible and near-infrared (VNIR) or thermal infrared (TIR) radiances. However, when both wavelength ranges are combined, heterogeneity effects are dominated by the VNIR horizontal radiative transport effect. As a result, small optical thicknesses are overestimated and large ones are underestimated. Retrieved effective diameter are found to be slightly affected, contrarily to retrievals using TIR channels only.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2020

UAM Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) UAM Maturity Level (UML) 4

This Vision ConOps is intended as a foundation to engage members of the UAM community and provide a consensus on the future vision of UAM operations. It provides a concept for more detailed discussion and a basis for the exploration of ideas using a common framework to inform the continued development and integration of UAM as part of the broader transportation system. Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) encompasses a range of innovative aviation technologies (small drones, electric aircraft, automated air traffic management, etc.) that are transforming aviation’s role in everyday life, including the movement of goods and people. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft, providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. This concept has generated tremendous interest and industry investment. UAM envisages a future in which advanced technologies and new operational procedures enable practical, cost-effective air travel as an integral mode of transportation in metropolitan areas. It represents one of the most exciting and complex AAM concepts with highly automated aircraft providing commercial services to the public over densely populated cities. For this reason, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) selected UAM as the initial goal of its AAM efforts and the focus of this Vision Concept of Operations (ConOps) document. UAM Community Vision ConOps: This Vision ConOps effort was led by experts from NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Deloitte’s Ecosystem Advisory Group (a cohort of advisers with aviation, aerospace, and regulatory expertise). To develop this Vision ConOps, NASA, FAA, and Deloitte built upon the current body of aeronautical research and consulted with more than 100 stakeholder organizations. This UAM community includes entities ranging from legacy aviation leaders to innovators and new market entrants. Stakeholders consulted included the federal government, state and local government, aerospace original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), local transportation organizations, prospective UAM operators, academia, industry standards-setting bodies, airports, service suppliers, and others (as described in Appendix G). This input was captured through the following methods: • A series of more than two dozen interviews with industry experts, federal regulators, state and local governments, and industry trade groups provided insight into the challenges of UAM integration into the National Airspace System (NAS), as well as technology developments and a variety of perspectives as to how UAM systems will integrate. • A series of two-day community workshops enabling active, detailed engagement of nearly 100 industry, academic, federal, and state stakeholder individuals. These workshops, hosted by NASA and Deloitte, explored UAM concepts in detail, and stakeholders were invited to collaboratively analyze and propose solutions to some of the greatest conceptual challenges behind UAM at an intermediate state. • A review of more than 160 sources of UAM literature from across government, industry, and academia, which are listed in Appendix H. • The public sharing of workshop input and document drafts for review and input across the UAM community. Feedback in the form of more than 1,000 comments and inputs on the document was received from industry groups, individual companies, academia, and government (federal, state, and local), among others. Although effort was made to incorporate inputs from across the UAM stakeholder group, not all comments could ultimately be incorporated in this version. The team resolved conflicting comments or ideas while maintaining consistency with the known direction of regulators and ensuring the document was coherent and consistent. It is recognized that this is a rapidly evolving area and that concepts will likely change over time; as such, this Vision ConOps is a living document and is expected to evolve as concepts mature. The ConOps does, however, provide a vision of UAM concepts and solutions based on the broad insights from across the UAM stakeholder community at the time of its publication and is intended to serve as a UAM North Star for continued research and development of UAM. As a broad Vision ConOps, is not a detailed engineering document; rather, it focuses primarily on outlining a broad, high-level vision across all aspects of a UAM transportation system.

Urban Air Mobility↗